I confess I understand his fascination for Grin. Mind you, he is also a moderate fan of a certain other coin... And i thought Grin won't launch it's mainnet anytime soon. But looks like the client is far from user-friendly and only mid-high end GPU can mine GRIN for now.
Any chance you'll accept another cryptocurrency (XMR, ETH or perhaps DOGE) soon?
XMR is possible, but probably not the others. We aren't written off yet, then  |
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So he said 'Bitcoin will bite the dust' in 2015. Now he says 'Bitcoin will still bite the dust' in 2019. Bullish. |
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tyvm 4 the merits, guys  Grin prices so far 24h Low / 24h High $81.75 / $261.65 Saw that on CoinGecko - but 'zero' volume is listed... Are they pre-order prices on an exchange? maybe refresh? Trading Volume $7,471.83 no, there was some of that going on before, but this is real volume. most of the trade though so far has been otc. been watching deals https://gitter.im/grin_community/Lobby similar prices Yep, got it - will check OTC too, thanks! |
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tyvm 4 the merits, guys Grin prices so far 24h Low / 24h High $81.75 / $261.65 Saw that on CoinGecko - but 'zero' volume is listed... Are they pre-order prices on an exchange? |
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Nice one - interesting read! I don't doubt that it will be one big flop. I don't see how this is going to work without a nearsighted plan. The first few hitting an exchange for sale will probably do a mini Zcash start (silly price, then down). However, this is a long-anticipated totally new tech and is already of interest - it's not an ICO, not dependent on a system or corporation to exist, no premine, with a bunch of enthusiastic, smart devs. So it's idealistic enough for purists, interesting enough for speculators and is one of the more watchable launches if nothing else. Time will tell. |
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Nice one - interesting read! |
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Repost of a classic chart (source unknown):  Leading up to halving price starts to move. Maybe it's different this time. Looks different.. It has hit the '3000 in October 2019' level way earlier than that chart shows. So 2023 looks pessimistic, but we will find out in time. I think the price will be significantly above where we are now by autumn this year. No ATH, but higher by a good deal. New ATH? Sometime between late 2020 and late 2021, if the relationship to the halving and the roughly four year cycle holds. YMMV. |
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I don’t know that you could port Bitcoin onto Grin. So it is a threat. But their monetary policy is fuxxed. Big mistake having an endless emissions. Same trap Monero fell into. So that significantly reduces the threat. MW can be implemented on a second layer or as a sidechain with BTC I believe. So, how many grins will ever be made? Currently set to 50 per 60 seconds (it was going to be 60/m, but I think they finalised at 50/m). That is not designed to change. So it's infinite. |
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I don’t know that you could port Bitcoin onto Grin. So it is a threat. But their monetary policy is fuxxed. Big mistake having an endless emissions. Same trap Monero fell into. So that significantly reduces the threat. Been watching the Grin Github devs' feed for months and was actually relieved to see the genesis block was today (finally), so not long to find out how it fits in. I think the endless constant emission design was a surprise (negative one IMHO) but not at all like Monero's tail emission - which is by contrast a minimal amount, far less than lost coins would be and it's arguably possible it 'may' prove to secure the network long term as a miner incentive that other POW projects lack. Grin seems not to want to even scale down at all. We will have to see if this is fatal, but whatever the case for Grin, I personally don't think Monero's is comparable. As for if it takes away from Monero's position as the only credible privacy coin - I don't know. If it becomes an optional side chain tech for Bitcoin, then maybe Monero is safe with a role as a stand-alone tech with a use case. Disclosure: I should admit I have been trying to mine Grin today, but to my great shame I am hopeless at CLI stuff and have given up after syncing the miner to the chain but not being able to work out how to make the damn thing actually mine. This is of course due to a level of incompetence in command line stuff that most here would no doubt find astounding. |
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firing into the ground can ricochet or create a spray of spall depending on what it hits. not good when its near you.
when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you. also the direction i fire in is literally square miles of woods. no houses at all. so i fire maybe 10 degree from vertical in that direction.
A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago. I've seen news articles too of (unintended) casualties from kalashnikovs being fired straight into the air in celebration in the middle east. air resistance will be the limiting factor. i am unsure of the actual speed, depends on the bullet weight and size. i do know people who have been hit by falling birdshot (myself included, i do a lot of skeet shooting) and its nothing. but those pellets are smaller. those kalashnikovs fire a heavy bullet. but were they indeed fire straight up? ive seen most fired maybe 30-40 degrees from vertical but thats just what i see on the news. not doubting you but all it takes is a slightly more horizontal trajectory and it will still have a lot of energy when the bullet hits the ground, as it wouldnt of expended its initial energy gaining altitude. It seems you are right to feel some caution: https://science.howstuffworks.com/fire--bullet-straight-up-how-high-does-it-go.htm'deaths not uncommon' |
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One point of clarification - I was referring to 14 January in 2015 being the bottom for the prior crypto winter, so if we follow the template we have passed the point of most danger for this year.
But yes agree that if the template holds then $3122 was the bottom for 2018 - 19 crypto winter. Which I am very pleased I bought - if only a little bit because god it felt like shit at the time.
The theory here is that we are slightly front running our previous cryptowinter, so I think we are closely aligned in our analysis.
Do we dare call a bottom to this cryptowinter? Let’s see what next week brings.
But I think we can start establishing a tentative hypothesis that the 2018/19 winter bottomed at $3122. We still have at least 6 months of sideways chop ahead of us. We can still retest the 200 weekly MA as it is rising all the time without breaking $3122 so long as we only test it lightly. 200 Weekly MA is now at $3250 so that support line is gently rising.
Oops - my bad, apologies Hairy. Was not fully concentrating as I am not alone with my screen today. Yes, it was the low of '15 and the end of the bear cycle, too. A couple of weeks back Danndann of this parish kindly pointed me to a post I made back then. I rarely predict, it is usually stupid to try: Buy or die.
Have been. Admittedly my investment is under water as a whole (I never bought at under $45, too late in for that) but buying at these price has averaged down massively. I am happy, I believe capitulation has happened, bar some settling fluctuations, I personally think on balance the downtrend is over. That was 24 hours before the final dip. Anyway.... I agree we may end up with egg on our faces, but I reckon it's a fair call and the balance of probability suggests it's looking likely the bottom is in - a little earlier for the overlay, yes - but for me it makes sense to see the mid-Jan (12th-14th) price as the Rubicon we had to cross, due to its history as the annual low in past years - except after blow off tops. And following logically from that, if this normal 'annual low point' was higher than the Dec low, I reckon it does offer credence to thinking the bottom is behind us. Here's hopin' |
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Bitcoin bottomed around 0400 hours GMT on 14 January 2015.
We are now past that time in this cycle. If the fractal holds, we have bottomed.
I just bought again.
I agree with your conclusion, but on one minor point, the absolute bottom of the cycle was the probably the low on Dec 15 (3122 on Stamp). That said if the Jan 14th proves to be the lowest point this year, you are correct in the thrust of what you say - that the turning point has been reached. It was certainly the point to look out for and pass by. I do agree with you, as you know and am glad to see your (superior) TA-based analysis confirms my own feelings and crude trend calculations. I have also been buying, cancelling my low-ball bids and transferring in all available fiat to mop up what I can before the end of Jan. It will not be significantly profitable in the short term, although I do think going over 10K before the end of this year is actually very possible (by early November, to stick my neck out). All this is based on rough overlays of 2015 to now, which have thus far proved sufficiently close to be worth betting on. November '15 saw a spike up to over 3x the January low that year, but it was a choppy ride to there, see charts for details. I doubt we will see an exact overlay, as if it gets any closer it will be front run, or disrupted. But so far...? DYOR. |
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Welcome to the visible side of the forum! - How long have you been reading the WO? Do you think we are all crazy or just a few of us? - Are you bullish or bearish? - Hodler since 2012? I'll start with those three  Hi Bitserve - thank you, but you've been here a long time as well. - I think there's actually very little craziness, but an awful lot of would-be manipulation. Seems clear to me, for example, that our pet Nazi is trying to disrupt and scare off contributions much like the grandad porn of NLC did. - long term very bullish, short term doesn't matter. - yes May I add my late welcome too? Props to GentlemanD, too - your siren call worked! |
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This is something I ponder on and off. That 1-3% figure is pretty far out. I'll bet there are people who've been reading this thread for longer than most of us have been here who've never even registered, let alone written anything. I'm sure it's easy to be intimidated by the astonishing power and paint-stripping insight of titanic intellects such as the one I happen to possess. I still think they should make themselves known. We need a lurker amnesty. Come on out. We won't hurt you.* *much |
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if you only had a window into price in $ and NOTHING else, it would be an insufficient info, obviously.
...
Yes...and $$ inflation highlights just one example in which the future price snapshot has little value. Say also that you find out the price on date x would be $200. What action can you take right now ? How can you know if the structure of BTC will be the same ? How can you know what fork can have happened, and whether consensus has changed the issuance of units ? What if the price was $20000 just a few months after your chosen date, for unknown technical reasons ? ..and that is just the guesses we can make. How about the unknown unknowns ? You're right in many respects of course, but I still think it would be well worth 10 BTC to know the price on a given date over two years ahead. Would you turn down the chance? |
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if we where in SCI-FI
and there is an offer to watch 1 day in the future (whenever day you wish, just to see where BTC stands)
how much would you offer to pay for that and how far would you wanna look ?
10 Bitcoin for December 2021. thats a ver reasonable pick and depending on one's HODL, I guess it may cost very very much of it in %'s of that HODL amount I have been enjoying a very good evening of fine wines, so I enjoyed the fun of you prompting some fantasy crystal ball thinking. I should probably think of paying more, but what holds me back is the (not necessarily rational) view that if the result showed that the price was around what it is now, I might kick myself. If I found out for sure it was going to be as high as I expect, it would be amazingly cheap foreknowledge, a fantastic opportunity. I'd simply sell all the liquid assets I have, borrow to the hilt and buy WAY more than I already am right now. Who wouldn't? To be honest, this week I have already started buying. Certainty would be the only thing that would increase it, as I have already started buying what some might deem reckless amounts. Within a couple of weeks I should have all all the BTC back I sold in Dec '17 and some. This is a risk/ benefit assessment based upon my gut feeling - which has more often than not been a good idea, as it is the same gut feeling that got me into Bitcoin in the first place. However, it is not a guaranteed thing. Knowing it was 'a cert' would mean an insane frenzy of buying all I possibly could. Of course |
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Today in Krakow
Tomorrow trip to Auschwitz
Thinking about Roach
Been there and it's sobering. I did it so I could look fucks like roach in the eye and say 'have you even been?'.
The banality of evil is the truth... and good men saying nothing is what allows it to prosper. |
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if we where in SCI-FI
and there is an offer to watch 1 day in the future (whenever day you wish, just to see where BTC stands)
how much would you offer to pay for that and how far would you wanna look ?
10 Bitcoin for December 2021. |
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Hi MIc!
3850 please? Don't change dude - you're a star!
kurious
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Once again picture that really does say it all. I can't help wondering if you do anything else but trawl the interweb all bloody day to mine this stream of news and meme treasure? I am more than a little awed... There should be a sort of OBE for services to the WO. |
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