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961  Economy / Speculation / Re: I sold at $57, fml. on: April 17, 2013, 11:14:14 AM
what is this "sell" you speak of, sir?  Grin

Never met him.

962  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 17, 2013, 11:06:11 AM
Best dead cat bounce ever.  Kiss
963  Economy / Speculation / Re: lets play a game. what will the high be at this time tomorrow. on: April 17, 2013, 03:39:01 AM
You must be great at parties.  Grin

76.65
964  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker 2012 on: April 17, 2013, 03:35:47 AM
ok so everything is back to normal!

You could unlock the other thread and let them compete for superiority! Rename the other one "lite wall observer thread" or something! Wink


Smiley



I reckon "hardcore - walls only"

I liked the new thread. The 8 inches of page 1000-1-1--234-401 of this thread is a little annoying.

Pretty big ask wall at 78. will be interesting to see if that gets tested. Might have a nice run if that goes down.
965  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - April 2013 on: April 17, 2013, 02:36:03 AM
I'm worried someone will take them up on the offer and dump 15k BTC on the market. Even if it's a fake/bug wall, I'm still surprised no one has decided to test it. 30% of the people predicting the 24 hr low think we'll be below $50 within 20 hours.

So if no one will bite on the $70 mega buy out, they certainly won't be dumping if it slides into the $60 or $50s. At least for now the panic has left the room.

to buy or not to buy...
966  Economy / Speculation / Re: the crash is over? on: April 17, 2013, 02:31:48 AM
2011?

Was Beiber even born back then? Wasn't Regan president?

Past performance is not an indication of future results. If only it was that easy, we'd all be rich. Luckily I'm old enough I was there in 2011, this isn't remotely close to what happened then.

I'm still bearish.  Using the June 2011 "crash" as a reference for how this one will turn out, prices will continue to drop for some time.  Obviously things are different in many ways now, but I think the price will steadily drop for some time.  We'll see whether I'm wrong soon.   Wink
967  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - April 2013 on: April 17, 2013, 02:16:38 AM
Million Dollar (14K coin) Bidwall just went up @ $70!  Hope it holds.

Looks like we've run out of panic sellers.
968  Economy / Speculation / Re: Call the low for this time tomorrow and have .5btc (7pm EST) on: April 16, 2013, 11:26:19 PM
But we've already been lower then that, so that can't possibly be the low for 7pm tomorrow.

70.90
969  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: April 16, 2013, 11:18:07 PM
Unlocked now bitches.

 Grin
970  Economy / Speculation / Re: Call the low for this time tomorrow and have .5btc (7pm EST) on: April 16, 2013, 11:17:22 PM
$50.01
971  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Speculation Lounge on: April 16, 2013, 11:07:27 PM
Speculation Lounge
This is a free service provided by the bitcoin analysis community


Due to recent administrative changes to the new Wall Observer Thread, demand has been demonstrated for a topic that allows to discuss and analyze recent bitcoin fundamentals/price movements without being restricted to only TA and wall pics. These are certainly welcome, however feel free to also post any other randomness!

Stop trying to centralize discussion of a decentralized currency!
972  Economy / Speculation / Re: I predict the bottom to be $20 (price right now $72) on: April 16, 2013, 08:02:11 PM
In the past we went from $30 to $2, that is a factor of fifteen decrease. It was sparked by a hack at mtgox, but even before that the conditions were ripe for a bubble pop.

And here we are this week, down to $72 from $270. Again sparked by trouble at mtgox, but even before that the sheer speed of the increase in price and general mass hysteria indicated a bubble pop was coming.

History repeats itself.

$270/15 = $18. But this isn't an exact science so I will settle for a round $20.

Past performance is no an indication of future results.

It's impressive you've broken the entire bitcoin market just by dividing by 15 and rounding up to the nearest 20, but my dog thinks you're way off and he's predicting bitcoins will bottom out at 5 milk bones. I'm not sure who is right, but his estimate might be tastier, at least to him.
973  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: April 16, 2013, 05:28:33 PM
I see a drop coming, but not to test new lows.

Me too, my balls just got super itchy.
974  Economy / Speculation / Re: There is no price discovery... on: April 16, 2013, 05:11:15 PM
Uncle Gox will look out for us.  Grin

buyers are drying up. people are smartening up. why throw good money after bad
975  Economy / Speculation / Re: Your mistake on: April 16, 2013, 03:47:10 PM
You knew that the price would rise after the weekend, so you made sure to get your buy in before it was over.

What you failed to consider is the fact that everybody else was thinking the same thing.

Isn't everyone else buying too a good thing? Sorta sounds like a rally.
976  Economy / Speculation / Re: volitity will continue until... on: April 16, 2013, 02:30:57 PM

News flash, the price isn't based on fundamentals. There are no fundamentals. Bitcoin adoption has nothing to do with the price. Bitcoin adoption won't cause Bitcoin USD value to go up. They're not even related.


Yes. Fundamental value is based on adoption as a currency, which is driven by it's utility.  Bitcoin is better at being a currency than anything else mankind has ever had.  Volatility is only temporary.


....It's full of day traders, investors, speculators and manipulators.


What market isn't?  All of these players provide liquidity.


Fundamental value isn't based on adoption. People using it as a currency do the following.

Buyer wants to buy something that's $50. He buys $50 worth of Bitcoins and sends them to the seller. The seller sells the bitcoins and sends the good/service to the buyer.

That transaction, at it's fundamental level, works the same if Bitcoin is worth $5000 each or 5 cents each. Whether the buyer buys/sends 100000 BTC or 0.0001 BTC it doesn't really matter. People using it as a currency aren't buying more then they need and holding. They're using it as a currency not to become an investors/trading. The seller sells the BTC right away, he's running a business not becoming a day trader / speculator. Buying $50 of BTC and then selling $50 BTC a short time later isn't going to drive the market up. BTC currency transactions are pretty much market neutral.

There isn't a rise is BTC value or a drop in BTC value that had ANYTHING to do with adoption or usage. Never. Ever. Hasn't happened. You're a fool if you believe that.

My point was those "players" are driving the price, because there are no fundamentals. It's people playing the market, pushing around the price, influencing supply/demand to make money. Which is the scary part about BTC, it can be wildly popular, 5000% growth in adoption/usage, and the market price could be $5. That wouldn't matter to the people using it as a currency one bit. If BTC crashes to $5 tomorrow, the same amount of people will use to buy/sell goods as the day before. The belief that the exchange / market / mining needs to be profitable in order for BTC to succeed is a fallacy created by those people.
977  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: April 16, 2013, 02:16:50 PM
I think I overlooked something and made a mistake.

The power of faith. BTC isn't a normal commodity. In BTC, you have people who mine them, use them, trade them, there's a community, it's evolving. It's like having a creek in your backyard where you pan for gold. You exchange some of that gold for goods. You sell some of that gold on the market. You buy gold on the market. You're invested in gold in multiple ways. You're not just buying/selling it, you're living it.

With Bitcoin, people just aren't trading a commodity. A lot of people are also creating it, using it, and trading it. If you took BTC traders and threw them over in silver for a month, they'd have no interest, would view it totally differently, and would want to come back to BTC where they're invested, engaged, connected to it more then you can almost any commodity out there. The community growing pains, drama, hope, excitement, mix in a little anti-govt, a little fuck you banks, people are more emotionally invested in BTC then almost any market out there. People want to make money, they also want it to work, grow, they feel tied to Bitcoin's success which you just can't replicate anywhere else.

People will mine bitcoins at a loss. Just to be a part of it, just for the fun, just because. Regardless of what the market says, the forum says, there are people who are going to invest regardless of how bad or bleak things might ever get. There's a grassroots support system built into Bitcoins that just isn't going anyway. It's not going away at $50, it's not going away at $10, it's not going away at $2. Which why people are going to jump back in, not just to make money, but because they just really like Bitcoins.

978  Economy / Speculation / Re: volitity will continue until... on: April 16, 2013, 01:59:59 PM
75% in one day without something fundamental happening? Which market is that?

Bitcoin?

News flash, the price isn't based on fundamentals. There are no fundamentals. Bitcoin adoption has nothing to do with the price. Bitcoin adoption won't cause Bitcoin USD value to go up. They're not even related.

It's a pretend, unregulated exchange, trading a virtual currency. It's full of day traders, investors, speculators and manipulators. No one is trading based on real data. People are trading to make money by playing the markets swings. It's supply/demand. More sellers then buyers, it goes down. More buyers then sellers, it goes up. Someone with 5-10mil can push the price wherever they want. The only data people use is "price is going up, GOOD!" and "price is going down, BAD". Makes manipulation real easy, you just have to give it a shove and people bite hook line and sinker.

Trying to explain BTC swings is like trying to explain why women bleed for 5 days and don't die. Who the fuck knows.

979  Economy / Speculation / Re: volitity will continue until... on: April 16, 2013, 01:52:42 PM


1) BTC is shortable and has a legitimate futures market. It's nuts if you can't hedge your positions.

2) A marketcap of at least 10 Billion

No.
980  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why are people selling? on: April 16, 2013, 12:57:01 PM
I just cannot understand that. Fundamentals are stronger than ever and everyday new businesses accept Bitcoins.

I'm confused. How do you make money without selling?
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