So far it's been amazing how accurate the general sentiment on this forum (I mean the general sentiment of the relatively oldtimers and some other astute ones) has been been on this surge. Between the markets' shrugging off the SR shutdown, plus China, plus the BIT, plus intense and way more positive media cover, a big rise was very very predictable and many were predicting it
. . .
As to where we'll go from here, since we had a nice big correction now it seems we'll do the familiar dragon/alpaca pattern, which is basically oscillating in the triangle SlipperySlope drew above and then maybe some steadiness before going higher. I think there is yet more steam in this run-up, but double exponential growth cannot be tolerated, not even in Bitcoin. Bitcoin likes exponential growth, which is insane enough already.
Agreed. I too look for the remarks of old timers on this valuable forum. You nailed it. Regarding the exponential growth rate, it works out to about 0.59 % per day - awesome. |
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If 502 is the bottom of the November 18 bubble, here is the sort of resolving technical triangle pattern that I expect ...  I drew the horizontal length of the triangle to reflect my observation that this bubble so far is milder than the previous two great bitcoin bubbles, and may indeed turn out to be a big correction on the path to a greater bubble. |
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Looks like 901 was the peak on MtGox, Monday, November 18
Half of 901 is 450 and that price was reached on November 14, yielding a doubling time of 4 days at the peak. This is consistent with the previous two bubbles and becomes a very important indicator when guessing the peak of future bitcoin bubbles.
I expect the resolution of this bubble to be a damped oscillation from a high of 901 to a bottom of 502 as of now. If this bottom holds the midpoint of the resulting technical triangle pattern would be 701 and that is where I believe prices are headed.
Because the low of 502 is higher than much of the sentiment on this forum, I suppose that this bubble collapse is milder than the one in April and perhaps will recover to a new bubble soon. The length of my expected triangle pattern will give some idea of when the next big rally will occur.
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Imagine a bell curve of expectations for the date of the peak price. Given what I am feeling now, my expectation is that Friday is the most likely date. The price always seems to go higher than what most traders expect.
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I am planning on simply buying more coins after the collapse. But if I wanted more risk - I think some sort of spread. What do you think? [edited the typo -  ] |
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But where will we land? Back to $150 or a new level like $400?
Your very important point is worthy of time-is-short discussion. I think that the months-long resolution of this peak will be similar in shape to the April peak - that is a damped oscillation, technically a triangle pattern. The initial crash will be characterized by a flood of sell orders beyond the capacity of exhausted buyers to counter, with an extreme bid/ask spread. Support will be found at much lower levels with an immediate rebound off the bottom. Indeed, if the comparison with the April pattern holds, then the price should bounce around for weeks and settle at a price approximately halfway between the peak and crash price. |
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Yet another sign of the imminent peak.
Coinbase wires funds to Bitstamp to support its customer's bitcoin purchases. Because bank wire transfers can be potentially reversed, receiving bitcoin exchanges wait a prudent amount of time for the wire to certainly clear.
So the speculative buying volume has increased beyond the expectations of Coinbase - they did not think to wire lots more cash to Bitstamp in preparation for what is now happening.
Right?
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Countdown to the peak - China doubling fasterUsing BTC China data presented by BitcoinWisdom, I observe these price doubling times ... 400 ¥ on July 5 800 ¥ on August 31 - 57 days to double 1600 ¥ on November 5 - 66 days to double 3200 ¥ on November 16 - 11 days to double More convincing evidence that the peak is at most just days away. Here is the logarithmic chart, which clearly looks parabolic ... 
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SS I agree with your analysis. I get the same feeling. And if you look at growing volatility with bolinger, that tends to confirm. We tend to drop after daily bars extend significantly outside. Sorry for the big chart.
We love charts in the Speculation forum. I have not paid much attention to the Bolinger technical indicator, and I really appreciate your insight regarding outliers as a signal. |
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Stick those in OP if you're making that sorta thread.
Done! And thank you very much. |
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Countdown to the peak - MondayUsing MtGox USD daily prices, the Sunday open at 458 and close at 528 yields a daily increase of 15%. Likewise today's 618 high so far yields a potential daily increase of 17% with trading volume increasing. The 1000 price milestone is only 61% higher from 618. Using the two previous bubbles for guidance, these are signs that we are only days away from the peak. 
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We are dealing with something who's force we may not see again in our lifetimes. And that is strange, for I thought the Internet was that and now I'm not so sure which is more Disruptive in the grand scale of things...
Comparing disruption is not precisely clear - in my opinion the Internet conceptually subsumes Bitcoin. I entirely agree with your appraisal of the phenomenon, and recall the similar enthusiasm that drove bitcoin prices from $1 to $32 in a few months back in the spring of 2011 - when there was hardly any concrete evidence of what would subsequently happen in today's underlying bitcoin economy. |
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I really think this are different this time around. The world of BTC is vastly different, and larger, than where it was at the last 2 bubbles.
I'm guessing a correction is coming but I do not expect this time around that there will be a huge crash, and I don't think we'll go under $200 again. I think the new bottom will be around $350. Anyone's guess. I do feel pretty confident though that even if you bought it today at 525 or whatever crazy price it's at, and you can be patient, you'll be able to sell it again for this price after this 'bubble' has come and left.
Especially with the Chinese loving BTC these days, and no more shackles to Can't-handle-the-transactions-gonna-crash Gox, the potential for a sharp quick price-plummet is not nearly as there as it was just 6 months ago.
Yes, the greatest error in my previous analysis of the April 2013 bubble was comparing it too closely to the one other bubble in June 2011. I agree that drawing comparisons too closely to April will bias predictions for this bubble. None the less, it took only 16 hours to go from $475 to $575 on MtGox. This is very similar in nature to what happened in the week leading up to both prior bubbles. |
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I saw the original analysis, and I generally agree except to substitute the figure for investment gold bullion for the valuation of the world's total gold, the latter having jewelry and industrial uses which bitcoin cannot match. |
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Yes!
The current price action feels very much like the week before the bubble peaks in 2011 and April of this year. BTC China is pouring gasoline on the speculative fire with its temporary suspension of trading fees.
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I'm sorry but I can't take you seriously if you're still using Mt. Gox prices. It's well known that Mt. Gox has inflated prices (pre-dating the bubble) due to the fact that fiat withdrawals are limited/impossible. Start using Bitstamp or an average of different exchanges (exlcuding Mt. Gox) for a much more accurate price.
I am sympathetic to your viewpoint, but my analysis back in April 2013 used MtGox prices. I suggest that MtGox has a proportional relationship with USD prices posted on BitStamp. Furthermore, the greater potential error in my analysis is not using BTC China data as that exchange is obviously responsible for the current price action. |
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But if this is following the S-curve adoption rate of new technologies isn't there a point in which the price just shoots up without any "correction?" Bitcoin is not a stock and will not act like stocks do necessarily.
My logistic (S-Curve) adoption analysis over on rpietila's economics thread is about a multi-year price prediction neglecting, or rather smoothing out the bubbles. I hope, but do not yet expect, that future bubbles will become smaller and more frequent. |
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I agree there will be another drop sometime before the end of the year, though how high will it go in the mean time is what I am wondering. I may not be able to buy bitcoin at these prices again even with a drop.
In the April 2013 bubble collapse, it was possible to buy at under 30% of the peak price - either with great timing or as I did with a spread of pre-positioned limit buy orders. If the peak indeed is above $1000 I believe that prices after the collapse could likely be below where we are now, i.e. below $568. I am not trading this bubble, rather I may buy a few more coins after the collapse. |
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Here are my thoughts regarding the November 2013 bitcoin bubble. To the extent that comparing the two previous bubbles with this one is useful, here is a comparison with regard to price doubling times, using MtGox USD data. **** Bitcoin Bubble 1 peak occurred June 8, 2011 **** The way up ... 0.498 January 31, 2011 0.997 April 15 2011 - doubling time 74 days 1.99 April 28, 2011 - doubling time 13 days 3.98 May 10, 2011 - doubling time 12 days 7.97 May 13, 2011 - doubling time 3 days 15.95 June 4, 2011 - doubling time 22 days 31.90 The high on Wednesday, June 8, 2011 - doubling time 4 days  **** Bitcoin Bubble 2 peak occurred April 10, 2013 **** The way up ... 4.16 December 19, 2011 8.31 July 16, 2012 - doubling time 210 days 16.62 January 21, 2013 - doubling time 189 days 33.25 March 1, 2013 - doubling time 59 days 66.50 March 25, 2013 - doubling time 24 days 133.00 April 3, 2013 - doubling time 9 days 266.00 Wednesday, April 10, 2013 - doubling time 7 days  **** Current Bitcoin Bubble 3 **** The way up ... 65.42 July 4, 2013 130.84 August 29, 2013 - doubling time 56 days 261.68 November 5, 2013 - doubling time 68 days 523.36 November 16, 2013 - doubling time 11 days  If the pattern of the two previous bubbles holds, we might expect one more doubling with the peak very roughly around $1000. Likewise we might expect to see the peak next week, doubling from 523.36 in perhaps only 7 days. Major posts in this thread ...Your thoughts? |
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