921
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 19, 2013, 06:18:29 AM
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The answer is arbitrage.
Tell me how you'd do it, please. Would this work: * Buy BTC with USD outside China * Sell the BTC in China for RMB * Use the RMB to buy goods or stock in Chinese market * Sell goods/stock outside China for USD or the other way around. Not for amateurs, of course. This would equalize prices but according to some "exchange rate" that is not the official one, due to extra costs. Which is what we see, right? They track each other but not at the official exchange rate. Yes until your btcChina account gets frozen Has your account been frozen? I've been trying to change my phone number and they have gone all silent on me...coins stuck on there...getting a bit fidgety.
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922
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 19, 2013, 06:16:55 AM
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they have a point nan
when I woke up this morning there were 50 pages unread
just can't keep up
Yeah, sorry for being a grumpy old mare. OK, well the gist of it isn't great. I was pretty bullish about getting RMB out of China and after the "fall of the wall" considered getting funds into China…all in the sake of arb. However, the communication I had with BTChina was fruitless. I tried via Bank of China in Australia but they wont play and I tried via some of my HK contacts but again BTChina said no, only mainland China bank branches. So, I guess Loaded is going to hit them over the head with a suitcase of money…see if that changes their position. EDIT: One other thing to add is that BitPirate rmbtb exchange was amenable (lets say) but I haven't heard anything from him lately...I am really interested in what his take is on recent developments.
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923
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Economy / Speculation / Re: The inevitable collapse of hubris
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on: December 19, 2013, 05:21:35 AM
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The thing is in 2011 some people bought in at the top of the 'bubble'...it then crashed, they moaned and bitched but by April 2013 their investment had multiplied eight fold...which was when some other folk invested before it crashed again. They bitched and moaned but the wise ones held and eight months later their investment had tripled.
So, if you bought in at $1200....just wait a while...you'll still get a better return than at your local bank.
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924
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 19, 2013, 05:09:23 AM
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* Buy BTC with USD outside China * Sell the BTC in China for RMB * Use the RMB to buy goods or stock in Chinese market * Sell goods/stock outside China for USD
That's a losing proposition. You are buying BTC high and selling them low. The opposite direction involves buying BTC with RMB which is challenging right now. However, you might get a good deal from miners in China. Yes, I did post my results from research into getting funds into China yesterday (impossible unless you have a bank account in mainland China) but no-one seemed remotely interested. I'll go back to my knitting.
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925
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Economy / Speculation / Re: An Open Message to all Bitcoin Investors
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on: December 19, 2013, 05:02:22 AM
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...there lots of people that are semi religious about the decentralised store of value aspect...
that's a point I have raised before...there are many aspects of BTC which resemble a cult and its a shame because its this sort of behaviour which is probably one of BTC's major weaknesses. While I agree with much of what the OP says with regard to having patience and fortitude, to stick with something new through thick and thin, there is also a touch of blind adherence that in a different scenario would be classed as fundamentalism.
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926
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Economy / Speculation / Re: the " stage of a buble" looking so accurate
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on: December 19, 2013, 04:45:10 AM
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What goat said.
Every rise/fall/correction this chart gets pulled out... of course it looks accurate but it has no time scale...you can zoom in/out pretty much any stock and get it to fit into this pattern...that's because crowds follow the same patterns, which is essentially Elliot wave theory - when any stock rises suddenly it tends to fall in this pattern.
Just hodl and enjoy your holidays.
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927
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 19, 2013, 03:37:48 AM
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I doctor friend once told me that it's much healthier to shit squatting than to sit on toilets as westerners do.... something about long term effects, organ health..... something....
Supposedly it's better for the plumbing because less force is required. Someone just needs to design a raised platform to place around western styled toilets so we can get the "squatting" experience here the USA. Sell it on an infomercial and talk about the health benefits. BAM!! One of the first things to freak you out when you go to China is going to the loo and finding footprints on the toilet seat...gives a whole new meaning to 'wiping the seat down'.
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929
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 19, 2013, 12:56:26 AM
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Mornin' all So, we went up, then we went back down. Sales of xanax went UP. Lots of whisky went down. Anything else I should know about. so you saw the HODL! thread? no, whats the HODL! thread?....sounds like its for dyslexic traders EDIT: right got it....hilarious...liquered up traders LOL HODLING is probably for the best. HAven't made it thru all ten pages but seems we have a new meme. Loving this
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930
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 19, 2013, 12:53:06 AM
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Well I just consulted my trading team and asked them if I should by more bitcoins or wait for a lower price? They have analyzed the information available and said "Buy more bitcoins daddy". When all else fails you listen to the 5 and two year olds. They know what's up!
Last Bull Run my 6 year old asked in earnest are the bulls or the bears winning today Dady That's awesome! In lieu of any sensible financial advice here, I asked my cat what to do and she said: "hold, remember this is Bitcoin". Which shows cats are pretty smart.
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932
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 18, 2013, 12:10:07 PM
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Well, the good news is there will now be an even larger base of people in bitcoin who've been hardened by experience. The bad news is, a lot more people will be joining us in the next year or two.
Why is that bad news...although to be honest I think every bubble/crash scares of most potential casual investors/users. The climb back to 1000USD+ may be long and arduous. Or of course this being BTC...March.
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935
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: December 18, 2013, 11:53:59 AM
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Damn this bloody hindsight and cautiousness. I should have gone all fiat yesterday evening at 700, and I definitely should have gone all fiat this morning at 583. Now we are down to 430. If I had more balls (which I don't have after my earlier trades), I would have made between 10 and 20 BTC today. As it is, I only made 1.5BTC And now I definitely think is too late to sell. Waiting for a rebound and a second dip.
Don't beat yourself up with hypotheticals...I could have bought GBP8K worth of BTC in 2011 but didn't...I've spent many an afternoon floating in the pool imagining how different life would have been but its a pointless exercise. As we say in Australia, "build a bridge and get over it" And btw great to see a fellow btc conservationist...good on ya!!
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