I hope I'm wrong, but I have a really bad feeling about this one... I can't put my finger on it exactly. They are trading something derived from bitcoin, not bitcoin itself. Which means it's fictional which means fractional reserve. It might still have an impact on the real market though... Crypto is a massive clown fiesta after all. CME would not not have any BTC reserve requirements at all? They can facilitate the complete trading of BTC-related contracts without any kinds of BTC reserves, at all? It is financially settled. It works something like this. There is an index which shows the bitcoin price at 5pm on Day X. Anna sells a 1 BTC future for Day X to Bob. That means on Day X, Anna must pay an amount equal to the index price to Bob in US$ on Day X. If everyone thinks that the bitcoin price on Day X will be $10,000 then the price that Anna should charge Bob on the start date for the future should be $10,000 (less time cost of money but we can ignore that). If the bitcoin price goes down further than expected, Anna wins and pays less to Bob. If the bitcoin price goes up more than expected, Anna loses and has to pay more to Bob. This all happens in US$, the only connection to bitcoin is the index price. It is up to Anna to decide whether she wants to hedge her upside exposure by holding real bitcoin. Or she can play bulllshit whale games with the price on crypto exchanges to game the futures market. As an added layer of complication, final settlement occurs on Day X, but every day at 5pm if the price goes up Anna pays Bob the difference, and if the price goes down Bob pays Anna. That means market participants are somewhat protected from volatility because they are only exposed to a single day’s price swing at a time. Where it gets really fucked is the CME will temporarily shut down bitcoin futures trading if the price swings more than 10% in a day to allow the market to cool down (called a trading halt). But the real world isn’t going to stop for the CME meaning market participants will have either have to hold bitcoin to hedge their positions or risk being dangerously exposed and unable to trade. A 10% swing is nothing to crypto so CME is either going to have a lot of trading halts or some whales are going to try to tame bitcoin. Hard to say what will happen. I may not have it exactly right as I have written this in a hurrry and not read the CME rules (ie it might be a 20% swing for a trading halt) but the above principles should hold. |
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I am really wondering then this bullish run is over. Can't grow about 500-1000 USD / month forever ... Though I would like it to keep going for some time  On the other hand: If 2018 is anything like 2017 there will be a couple of more millionairs on the horizon There may be quite a few BTC HODLers who are trying to contemplate very important status definitions, such as how much over one million is required in order to be classified as a "multi-millionaire"? Is it 2 million or 3 million? or is it some other number that would cause such "changed classification?" We have already had HODLers participating in this thread who have been contemplating very important life matters, such as what price would be needed to say "fuck you?" What profound questions we ask here in bitcoinlandia, and in this WO thread, in particular, to the extent that we are not distracted in this thread and in our contemplations by big blocker troll nut jobs and other "bitcoin NOT" wannabes.... hahahahaha No need to say “fuck you” to those left behind. “No thank you” works just as well. |
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So right this split second if you're on the right markets - Bitcoin + BCH + BTG + BTX = $10,200 ish.
Tell me about BTX. Can I still claim it? Sure. How? Sweep to Coinomi? Edit: found the website. Now to make sure it’s not a scam. |
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So right this split second if you're on the right markets - Bitcoin + BCH + BTG + BTX = $10,200 ish.
Tell me about BTX. Can I still claim it? |
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Yes but this will still be people "buying" bitcoin without actually really having any coin, I don't like it They have to buy or sell "actual" bitcoin for the arbitrage to work without risk exposure. If the future says “$20,000” and the current price is “10,000”, people will fall over themselves to sell the future and buy real bitcoins. And market participants are handicapped because they can only buy futures and not the underlying asset. This is one of the few times in history where average speculators have a regulatory enforced edge on Wall Street. But the level of whale games is only going to blow out from here. |
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I am really wondering then this bullish run is over.
Can't grow about 500-1000 USD / month forever ...
True; crawling gets old. It will definitely pick up the pace as we move along. The last two weeks have been a $2k red candle followed by a $2k green candle. Just let that sink in for a moment. |
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Regulatory approval is not going to be easy. If the CME application is declined, I expect an immediate and significant market reaction. Be safe out there. |
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I need two more years like 2017. And I think I’m going to get them.  |
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8500$ this week
7500$ this week Why not both? Jimbo: I don’t disagree. It’s a message I need to hear. I am slowly working my BTC balance up through trading after modest profit taking. |
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Not sure why but seeing the price over $8k I remember back to the time I shorted bitcoin at $2.50.
We hates you. Envy not hate. Me too.  Full credit for having the vision and sticking to it through some long dark years. I bought some AEON today for $2.45. Maybe if I hang onto that for 10 years it will also be worth $8k. It’s a Monero fork, equivalent to Litecoin. |
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Not sure why but seeing the price over $8k I remember back to the time I shorted bitcoin at $2.50.
We hates you. |
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No worries, word on the streets is that Roger is gonna review in person Bitfinex' books soonish...
Oh gawd I follow Ver on Twitter solely so I can dump whatever he is touting. |
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I did indeed, then i invested in siacoin and syscoin from next to nothing. did quite well  Congratulations I'm sure. In other news, I think I'm gonna try to dump bgold tomorrow. I think it might be shit and dying. Thoughts? Don’t. It’s too early. The next time Bitcoin has huge drop at least some people will run to Bgold. It will then start developing a following. I think we need to be patient and give it time. I sold my Bcash too early and could have earned more. |
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I must have forgotten to save the link to the tracking of coinbase user accounts. I think it was Torque who posted it. Anyone kind enough to share it again.
Hey man! Yeah, they have a tally right on their home page, just scroll down a bit where it says "customers served". Currently at 12.8M accounts. It looks like they added ~400K accounts in just about the past week or two. I'm hoping they can average ~1M new accounts per month all through next year. Thanks, you had found and posted a historical chart as well. Was hoping to see this to get an idea of user adoption on a time scale. If you don't have it saved, I'll just scroll through your posts for the past month or so. Here's the only one I've seen. I'm not sure where you can find a live updated version.  Thanks. Now to work out if it is leading or lagging. |
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Beware of Bitfinex!
I had withdrawn everything from them weeks ago. The writings on the wall...
But still hat to use them to buy Iota (what I recommend to everybody though).
My last Iota withdrawals are still pending, more than 5 hours from approval. Iota transactions are instant.
I have opened a support ticket etc. No reply, of course.
I recommend everybody to withdraw everything from Bitfinex, if still possible!!
I have to say, the populist campaign against Bitfinex and Tether smells the same as the Bitcoin Cash “flippening” event the previous weekend and the failed Segwit 2X fork this weekend. I am predicting a massive DDOS attack against BFX this coming weekend (or similar attack). I also note that I withdrew some BTC from Bitfinex yesterday and it cleared on the first block mined. |
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I must have forgotten to save the link to the tracking of coinbase user accounts. I think it was Torque who posted it. Anyone kind enough to share it again.
Hey man! Yeah, they have a tally right on their home page, just scroll down a bit where it says "customers served". Currently at 12.8M accounts. It looks like they added ~400K accounts in just about the past week or two. I'm hoping they can average ~1M new accounts per month all through next year. Thanks, you had found and posted a historical chart as well. Was hoping to see this to get an idea of user adoption on a time scale. If you don't have it saved, I'll just scroll through your posts for the past month or so. I would love to see a chart of downloads vs price. |
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So far this year since July bitcoin price has stayed within the channels of this pitchfork drawn on a log scale chart:
The trend lines suggest a mid-term top around $9000 followed by a correction back to $7500. Price could also correct back the the mid-line at $6500. Where it gets interesting is if price breaks through the top trend line. Also something to keep in mind is January tends to be a down month, so I am expecting a rally into middle of December then some profit taking.
I cringe whenever someone talks about profit taking in regards to exchanging bitcoin for fiat. Bitcoin is not a stock. I don't know how people sleep at night with their money in fiat. I cashed out my original investment out when it had gone 10x, leaving me with 90% of my portfolio. I have also diversified into other leading currency cryptos (none of that ICO garbage). So my current portfolio is now 85% bitcoin, 13% bitcoin competitors (including some longshots) and 2% USD on exchanges. I also split my holdings across multiple exchanges to reduce counterparty risk for stuff that is not on hard wallet. I sleep a hell of a lot better at night knowing that I am defensively hedged. Yes - it could cost me millions in the long run but insurance is expensive. You hope you never have to use it but, but it is there just in case. |
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I've posted this before. I wonder how it is possible for anyone who has read the official Bitcoin Cash's "Letter from the CEO" (link below), to keep supporting this joke of a coin... https://www.bitcoincash.org/letter-from-the-ceo.pdfIt's mind-boggling to say the least. But then again, the brain is a complicated organ, that can often fail and make someone do all sort of weird things. "Live your own fantasy" as they say...  Haven’t seen that before. Doesn’t change my opinion of them though (pack of lunatics). |
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