do you think any long term options would be possible ~ 1 year from now or something like that.
I see the problem of missing data and know too little in detail about options, but if I decide to buy more I would probably be interested in a somewhat insurance. or are there better financial instruments, probably cfds for this?
I think you're going to be super hard-pressed to find anyone willing to sell you a long-dated option on something like XMR. There's simply too much tail risk that you can't really price in. Risto might be willing to sell you some long-dated puts, but in reality it's the same thing (though he's currently pricing it way more attractively because he doesn't want to let any XMR slip through his clenched hands  ). |
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If I may propose that the developers reply a little less to these endlessly repeated same, yet fallacious, arguments, and concentrate a little more in the advances in the Monero ecosystem, such as the first ever options markets on any alt/BTC rate. Edited for clarity. You should be aware of the new rules by now! < this is red |
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"Buyback" is only to allow closing of a position, correct? There is a reason why it is called buy BACK. Yes that is why I assumed as much. I can dream though.  |
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Sell Buyback Contract full name Maturity Type Strike B.E Lev. Imp vol Open interest
0,00015 0,00009 140930-CALL-0.0200 30.9.2014 CALL 0,02000 0,02012 3409 % 300 %
0,00055 0,00037 140930-CALL-0.0100 30.9.2014 CALL 0,01000 0,01046 889 % 300 % 5000
0,00077 0,00053 140930-CALL-0.0080 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00800 0,00865 631 % 300 %
0,00111 0,00079 140930-CALL-0.0060 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00600 0,00695 432 % 300 %
0,00136 0,00098 140930-CALL-0.0050 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00500 0,00617 351 % 300 %
0,00179 0,00131 140930-CALL-0.0040 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00400 0,00555 265 % 320 %
0,00229 0,00170 140930-CALL-0.0030 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00300 0,00500 205 % 340 %
0,00120 0,00086 140930-PUT-0.0045 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00450 0,00347 397 % 160 %
0,00085 0,00059 140930-PUT-0.0040 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00400 0,00328 569 % 160 %
0,00055 0,00037 140930-PUT-0.0035 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00350 0,00304 891 % 160 %
0,00032 0,00020 140930-PUT-0.0030 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00300 0,00274 1587 % 160 %
0,00015 0,00009 140930-PUT-0.0025 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00250 0,00238 3436 % 160 %
0,00046 0,00030 141031-CALL-0.0200 31.10.2014 CALL 0,02000 0,02038 1068 % 280 %
0,00103 0,00072 141031-CALL-0.0100 31.10.2014 CALL 0,01000 0,01088 468 % 280 %
0,00127 0,00091 141031-CALL-0.0080 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00800 0,00909 377 % 280 %
0,00160 0,00117 141031-CALL-0.0060 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00600 0,00739 296 % 280 %
0,00183 0,00134 141031-CALL-0.0050 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00500 0,00659 258 % 280 %
0,00224 0,00167 141031-CALL-0.0040 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00400 0,00595 210 % 300 %
0,00269 0,00202 141031-CALL-0.0030 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00300 0,00536 174 % 320 %
0,00155 0,00113 141031-PUT-0.0045 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00450 0,00316 306 % 160 %
0,00118 0,00084 141031-PUT-0.0040 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00400 0,00299 405 % 160 %
0,00085 0,00059 141031-PUT-0.0035 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00350 0,00278 567 % 160 %
0,00057 0,00038 141031-PUT-0.0030 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00300 0,00252 861 % 160 %
0,00034 0,00021 141031-PUT-0.0025 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00250 0,00222 1475 % 160 %
0,00069 0,00047 141130-CALL-0.0200 30.11.2014 CALL 0,02000 0,02058 709 % 260 %
0,00130 0,00093 141130-CALL-0.0100 30.11.2014 CALL 0,01000 0,01112 368 % 260 %
0,00154 0,00112 141130-CALL-0.0080 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00800 0,00933 309 % 260 %
0,00186 0,00137 141130-CALL-0.0060 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00600 0,00761 254 % 260 %
0,00207 0,00153 141130-CALL-0.0050 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00500 0,00680 227 % 260 %
0,00248 0,00185 141130-CALL-0.0040 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00400 0,00617 189 % 280 %
0,00291 0,00219 141130-CALL-0.0030 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00300 0,00555 161 % 300 %
0,00180 0,00132 141130-PUT-0.0045 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00450 0,00294 262 % 160 %
0,00142 0,00103 141130-PUT-0.0040 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00400 0,00277 334 % 160 %
0,00108 0,00076 141130-PUT-0.0035 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00350 0,00258 446 % 160 %
0,00077 0,00053 141130-PUT-0.0030 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00300 0,00235 635 % 160 %
0,00050 0,00033 141130-PUT-0.0025 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00250 0,00209 992 % 160 %
- All prices are subject to change; if you want to buy an option, request a quote first. - Sell price is the price you can buy the option. - Buyback is the price I can buy back the option I have issued. - Breakeven, leverage and implied volatility have been calculated from the average of sell and buyback prices. - previous rules apply. Note that buyback is only possible if I am online and don't bitch if I quote a price less than you'd hope. Your contractual right when buying an option is to buy or sell XMR at the agreed price, the buyback is just a bonus. "Buyback" is only to allow closing of a position, correct? Edit: there's still a tidy ~.36 to make selling the combo, depending on what you can pick up long XMR for -- underlying liquidity is potentially a huge issue/consideration |
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What escrow are you using?
After thinking about it some more, I'd like to offer up to 5 Contracts, calls only, .01 strike or higher only, 10% discount to Risto's current price (if we come up with a mechanism to have up to date prices, if not, we'd have to work something else out).
David Latapie. How about you? How much would it cost to have a real time options exchange with writing privileges for those who have escrowed their position? I think despite the discount, many would currently still buy from me because I am such a nice guy, everything works smoothly and I offer buyback. Tell me if you get any customers!  Will do!  I assumed they would as such, that's the entire reason for the discount. I need to look over your new pricing data a bit more to get a better feel for what I want to do. Edit: as for an actual real-time exchange, I don't think it should be that difficult? I'm not a coder, but surely there is someone capable around here with the necessary options knowledge that could whip something up. If no naked writing is allowed, there's really very little risk to the exchange offering the service. I don't really like the idea of keeping the full amount of the write in escrow (or at the exchange if you prefer), hacking and all that. I'm don't presently know of a good way around it though. Busoni is a pretty big XMR supporter, right? Wonder if he would be able to do something like that at Poloniex. |
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Risto, are you able to calculate actual historical volatility from your dataset of historical trading prices of poloniex, or could someone point me to a source? Poloniex only seemed to provide more recent trade data, and I don't know how to convert the graph information into data.
I ran a quick calculation based on the exhange history (the very beginnings at OTC omitted). The average of ABS(daily vwap change) was 11.97%, and since the number of trading days per year is 365, the annual volatility is 229%. Am I correct? The using of vwap's, instead of closes, smoothens the ride, but that was all the data I had. For example the latest rally top was 0.00580, yet the vwap of the day was only 0.00505 (top was 14.9% higher). It may be that 400%+ implied volatility is a bit steep, but let's leave it to the market. If somebody wants to write at 200%, I will be a buyer Like I told earlier, the puts are cheap. But this is based on my own calculations about support levels, trendlines and such, which almost totally disregard the event of price dropping 50% in any timeframe, whereas the price rising 100% is a near certainty based on the fundamentals, and only a question of time. The PUT-CALL disparity will hold at least in my pricing, and you are free to punish me however you see fit (luigi1111!). We already have 5000 XMR open interest, so perhaps I will continue and recalculate the prices for these options and add some 2-month ones as well. Hehe. What escrow are you using? After thinking about it some more, I'd like to offer up to 5 Contracts, calls only, .01 strike or higher only, 10% discount to Risto's current price (if we come up with a mechanism to have up to date prices, if not, we'd have to work something else out). Edit: didn't see the new prices before posting this. Front two expirations only. |
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There is no model I know of that can adequately accommodate such risk. The vol cannot exceed a certain amount (depending on expiration date). A call cannot be priced higher than the underlying.
I'm also not trying to "pretend" or assume anything in regards to price.
I'm only saying that, given the opportunity (i.e., an actual market), I would short combo you (+ my own long XMR of course) into oblivion (more likely until the price rose enough that you changed your put/call prices to be appropriate at the new ATM strike due to not anticipating as much upside anymore, given that the market is pretty illiquid).
I fully understand that you are supporting my initiative of creating the options market, and I understand that you are not attacking me. I also understand that if there were a two-sided efficient market, the market would price the options, and every single actor would be a price-taker. Furthermore, despite that the notional value of 5000 XMR is already traded, I did not even intend the current prices to be actual or factual. So I refuse to be offended. What you would do, could only happen in the circumstances where it could not happen.  I know. I was not trying to offend or attack you, so we're on the same page there. I am more impressed there was a buyer already (and may be more out there?). I will follow with interest, and am quite possibly interested in offering my own options for sale if there's some deal that can be worked out. |
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this will become a lot more interesting when you are making market (buying as well as selling) and there are at least two expirations in play.
you are sufficiently capitalized for now, but if you expose yourself more in future, do beware of insiders/hackers breaking your statistics.
anyhow, this is really great news for xmr. rock on, sir.
Let's be real here, an actual market wouldn't let him offer ATM calls at a 300%+ vol premium to ATM puts. If the actual market would offer calls with the same vol as I am offering puts, I'd be glad to buy them. Why? - As for the expensive calls, cryptocurrency is not a stock, its value has no upper bound. It can appreciate really quickly and go really high. The options pricing models have not been calibrated with crypto price datasets, which are heavily skewed to the fat tail to the upside. - As for the cheap puts, it is quite disingenious to pretend that XMR price has a large downside risk, because it doesn't. There is no model I know of that can adequately accommodate such risk. The vol cannot exceed a certain amount (depending on expiration date). A call cannot be priced higher than the underlying. I'm also not trying to "pretend" or assume anything in regards to price. I'm only saying that, given the opportunity (i.e., an actual market), I would short combo you (+ my own long XMR of course) into oblivion (more likely until the price rose enough that you changed your put/call prices to be appropriate at the new ATM strike due to not anticipating as much upside anymore, given that the market is pretty illiquid). |
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So lets say that i have 1000 XMR and i believe the price will go up soon. I believe it can double really soon due to a bubble or due to something major...Mining is getting more difficult by the month after all...
Lets also assume that i dont have time to watch the markets and trade for 45-60 days because of too much workload workload.
What should i do?
Buy more? I am mostly trying to see if someone wants to offer some sort of term deposits... You're basically wanting to get some leverage? Like buying a call option? Or do you want to buy on margin? |
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So lets say that i have 1000 XMR and i believe the price will go up soon. I believe it can double really soon due to a bubble or due to something major...Mining is getting more difficult by the month after all...
Lets also assume that i dont have time to watch the markets and trade for 45-60 days because of too much workload workload.
What should i do?
Buy more? |
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this will become a lot more interesting when you are making market (buying as well as selling) and there are at least two expirations in play.
you are sufficiently capitalized for now, but if you expose yourself more in future, do beware of insiders/hackers breaking your statistics.
anyhow, this is really great news for xmr. rock on, sir.
Let's be real here, an actual market wouldn't let him offer ATM calls at a 300%+ vol premium to ATM puts. What's this about there being risk to the issuer? From what I can tell, he's only offering fully covered sales, a la "covered call" and "cash-secured put". There isn't really any meaningful risk to the issuer. The only reason it's still attractive (to the seller) even fully covered is the sky-high vol (which could absolutely be justified, even though it's artificial/arbitrary). With that said, I'd love to offer a few contracts at these prices with the same conditions as Risto's. |
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Monero is very suspicious coin. I hear developer hardcode in 5 million xmr in their own wallets. Is it true???  Really? This is pure nonsense. If the code is open source then you can't hardcode it into it and hide it from the others. Obviously it's not true, stop believing rumors or spreading FUD; whichever you're trying to do. Obviously a purchased Hero account right there.
So much scam.
Yeah it seemed suspicious to me as well due to the way that he posted. I just didn't want to point it out before checking his whole account, for which I do not have time (right now). You might as well remove the trust that you put on him in this case. Someone is trying to manipulate everything, luckily it's not working (for now). Man, lighten up. That's pretty obvious sarcasm in my book. |
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...
Next time you see a hero member, a senior member, or even a junior member that is posting for Monero...
...
And what about Legendary members? Even scarier those are! |
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doge is up 25% you know crypto is still a play ground and action is around the corner.. I would like to see the statistics on how many got into crypto before the age of 20. It does make sense.. DRK will be repumped since it's the perfect candidate. When DRK actually gets repumped for real I say bye bye 50$wroom....eeeeYhhrR Crash moon thx bye. As statistics shows you are not succesful as a trader if you are not learning how to trade downtrend, Crypto is for making money - The Miners. Crypto is for supporting and being a part of a righteous future. I'm rich. I don't care. I will play for this amount, these mind sets are currently in majority hence they are sitting with the money. The money that entered one way leaves in another, with dynamic tempus which is. If you are not init for the fundamentals you are either in it for the money, or money and fundamentals. IF you are in it for the money you will do good. If you are init for the money and fundamentals - you are a weak hand; you will trade with your heart and will switch crytpo as a teenage girl gets crushes on gay boy bands. You do not know how to trade in a downtrend and always greed out at a loss. If you are init for the fundamentals simply put up your node and go meditate.
Repumped? So you agree that drk is a pump and dump? Most don't like to engage with you, but I would just like to point out: "DRK was pumped and dumped" != "DRK is a pump and dump [scheme]". The former obviously happened. The latter is (apparently) still being argued about. |
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I think pricing per MB/GB makes more sense, but hey you could have it both ways, or impose caps, all priced up and selectable in-wallet. Prices in that poll are on the high side IMO... (10 cents / 0.0275 DRK (current exchange) * 1000000 daily users) / 1000 MNs = still 27.5DRK or ~$100 per day. There is absolutely going to have to be a minumum MN spec (bandwidth!) for this though. And it's going to be near impossible to enforce that, so some mechanism for booting shitty underspecced VPS's off the network would need to exist. Well, if they have to pay for bandwidth, then it makes sense for the masternodes to get paid based on bandwidth provided, perhaps? There are plenty of considerations/caveats for this though. |
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Come on TsuyokuNaritai, you know better than that. Why waste your time ?
I'm just pointing it out for those still engaging him as if he's some kind of reformed ex-spamtroll trying his best to make a contribution to non-spamtrollish society. You won't win that war, neither will anyone making fun of him/riling him/playing psychiatrist or any response whatsover. The only way to win is ignore, period. But what about no antagonism at all? I'm all seriousness, I've found his latest bout of posts nothing short of hilarious. I've literally been breaking into chuckles all day. Why you (everyone) gotta go after him? Why shout him down, curse him, hate him, resent him, decide what he does or doesn't deserve? Harboring such feelings hurts you, not him. When he was goaded, his posts turned sour again and ceased to be funny. Why you gotta ruin it for the rest of us (not speaking of you, slapper)? You know that engaging him, particularly from a polar viewpoint, accomplishes nothing. So just ignore him like everyone keeps telling you to. For the rest of us (or maybe just me), his change of course was humorous. Are you really happier when he's aggressively shouting at everyone than posting "benignly" about his masternode? Peace |
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Whatever exchange you use, make sure you have activated 2FA, if you have trouble with it, dont leave ANY coins on ANY exchange.
i had trouble with my 2FA so i got it disabled, but i didnt take out my coins as soon as cryptsy had disabled it, and in less than 24 hours, i had lost my 131 drk.
Since i have 2FA on my gmail, they could not just withdraw, so what they did instead was trade all my coins to GDC and sold it to another account...
So, Please remember, USE 2FA AT ALL TIMES! and if not, make sure you dont have any coins ANYWHERE else but your wallet (with backup of your wallet.dat)
Can I ask you 1) how complicated your pw was? 2) whether you reused the pw on other websites? I am using 10 characters long unique pw - would you say I still need the 2FA? How could anyone compromise my account? Have you seen this website? https://howsecureismypassword.net/They claim not to be recording your password but I don't know if there is any way to verify that, so if you do try it out it's probably best to try a similar password, changing a character or two. I use 2FA and long unique passwords generated by a password manager. Of course you have to trust the password manager and unless you have an amazing memory, remembering passwords without the password manager is out of the question but for trading accounts it's probably fine unless you have an incredible urge to trade on-the-go. Sure you can. Load up the website, disconnect your Internet. It still works. |
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So what's the status on enforcement? The lack of it is costing me money because I'm not getting all my masternode payments due to non-compliant entities refusing to pay the 20% fee. Something needs to be done about this ASAP. Your trollish and spammy bouts of posting (that occur some days) are mildly annoying, but ATM I find you quite hilarious. Keep it up!  |
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Perhaps just give masternodes the option to send 1 out of every x payments to an address administrated by the Darkcoin foundation. These funds would then be distributed between a number of charities that we could vote on. Additionally, such a scheme could be implemented with a % of transaction fees.
Just like many others, I invested in creating a master node. I'd say I'm about 3k$ in the hole all in all. The thoughts that I might be forced to give up a portion of my meager income to charity just makes me wanna hurl. I agree that it should be optional. I've also read about a "mistaken" DRK insta/pre mine...... Why aren't these funds being used to fund a charity.....or set up MNs with the sole purpose of donating their proceeds to charity? Forget that! I'll shut down my masternode and sell the DRK if I'm forced to contribute to some charity that likely spends mere pennies on the dollar on actual charitable work while the rest goes towards salaries and perks for those running the charity. Most charities are nothing but scams. Needs to be optional. |
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