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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21293498 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
mOgliE
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January 15, 2019, 01:26:34 PM

I'm a little bit ashamed at myself at how horrible I am at prognosticating anything crypto-related, but the current issues with ETH, overall, has led me the seriously ponder; "Is ETH truly and honestly dead, and it just doesn't know it yet ?"

I can't see how it survives 2019 without plunging to at least half it's current valuation.

It almost feels like all the individual elements that have plagued ETH over the last couple years, have recently come together, and left it teetering on the edge of being declared a failed project.

The fact that it's nigh-impossible for the average joe to run a full, modern ETH node is a catastrophic oversight in retrospect.

Nah.

I'd say ETH is BTC-like right now.

BTC can't die because that's the entry gate to any crypto related project. For BTC to die it means all altcoins must die first.

ETH can't die because it's the baseground of all the shitcoin ICO projects. And there is too much potential (appart from all the stormshit) for it to die.

You have few coins that have any use, BTC and ETH are some of them.
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January 15, 2019, 01:30:13 PM

yup it is. i own 13 acres, all woods. my firing range has a nice hill for a backstop. outside of that i wont fire unless i absolutely have identified the target and i consider it an immediate threat. although i have fired into the air when the occasional wild dog or such shows too much interest in me or the wife.

all in all its mainly a lot of practice rounds to keep my skills honed.
Firing in the air always bothered me. It has to come down, possibly on top of someone. Why not fire into the ground?

firing into the ground can ricochet or create a spray of spall depending on what it hits. not good when its near you.

when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you. also the direction i fire in is literally square miles of woods. no houses at all. so i fire maybe 10 degree from vertical in that direction.



A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago. I've seen news articles too of (unintended) casualties from kalashnikovs being fired straight into the air in celebration in the middle east.
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January 15, 2019, 01:31:06 PM

Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.
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January 15, 2019, 01:32:31 PM

I'm a little bit ashamed at myself at how horrible I am at prognosticating anything crypto-related, but the current issues with ETH, overall, has led me the seriously ponder; "Is ETH truly and honestly dead, and it just doesn't know it yet ?"

I can't see how it survives 2019 without plunging to at least half it's current valuation.

It almost feels like all the individual elements that have plagued ETH over the last couple years, have recently come together, and left it teetering on the edge of being declared a failed project.

The fact that it's nigh-impossible for the average joe to run a full, modern ETH node is a catastrophic oversight in retrospect.

Nah.

I'd say ETH is BTC-like right now.

BTC can't die because that's the entry gate to any crypto related project. For BTC to die it means all altcoins must die first.

ETH can't die because it's the baseground of all the shitcoin ICO projects. And there is too much potential (appart from all the stormshit) for it to die.

You have few coins that have any use, BTC and ETH are some of them.

So first all ICO crap dies followed by ETH. How is that impossible?
vapourminer
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January 15, 2019, 01:41:17 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC.

yeah once the silk road stack was auctioned by the government that was a big turning point. the government destroys seized evidence it considers illegal ie look at all the drugs destroyed by burning etc. by auctioning it i knew it was legit then.

dunno about you but back in the day when btc was a few bucks i threw it around like popcorn. just testing various wallets on different computers and to and from exchanges just to see how it worked. ive lost some coins by mistakes, some by forgetting about them. it was never a large percentage of course, but the amount ive lost would be worth a good amount today. but that was very early on when it was unknown if it would even survive.

if i had known what it would eventually be valued at i would of course been more careful, as i am now. back then in my wildest dreams i would never even of though it would hit 20k a coin. and i would of just laughed at anyone that said that. back in 2011-2012? pffft. coins were just things to play with.

EDIT: i mined my coins starting in 2011, didnt buy them. might be a reason i didnt value them much as i didnt pay money for them. just a byproduct of my gpus.
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January 15, 2019, 01:54:37 PM

I've seen news articles too of (unintended) casualties from kalashnikovs being fired straight into the air in celebration in the middle east.

https://twitter.com/gissisim/status/1069343819081105408?lang=en

Smiley
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January 15, 2019, 01:57:31 PM

Cryptopia's the first exchange of 2019 to get hacked.

https://twitter.com/Cryptopia_NZ/status/1085084168852291586


This is why I never keep any money on exchanges, thanks Wall Observer for pointing this out time and time again!

vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 15, 2019, 02:02:41 PM

firing into the ground can ricochet or create a spray of spall depending on what it hits. not good when its near you.

when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you. also the direction i fire in is literally square miles of woods. no houses at all. so i fire maybe 10 degree from vertical in that direction.

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago. I've seen news articles too of (unintended) casualties from kalashnikovs being fired straight into the air in celebration in the middle east.

air resistance will be the limiting factor. i am unsure of the actual speed, depends on the bullet weight and size. i do know people who have been hit by falling birdshot (myself included, i do a lot of skeet shooting) and its nothing. but those pellets are smaller.

those kalashnikovs fire a heavy bullet. but were they indeed fire straight up? ive seen most fired maybe 30-40 degrees from vertical but thats just what i see on the news. not doubting you but all it takes is a slightly more horizontal trajectory and it will still have a lot of energy when the bullet hits the ground, as it wouldnt of expended its initial energy gaining altitude.
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January 15, 2019, 02:07:40 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

So first all ICO crap dies followed by ETH. How is that impossible?

ICO are far too good as a concept to die.

That most of them are pure shit is irrelevant.

In theory they're so good as a concept that everytime one falls down, 2 others will rise.
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 15, 2019, 02:09:13 PM


lol yup you can tell hes had extensive weapons training. i wonder what was downrange while he was firing at that 45 degree angle..
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January 15, 2019, 02:15:45 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

firing into the ground can ricochet or create a spray of spall depending on what it hits. not good when its near you.

when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you. also the direction i fire in is literally square miles of woods. no houses at all. so i fire maybe 10 degree from vertical in that direction.

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago. I've seen news articles too of (unintended) casualties from kalashnikovs being fired straight into the air in celebration in the middle east.

air resistance will be the limiting factor. i am unsure of the actual speed, depends on the bullet weight and size. i do know people who have been hit by falling birdshot (myself included, i do a lot of skeet shooting) and its nothing. but those pellets are smaller.

those kalashnikovs fire a heavy bullet. but were they indeed fire straight up? ive seen most fired maybe 30-40 degrees from vertical but thats just what i see on the news. not doubting you but all it takes is a slightly more horizontal trajectory and it will still have a lot of energy when the bullet hits the ground, as it wouldnt of expended its initial energy gaining altitude.

It seems you are right to feel some caution:

https://science.howstuffworks.com/fire--bullet-straight-up-how-high-does-it-go.htm

'deaths not uncommon'
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January 15, 2019, 02:33:28 PM

How can you say this Huh



Source:

https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1085115366508883968
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January 15, 2019, 02:38:12 PM


Dumbest thing I've seen today.

Storing coins means storing your keys. If you do that, your computer can break, USB lost, 6 times if you want. You'll still have your coins.
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January 15, 2019, 02:39:19 PM

Just another worthless cloud shill. I always like the people who go on about how "secure" the cloud is. Sun used to go on about "One arrow, one target" while those of us in the know called it "one egg, one basket".

Eh, whatever. Another case of blame someone else for failure.
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 15, 2019, 02:41:32 PM

air resistance will be the limiting factor. i am unsure of the actual speed, depends on the bullet weight and size. i do know people who have been hit by falling birdshot (myself included, i do a lot of skeet shooting) and its nothing. but those pellets are smaller.

those kalashnikovs fire a heavy bullet. but were they indeed fire straight up? ive seen most fired maybe 30-40 degrees from vertical but thats just what i see on the news. not doubting you but all it takes is a slightly more horizontal trajectory and it will still have a lot of energy when the bullet hits the ground, as it wouldnt of expended its initial energy gaining altitude.

It seems you are right to feel some caution:

https://science.howstuffworks.com/fire--bullet-straight-up-how-high-does-it-go.htm

'deaths not uncommon'

interesting info, thanks for the link (i followed a couple more from that one too).

kalashnikovs are the goto weapon for large parts of the world, and they do back a wallop with a heavy bullet. getting hit with a heavy bullet that size would not be pleasant at all.

i mainly carry a handgun in the woods and thats what i would be firing in the air as a warning shot for the wild dogs and such. and even though i know its miles of woods i think i will at least consider trying to fire into a tree from now on. its just habit to never, ever fire a round with no real target as if i miss the tree that bullet can go a long way. and while there should be no one in my woods.. still..



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January 15, 2019, 02:42:21 PM
Merited by gentlemand (1)


Dumbest thing I've seen today.

Storing coins means storing your keys. If you do that, your computer can break, USB lost, 6 times if you want. You'll still have your coins.

I’d rather have my private keys engraved on a 12 inch metal dildo & implanted in my rectum for 23 hours a day, only taking it out to shit before putting it back in than have my bitcoin’s on any exchange.
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January 15, 2019, 02:45:11 PM

I’d rather have my private keys engraved on a 12 inch metal dildo & implanted in my rectum for 23 hours a day, only taking it out to shit before putting it back in than have my bitcoin’s on any exchange.

Mind you that if you une half inch high words you can store 2 wallets on your dildo.

It's even more efficient than an exchange.
VB1001
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January 15, 2019, 02:45:25 PM

yup it is. i own 13 acres, all woods. my firing range has a nice hill for a backstop. outside of that i wont fire unless i absolutely have identified the target and i consider it an immediate threat. although i have fired into the air when the occasional wild dog or such shows too much interest in me or the wife.

all in all its mainly a lot of practice rounds to keep my skills honed.
Firing in the air always bothered me. It has to come down, possibly on top of someone. Why not fire into the ground?

firing into the ground can ricochet or create a spray of spall depending on what it hits. not good when its near you.

when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you. also the direction i fire in is literally square miles of woods. no houses at all. so i fire maybe 10 degree from vertical in that direction.

13 acres !!!, you can practice many types of shooting. Wink
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January 15, 2019, 02:48:34 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

I’d rather have my private keys engraved on a 12 inch metal dildo & implanted in my rectum for 23 hours a day, only taking it out to shit before putting it back in than have my bitcoin’s on any exchange.

That's another type of security risk.

VB1001
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January 15, 2019, 02:51:43 PM

^ It looks like Zappa.
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