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Question: Among your family and friends, who owns Bitcoin?
Myself only - 30 (31.9%)
Myself and my spouse/partner - 11 (11.7%)
My family - 10 (10.6%)
Close friends - 14 (14.9%)
All of the above - 29 (30.9%)
Total Voters: 94

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25285280 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
kurious
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January 13, 2019, 10:49:39 PM
Merited by Globb0 (2)

if we where in SCI-FI

and there is an offer to watch 1 day in the future (whenever day you wish, just to see where BTC stands)

how much would you offer to pay for that and how far would you wanna look ?


10 Bitcoin for December 2021.

thats a ver reasonable pick
and depending on one's HODL, I guess it may cost very very much of it in %'s of that HODL amount
Wink

I have been enjoying a very good evening of fine wines, so I enjoyed the fun of you prompting some fantasy crystal ball thinking.

I should probably think of paying more, but what holds me back is the (not necessarily rational) view that if the result showed that the price was around what it is now, I might kick myself.  

If I found out for sure it was going to be as high as I expect, it would be amazingly cheap foreknowledge, a fantastic opportunity.  I'd simply sell all the liquid assets I have, borrow to the hilt and buy WAY more than I already am right now. Who wouldn't?

To be honest, this week I have already started buying.  Certainty would be the only thing that would increase it, as I have already started buying what some might deem reckless amounts.  Within a couple of weeks I should have all all the BTC back I sold in Dec '17 and some. This is a risk/ benefit assessment based upon my gut feeling - which has more often than not been a good idea, as it is the same gut feeling that got me into Bitcoin in the first place. However, it is not a guaranteed thing.  

Knowing it was 'a cert' would mean an insane frenzy of buying all I possibly could. Of course Wink
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Biodom
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January 13, 2019, 10:50:51 PM
Last edit: January 13, 2019, 11:07:29 PM by Biodom

if we where in SCI-FI

and there is an offer to watch 1 day in the future (whenever day you wish, just to see where BTC stands)

how much would you offer to pay for that and how far would you wanna look ?

Maybe i already did; here it is (for free):

I saw bitcoin at $605,000 in 2029

The setup of my "time machine"

The number of people in US with wealth over $5 mil (5-millionares) is increasing (1997-2015) at 11.35% a year.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/300451/us-millionaire-households/
Assuming the same rate of increase between 2015 and 2019, there are about 2.09 mil 5-millionares in US now and 5.067 mil in the world (US seems to be at around 41% roughly).
It is unlikely that btc would cause statistically significant increase in total number of 5-millionares, therefore the variation from the expected number should not differ by more than 5%.
In 2029 the total number of 5-millionares is expected to be 14.847 mil with 6.135 mil in US.
A 5% variation from 14.847 is 0.74mil. Therefore, not more than 0.74 mil btc owners would be 5-millionares.
It is fair to assume that btc-derived 5-millionares would have the vast majority of their wealth from btc alone, otherwise they would be in the regular 95%.
The statistics below suggest that about 0.75 mil btc owners have minimally 7.44 btc
https://medium.com/@BambouClub/are-you-in-the-bitcoin-1-a-new-model-of-the-distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-6adb0d4a6a95

Therefore, assuming that 90% of btc-owners wealth come from btc and not more than 5% of global 5-millionares would come from btc wealth in 2029,
the numbers indicate $4.5 mil value (90% of 5 mil) for 7.44 btc, making it about $605,000/btc.


Loved your analysis. I'll have another drag of that hopium bong please!
....paf pif pang wang....


you forgot to look at the starting line of discussion.
it starts: "If we were in sci-fi..."
The rest follows.
Kapish?
Just a nice playful weekend spirit, sorry.
Biodom
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January 13, 2019, 11:06:05 PM

What are the hats in aid of?

To some, hats epitomize the reverse-(sans-culottes) of the 21 century...
To others, it's like a club.
To the rest, it is just a fun meme.

Make a choice of what it is to you.
jojo69
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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January 13, 2019, 11:07:37 PM

Aaaaaaaand...

the girl's car takes a shit

fml
El duderino_
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January 13, 2019, 11:10:01 PM

if we where in SCI-FI

and there is an offer to watch 1 day in the future (whenever day you wish, just to see where BTC stands)

how much would you offer to pay for that and how far would you wanna look ?


10 Bitcoin for December 2021.

thats a ver reasonable pick
and depending on one's HODL, I guess it may cost very very much of it in %'s of that HODL amount
Wink

I have been enjoying a very good evening of fine wines, so I enjoyed the fun of you prompting some fantasy crystal ball thinking.

I should probably think of paying more, but what holds me back is the (not necessarily rational) view that if the result showed that the price was around what it is now, I might kick myself.  

If I found out for sure it was going to be as high as I expect, it would be amazingly cheap foreknowledge, a fantastic opportunity.  I'd simply sell all the liquid assets I have, borrow to the hilt and buy WAY more than I already am right now. Who wouldn't?

To be honest, this week I have already started buying.  Certainty would be the only thing that would increase it, as I have already started buying what some might deem reckless amounts.  Within a couple of weeks I should have all all the BTC back I sold in Dec '17 and some. This is a risk/ benefit assessment based upon my gut feeling - which has more often than not been a good idea, as it is the same gut feeling that got me into Bitcoin in the first place. However, it is not a guaranteed thing.  

Knowing it was 'a cert' would mean an insane frenzy of buying all I possibly could. Of course Wink

On good WINES everybody can think very very clear
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January 13, 2019, 11:11:14 PM

What are the hats in aid of?

To some, hats epitomize the reverse-(sans-culottes) of the 21 century...
To others, it's like a club.
To the rest, it is just a fun meme.

Make a choice of what it is to you.
Or the true answer, its the pin on our digital jacket showing that we belong to a secret society, full of knowledge of the future whale movements, we are all insanely rich and manipulative.

Psych, we all just shitpost in here a lot while losing money.
Hueristic
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Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


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January 13, 2019, 11:12:54 PM

Doing cleaning.

Google Reportedly Blacklists Ethereum as a Google Ad Keyword, Startup Claims



https://cointelegraph.com/news/google-reportedly-blacklists-ethereum-as-a-google-ad-keyword-startup-claims

About time they blocked scamcoin shilling! Cheesy
Biodom
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January 13, 2019, 11:17:10 PM
Merited by Majormax (1)

if we where in SCI-FI

and there is an offer to watch 1 day in the future (whenever day you wish, just to see where BTC stands)

how much would you offer to pay for that and how far would you wanna look ?


10 Bitcoin for December 2021.

thats a ver reasonable pick
and depending on one's HODL, I guess it may cost very very much of it in %'s of that HODL amount
Wink

..I enjoyed the fun of you prompting some fantasy crystal ball thinking.

I should probably think of paying more, but what holds me back is the (not necessarily rational) view that if the result showed that the price was around what it is now, I might kick myself.  

If I found out for sure it was going to be as high as I expect, it would be amazingly cheap foreknowledge, a fantastic opportunity.  I'd simply sell all the liquid assets I have, borrow to the hilt and buy WAY more than I already am right now. Who wouldn't?

To be honest, this week I have already started buying.  Certainty would be the only thing that would increase it, as I have already started buying what some might deem reckless amounts.  Within a couple of weeks I should have all all the BTC back I sold in Dec '17 and some. This is a risk/ benefit assessment based upon my gut feeling - which has more often than not been a good idea, as it is the same gut feeling that got me into Bitcoin in the first place. However, it is not a guaranteed thing.  

Knowing it was 'a cert' would mean an insane frenzy of buying all I possibly could. Of course Wink

if you only had a window into price in $ and NOTHING else, it would be an insufficient info, obviously.
After all, people of Zimbabwe are not the richest, yet at some point each had hundreds of trillions or more of their $$.
Nothing like this would happen in US, but it just shows that you need to compare $ values to the prices of goods.
BTC never went to a price of the typical US/EU house. Will it? I would probably answer in the affirmative.
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January 13, 2019, 11:27:24 PM

if we where in SCI-FI

and there is an offer to watch 1 day in the future (whenever day you wish, just to see where BTC stands)

how much would you offer to pay for that and how far would you wanna look ?


10 Bitcoin for December 2021.

thats a ver reasonable pick
and depending on one's HODL, I guess it may cost very very much of it in %'s of that HODL amount
Wink

..I enjoyed the fun of you prompting some fantasy crystal ball thinking.

I should probably think of paying more, but what holds me back is the (not necessarily rational) view that if the result showed that the price was around what it is now, I might kick myself.  

If I found out for sure it was going to be as high as I expect, it would be amazingly cheap foreknowledge, a fantastic opportunity.  I'd simply sell all the liquid assets I have, borrow to the hilt and buy WAY more than I already am right now. Who wouldn't?

To be honest, this week I have already started buying.  Certainty would be the only thing that would increase it, as I have already started buying what some might deem reckless amounts.  Within a couple of weeks I should have all all the BTC back I sold in Dec '17 and some. This is a risk/ benefit assessment based upon my gut feeling - which has more often than not been a good idea, as it is the same gut feeling that got me into Bitcoin in the first place. However, it is not a guaranteed thing.  

Knowing it was 'a cert' would mean an insane frenzy of buying all I possibly could. Of course Wink

if you only had a window into price in $ and NOTHING else, it would be an insufficient info, obviously.
After all, people of Zimbabwe are not the richest, yet at some point each had hundreds of trillions or more of their $$.
Nothing like this would happen in US, but it just shows that you need to compare $ values to the prices of goods.
BTC never went to a price of the typical US/EU house. Will it? I would probably answer in the affirmative.

I was also thinking similarly to this, why do we continually subject the price of BTC in terms of a failing and inflated fiat measure? The better comparison would be compared to a commodity that isn't largely manipulated (not PMs either), there must be some sort of item that could reflect the true value of BTC as it compares to another medium of exchange.
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This is not OK.


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January 13, 2019, 11:32:34 PM

call me crazy but I believe over next 72 hours we will test 3200 or come close again to it. then from there we will have an epic rise again. ETH hardfork could be the catalyst to change things over next 3 days.

Next 24 hours are crucial!

'Critical', they're 'critical'.
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January 13, 2019, 11:43:42 PM

if we where in SCI-FI

and there is an offer to watch 1 day in the future (whenever day you wish, just to see where BTC stands)

how much would you offer to pay for that and how far would you wanna look ?

Maybe i already did; here it is (for free):

I saw bitcoin at $605,000 in 2029

The setup of my "time machine"

The number of people in US with wealth over $5 mil (5-millionares) is increasing (1997-2015) at 11.35% a year.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/300451/us-millionaire-households/
Assuming the same rate of increase between 2015 and 2019, there are about 2.09 mil 5-millionares in US now and 5.067 mil in the world (US seems to be at around 41% roughly).
It is unlikely that btc would cause statistically significant increase in total number of 5-millionares, therefore the variation from the expected number should not differ by more than 5%.
In 2029 the total number of 5-millionares is expected to be 14.847 mil with 6.135 mil in US.
A 5% variation from 14.847 is 0.74mil. Therefore, not more than 0.74 mil btc owners would be 5-millionares.
It is fair to assume that btc-derived 5-millionares would have the vast majority of their wealth from btc alone, otherwise they would be in the regular 95%.
The statistics below suggest that about 0.75 mil btc owners have minimally 7.44 btc
https://medium.com/@BambouClub/are-you-in-the-bitcoin-1-a-new-model-of-the-distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-6adb0d4a6a95

Therefore, assuming that 90% of btc-owners wealth come from btc and not more than 5% of global 5-millionares would come from btc wealth in 2029,
the numbers indicate $4.5 mil value (90% of 5 mil) for 7.44 btc, making it about $605,000/btc.


Loved your analysis. I'll have another drag of that hopium bong please!
....paf pif pang wang....


you forgot to look at the starting line of discussion.
it starts: "If we were in sci-fi..."
The rest follows.
Kapish?
Just a nice playful weekend spirit, sorry.

How is so? How did I "forget" when I agreed that the price sounds about right? And bullish-ed even more after.
You totally missed the point.

Don't be sorry. Be free. Free Willy. Tongue
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 13, 2019, 11:45:34 PM

I'm out at the site. Moored up for the evening after getting the spar anchored.



cool.

while im not sold on the idea at this time i look forward to you sharing your experience with it. real world info from "the common man" so to speak. 
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Homo Sapiens Bitcoinerthalensis


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January 14, 2019, 12:21:34 AM

I'm out at the site. Moored up for the evening after getting the spar anchored.



cool.

while im not sold on the idea at this time i look forward to you sharing your experience with it. real world info from "the common man" so to speak. 

Actually I'm intrigued.
You have to be 3/4 completely fucking nuts to merely attempt living in this sea stead thingy. Unless you are a convict. Wink

Cool? Fuck yes!!!
Is Elwar loco? Fuck yes!!!
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January 14, 2019, 12:48:47 AM
Merited by bitserve (1)



if you only had a window into price in $ and NOTHING else, it would be an insufficient info, obviously.
...

Yes...and $$ inflation highlights just one example in which the future price snapshot has little value.

Say also that you find out the price on date x would be $200. What action can you take right now ?

How can you know if the structure of BTC will be the same ? How can you know what fork can have happened, and whether consensus has changed the issuance of units ? What if the price was $20000 just  a few months after your chosen date, for unknown technical reasons ?

..and that is just the guesses we can make. How about the unknown unknowns ?
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January 14, 2019, 12:54:01 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIb2lmHgd5s
Joe Rogan Experience #1170 - Tulsi Gabbard
1,112,437 views

+2 WOsMerit's

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/rep-tulsi-gabbard-of-hawaii-says-she-will-seek-the-2020-democratic-nomination-for-president/2019/01/11/2f0c7b26-027c-11e9-9122-82e98f91ee6f_story.html?utm_term=.0c51217d0881

https://www.tulsi2020.com/

Looks like the young lady is throwing her hat into the ring for 2020. That was a great interview with Joe but I would like to see her in a more adversarial type format and see how she handles a little pressure. She is smart, well spoken and a veteran..not to mention easy on the eye's. I think she has a bright future and I really like what she is saying.  I will definitely be keeping close track of what she has to say as we approach the next general elections.


Wut? I've not seen anything anywhere to prove anything.

+1 WOsMerit




If you look through the court document's it appears that CSW has been involved since at least 2011. You are correct however mum that there has been no concrete proof.  #dyor


It is nice to see that you are placing low odds on CSW being satoshi, and even conceding that a decent amount of information remains unknown.

On the other hand, I find it a bit ironic that you were cluttering this thread with ideas that the negative had not been adequately proven or that there is really any kind of need to spend WO brain power on such question regarding that fucktwat who is most-likely a fraudster.

Wait a minute here...  We have brain power?

+1 WOsMerit

--------


Dapple wintertime
A gigantic bitcoin jump
whilst watching the dip
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January 14, 2019, 12:56:05 AM

Kyoto, Japan



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January 14, 2019, 12:57:39 AM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

my one single post
On todays haiku Sunday
Is this here haiku
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January 14, 2019, 01:30:31 AM

I'm out at the site. Moored up for the evening after getting the spar anchored.



how is the bandwidth out there?

We are at around 3Mbps download and 1Mbps upload with just a small pocket Wifi device. I have an antenna booster that should get that up closer to 20Mbps. The key here is distance.
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January 14, 2019, 02:06:55 AM

I'm out at the site. Moored up for the evening after getting the spar anchored.



Are you going to just visit or to live/sleep there in the seastead?

I really can't even imagine how it would be to live in it. Eager to hear your comments on the real life experience.

My gf and I will be living there. We will be doing plenty of blogging and updating.

I created http://www.seasteadtalk.org for discussion of seasteading.
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January 14, 2019, 02:07:02 AM

We have to hold the 200ma, if not, we break much lower. I think we hold the line, time will tell.
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