ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[mechs]

I bought a few more shares at <2.

The divs alone are worth it at this low price.

Only if the dividends are maintained.  

I think with bitfury shipping and more of the competitors with October/November shipping dates, ASICMiner does not seem to be giving out news indicating it will be able to keep up with this next generation.  It was easy when their competition was BFL and Avalon (2 poorly run companies), but now serious competition has come and minig about to be commoditized.  

You can quote me on this - Asicminer is at 2.2 right now.  It will see 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC.  

I'll quote it.  Gentlemans wager of 1BTC?  You pick the exchange.

I am more like 0.5BTC sure;)  BTCT the exchange on the ASICMINER-PT shares.  
I win if any trades for 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC
You win if vice-versa
deall?

Sounds good! No short selling on your part.

I'll keep to my word.  If you worried, we can escrow the bets.

Congrats, mechs - wager paid this morning

kibbles is a man of his word and made good on his wager.

[mechs]

(...) he announced the 2nd gen would be 55/45 (...)

I don't remember he announced that, and I can't find any record of him saying this in his history. Could you link me to that announcement?

Of course.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2246754#msg2246754

I actually fucked up - he said "65/55" not "55/45". My mistake - all 3 are ITRS nodes or half nodes.

If it does turn out to be 65/55 while the competition will have 28nm tech going out around the same time, well then we will be going back to sub-1 values.  I really hope that is not the case.

[Fordee]

I'll keep to my word.  If you worried, we can escrow the bets.

Congrats, mechs - wager paid this morning

Someone should def be giving Kibbles a +1 trust.. 

In the bitcoin world, this is def worth a trust.

[JimiQ84]

(...) he announced the 2nd gen would be 55/45 (...)

I don't remember he announced that, and I can't find any record of him saying this in his history. Could you link me to that announcement?

Of course.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2246754#msg2246754

I actually fucked up - he said "65/55" not "55/45". My mistake - all 3 are ITRS nodes or half nodes.

If it does turn out to be 65/55 while the competition will have 28nm tech going out around the same time, well then we will be going back to sub-1 values.  I really hope that is not the case.

KNC's 28nm has worse parameters than Bitfury's 55nm. So node size really doesn't say anything

[Vycid]

(...) he announced the 2nd gen would be 55/45 (...)

I don't remember he announced that, and I can't find any record of him saying this in his history. Could you link me to that announcement?

Of course.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2246754#msg2246754

I actually fucked up - he said "65/55" not "55/45". My mistake - all 3 are ITRS nodes or half nodes.

If it does turn out to be 65/55 while the competition will have 28nm tech going out around the same time, well then we will be going back to sub-1 values.  I really hope that is not the case.

KNC's 28nm has worse parameters than Bitfury's 55nm. So node size really doesn't say anything

That's because KNC's design is an FPGA conversion. Bitfury's is a full-custom, just like Cointerra's and HashFast's and ASICMiner's will be.

(So, yeah, the node says a lot, just not everything.)

[runeks]

(...) he announced the 2nd gen would be 55/45 (...)

I don't remember he announced that, and I can't find any record of him saying this in his history. Could you link me to that announcement?

Of course.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2246754#msg2246754

I actually fucked up - he said "65/55" not "55/45". My mistake - all 3 are ITRS nodes or half nodes.

If it does turn out to be 65/55 while the competition will have 28nm tech going out around the same time, well then we will be going back to sub-1 values.  I really hope that is not the case.

KNC's 28nm has worse parameters than Bitfury's 55nm. So node size really doesn't say anything

That's because KNC's design is an FPGA conversion. Bitfury's is a full-custom, just like Cointerra's and HashFast's and ASICMiner's will be.

(So, yeah, the node says a lot, just not everything.)

You never go full custom.

Except with ASICs.

[bbxx]

Knc update:

No redunds from now
No chips yet
Proof of hashing coming in days

Great news for AM shareholders and miners.

[JimiQ84]

even bitfury was few weeks late, I guess KnC will ship within this year.

[twentyseventy]

Knc update:

No redunds from now
No chips yet
Proof of hashing coming in days

Great news for AM shareholders and miners.

I haven't followed the KnC thing, but here all the late bets are a No.

Love that people are willing to still bet no for a .3% return

[romerun]

the knc pre-order was suspicious since the started, it goes like customer can pay with payal/cc, but delivery date is a bit more than 3 months, which is beyond the refundable period of paypal/cc. A calculated move, I guess.

[User705]

the knc pre-order was suspicious since the started, it goes like customer can pay with payal/cc, but delivery date is a bit more than 3 months, which is beyond the refundable period of paypal/cc. A calculated move, I guess.

for CC orders through PayPal you can chargeback the CC for a long time if it is non-delivery.  You will however kiss your paypal account good bye.

[Jayjay04]

Credit card refund are always the best solution if you used it !

[Vycid]

the knc pre-order was suspicious since the started, it goes like customer can pay with payal/cc, but delivery date is a bit more than 3 months, which is beyond the refundable period of paypal/cc. A calculated move, I guess.

for CC orders through PayPal you can chargeback the CC for a long time if it is non-delivery.  You will however kiss your paypal account good bye.

Probably worth it for an order worth multiple thousands...

Would they block you from ever starting a new account?

[isimme]

the knc pre-order was suspicious since the started, it goes like customer can pay with payal/cc, but delivery date is a bit more than 3 months, which is beyond the refundable period of paypal/cc. A calculated move, I guess.

for CC orders through PayPal you can chargeback the CC for a long time if it is non-delivery.  You will however kiss your paypal account good bye.

In my experience this wasn't true.
I contacted Paypal about a refund with BFL and
they said it was beyond 90 days so they could not do anything,
but they did recommend contacting my credit card company which I did.
My credit card company credited back my card with a little bit of hassle.
Since then I have used my Paypal a bunch of times with no issues or any kind of blowback.

[User705]

It's likely that there was money to get from BFL and you basically forced paypal to go get it through a chargeback but I don't see them leaving your account in the positive if they wouldn't be able to recover.

[mechs]

I'll keep to my word.  If you worried, we can escrow the bets.

Congrats, mechs - wager paid this morning

Someone should def be giving Kibbles a +1 trust.. 

In the bitcoin world, this is def worth a trust.

That was the first thing I did

[lophie]

Ok guys so back to the main subject. ASICMINER once more hit a new bottom plus BTCT is closing soon! but it seems the price is kinda going a little bit up or stabilizing because of the update. Now here comes the question the mining and hardware sales are still kinda low....

So for the next few weeks prior to the new blades hashing. Are we to expect even lower divs?

I personally do think that. What are your opinions?

[conv3rsion]

Ok guys so back to the main subject. ASICMINER once more hit a new bottom plus BTCT is closing soon! but it seems the price is kinda going a little bit up or stabilizing because of the update. Now here comes the question the mining and hardware sales are still kinda low....

So for the next few weeks prior to the new blades hashing. Are we to expect even lower divs?

I personally do think that. What are your opinions?

depends how fast the blade prices come down. Right now they are too expensive for your average miner.

[VeeMiner]

Ok guys so back to the main subject. ASICMINER once more hit a new bottom plus BTCT is closing soon! but it seems the price is kinda going a little bit up or stabilizing because of the update. Now here comes the question the mining and hardware sales are still kinda low....

So for the next few weeks prior to the new blades hashing. Are we to expect even lower divs?

I personally do think that. What are your opinions?

depends how fast the blade prices come down. Right now they are too expensive for your average miner.

there are couple important facts that we know now

- main datacenter can only hold around 50 Thash so the solo hashing won't bring nearly as much as it did before
- there will be 500 Thash incoming for sale and franchising next month
- there will be Gen 2 chips coming november/december

so I guess untill the 500 Thash worth of chips arrives we will not see any high divs. After that we will get pretty good dividends and gen 2 will definitely be a game changer, it's the only way to stay competitive in such a competitive area

[supert]

Well I bottled it and asked burnside to transfer my shares to direct so I can sleep at night.

Not sure if that was a good idea...