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741  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Price will shoot up much higher if.... on: January 26, 2013, 11:20:11 PM
When did this come out? Just now?

October 25th, 2012, I think it aired recently though.
It's been aired in the UK apparently too.  I had a great experience the other day of talking to someone at a party about Bitcoin and two others within earshot came to join in the conversation because they'd heard about it too.  One of them mentioned this programme and his impression was that someone had bought a house with it!  Not only should Wagner have not made up a vastly exaggerated figure for user numbers he should also have not let the 'houses' thing go.  Something like 'yes, in principle but it's early days yet for transactions that big to be commonplace' would have done.  

It's all very well that big impressive figures and impressions bring in interest but people who consequently do a little research and find its use and distribution is not what they'd been led to believe will from day 2 at some level get the impression that people to do with Bitcoin are not entirely honest.
742  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 26, 2013, 08:12:19 PM


p2p exchange that requires no trust, might be possible for BTC/LTC or any other crypto currency

and their is SOME chance of making it work with fiat using the Mint Chip.

but please move this nonsense into another thread, some of us have some serious trolling to do if we are to bring down the price using only words  Grin
Apologies for hijacking your thread Adam, yes with volume so low it shouldn't be that difficult to persuade some to buy/sell or whatever it is you're encouraging today Wink
743  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 26, 2013, 08:09:24 PM
I mean peer-to-peer system like in BitTorrent and Bitcoin. If we could have an exchange connected to the conventional banking system build on a decentralised infrastructure it would be impossible to shutdown.
I think I'm getting you here - and if I have and this is new might it be more appropriate to have a new thread somewhere like projects to discuss this?

So are we talking about an open source p2p system with something like a distributed blockchain whereby I download the client that uses something like UseMyFunds to log into my bank account.  If I'm selling my fiat the client verifies I have the funds available and places the order on the p2p exchange.  Likewise if selling Bitcoin I give an address that the client verifies with the Bitcoin blockchain.  The client displays the orderbook with everybody's orders as if it were a private central-server-based exchange service and transfers Bitcoin and fiat between accounts and addresses when a transaction is made.  It would require a substantial amount of trust but I sort-of see that as potentially working.
Yes something like this but as you said the main problem is trust. Fiat transaction are reversible.
If it were from the bank's perspective just a personal payment and the bank had no idea what the transaction is about how would the scammer go about telling the bank it ought be reversed?  It's not like a credit card transaction with warranties etc. built in.
744  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 26, 2013, 08:00:57 PM
I mean peer-to-peer system like in BitTorrent and Bitcoin. If we could have an exchange connected to the conventional banking system build on a decentralised infrastructure it would be impossible to shutdown.
I think I'm getting you here - and if I have and this is new might it be more appropriate to have a new thread somewhere like projects to discuss this?

So are we talking about an open source p2p system with something like a distributed blockchain whereby I download the client that uses something like UseMyFunds to log into my bank account.  If I'm selling my fiat the client verifies I have the funds available and places the order on the p2p exchange.  Likewise if selling Bitcoin I give an address that the client verifies with the Bitcoin blockchain.  The client displays the orderbook with everybody's orders as if it were a private central-server-based exchange service and transfers Bitcoin and fiat between accounts and addresses when a transaction is made.  All the banks see are free personal transactions between bank accounts and need have no idea what it was for Smiley

It would require a substantial amount of trust but I sort-of see that as potentially working.
745  Economy / Economics / Re: What is bitcoin backed by? My favorite answers on: January 26, 2013, 10:09:06 AM
One thing I've really enjoyed in reading this thread is there are so many diverse ideas about what 'backs' Bitcoin and much disagreement.  I would be a lot more concerned of the possibility of Bitcoin enthusiasts being in some kind of self-deceptive, self-reinforcing cult if it were a community of like-minded people.  Yet although there are obvious trends Bitcoin does attract people from virtually all political and economic stables which I believe gives the idea and the currency resilience.

My conclusion:  Come to agree on things if you must but long may diverse opinions be seen and be welcome here Wink
746  Economy / Economics / Re: Article: Bank of Japan inflates the yen to infinity and beyond starting 2014 on: January 26, 2013, 09:57:29 AM
I wonder how many Japanese know bitcoin, and their country has the biggest bitcoin market in the world. We don't even have a Japanese forum here
But for how long if the Japanese en masse clamoured for Bitcoin?

I'd be reluctant to instigate a drive to publicise Bitcoin in Japan right now if the consequence would lead to the Japanese inflation plan being scuppered by their people saying 'no thanks'.  How long would they be likely to turn a blind eye to it with MtGox under their very nose!

Then again maybe it would be good for Bitcoin if sooner rather than later MtGox disappeared because I'm not convinced having as many products and services as there are priced in Bitcoin based on current MtGox prices is so healthy?

With me as undecided as I am maybe it's a good job the spread of Bitcoin in Japan is almost entirely out of my hands Smiley  My guess is MtGox keeps a fairly low profile in Japan?
747  Economy / Speculation / Re: 17 is the new 12 on: January 25, 2013, 09:41:02 PM
Example of a weak shand.  Someone too scared to buy into BTC and watched it rise from $10 to $15.  The entire time was convinced it would crash to <$10 so they didn't want to buy.  Finally due to the spike from $15 to $19 they buy in (capitulation buy).  They don't really want to buy in at this price point but their short term plan has failed and they feel "forced" to buy in now or risk missing out on even more price appreciation.  This hypothetical investor now has too much invested at too high of a price (relative to their own internal valuation).  This investor is just looking for a quick spike to >$20 to sell for a profit.  They are very likely to dump on any significant price movement upward which caps their gains however the larger risk is they are too long relative to their internal valuation and thus are very likely to panic sell if the price moves against them.  Their impulse purchase, entry point, objective, and internal valuation all conspire to create a scenario where their upside potential is small and they have a large risk of selling in any downside correction.

Example of a strong hand.  Someone dollar cost averaged with multiple strategic buys between $10 and $15 over the course of months.  The investor believes long term the valuation should be north of $50 and thus $1 to $2 price moves are really irrelevant.  While this investor may have a large nominal amount invested they don't "need" the funds and are psychologically prepared to suffer a unrealized loss for months of even years.  They anticipate significant corrections and have undeployed capital ready to "buy on dips".  The investor also accepts there is a non zero chance that the Bitcoin experiment will fail and this speculative investment will be completely worthless.  This hypothetical investor has a strong hand.  They are more likely to be buying on dips and selling some (but not all) on unrealistic spikes to continually improve their basis.  

Over time coins (and thus wealth) are more likely to move from weak hands to strong hands.

A massive thank you all in this thread for helping me 'get' this.  It hadn't even crossed my mind that its derivation could have come from card games but the switch from seeing 'strong' as in how big the investor's balls are to what position they're playing from opens the door for me to an entirely new understanding.

And this description from DeathAndTaxes is astoundingly clear.  Whilst at first glance it may look like it is the indecisiveness of the player that makes them weak if I'm understanding this right that is not what is being referred to at all.  That is only what lead to this hypothetical player holding a weak hand in the first place.  It is the hand they are holding (their position/circumstance/attitude) which makes them a 'weak hand' which they are likely to lose if the market goes against them for anything other than the tiniest blip.

Interestingly, and especially when it comes to Bitcoin with its divisibility, it's not so much what we're dealt or how much we brought to the table that determines how strong or weak our hands are as the decisions we make in terms of how much (relative to our 'pot'), at what prices and when we buy, hold or sell.  Our knowledge and understanding of trading, our tendency to make well reasoned decisions and to form a plan as well as our courage to carry that plan through all have a part in determining how strong our hand is.  Of course luck has its part to play but deciding to select strong hands and carrying them through to their conclusion on a consistent basis is very likely to result in a long-term earned increase in asset value, at the expense of those who didn't.

OK, I'm converted.  Now that I understand it I'm a fan of the notion of money flowing from weak hands to strong hands now Smiley  Now all I need to do (if I plan to do any more than hold onto my Bitcoin until such a time that I can earn in it and pay most of my living expenses in it) is to learn the skills and disciplines necessary to hold strong hands Smiley

I love this forum.  I open my mouth with a misunderstanding and get presented with a beautiful opportunity to learn.  The quality of thinking here bodes well for Bitcoin methinks Smiley  Thanks all.
748  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: David Friedman and Bitcoin on: January 25, 2013, 07:18:48 PM
Everyone looks at what happened and what factors affected it, then apply their worldview to the situation. And we all know, of course, that every person on Earth believes the exact same thing. Tongue
On this we are agreed (and this is the second post in a row where this was my response)!
749  Economy / Speculation / Re: 17 is the new 12 on: January 25, 2013, 07:16:47 PM
Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Google should know that one.

My only point is that we can't move up while people who are unsure about higher prices hold the coins.  Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained.
On that we are agreed Smiley
750  Economy / Speculation / Re: 17 is the new 12 on: January 25, 2013, 06:00:33 PM
Weak hands panic sell, strong hands look at the drop and either say 'meh' or wire funds to the exchanges if they haven't accumulated enough yet.

Weak hands are in it for short term profit, strong hands believe in bitcoin.

It's not dog eat dog, it's bull gore pig.
Thanks notme, I think I understand a bit better though the 'bull gore pig' is lost on me (and lost on google too)!
Yet somehow still the 'strong' idea, like the 'courage' idea in the other thread just don't sit right with me.  In the OP of that one is the line 'You will need your courage far more than it will need your faith'.  But I think a simple belief that there's a bloody good chance Bitcoin will have a significant role in the future of world finance means no courage or determination or strength is needed.  People keep telling me I'm brave in holding onto my Bitcoin as it gets so high or as it plummets so deep (not that I've had to yet).

Of course I enjoy a bit of excitement as I realise how much better off I am than had I left it in pounds but if and when it goes below what it was last week or even what I paid for it it still don't feel I can claim credit for being strong or brave.  It's like someone telling me I'm brave not believing in god.  It's really easy.  It's not like I even have a choice.  It's just what I believe and I act accordingly.

All I can do is to try and remain open to arguments that I may be wrong in the fundamentals that underlie my belief, and if I'm persuaded by any or enough of them then my belief will change but courage?  strength? Nah, not me Smiley

...And those who do sell?  Maybe they're not weak either.  They just have different beliefs and act accordingly.
751  Economy / Speculation / Re: 17 is the new 12 on: January 25, 2013, 05:41:36 PM
Seeing as how the block reward went from 50 to 25, 24 is the new 12.  We're just not there yet and people selling off BTC while the price edges higher is delaying it.  They really ought to keep it until 23-24-ish to make the most.

BTC must flow from weak hands to strong hands before higher prices can be sustained.
I keep hearing this 'weak to strong hands' thing.  Where does it come from?  Does it mean if I bought wherever I bought low and had weak hands but subsequently don't bother trading it does that mean my hands are getting stronger otherwise I wouldn't be able to hold onto them at higher prices?  On first impression it seems to be a flawed metaphor appearing to be favoured by those with a 'dog-eat-dog' the survival-of-the-fittest, no-mercy-on-the-losers world-view.  Am I close to the mark?
752  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Alex Jones does real issues (gun rights and anti-depressant drugs) a dis-service on: January 25, 2013, 05:32:11 PM
As a Brit very familiar with Morgan and his ways, and as one who has seen some of Alex Jones' rants before I should have known better than to have sat through that one.  But it does intrigue me that Jones has such a following, as it puzzles me that Bush should ever have become president. He's a 9/11 truther for f***s sake!  How can anybody with an ounce of sense take him seriously?

Over this side of the pond we rarely get to hear a rational argument put for the right to bear arms so it could potentially have been interesting and informative - but not with those two!  The US pro-gun lobby are painted here as lunatic red-neck conspiracy theorists.  It doesn't help the cause when the one who walks out to represent them just simply reinforces the stereotype!

Look up Operation Northwoods declassified U.S. documents and still tell me that its not at least a possibility that some part of the U.S. govt was involved in 9/11

Not to mention look at all the fascist BS they've been able to push through using 9/11 as the excuse, maybe it just happened conviently for them, but I'd guess when it involves the most powerful people in the world it typically is not just a coincidence.

Patriot Act, Homeland security, TSA, NDAA, Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and on and on. Oh just how well it worked out for them that 9/11 occurred, what a coincidence!
I'll tell you straight I'm simply not going there on any of the 9/11 stuff.  My comment in the previous post says where I am on that.

As for the politicians' consequent use of it to push through their own agendas on surveillance, wars, erosion of civil liberties etc. I'm with you on that one.  But that does not lead me to believing those who gained in that manner caused the conditions from which they took advantage.  So please, just leave the other as far as I'm concerned.

Edit: to highlight my reasons for not responding to the post below.  Draw whatever conclusions you may wish from this.
753  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: David Friedman and Bitcoin on: January 25, 2013, 05:23:24 PM
Bitcoin and unregulated financial markets just leads to massive scamming.

Unlike our heavily over-regulated fiat trash based financial markets.  Oh wait, S&L crisis, dotcom bubble/crash, housing bubble/crash, bond bubble/crash.  

And Madoff, plus MF Global and LIBOR, etc. etc. etc.

Can't you go be a blithering statist in some other thread?   Cheesy

Not really in anyone's defense here, but the housing bubble crash was caused due to a lack in regulation rather than over-regulation. A lot of people at a lot of banks and firms were doing things that should have never been allowed even if just viewed from a common sense perspective.

Not that I'm a bank lover, but I wouldn't give (at least) the housing bubble to the over-regulation side.

Not true at all. That bubble happened precisely because of regulation. Banks were practically forced to lower lending standards by Freddie and Fannie, not to mention the FED key interest rate affected mortgage rates to get artificially low enabling many to borrow who couldn't afford it. All Wall Street did was feed upon this circle and meet a demand that was created by the government and no one else. It's called moral hazard, look it up.

It had more to do with risky and (quite frankly) idiotic investment practices due to deregulation in commercial and investment banking through the eighties and nineties (Graham-Leach-Bliley, MCA, and Garn-St. Germain in particular). Banks were lending to people who should not have been eligible for borrowing, and their mortgages were combined and shifted around into so many different convoluted securities and investments that no one truly knew the extent of what they were investing in.

The banks setting lower standards weren't doing it because they were victims. They were doing it to get what they could out of the loans before they passed it off to be someone else's problem. There's only so far you can pass the buck before it crumbles.
What astounds me most about the whole property bubble and subsequent credit crisis and 'stepping in' of the authorities leading to the mess we're in today is that people looking at the same facts can come to such diametrically opposed opinions as to its underlying causes.

As a Brit I read up on and watched some programmes about what happened with the RBS, the brink of collapse of which was one of the triggers to the bank bailout.  I can see that they were making irresponsible decisions and I can see why the 'obvious' answer is therefore to make rules that force them to act responsibly.   If rules that were not in place would have stopped them it follows they must have been 'too deregulated' and should be regulated more.

However that ignores the bigger picture, namely the amazing and astounding history of Freddie and Fannie from the 70s and the knock on effects.  My oversimplified understanding of it is of the way in which those government-set-up institutions got used to force lenders to lend irresponsibly to fulfill political agendas.  This then lead to masses of sub-prime mortgages no lenders wanted which is how the ludicrously huge figures were lent with virtually no chance of their ever being repaid.  Sure the private banks jumped on the bandwagon but the bulk of the time-bomb debts as I understand it came into existence as a direct consequence the heavy arm of politics in finance.  Add into the mix the banks' plucking of loans out of thin air and states' monopoly on currency and money supply and we end up with the lethal concoction that brought us to our knees.  And from what I understand the combination of QE with popular support for tying the banks up in even more regulation we're far from out from the forest yet.

Then along comes the knight in shining armour called Bitcoin... Smiley
754  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Alex Jones does real issues (gun rights and anti-depressant drugs) a dis-service on: January 25, 2013, 03:56:45 PM
As a Brit very familiar with Morgan and his ways, and as one who has seen some of Alex Jones' rants before I should have known better than to have sat through that one.  But it does intrigue me that Jones has such a following, as it puzzles me that Bush should ever have become president.  He's a 9/11 truther for f***s sake!  How can anybody with an ounce of sense take him seriously?

Over this side of the pond we rarely get to hear a rational argument put for the right to bear arms so it could potentially have been interesting and informative - but not with those two!  The US pro-gun lobby are painted here as lunatic red-neck conspiracy theorists.  It doesn't help the cause when the one who walks out to represent them just simply reinforces the stereotype!
755  Economy / Economics / Re: Why I think Bitcoin will not become an national currency on: January 24, 2013, 10:24:57 PM

 If you dial a wrong number you dial again whereas you get a bitcoin address wrong... ouch! 



Not really.  There's a clever checksum.

The probability that a mistyped address is accepted as being valid is 1 in 232, that is, approximately 1 in 4.29 billion.

I type addresses all the time..  if you get a digit or two wrong a proper wallet will tell you. 
Thanks for that - That's somewhat reassuring.  Amazing that I've read so much and spent so much time here over the last few months and hadn't come across that one.  Useful to know Smiley  Still prefer the QR solution though.
756  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 24, 2013, 07:28:15 PM
Probably just some nervous hands that dropped their load.  
I think we'll go up again.
I'm getting to like these little shake-outs.  Someone pointed out on one of these threads recently that it provides an opportunity to 'spread the joy' because those who have done well and who fear losing their gain are the most likely to jump ship if there are signs it's a bubble that's in the process of popping which gives new folk an opportunity to come on board at this price point ready for the next uplift.  And giving the nervous a chance to drop out means we don't end up at a high price with a lot of nervous people feeling like they're on a precipice so the 'bubble' is less likely to burst - in other words, the price that would have been a bubble is more likely to be supported and sustainable.

Having said all that I'd be quite happy if we hung out at this price range for a few weeks or months - yet somehow I don't see it.  The path from first coming across Bitcoin to wanting to buy substantial sums is for most quite a long process involving discussions with others along the way so there may be a whole network of people likely to eventually become big buyers, even before the person who introduced the network is just getting into his second (first reasonably sized) purchase.  If word-of-mouth results in exponential growth then surely the graph should inevitably eventually reflect that.
757  Economy / Speculation / Re: 1 bitcoin ~= £10 on: January 24, 2013, 04:46:38 PM
£12.20!!!!!!!!!!!!
758  Economy / Economics / Re: Why I think Bitcoin will not become an national currency on: January 24, 2013, 02:19:26 PM
QR Code are a start, yes. But still not many people know how QR codes work, and not many people have a QR Code App on their phones. Fundamentally, adoption is also limited by what big companies like Apple use policies to prevent BTC Apps to show up on the app store as well. The only way to get a good? wallet app is if you jailbreak your phone.
And the app is questionable in quality at best.

On QR codes I think it's just a matter of time.  People are getting more and more used to seeing them around on ads for URLs (a driving school in London even has them on their cars).  I think it is a far preferable solution than for instance phone numbers simply because it is far less error prone.  If you dial a wrong number you dial again whereas you get a bitcoin address wrong... ouch!  People got used to using email addresses and URLs but I'm guessing QR codes will be used for all these - and even maybe even phone numbers in due course.

What I'd like to see are all sites that give a bitcoin address also showing the QR code.  I tend to use my Blockchain app for day-to-day transactions even though I'm on a PC most of the time so it would be handy just to point and send.  Yesterday to buy S.Dice through Havelock I cut and paste the address into a Bitcoin QR generator I found so that I could pick that up from my smartphone.  I'm nervous enough cutting and pasting bitcoin addresses (just in case I've missed a character or that I'm pasting something from previous) let alone typing one into my smartphone!

How about an addition to the Windows dropdown menu whereby one can right click on any bitcoin address QR code and send it to our pre-selected Bitcoin wallet?

As for Apple products I get the impression the era when they could dictate due to their market lead what their users can and can't do is shortly to come to an end.  Let's not lose too much sleep over what they think!
759  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 23, 2013, 12:28:31 PM
Soon enough I'll be buying your single digit coins.  Wink

+1 Smiley
There must be someone out there who would let you both have them at that price but it certainly won't be me Smiley  And if there are as many out there as I'm guessing feel the same way there will simply be none for sale at those kind of prices in which case the price can't get back down there (other than if something supersedes or destroys Bitcoin, in which case you'd be daft buying them at any price).
760  Economy / Economics / Re: Why I think Bitcoin will not become an national currency on: January 22, 2013, 10:37:34 PM
...however we are still far in the deployment arena for BTC to be adopted by the masses.
the wallet should be layered and masked so people won't have to see a string of characters, just an e-walled with a simple name or number like a phone number (people are used to that)

Can't QR codes serve that purpose?
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