ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[Rival]

Just how hard is that? To wait three weeks? Honestly ...........

lets ask BFL customers how hard is to wait for 2 weeks.

They didn't wait 2 weeks. They waited 8 months. apples and oranges.

Although it appears that waiting game is coming to an end. BFL is shipping metric asstons now.

One concept later BFL purchasers failed to recognize was that by the time they got their order, BFL would have shipped all of the orders before them in the queue. That is massive hash that would come online prior to getting theirs to plug in, running the difficulty sky-high. The only real winners were those who ordered very early. Many early pre-orders had to wait a year, but even so they still got the first mover advantage. Everyone else, well, not so much. In bitcoinland this advantage cannot be overstated. You see it again and again and again.

The hash attributable to delivered BFL devices is rather huge but tends to be ignored because of the blind hatred so many have for the company. And it is accelerating fairly rapidly. It would not surprise me if in a few months you can order as many Jallys or singles you want from BFL and get them delivered in a few days. That will have a pretty serious effect on other ASIC providers, AM included.

[JimiQ84]

Just how hard is that? To wait three weeks? Honestly ...........

lets ask BFL customers how hard is to wait for 2 weeks.

They didn't wait 2 weeks. They waited 8 months. apples and oranges.

Although it appears that waiting game is coming to an end. BFL is shipping metric asstons now.

One concept later BFL purchasers failed to recognize was that by the time they got their order, BFL would have shipped all of the orders before them in the queue. That is massive hash that would come online prior to getting theirs to plug in, running the difficulty sky-high. The only real winners were those who ordered very early. Many early pre-orders had to wait a year, but even so they still got the first mover advantage. Everyone else, well, not so much. In bitcoinland this advantage cannot be overstated. You see it again and again and again.

The hash attributable to delivered BFL devices is rather huge but tends to be ignored because of the blind hatred so many have for the company. And it is accelerating fairly rapidly. It would not surprise me if in a few months you can order as many Jallys or singles you want from BFL and get them delivered in a few days. That will have a pretty serious effect on other ASIC providers, AM included.

BFL won't be problem since AM's production price is invincible

[Rival]

BFL won't be problem since AM's production price is invincible

This is why I own shares in AM.

[velacreations]

Having to live with weak dividends for "entire weeks". I know mining is is short-term game but if all you can think about is the next couple of weeks, you really shouldn't be investing in anything at all. Its ridiculous.

well, that's how the market reacts.  It may seem unreasonable to us, especially when you look back, but that's the way it is.

[tarmi]

Just how hard is that? To wait three weeks? Honestly ...........

lets ask BFL customers how hard is to wait for 2 weeks.

They didn't wait 2 weeks. They waited 8 months. apples and oranges.

my point:

with difficulty skyrocketing BFL hardware became obsolete.

now, friedcat is doing the same thing with shareholders. take in consideration that a lot of hardware is going to be deployed this month.

asic bubble is coming to an end. who will buy that 130 nm hardware?

[binaryFate]

asic bubble is coming to an end. who will buy that 130 nm hardware?

Everybody, if price is set properly.

[tarmi]

asic bubble is coming to an end. who will buy that 130 nm hardware?

Everybody, if price is set properly.

that is true only if the price takes in consideration 30 % network growth every 2 weeks.

and I doubt that will happen.

[ninjarobot]

asic bubble is coming to an end. who will buy that 130 nm hardware?

Everybody, if price is set properly.

Not really. I'd argue most amateur miners (the ones that typically buy AM) are also residential miners.

If, like me, you can only pull so much energy out of the wall (lets say 1KW/h) it is not attractive to go with 130nm chips because it limits the total hashrate you can get out of that energy budget. The block eruptors use 7.5W/GH for example. Compare that with HashFast or Cointerra at 0.65W/GH.

A budget of 1000W/h buys me:
133GH/s with AM 130nm ASICs
1500GH/s with a 28nm manufacturers ASIC.

133GH/s is going to be a joke by the end of the year. So yes, most people will stop buying AM.
(Perhaps there is miner that moves to Siberia and scoops up all the cheap 130nm AM products if the price is low enough, i.e. no profit margin on hardware)

[VeeMiner]

asic bubble is coming to an end. who will buy that 130 nm hardware?

Everybody, if price is set properly.

Not really. I'd argue most amateur miners (the ones that typically buy AM) are also residential miners.

If, like me, you can only pull so much energy out of the wall (lets say 1KW/h) it is not attractive to go with 130nm chips because it limits the total hashrate you can get out of that energy budget. The block eruptors use 7.5W/GH for example. Compare that with HashFast or Cointerra at 0.65W/GH.

A budget of 1000W/h buys me:
133GH/s with AM 130nm ASICs
1500GH/s with a 28nm manufacturers ASIC.

133GH/s is going to be a joke by the end of the year. So yes, most people will stop buying AM.
(Perhaps there is miner that moves to Siberia and scoops up all the cheap 130nm AM products if the price is low enough, i.e. no profit margin on hardware)

HashFast and Cointerra have no product as yet. And AM will have second gen chips so there is nothing much to worry about here.

[binaryFate]

asic bubble is coming to an end. who will buy that 130 nm hardware?

Everybody, if price is set properly.

Not really. I'd argue most amateur miners (the ones that typically buy AM) are also residential miners.

If, like me, you can only pull so much energy out of the wall (lets say 1KW/h) it is not attractive to go with 130nm chips because it limits the total hashrate you can get out of that energy budget. The block eruptors use 7.5W/GH for example. Compare that with HashFast or Cointerra at 0.65W/GH.

A budget of 1000W/h buys me:
133GH/s with AM 130nm ASICs
1500GH/s with a 28nm manufacturers ASIC.

133GH/s is going to be a joke by the end of the year. So yes, most people will stop buying AM.
(Perhaps there is miner that moves to Siberia and scoops up all the cheap 130nm AM products if the price is low enough, i.e. no profit margin on hardware)

HashFast and Cointerra have no product as yet. And AM will have second gen chips so there is nothing much to worry about here.

Agreed, that is the reason FC said gen2 will come "in time".

[velacreations]

HashFast and Cointerra have no product as yet. And AM will have second gen chips so there is nothing much to worry about here.

+1

You can wait around for new generation until the end of the year, and MAYBE it will arrive on time, or you can buy AM right now.  That's the choice, and people are choosing to have their hardware now. 

[mechs]

HashFast and Cointerra have no product as yet. And AM will have second gen chips so there is nothing much to worry about here.

+1

You can wait around for new generation until the end of the year, and MAYBE it will arrive on time, or you can buy AM right now.  That's the choice, and people are choosing to have their hardware now. 

This loss of btct.co is going to hurt the value of AM and all other securities - it was the most liquid and trusted exchange.  Liquidity does have its value.  I suppose the upside is less counterparty risk.

[tinus42]

HashFast and Cointerra have no product as yet. And AM will have second gen chips so there is nothing much to worry about here.

+1

You can wait around for new generation until the end of the year, and MAYBE it will arrive on time, or you can buy AM right now.  That's the choice, and people are choosing to have their hardware now. 

This loss of btct.co is going to hurt the value of AM and all other securities - it was the most liquid and trusted exchange.  Liquidity does have its value.  I suppose the upside is less counterparty risk.

I wonder if the price of direct shares will go higher than the passthroughs. As there is no risk of exchange closure or from the PT operator running away with the money. Only risk of FC/AM not honouring the shares. But if that would ever happen passthroughs will instantly become worthless. So there is less risk which should fetch a premium.

[mechs]

HashFast and Cointerra have no product as yet. And AM will have second gen chips so there is nothing much to worry about here.

+1

You can wait around for new generation until the end of the year, and MAYBE it will arrive on time, or you can buy AM right now.  That's the choice, and people are choosing to have their hardware now. 

This loss of btct.co is going to hurt the value of AM and all other securities - it was the most liquid and trusted exchange.  Liquidity does have its value.  I suppose the upside is less counterparty risk.

I wonder if the price of direct shares will go higher than the passthroughs. As there is no risk of exchange closure or from the PT operator running away with the money. Only risk of FC/AM not honouring the shares. But if that would ever happen passthroughs will instantly become worthless. So there is less risk which should fetch a premium.

I think direct shares will continue to trade at a discount due to lack of liquidity.  I suppose if the transfer gets botched and people lose shares from this, then the opposite effect you mentioned may occur.

[Vycid]

If we can say that AM is coming out with 2nd gen chips in December (55/45 nm), then we can say that Cointerra and HashFast are coming out with 3rd gen chips in December (28 nm).

Something to keep in mind.

[velacreations]

If we can say that AM is coming out with 2nd gen chips in December (55/45 nm), then we can say that Cointerra and HashFast are coming out with 3rd gen chips in December (28 nm).

Something to keep in mind.

do we know that AM's 2nd Gen are 55/45?  I think the last time FC talked about specs like that, it was several months ago, so plans may have changed.

In any case, 28nm is Gen1 for the other 2

[Vycid]

If we can say that AM is coming out with 2nd gen chips in December (55/45 nm), then we can say that Cointerra and HashFast are coming out with 3rd gen chips in December (28 nm).

Something to keep in mind.

do we know that AM's 2nd Gen are 55/45?  I think the last time FC talked about specs like that, it was several months ago, so plans may have changed.

In any case, 28nm is Gen1 for the other 2

You can't change plans for an ASIC like that. You can't just call up the foundry and say, "uhhh, actually I want my chips made with 28nm HPP thanks", even if your design would work with a simple optical shrink. You'd also need a new thermal design.

The planning for all this at least 6 months in advance of the delivery date. FC would have needed to be executing the change at about the same time he announced the 2nd gen would be 55/45 - and given FC's communication style, he definitely would not have specified a process if he wasn't sure.

And if Cointerra is releasing a Gen 1 chip, then Valve's upcoming Steambox is a Generation 1 console, unlike its 8th generation competitors.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_video_game_consoles_(eighth_generation)

(I note that there have been two previous Xboxes and this latest one will be part of the eighth generation.)

[bitfair]

(...) he announced the 2nd gen would be 55/45 (...)

I don't remember he announced that, and I can't find any record of him saying this in his history. Could you link me to that announcement?

[Vycid]

(...) he announced the 2nd gen would be 55/45 (...)

I don't remember he announced that, and I can't find any record of him saying this in his history. Could you link me to that announcement?

Of course.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2246754#msg2246754

I actually fucked up - he said "65/55" not "55/45". My mistake - all 3 are ITRS nodes or half nodes.

[kibblesnbits]

I bought a few more shares at <2.

The divs alone are worth it at this low price.

Only if the dividends are maintained.  

I think with bitfury shipping and more of the competitors with October/November shipping dates, ASICMiner does not seem to be giving out news indicating it will be able to keep up with this next generation.  It was easy when their competition was BFL and Avalon (2 poorly run companies), but now serious competition has come and minig about to be commoditized.  

You can quote me on this - Asicminer is at 2.2 right now.  It will see 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC.  

I'll quote it.  Gentlemans wager of 1BTC?  You pick the exchange.

I am more like 0.5BTC sure;)  BTCT the exchange on the ASICMINER-PT shares.  
I win if any trades for 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC
You win if vice-versa
deall?

Sounds good! No short selling on your part.

I'll keep to my word.  If you worried, we can escrow the bets.

Congrats, mechs - wager paid this morning