That's ok. Bitcoin is better

And DDoS mining pools, apparently. Buggers

Zing!

And wb tvbcof! Use that data wisely

Anyone ready for gold and silver to take rocket upward after Sunday?

Funny how major markets finally close for the weekend, and BItcoin takes off like a miniature rocket.

What Bitcoin is doing now and throughout the weekend will be what gold and silver do during the rest of June.

How many bitcoins are needed to trade for 1oz of gold and 1oz of silver?



The data uses the daily London silver, PM gold fix, and the Mt. Gox weighted average Bitcoin price. For comparison, the gold-silver ratio has been included.

At its peak, just over 53 bitcoins were required to buy 2 troy ounces of monetary precious metals, one gold and one silver. I combined gold and silver because the charts were nearly identical, only at different magnitudes.

Comparing the Bitcoin to monetary metal ratio to the gold-silver ratio makes it easy to see how much better Bitcoin has performed relative to silver. The latter seems to be lagging by a few months, probably because of its industrial use aspect being tied to economic activity versus its monetary purpose.

I hadn't noticed at first, thanks for setting me straight. Looking forward to the updates.

Ah, I'd be curious to see a broad market assessment. I wouldn't be surprised to see liquidity booming at other exchanges, particularly BitStamp and Intersango.

Definitely not for global use. Is that analysis including exchanges other than Gox?

Then you shouldn't have any trouble seeing the gradual reversal of the downtrend in gold

The same would apply to the USDX being below 81.75 and dropping. The Fed today (and central banking worldwide) is following and exaggerating trends - exactly the opposite of what it's supposed to be doing: anticipating and compensating. This weekend will be the beginning of officially-resumed monetary intervention through a globally coordinated effort.

Looking at Kitco's gold to currency comparison, only the JPY and USD are stronger relative to gold, and then only on a 60-day basis. Every other time-frame is gold-positive. In fact, Bitcoin is about the only 'currency' that's truly strong against gold at the moment - not even silver has taken off yet. Amusingly enough, papiermarks are gaining relative to gold presumably because of their limited stock and historical significance - not that it takes much for a $2 piece of paper to trade 50-100% higher.







Anything beyond 60-days is green for gold.





I'll make a chart including BTC soon


We're such a bunch of Bitcoin junkies

That isn't the issue. It's one thing to get excited about daily changes, and another to say an investment is collapsing or going to the moon because of a few days' movements.

In other words: focusing on technicals while dismissing fundamentals, and conflating the former with the latter.

FTFY


And to think I've been ripped on for looking at monthly, yearly, and even longer-term trends...

The spikes are statistically insignificant in terms of the sample size; there is more than enough data to show that the trend in volume is down as price declines.

This is similar to 'luck' with regard to mining. We don't get too excited about finding two blocks in rapid succession because statistically they average out.

Priceless!

On one hand, he doesn't deserve it. On the other, if it's there and he accepts it, he'll have discredited himself. Even if he sells all of the donation, he'll look the fool when Bitcoin continues to grow.

The range has been narrowing, and in a curved pattern far more likely to form a cup than a drop-off. Volume is staring you in the face as well. Thanks for giving us your money!

Gold is rising regardless; B-Boy just adds fuel to the fire.

You might not have noticed, but everything is building pressure against the dollar. The efforts made to prop up US junk are exhausted and this weekend will be used as cover to let markets flow the way they want. It's like fishing - when the line seems too taught and about to break, you give slack. Always with as much control as possible. I hope you're using tight stops.

Might as well back up the truck, silverbox - it's going to be a fun ride

If you're looking to acquire physical metal, now is the time. Any price below USD$1,800 is a deep discount.


Possibly. I'd be wary of putting a position on now; some brokers are even closing down pre-market trading altogether until after the Greek drama on the 17th, reducing liquidity.

Add another 'nice job' to the list - I can sympathize with the initial jitters.

I've periodically had the opportunity to speak with some influential and progressive people, the kind that might be interested in funding the next CoinLab venture. Almost all of them have been completely, and somewhat surprisingly, unfamiliar with Bitcoin. Those that are aware of it regard the system warily, as something too new to be taken seriously yet.

Concrete examples and tailored analogies tend to be most effective; weusecoins.com does a great job of that from a consumer viewpoint. For business/entrepreneurial and high net worth types, the interest piques when I mention the potential to move arbitrary amounts of funds across borders and nearly instantaneously, especially when speaking about selling gold for bitcoins in one location and reversing the exchange upon arrival at the destination.

Whenever fears about Bitcoin disappearing come up, I compare the system to bamboo or ivy. Anyone who's wanted to get rid of either knows it can be an exceedingly difficult task, even borderline impossible if there's enough growth. If they press for a deeper answer, I note that the technical structure is built on proven technologies decades old (hitting the mathematics point you made), and that nodes are geographically dispersed such that the US would have more than a hard time shutting off Brazilian or Chinese participants. I try to avoid BitTorrent network comparisons at first because of the unwarranted negative connotations.

On the question about what Bitcoin is backed by, I've found that it gets the target's brain working when replying with this question: Where does the value of the Internet come from? For the more business-oriented, that can be modified to: What is the value of your contact network? When asked to put a number on something so nebulous but integral and ubiquitous, only a handful so far have been able to say more than 'highly valuable' without quantifying - a few times it's been stated as the most important part of the owner's company.

That's usually where I've seen a trigger hit, telling me the person realizes Bitcoin is more than it seems at first glance, and the impact has led to inquiries (some up to months afterward) asking me how to get started. Most of the time, they also want to know if and how they can use it with people they know. For that, I start with the analogy that it's like sending a message to an email address, only the message contains the number of bitcoins to be sent.

I sometimes suggest they also buy mining bonds to profitably support the network, but BitInstant is one of my perennial recommendations


+1


You misspelled SolidCoins

Stop with the stupid and the CRAZY EYES!!

Will this be an exclusively BFL operation, or is a heterogeneous environment including the likes of Lancelot in the cards?

HKMex update:

And the plunge in open interest of over 50% in both gold and silver... this pattern has repeated a few times so far. Delivery is on the 15th, but I'm not as well versed in the delivery process with HKMex as at COMEX. Such a spike and immediate decline in open interest is very odd, though. The impression is that physical delivery is needed immediately, for what purpose we can only speculate.

Because this pattern has occurred yet again, I'm going to fall back to the stronger possibility that large interests which have contractual obligations elsewhere (bullion banks) need metal from a source that has it readily available (China). This OI behavior is not indicative of explosive demand at the HKMex from wider investor awareness. However, if accurate, it would mean that physical gold demand is overwhelming paper and prices are extremely likely to escalate.

Continuing from the mechanism above, the second spike in silver OI might have been a rush to supply physical demand in order to allow the paper charade to "work its magic" - at this point it is glaringly clear that it ran out of "juice" and is unlikely to work again. Lower prices are the solution to lower prices, and as seen in the charts - if demand is indeed so much greater than it was during late 2011, efforts at managing perception have utterly failed.





Here's a suspicious bit of information:

COMEX delivery notices one day prior to the OI spike - Friday, June 8th - stood at 1,710 contracts or 171,000 toz of gold that must be delivered by month-end. As noted earlier, the COMEX equivalent of HKMex contracts was a little over 220,000 toz. Subtracting the "normal" OI of 871 contracts from the peak at 6,881 leaves 6,010 at 32 toz each, for a total of 192,320 toz. If we take the high of 6,881 contracts and pull the latest OI of 3,060 (which includes the 871 "normal" contracts), the remainder is 97,920 while the latest remaining COMEX delivery notices stand at 969 or 96,900 toz.

To drive the point of this rounding error across: HKMex 97,920 vs COMEX 96,900

In silver COMEX delivery notices, 59 remained the day before the spike began, for 295,000 toz. The spike high of 1,704 less 134 "normal" contracts is 1,570 or 1,570,000 toz. That would cover the 295,000 toz notices remaining, as well as provide supply for July - a major delivery month for silver, unlike gold which has a major month come August. Following the calculations above, subtracting the latest OI from of 650 from the spike high leaves 1,054 contracts or 1,054,000 toz as delivery potential.

Coincidence? Almost exactly the right amount of gold ordered from one exchange to cover for another, while overshooting to prepare for a big delivery month in silver? Very possible, but the actual details may never come to light.

Explanations have been presented by others regarding similar shuffling and draining of various ETFs, including GLD, as well as what are supposed to be segregated holdings of physical precious metals at, up until now, reputable brick-and-mortar institutions. The phyzzz is being grabbed from every direction, and almost nobody will realize it's gone until there's virtually nothing left.