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Double top on the daily chart. The order book on Bitstamp still looks bullish. But that double top may be problematic for bulls.
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I'm willing to bet she's more than a little ashamed, and probably upset by some of the words and ideas thrown at her. If she were to reply, someone would probably accuse her of being a panhandler or a fraud. The only way to verify the latter is not the case would be to ask for personal information. Do you expect her to give that out, especially considering the treatment here? I'd be rather paranoid myself.
I thought of that, that's why I asked her to PM me, so it's at least not going to happen "on stage". But, yes, if she contacts me, I will ask for some personal information to at least make sure the story checks out by and large. I understand that's not ideal, but necessary I believe. I want to help her out because she sounded seriously distraught, but I'm not allowing myself to be taken advantage of either. In fact, one could argue that preventing the latter is what enables the former. Noble, but I don't know what kind of proof you could ask for that cannot be manipulated. Even if she showed up at your front door, there's no way to prove her story. It requires some amount of trust in her. Alternatively, you could poll everyone here to get distributed consensus on her validity.  |
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I'm willing to bet she's more than a little ashamed, and probably upset by some of the words and ideas thrown at her. If she were to reply, someone would probably accuse her of being a panhandler or a fraud. The only way to verify the latter is not the case would be to ask for personal information. Do you expect her to give that out, especially considering the treatment here? I'd be rather paranoid myself.
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Current price: $525.55
Forecast until my next post:
66.7% probability of going up.
33.3% probability of going down.
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Current price: $522.00
Forecast until my next post:
51.5% probability of going up.
48.5% probability of going down.
Thanks for the account tracking. It makes this thread more interesting. And it's very impressive that you are (so far) 100% correct. I assume you would show us if you were wrong and aren't hiding those, right? I have one loss in there. But it's small. I post the current price at time of post. So it's all as verifiable as Bitcoin's ledger. |
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Current price: $529.54
Forecast until my next post:
54.0% probability of going up.
46.0% probability of going down.
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Current price: $522.00
Forecast until my next post:
51.5% probability of going up.
48.5% probability of going down.
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we don't know what you do to come up with these numbers No, you don't. Trading system information is considered proprietary in the markets. If I gave out the basis of my systems to everyone they would quickly stop working as everyone used them with tweaks to front-run all the others. Working systems tend not to last forever. Working systems whose mechanics are released into the wild tend not to work past the end of the week. You can choose to ignore the systems, or you can look at track record to assess. This is how it's done in the real world. Welcome to Wall Street, Bitcoin. |
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Current price: $494.52
Forecast until my next post:
59.5% probability of going up.
40.5% probability of going down.
Current Account Values as of Last Prediction:
System 1: Account at $1.10. [Held BTC long forever. Account value is: $494.52/448.69 ($1.1021417905458111390938064142281)]
System 2: Account at $1.12. [Long from 498.53 to 494.52. Loss from trade is $4.01 per BTC, or 4.01/448.69 ($0.00893712808397780204595600525976)]
System 3: Account at $1.11. [Long from 498.53 to 494.52. Loss from trade is $4.01 per BTC, or 4.01/448.69 ($0.00893712808397780204595600525976)]
System 4: Account at $1.09. [Flat]
System 5: Account at $1.09. [Flat]
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Systems:
I will track profitability by showing profits for 4 systems using these signals, plus 1 that just holds long. The accounts will start with USD$1.00:
1) Holding 100% of the account long forever.
2) Trading 100% of the account long or short depending on which probability is greater than 50%.
3) Same as #2 but shorting is not allowed. Will go flat instead of short.
4) Trading 100% of the account long (up > 66.6%), short (down > 66.6%), or flat (neither is > 66.6%).
5) Same as #4 but shorting is not allowed. Will go flat instead of short.
Results:
Here are my first 8 forecasts:
Price at forecast: $448.69. Forecast: 81.9% prob of up, 18.1% prob of down
Price at forecast: $453.00. Forecast: 60.5% prob of up, 39.5% prob of down
Price at forecast: $455.40. Forecast: 76.3% prob of up, 23.7% prob of down
Price at forecast: $491.00. Forecast: 36.2% prob of up, 63.8% prob of down
Price at forecast: $486.70. Forecast: 56.1% prob of up, 43.9% prob of down
Price at forecast: $490.99. Forecast: 55.8% prob of up, 44.2% prob of down
Price at forecast: $492.20. Forecast: 61.6% prob of up, 38.4% prob of down
Price at forecast: $498.53. Forecast: 55.3% prob of up, 44.7% prob of down
All systems initially bought in with 1/448.69 BTC.
Current Account Values as of Last Prediction:
System 1: Account at $1.11. [Held BTC long forever. Account value is: $498.53/448.69 ($1.1110789186297889411397624194878)]
System 2: Account at $1.13. [Long from 448.69 to 491.00, short from 491.00 to 486.70, long from 486.70 to 498.53. Profit is $58.44 per BTC, or 58.44/448.69 ($0.13024582674006552408121420134168)]
System 3: Account at $1.12. [Long from 448.69 to 491.00, long from 486.70 to 498.53. Profit is $54.14 per BTC, or 54.14/448.69 ($0.12066237268492723261048831041476)]
System 4: Account at $1.09. [Long from 448.69 to 453.00, long from 455.40 to 491.00. Profit is $39.91 per BTC, or 39.91/448.69 ($0.08894782589315563083643495509149)]
System 5: Account at $1.09. [Long from 448.69 to 453.00, long from 455.40 to 491.00. Profit is $39.91 per BTC, or 39.91/448.69 ($0.08894782589315563083643495509149)]
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Current price: $498.53
Forecast until my next post:
55.3% probability of going up.
44.7% probability of going down.
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Current price: $492.20
Forecast until my next post:
61.6% probability of going up.
38.4% probability of going down.
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Whatever his method is, it seems to be working!
But also if the time interval is between posts, and his posts aren't made in set intervals, he can just say any prediction and be right by not posting again until the prediction is reflected by btc price So you're saying I just wait until the price goes my way? My last call is profitable already, and has been for quite a while. If you like you can look at a chart and the time of my posts for the other calls. I think you'll find no huge negative excursions. |
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Current price: $490.99
Forecast until my next post:
55.8% probability of going up.
44.2% probability of going down.
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Current price: $486.70
Forecast until my next post:
56.1% probability of going up.
43.9% probability of going down.
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Current price: $491.00
Forecast until my next post:
36.2% probability of going up.
63.8% probability of going down.
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I haven't yet decided if I will be sharing implementation details of my method. I will come back to this question later.
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I mean what is the general method that you are using? You don't have to go into the details of the specific implementation.
As stated in the first post, the method is "based on all orders in the Bitstamp order book". So it's based on the sitting orders, and not specifically on the price action of trade executions. |
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How are you making predictions? Those seem like very specific figures, which leads me to believe you are using some sort of mathematical calculations or software to generate this. I do something similar on my website ( www.btcpredictions.com) using artificial neural networks to make predictions. I'm very curious about what you are doing though  It's definitely mathematical. I could code it up, as it's purely mechanical. But right now it's so simple I haven't bothered. |
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These regular forecasts will be based on all orders in the Bitstamp order book. I will track accuracy based on the percentages given and the market movement after the prediction. For purposes of tracking profitability of the calls, I will assume we started with $1 and invested it completely based on the probability. If I show a 75% probability of going up and 25% going down, then the full amount of the virtual account is invested 75% long and 25% short. This effectively means the account is flat if the probabilities are 50% up and 50% down. I need to clarify what happens with a net short position: Should the probability of going down exceed the probability of going up, the virtual account will be net short. This will be done at leverage appropriate such that profit on a $1 drop when short will equal profit on a $1 rise when long. |
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