I've been reading Human Action but haven't finished yet. I read quite a lot on mises.org and other places which of-course refer to Mises's work.


I think the man was intolerant for a good reason. He escapes the Nazis to find more socialists elsewhere, surely he would not be happy with them?

The financial mess we are in isn't markets failing, it's the failure for us to have free markets. What we have is a fascist system designed to make bankers and other corporate interest groups rich at the expense of everyone else. It's the failure of corporatism and of-course it fails. It's the failure of central planning being used to make the rich richer and poor poorer. Actually it makes everyone poorer. The economy doesn't go anywhere fast. Some people say this is a good thing, that the governments must stop economic progress.

In summary, the economies are corporatist and not free market so don't be surprised.

All fiat currencies rely on the fact that people accept it already in exchange. If you tried making a private sector fiat currency, it would fail. No one would find value in pieces of paper unless they were backed by something which gave it value. Bitcoin is backed by security,  anonymity and freedom from central control. It would have picked up momentum through curious interest at one point but things begin to get serious.

Socialism is used to describe a broad range of ideas. I regard those that wish for redistribution of wealth to be socialists for examples, others would not.


Was the Nazi reference on purpose?

Are you still betting on a short position cypherdoc?

I'm sure next week gold will push past $1900 again with Obama talking about increasing deficit spending on stupid job plans.

The OP appears to be a luddite and this was my point.

A conclusion reached from a video game?

Government could only have formed with the desire for power. Followers could have been gained through bribes but also fear and confusion. Old governments were largely kept together through the armies and hence the leaders required to satisfy the army. They ruled by might and with an iron fist.

Everyone is going to be saying "head and shoulders pattern" now.

The industrial revolution was completely characterised by recession.

The recent recession was completely caused by technological advancements.

That was sarcasm.

No idea what the OP has been reading.

If you buy a $100 (principal) treasury bond for $98 (discounted) with a yield of 2% for example, then the return is $4 over the lifetime which is a 4.08% return. If you received no interest on the bond and sold it for twice the value, $196, then the return would then become -46.87% unless you could sell it for higher in which case it becomes a bissare game of pass the financial bomb.

Doubling price does not half the actual return in repayments inc. interest.

The yields shown on US treasuries aren't negative so they couldn't have shot up majorly in price unless fraud is involved?

Well, if you say the federal reserve will stop supporting them, which is nonsense, then you'd expect the yields to increase.

You are contradicting yourself. Earlier you were saying that we shouldn't be surprised if the fed wanted to increase interest rates and would stop monetary stimulus.

The monetary stimulus can only go so far, especially as the debt increases constantly. Don't expect yield to go down forever. I am sure they have hit a low. I wont bet on it because the best bet is gold and silver.

And what does this create? Well inflation of-course.

Apparently in 2009 the federal reserve bought the equivalence to 80% of the newly issued treasuries. What do you think to this?

Paradox in deflation? No, you lost me completely.

You think people would buy up treasuries but not gold in troubled times?

Now are troubled times.

US treasury yields surely aren't going to go lower or much lower? 'Til now it's been the federal reserve that has been sustaining them ultimately. Now they are expensive and give almost no yield, so I think US treasuries are now the way to kill wealth if you wanted to.

You would agree with this as you think everything is going into deflation. I am fine with the idea that treasuries have maxed out.

But wait!


Oh dear. Your words are either very contradictory or it is true that markets are completely illogical which isn't true. There is a reason why gold has been going up and it will continue!

The US treasuries are being defaulted on now in the sense that the federal reserve is devaluing the dollar. The yields on treasuries are negative in real terms. US treasuries are nice if you like to lose wealth. 

You mean we could do without war but people wont choose it?

I don't predict a single world fiat currency either. I never meant that with whatever I said.

I didn't predict it would happen. At most I'd expect some form of fiat which is used in many countries but obviously not all. An extension to the Euro idea under one central bank.

More likely to see return to gold standards.

A default on US treasuries in surely a long way off. It's true they'd take money from pension funds etc. before they get to the bonds.

Also defaulting on anything, from pensions to bonds would not (necessarily at least) mean the end of debt.

If US treasuries are seen as a safe haven, one safe haven destroyed in good for gold.

I would expect by the time that would happen there is a major chance the US gov would revert to gold as money but perhaps a larger chance that some new fiat would be invented. Its scary when I hear about the ideas of a world central banks and perhaps a world fiat currency.  

Also if it is shown to people the results of the failed fiat debt experiment, they will want to go into gold, and not back into fiat just because it seems they've stopped inflating the currency for now.