I take the opposite attitude which is kids need to learn risk vs reward anyway.  Most kids will learn a card game, the gamble for money would not be acceptable for children but in any case they neither earn or spend in that way.

There is no age for quitting gambling, when you can no longer add up properly perhaps.  IF you feel judgement has gone then maybe then.  I think most old people play games for considerable amounts of time but not in a big way so much but many games lower key spread out over time.   Older people tend to play for the social dynamic not the advantageous part of the prize and how big that might .

Gambling can keep an active mind, its potentially helpful for everyone so thats the perfect satisfaction level where you enjoy the game and money is the bonus from being so good at this game.

I would not have watched some sports games if I had not bet on the sequence of games leading upto and after the bet upon game.  So I would miss that experience if I was not betting as Im usually more focused on the result and advantage of either team etc.

None of them are losing on the money question and Jake Paul is going win on reputation even if he does suffer a loss so its hard to see a negative for either of them.  Its only the age which is some concern and that can be cleared beforehand I guess.

I like how Tyson points out immediately I dont think Jake Paul is quicker.  The age advantage is irrefutable overall sure but how does some unskilled use their advantages, they waste them typically.   A skilled opponent will account for the negatives they must overcome and prepare for it but I was going to say the same thing Tyson doesnt appear slower then Jake Paul.  It'd be a massive point for Paul if that were true but cant say I believe that at this point.

We built a great staging area for a continuation of a bull run, I think this market is certainly bullish.  However near term its merely been consolidating in that higher area which should be a very good thing for the future, there is no definite we go up but its wrong to see BTC  as negative just for the hesitation.


Early feb on weekly bars.

This is really good price action, its built a whole scaffolding area in these recent weeks and despite the negative sells the recovery on each of those lows is higher each time.   We could be building that scaffolding just to play hangman or it could stage a rocket launch from here.   I have too much of a negative slant to my personal bias because I always believe we are stronger once we go back to 50k and lose the sellers, shed those and then you really do have the strongest bull run.   I know most would prefer for us to just go straight up but Im more the type who believes in hammering steel is not a fast process, strength takes some time to achieve.

All the highest prices people are talking and estimating has to be will require the strongest of foundations.  I would prefer that scenario occur not the fast up and fast down scenario, I dont want fast up and 2 years spent languishing after that as this is not really the best outcome.    Though of course if you can buy on the lows, that is the best advantage later so every price I see as valid in its occurrence and necessity by the market forces.

Good close to the week I think, but I rely on the repeats for a trade to be valid.  Its a given we will repeat in cycles the dips and peaks to price action.    My take on this week was its positively acted in placing higher lows in the price action.  However the certainty that we have left behind the old ATH area of volume and beaten it to the point it is now support, I dont see thats beyond doubt so the market with doubt will certainly test support before it moves on.

Some believe if support isnt tested today in every way then even if we do rise, it must at a time in future come back to test what has not yet been proven.   Any gap or weakness in an area of volume left open in the price action is where an attack or attempt to sell will return to.    I dont imagine BTC is that logical or ordered but maybe it doesnt have to be, I need more experience and skill to really be sure but its no question BTC and many prices go in circles.

We're in a box of price action right now, you can draw a square around it quite easily and simply and if thats true we are due to repeat till we can break the habit.

Be super careful on double checking, basic thing to do is use another browser really.  Its fast and easy thing to do that that will alter your setup without too much hassle imo.     A modern thing is bad extensions that implement bad code, some are reviewed and then removed from active usage and they do try to keep all the code in check for bad instances.     There's probably a really good guide (on this forum even) to all the sites and ways to check your machine, I remember Malwarebytes is one place for example but somebody will give a whole list and ways to check.  

Ultimately I have to say windows is not an especially secure operating system, if you are behind NAT mostly you will be ok but Linux is far superior for security in my experience.     Its best to assume you do need to check and follow the most secure route or method recommended an attacker will rely on people taking the shortest most convenient route to any task.

Phishing is extremely popular because it works, I used to speak to someone whose entire job was to just employ the knowledge he had on techniques of how to compromise a website or even an entire work site and its network.  They get paid well as I understand it because it is such an ongoing vulnerability and its been that way for a long time, I don't personally think the situation improved apart from there are a few good companies.   I found Sophos was a good company but they may have withdrawn their best products to paid or business license only I didn't check recently but there are good operations out there trying to help people to spot everything from mal ware to viruses etc.

I doubt Trump has more broad support now then in 2016 when he was coming off his TV show fame and general idea of business man makes USA great etc.   The background picture now is not a cross country support based victory but more selective republican support.   Im not surprised his party cant field another candidate, he is the ex president after all but I dont assume others outside the party are switching to Trump.

If people are not switching to Trump, over to republicans as a vote and Trump has lost at least a bit of prior support from various negatives related to the court trials etc.   That doesnt add up to a win imo.

Trump cannot duplicate the surprise electoral college result.  Im going to be surprised if in an all vote count he has the majority and Biden is the minority, if I see that I will consider the idea again.   Trump isnt being elected but he is increasingly popular with some voters I get that.

Final point I have to remember myself, the bet and its odds especially in a pari-mutuel setup of betting has its own dynamics and trend to it.   Its a tricky one  I think the whole deal is interesting bet to do anyway, I try to stay neutral on the whole politics of it all of course.

Money is very ironic, you cannot take it with you is the famous saying and biggest clue why it isn't all about money in the end.     The fact money is not what you ultimately want but the things that money can buy perhaps far more is why money constantly circulates as a means of communicating demand vs supply in an open market economy.


These are really important factors, the guiding backing for determining value I try to keep in mind is security.  A man does not work his whole life to hold money which declines in value while he sleeps, rests and attempts to retire from that life long work.  What use is the money if its a leaky bucket that ends up empty, then money becomes quite worthless at least to the person who must retain their wealth to pay bills in old age.  Its a harsh lesson to learn in life that money really isnt that reliable better to find things which keep their value and hold onto them as much as possible.

Money is for paying bills really, you spend cash you lose that debt you regain your freedom and the money was useful but dont lean on money as if its solid beyond that payment idea imo.

BTC is slithering across the line here with its passing of the ATH it moved ahead and pulled back quite uncertain still.  It could be a positive signal moving into next week if it can manage to do so.  Only this last week 7 days ago did BTC close above 69k on a weekly bar closing basis and thats just the one weekly bar which isnt enough to provide confidence to the market especially.

For now till BTC confirms confidently above prior ATH as something of a support line we should doubt the gains stay solid I think is fair conclusion.

Ironically BTC was accelerated by gambling if anything, its provided a regular day in and day out source of revenue and liquidity across the whole blockchain that underpinned demand when required even if price was down it was there.  That effect isnt purely a crypto thing its acknowledged for many years, gambling, alcohol and death (funeral trade healthcare etc.) all are considered a recession proof type industry for its regularity.   Vices perhaps but taxes themselves as income for a government or a factor within an economy, trade balance or whatever finance dynamic the taxes are highly variable where as gambling has its uses of something of an ironic backbone in this respect.

I recognize of course people lose money on gambling but also it could be argued in many cases they wouldnt have any BTC to begin with if it wasnt for the usage of gambling, holding a balance or holding tokens etc.  I guess its ironic, I know of someone who only had BTC because of wanting to hire a server in 2013 so he bought a load to pay the server off years ahead.   His balance outlived his interest in hosting whatever game it was so he had the BTC server fees left over unused and it was 2020 era before he popped up and in that hype remembered he still had the balance sitting there now worth just a tiny bit more.

Main deal with BTC is despite the fast moves, it is best to stick around and make the amounts held last over years or you miss the main bulk of how it gains.  Too much turbulence kicks a hell of a lot of dust and people lose vision of the big gains along the way and lose out if they dont stay the course.   Once BTC is trying to close this week out with a price closing above the old ATH, that'd be positive but its crawling a little too much in the effort to do so seems like; to be confirmed basically.

It seems quite valid to be buying right now, BTC isnt in any determined down trend and we know BTC price history reflects a record of rises or going sideways over the majority of its existence with some harsh corrections.   We dont have the harsh correction, it probably is quite valid to buy in this period even while uncertain of exact direction near to mid term.


The main question to the buying is that you have the capital spare to hold BTC for this year and possibly next year, I dont see a reason not to go ahead if that much is true.   If you hope to buy now and sell in profit by end of this month or even next month then you are taking risks we cant really back as nobody knows that one for sure but longer term the trajectory becomes more assured to stay within a reflection of prior gains, thats fair to do.

You could buy now and find price is some amount lower afterwards but the biggest failure more commonly repeated is not buying at all from the fear of any fall.  People continually hesitate to buy BTC because it is so fast moving, its normal fear of the volatility but unfortunately its a greater loss to not be involved then try and take some bumps during some kind of hold.

Its fine to be care free on the gambling if you can segregate the money you place in that game to play.  The moment you find you are spending money you could not afford to lose its time to pull the cord because then its gone too far.   If a game is played and you arent allowed to play it however you feel like is it any fun anymore, most people dont appreciate too many rules like that.  

The important part is not to let the game play you, you give a certain amount of spare cash and thats it.  Learn to walk away is the most important lesson, sometimes its just not your day and especially when new that would happen alot to most people.  Some people I deliberately never mention any gambling or games Im betting on, sports bet or anything because I dont want to mention something their reactive personality is really not best suited for or they just told me they stepped away from gambling so I'd be a bad person to rub it in their faces really.

Its hard to justify luxury in a purely working way only when rich does it start to make sense because one person only has so much time on their hands each day before they must sleep rest and wait to work the next day etc.

   Eventually if you are rich enough you can say my private Jet plane is essential to me its not even a luxury anymore and I wont argue in some cases.  Time is not a resource they can purchase any more of at any price hence any tool which can save time becomes worthwhile even while still expensive & across many normally luxury items;  thats justified logical thinking I'd agree with.

To some extent this whole altered product purpose is part of what makes capitalism I suppose.  If you are poor, if you have no fulltime job perhaps then you do have this time element which others while busy and maybe 'rich' are lacking.  Hence time to learn or somehow provide a time saving product is a possibility.  Maybe time is the ultimate real commodity and the rest is what we trade as a proxy for that, I've heard something very similar said by old rich businessmen I think.

The current high prices registering on a closing basis are dragging us away from the prior ATH.  The highs declining are all in line with a moving average which is a rough weekly average for BTC, any time we remain trading below that particular measure I assume BTC is actively negative in its trend at least short term I find that to be true.

I did think upto a month ago that the 50 day average would eventually come into play and we've been juggling these same prices in a circle for so long now over 30 days that now that 50 day MA is on the lows.    So moving average cant be resistance, its just an indicator so nothing strongly retaining us exactly but untill we make new prices & do something different I assume the circle carries on.

 Rapid movement can still be zero velocity on an wider time frame, I'm sure some rely on that but its irritating to observe and draw much conclusion from.

The way BTC is hesitating currently would not lead you to believe it might make 190k this year in 8 months or so.    However I will still accept it is possible if this current price action formation for BTC breaks out like a flag bullish to the upside and continues onwards upwards in a similar fashion then I accept it continues to be a possibility.

Average gain monthly required would be 15k, no losses accounted for.   Thats rocket fuel talking not normality


The more boring probability but also likely necessity for the best health of Bitcoin is slow and steady, a pack horse donkey ascent is safer then a rocket fired for the heavens.  No matter how impatient people are and wanting the most all about right now, the slower route where we are going to wind our way up the mountain taking rests along the way as needed & however far we may get this is actually for the best.

I think the argument is wider then just Trump, because of tax codes its better to be in debt then declare a profit and pay tax on it.   If a sequence of bankruptcies occurred it was probably related to a systemic change in that state or area, tax codes could be part of it any change there can be great in justifying the ongoing operations and bias.   Not just within the state but if nearby states alter their laws to make their own business more competitive then it reduce the advantages that were previously true in Atlantic City for so long.

Add in also the quite obvious competition ongoing from online gambling, it used to be gambling was so restricted anywhere that allowed it had quite a bonus to their operations from that government regulatory dynamic putting them in the spot light.   I think that restriction overall can be said to be lifting generally.    I think in China they ban gambling apart from certain regions only they are allowed a more lax regime but thats a communist authoritarian setup of law and dictatorship where as the laws in other countries are unlikely to be quite the same stranglehold on the common economy.

Dont forget the most vital of all, Hold Hold Hold.  Its literally gold standard advice that you will just do better holding onto something rather the constant speculation as to buy or sell.  Very few people should speculate rather then hold because not many of us are of that caliber to do better then the market.   Also you will just have your own priorities when to buy or sell which conflict with the actual best timing in the cycle, your ability to be objective is unlikely to remain intact unfortunately.

The best advice is certainly hold onto a well performing asset, despite all the steep negative declines BTC has had along the way its overall done incredibly well.  It does not make sense to sell a high performing asset in order to hold Dollars which are like candy floss in the rain comparatively.  If you mean to consume it immediately then sure people I get have bills  to be paid but in general don't sell don't imagine you are a great speculator of assets, commodities or anything in particular.

We used to bet during school all the time, mostly on breaks but sometimes people have no lesson that period so some days there would be a card game being played continually with some group of people.    Was never caught or called out as a big deal as the the amounts bet were never really too big for it to be a big deal.   If anyone had started arguing or fallen out over it then maybe it would all fallen apart but its a friendly game so no problems for anyone in the end.  

Cards relates to statistics which I was taking at the time so surely I had diplomatic immunity from prosecution as I was doing a practical school experiment arguably.   Never had to test that argument luckily but I think its true you can learn from calculating the odds on gambling games, its not the negative people always want to call it out as imo.

Have to agree thats a smart measure, you never really want to have people pay to play or for access to free speech.  There should be a better standard then that in a public forum ideally of course, I realize money makes business in plenty of other normal avenues but it did seem incorrect to go the money route on blue marks.

Good to see they can admit some mistakes perhaps, everybody makes them of course.   Also it was contradictory to what he said about advertising and how they would not be biased by the demands of big money companies,.  Quite admirable  though idealistic to the point of being unrealistic as everywhere there is advertising & its a kind of overt bias on purpose.
  In the West at least we do accept this deliberate bias as needed as part of capitalism but doesn't make it right and some of it is just lies to put it nicely.

 There's definitely an argument with two sides to it on this advertising question for pretty much every website on the internet.   Advertising on one kind or another pre dates Bitcoin for required funding in quite a bit of activity.

You cannot win on every bet, you could you come out break even.  The outlier bets usually have higher odds which means you place smaller amounts on what you dont really think will happen, if it occurs then the win covers the cost of all other bets.

Some of the moves within a month recently have been pretty extreme, we've been spoiled as often previous it was predictable and fairly slow maybe not moving much at all from middle of month to the end.  Now you have to contend with both greater movement and the volatility that runs in the blood of BTC.

Right this moment just simple observation for BTC is its constricting range, a snake coils before it strikes   I would like it to move first, recent high 69k recent low 66k so beyond  those would greater things happen     [closing price 4hr bar]

When the bull is charging BTC will gain 10k in a day and people will go yes of course and carry on, it wont be as big a deal as really it should be.    The hype phase to BTC movements will be distorting to what is really correct long term thats how you know it wont last really, at the time it will be both too easy to jump the gun and sell earlier then is most profitable but also people will get over confident.

Its a knife edge, hard to be correct in such times of course I hope not to sell too early but last bull market I think I did.  2016 I definitely sold too early though I called it very much alive and kicking ready for a rise in early in 2017 but I never sold at the best price that year as it was chaos and hard to transact as I remember there's always details to why its so volatile.