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201  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 02, 2016, 10:16:14 AM
Thanks whap. Smiley

And SAR has flipped to support on the 4hr, EMA has crossed on the 1 and 2 hr.....and...if it wasn't for the fact I think TA is completely useless in crypto, I'd reckon this is looking bullish.
202  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 02, 2016, 09:51:31 AM
And the 4h chart is looking more like a pennant (and less like a dinosaur Wink ).....what are the odds we test the ATH this weekend.
203  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 02, 2016, 07:40:38 AM
295K XMR available under 0.01875
6400+ BTC bids
lots of shorts taken, possibly well represented within that pile of resistance. 
powder keg.




Wondering if we are in for another w/e like the last one.

Up to .03 by Monday....hahahaa
204  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 02, 2016, 04:45:52 AM
The next year in development and acceptance is key.    

So you're saying the next 8766 hours are critical?

Surely, the next 525, 960 953 minutes are critical?
205  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 02, 2016, 03:00:37 AM
Yes, that's all good.

But believe me, the sensationalist pieces will follow -- that's not being either pessimistic or contrarian, simply experienced with the print medium.  Its the obvious angle for editors to spice up a dry tech/economics story.

In some ways its not a problem, it simply reflects the same rite of passage BTC went through -- and of course it does mean a lot of writers are going to have volte face on how they describe BTC (ie they sold it to the masses as anonymous but hey turns out it isn't).

I wonder if the smart editor would pick a different angle. I mean, what bitcoin went through has been done so many times now. It's really beating a dead horse, and I just wonder if that's a good sell for a news-outlet. If I was an editor that only had page-views / newspaper sales and a happy board in mind, then I*m not even sure I'd choose that whole approach and sell again. But I am giving them too much credit...

Smart editors....ha ha ha

"If it bleeds, it leads"....similarly sex, crime and drugs get eyeballs.

Also, most editors are in thrall to their proprietors' political views/ambitions.  This (XMR) is low hanging fruit for rightwing news outlets.

Way, way too much credit Smiley

My point is: a tsunami of these stories is swelling on the horizon but don't worry, in the long run it will be good for XMR.
206  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 02, 2016, 01:37:25 AM
Yes, that's all good.

But believe me, the sensationalist pieces will follow -- that's not being either pessimistic or contrarian, simply experienced with the print medium.  Its the obvious angle for editors to spice up a dry tech/economics story.

In some ways its not a problem, it simply reflects the same rite of passage BTC went through -- and of course it does mean a lot of writers are going to have volte face on how they describe BTC (ie they sold it to the masses as anonymous but hey turns out it isn't).
207  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 01, 2016, 07:49:36 AM
The four hour looks like a pennant forming to me.

But it could equally be a dinosaur Wink
208  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: XMR Monero price poll - what is XMR/BTC rate by Dec-31-2016 ?? on: September 01, 2016, 07:42:38 AM
@rpietila. A sample of 100 votes from bitcointalk will not be a good measure of what might statistically happen. There is the argument that the sample is tainted knowing that this is bitcointalk. Smiley

It is a fun exercise but not to be taken seriously especially by the naive people who lurk here.

A sample of 100 is of course relatively small but it depends on what you are looking for and what you do with the data.

Given the nature of the forum and simplicity of the poll, its difficult to create any controls or breakdowns of the data but I disagree that the results are tainted by the fact this is BTCtalk - the results are going to be more informed than if you had run the questionnaire on a gardening forum or in a supermarket.

Knowing Risto he has knowledge of or access to statistical tools and wouldn't simply draw conclusions from the raw data but run analysis such as GLMs or PCAs if he really wanted to utilise the findings.
209  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 31, 2016, 08:14:09 AM
BAck into the 140s but someone does seem to be determined not to let the price rise too quickly/at all.  EDIT - back down before I can even finish posting.

The next week will be interesting. 

I suspect potential XMR users on AB have now bought their coins, so will vendors sell their new fangled Monero straightaway or hold?  I suspect most have cashflow demands that necessitate the former. Until a behavioural pattern emerges I believe some volatility may be ahead - good if you're a trading addict, painful for us hodlers.

I'm also expecting a lot of press exposure - some of it negative - "New anonymous coin empowers dealers, thieves and terrorists". 

Fun, fun, fun
210  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 31, 2016, 05:16:05 AM
@Dafur,
Well the Crypto gods were kind...hope you had some orders in the high one twenties and filled they were.

I've been all out at .0154, waiting to get back in but not sure how low it's going... would be nice to get back in at .008 or below

Ach....now that's just being greedy. Much better to take a smaller profit, be in the position you want and have the potential to trade further if needs be. 

But each to their own. Smiley

211  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 31, 2016, 04:44:24 AM
@Dafur,
Well the Crypto gods were kind...hope you had some orders in the high one twenties and filled they were.
212  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 30, 2016, 01:31:32 PM
I dumped half of my XMR last night at .0140 because I was convinced it would struggle to go up and have a mini-crash / correction.... but this morning its now at .0155 ....UGH!

Still uncertain whether it'll rise or fall from this point. What do you guys think??  Huh

I considered it myself earlier today and thought better of it; while you can trick yourself into being 'reactive' the best strategy is often to stick with your original plan eg "I'm going to buy and see where we are in a week/month/year".  Its difficult when you watch the charts hawkishly not to get caught up in short term trends.

I'm sure the cryptogods will grant you a buy back dip Smiley
213  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 30, 2016, 12:07:29 PM
Thanks for the replies....I would point out that I don't even know if the questions I was asking were the right questions to ask.
214  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 30, 2016, 09:48:29 AM
Roger Ver makes a good point here
https://forum.bitcoin.com/monero/monero-price-speculation-thread-t10274.html#p29049

"Monero... hasn't been heavily tested with actual users yet.
It would only take one thing to go wrong technically for most, or all of the market cap to disappear."

The thoughts of those more technically minded....?



That is just the usual thing with investment advices in crypto. Buy as much as you can afford to lose. Any crypo can be worth really little if there is some mathematical fault in it that make it work insecure.
Bitcoin had more years to find such flaws. Monero only 2. So from this angle Monero is riskier.

Thanks, but that's not what I was asking and I don't think what RV was alluding to (read the rest of his post)

In 2013 BTC went 'mainstream' and even though it had had years to prepare the infrastructure wasn't there when heavy traffic ramped up, either technical, administrative or social.  "why didnt we get the infrastructure sorted out first" was a common comment while MK bounced off with everyone's money, frappacino in hand.  BTC is still recovering and the segwit/block size debate shows technical infrastructure was low down the list when everyone was raking in cash.

So, I'm asking very specifically for those technically minded, has XMR learnt from BTCs mistakes, is the network prepared to handle 4, 8, 16 times more daily tx, is the network stable, is a 51% attack an issue.....I don't know if any of these things are even the questions to ask.  And I appreciate this is the speculation thread and I should mooch over the other forum.  But these questions do impact on ones investment.
215  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 30, 2016, 04:45:59 AM
Roger Ver makes a good point here
https://forum.bitcoin.com/monero/monero-price-speculation-thread-t10274.html#p29049

"Monero... hasn't been heavily tested with actual users yet.
It would only take one thing to go wrong technically for most, or all of the market cap to disappear."

The thoughts of those more technically minded....?


translation:

I took profit and am gonna buy at a lower pricepoint now.

Just cynical  Tongue Tongue Kiss
216  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 30, 2016, 04:44:51 AM
Looks like I might risk cutting my paw on the knife again tonight.

217  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 30, 2016, 04:40:57 AM
Roger Ver makes a good point here
https://forum.bitcoin.com/monero/monero-price-speculation-thread-t10274.html#p29049

"Monero... hasn't been heavily tested with actual users yet.
It would only take one thing to go wrong technically for most, or all of the market cap to disappear."

The thoughts of those more technically minded....?
218  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 30, 2016, 03:18:02 AM
Gosh, what happened?

When I went to bed the resident monkey botherer was predicting an ATH within "6 to 8 hours" - no doubt those numbers were used in a semantically objective way  Cheesy Cheesy Tongue

I had a look on AlphaBay yesterday and the number of vendors offering to use XMR is 'yuuugge'....and if ever a cohort appreciated anonymity.  The question is whether the buyers can get their shit together to purchase XMR.
219  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 29, 2016, 01:53:28 PM

I still think the upward pressure is dominant until closer to the 1 September event.  Buy rumor, sell news.  It is a very powerful rule of thumb, and explains much of the naively paradoxical event response curves of open-market securities.  To ignore that rule of thumb, I require powerful reasons, which are lacking here.


It's a good rule of thumb, but in this situation,  isn't the news already out for days? That XMR gets adopted by DNMs isn't a rumor anymore.  Or are you talking about something other than DN adoption of XMR that will be revealed on September 1st?

Draw the lines where you will. As a dictum it is not semantically objective.  The point is that early recipients of information are advantaged relative to late ones.  Most of the people who may buy Monero on this news haven't learned of it yet, as witness all the folks wandering into Monero threads  asking what is going on.

Estimating where we are on that diffusion curve, and what are the delays in the resulting cash flows, is not trivial, but:  I think the disillusionment of the unrealistically optimistic buyers doesn't kick in until traffic numbers come in.  Until they have facts in which to find disappointment, they can blithely hold in expectation of their future gain.


"As a dictum it is not semantically objective." Sorry but that's just gibberish.

You go on to say that people 'wander in' and basically have not heard the news...ergo we have moved past rumour.
 

220  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 29, 2016, 01:41:51 PM
I still think the upward pressure is dominant until closer to the 1 September event.  Buy rumor, sell news.  It is a very powerful rule of thumb, and explains much of the naively paradoxical event response curves of open-market securities.  To ignore that rule of thumb, I require powerful reasons, which are lacking here.



How about: the impending adoption of XMR by AlphaBay is not rumour, it has been 'news' for a week now.  Come 1st Sept it will move from being 'news' to being reality (and then I suppose the real test begins). So, perhaps your powerful rule of thumb is just not relevant to this scenario.

EDIT Paratox beat me to it.
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