rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[aminorex]

Bitcoin is quite clearly going 2 da moon long term. The question is when. When will we hit the 10k mark and finally be catapulted into bitcoin mainstream usage and big company acceptance like amazon? It will happen eventually, the signs are all there. The question is when. This year or next year or 5 years from now?

Depends on when the seller at 563 on bfx runs out of coins.  As far as I can tell his initials are S.N.  He has controlled the global price of bitcoin for about 36 hours so far.

[1714769907]

1714769907

[chriswilmer]

Bitcoin is quite clearly going 2 da moon long term. The question is when. When will we hit the 10k mark and finally be catapulted into bitcoin mainstream usage and big company acceptance like amazon? It will happen eventually, the signs are all there. The question is when. This year or next year or 5 years from now?

Depends on when the seller at 563 on bfx runs out of coins.  As far as I can tell his initials are S.N.  He has controlled the global price of bitcoin for about 36 hours so far.

How are you inferring the volume of coins sold at 563? (and how any do you estimate have been sold at that price?)

[Pruden]

Depends on when the seller at 563 on bfx runs out of coins.  As far as I can tell his initials are S.N.  He has controlled the global price of bitcoin for about 36 hours so far.

You better have the assistance of a couple forensic journalists backing that claim. 

Now seriously, do you think this has something to do with Bitstamp being cheaper than BTC-e?

[cAPSLOCK]

Bitcoin is quite clearly going 2 da moon long term. The question is when. When will we hit the 10k mark and finally be catapulted into bitcoin mainstream usage and big company acceptance like amazon? It will happen eventually, the signs are all there. The question is when. This year or next year or 5 years from now?

Depends on when the seller at 563 on bfx runs out of coins.  As far as I can tell his initials are S.N.  He has controlled the global price of bitcoin for about 36 hours so far.

Probably a mountain-goat building up a cash position to go along with the needed bitcoin position to (re)open gox.com

[aminorex]

How are you inferring the volume of coins sold at 563? (and how any do you estimate have been sold at that price?)

I think somewhere between 35 and 50 % of the bfx volume in the past 40 hours has gone through a dark ask, which has moved between 572, 557, and now 563 and holding.   Probably about 4000 coins so far, with 1500 of those moving at 563.   Using only public information, it is a very subjective estimate.  It is based on estimating what bitstamp volume should be on the basis of comparable periods of low volatility at similar daytime hours in the recent past, assuming that 30% of the coins moved are resold higher on bitstamp, and sanity-checking the estimate by comparison to the total volumes on bfx.

[chriswilmer]

How are you inferring the volume of coins sold at 563? (and how any do you estimate have been sold at that price?)

I think somewhere between 35 and 50 % of the bfx volume in the past 40 hours has gone through a dark ask, which has moved between 572, 557, and now 563 and holding.   Probably about 4000 coins so far, with 1500 of those moving at 563.   Using only public information, it is a very subjective estimate.  It is based on estimating what bitstamp volume should be on the basis of comparable periods of low volatility at similar daytime hours in the recent past, assuming that 30% of the coins moved are resold higher on bitstamp, and sanity-checking the estimate by comparison to the total volumes on bfx.

Yeah, seems right. I wonder why dark bids/asks aren't a more common feature on exchanges (i.e., why doesn't Bitstamp offer them natively)?

[aminorex]

Probably a mountain-goat building up a cash position to go along with the needed bitcoin position to (re)open gox.com

If it is occurring as a result of a court-order (which would explain the disregard for profit motive during execution) then we can look forward to this continuing for at least two weeks (as selling half the coins would arrive at a balanced liquidity position from which to restart operations).

It may be that a responsible court officer would report that the enterprise funds were being squandered, and put an end to the mindless dump before that, but not until Monday JST at least.

[bucktotal]

Im not sure how to post graphs here, but has anybody else noticed that the recent drop has squarely bounced off that almighty trendline that BTCe sports so very well. The one that underlines the daily wedge.

MAbc would know what im talking about.

any sign of reversal at this stage would be significant for so many reasons....

I think the chinese that sold on the FUD want their bitcoins back too.

yes, feels like july 21, 2013 up in here 

[AnonyMint]

In practice "off-chain" just means "use something else that's better".

Not exclusively. Offchain also includes centralized exchanges such as a Mt.Gox, instead of decentralized ones (which are in development and don't exist yet). Such offchain exchanges lead to fractional reserves, fraud, and thus government regulation and take over.

Eventually these offchains are banks. Then we are no longer using Bitcoin, rather government regulated fractional reserves called "Bitcoin". This is a very likely outcome, because dumb masses will never want to use decentralized exchanges.They prefer Coinbase and a bank to "secure" their coins.

Then it conflicts with the fundamentals. Bitcoin usage is growing exponentially and the new users/investors need bitcoins. When they buy them, the price rises. Any TA that does not take this into account is harmful for the financial well-being of its user

Assuming no exchange is creating a massive amount of fractional reserves. Fractional reserves are possible when people are not transacting their coins, just buy and hold on the exchange such as Coinbase. But Coinbase is honest (?).

The more valuable Bitcoin becomes, the more incentive to create Bitcoins from thin air. You really don't think the banksters will just sit idle and watch you become $billionaires at their expense do you?

They've been doing this racket for 100s of years, and you expect them to just roll over and play dead?

The time of BTC is upon us if we accept that the masses will use it if offchain regulated businesses provide fixes to all the useability problems with Bitcoin onchain (e.g. 10 - 60 minute transactions, private keys stolen, etc).

I seriously doubt "offchain regulated businesses" will help Bitcoin or ANYTHING.

I've asked Bitcoin developers why the BTC fees are so high for small transactions. I know some of you will want to argue about this but you might as well admit the truth: Sending big amounts of BTC is cheap, sending small amounts is expensive. It just does not work for micropayments. Bitcoin developers argument is that "but OFFCHAIN TRANSACTIONS!".

Guess what? Fiat cash is a good example of an Offchain Transaction. I know this is what Bitcoin developers mean when they use that term but it's true: Cash transactions are not on the blockchain since they do not involve Bitcoin. Other "offchain" (as in NOT bitcoin) alternatives will come along and win the market for micropayments (where Bitcoin can not compete). Telling people to use "offchain" solutions to problems Bitcoin can not solve is in my opinion the same as saying "don't use Bitcoin, use something else".

I've studied this in technical (not to be confused with chart TA) detail. Zero transactions fees are possible in a properly designed altcoin but not in Bitcoin's design. There are crucial things that can never change in Bitcoin's design any more.

Offchain can improve other things such as the 10 - 60 minute transaction delay for Bitcoin. It is also possible to design an altcoin without such a significant delay so "nearly instant" online micropayments can remain decentralized and on chain.

There will be serious competitors to Bitcoin, but see below...

Then it conflicts with the fundamentals. Bitcoin usage is growing exponentially and the new users/investors need bitcoins. When they buy them, the price rises. Any TA that does not take this into account is harmful for the financial well-being of its user

This is so super important.  Bitcoin's fundamentals are very compelling.  Until something comes along that solves nearly ALL of bitcoin's problems and overtakes it's growing network effect bitcoin continues to have a lot of built in fundamental propulsive power.  Considering that many solutions to bicoin's shortcomings will be layers on top of bitcoin, there is also a possibility, in my opinion, that within bitcoin itself and its community is the solution to it's own problems.

The solution to the capital gains problem is Bitcoin becomes fiat. This could happen eventually and investors could pile now in under that assumption.

I see the mainstream crypto-currency has to be the government sanctioned one. There is no other way around that. Might as well just accept it, and think about the implications for yourself as an investor, specifically the witchhunt against all wealth coming as the governments tax+confiscate into oblivion and the lack of anonymity in Bitcoin as compared to gold or some hypothetical altcoin (apparently not DarkCoin nor CoinJoin though).

Some have argued they don't care if society confiscates (taxes) 90% if their gains are 1000X. That is still 100X gains.

Then again if there is an anonymous coin that gives you 10,000X (because it is smaller and you are earlier to invest), and you don't face taxes nor confiscation, those investors are going to be 100X higher on the totem pole, e.g. $billionaires versus $10 millionaires. Think private jets instead of old manors.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-22/imfs-property-tax-hike-proposal-comes-true-uk-imposing-mansion-tax-soon-year

It's very easy - I have often done it myself - to get so caught up into advocating one's position that one fails to see the incoherencies in ones own case.  An old saying is apposite:  There are none so blind as those who will not see.  

When you are making a case to a broad audience as well as to a correspondent -- as is typical in a forum post -- your case is not well served if you refuse to see what all the other readers can easily see.  Denial is not an effective strategy, either logically or rhetorically.  

I see very clearly why you support the mainstream crypto-currency and normally that is the correct move (also you probably have no deep programming or technical skills so you couldn't change the situation if you were so inclined, you are reliant on the trend for your stored monetary capital, i.e. No Money Exists Without the Majority). I also see very clearly that every 80 years or so, the mainstream goes in chaos with confiscation and war.

So I see failure of the mainstream 2016ish. Why should I board the Titantic?

Should Google have never improved upon Yahoo? Should Facebook have not taken over from Friendster and Myspace? Can you be sure Bitcoin is an exception to the usual rule that the first one is almost never the winning one.

Groupthink
Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome.

group·think
ˈgro͞opˌTHiNGk/
noun
noun: groupthink; noun: group-think

    1.
    the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or individual responsibility.

[chessnut]

Critical levels are about to be broken. 3400 on Huobi marks the last piece of resistance in price history short term. 545 Bitstamp, 550 BFX.

[Biodom]

Everybody have targets that are too conservative both on the downside and upside. I think that, if 2011 scenario will repeat itself, the downside could be $69-70. I am not predicting this at all, just pointing out the result of a similar correction in %%.
On the other hand, if Mr Silbert is to be believed and serious money is about to be invested in BTC, we can easily be at $5-10K in 12 mo, current doldrums notwithstanding.

[RAJSALLIN]

So consensus here is that bitcom could go to $70, an altcoin could be a much better investment and TA is a much more reliable price indicator than FA for btc. Mmmmkay, guess I have to sell all my coins now. Or actually, should probably do the opposite of what people are thinking here.

[podyx]

3d looks like it's about to make hodlers cry the next few days..



Those $600+ BTC sure looked good a week ago, didn't they, longs? It seems apparent that the secret descending triangle in yellow on the above chart will break down.

Looks like its gonna break up in my eyes

[TERA]

[windjc]

So consensus here is that bitcom could go to $70, an altcoin could be a much better investment and TA is a much more reliable price indicator than FA for btc. Mmmmkay, guess I have to sell all my coins now. Or actually, should probably do the opposite of what people are thinking here.

My personal opinion is that TA is always a better indicator than FA.

When I say "final bottom" will probably be closer to $200-250 then that is on a timescale a tad longer than most people's patience. As for $70, I don't see that in the cards but there could be one in the deck anyway.

If you think $550 is the bottom because we've spent some time here on the 60 minute then please do laugh at us and HODL and buy more bitcoins. I'm fine with it. My charts indicate that $550 is in no way a super bottom that will start a rally to $100000 or whatever people are dreaming of these days.

Right, TA is better than FA because bitcoin is a stock. Or a commodity. Or a stock. Or a commodity. Not a technology. Got it.

[RAJSALLIN]

So consensus here is that bitcom could go to $70, an altcoin could be a much better investment and TA is a much more reliable price indicator than FA for btc. Mmmmkay, guess I have to sell all my coins now. Or actually, should probably do the opposite of what people are thinking here.

My personal opinion is that TA is always a better indicator than FA.

When I say "final bottom" will probably be closer to $200-250 then that is on a timescale a tad longer than most people's patience. As for $70, I don't see that in the cards but there could be one in the deck anyway.

If you think $550 is the bottom because we've spent some time here on the 60 minute then please do laugh at us and HODL and buy more bitcoins. I'm fine with it. My charts indicate that $550 is in no way a super bottom that will start a rally to $100000 or whatever people are dreaming of these days.

If you think this isn't the bottom since we haven't spent enough time on the 60 minute shananagan TA red line upside down bar chart then by all means don't HODL. My FA indicates that bitcoin is growing exponentially and exponential growth is one puppy you don't want to **** with.

[rpietila]

When I say "final bottom" will probably be closer to $200-250 then that is on a timescale a tad longer than most people's patience. As for $70, I don't see that in the cards but there could be one in the deck anyway.

If you think $550 is the bottom because we've spent some time here on the 60 minute then please do laugh at us and HODL and buy more bitcoins. I'm fine with it. My charts indicate that $550 is in no way a super bottom that will start a rally to $100000 or whatever people are dreaming of these days.

If you think this isn't the bottom since we haven't spent enough time on the 60 minute shananagan TA red line upside down bar chart then by all means don't HODL. My FA indicates that bitcoin is growing exponentially and exponential growth is one puppy you don't want to **** with.

We are approaching the event that the last technical analysts sell when they are expecting a break down.

What happens when there are no technical analysts left? 

[TERA]

We are approaching the event where the last technical analysts and investors attempt to front-run the next cycle and get in on the next rally.

What happens when there are no front runners left, and it becomes apparent that there is in-fact no new rally cycle starting?

[rpietila]

We are approaching the event where the last technical analysts and investors attempt to front-run the next cycle and get in on the next rally.

What happens when there are no front runners left, and it becomes apparent that there is in-fact no new rally cycle starting?

I only myself understood this about last month, after the following qualifications:

- good in math, Major in Economics
- Known of Bitcoin since 2010, owner since 2011
- 4 months study of the very subject in question, about to write a book about it.

So what did I understand:

- Bitcoin is a technology
- Technologies have a known adoption cycle
- To adopt Bitcoin, you must buy bitcoins
- Buying bitcoins from a rigid stock increases its price to induce existing holders to sell
- The value of Bitcoin network is correlated with the number of its members
- The purchasing power of one bitcoin is roughly linearly correlated to the number of bitcoin owners in the world and it can be expressed with the following equation: 0.0005*U (USD/BTC), where "U" is the number of bitcoin owners.

So I am all for listening to other viewpoints, as long as they conform to observable reality like the ones I presented.

By the way, the excellent clarity of the message was supplied by Cohiba Siglo VI.

[ActualAdviceBTC]

rpietila,

-also major/master economics (not like you can take much else after taking undergrad in econ lol). I agree... Only thing I want to add is that if bitcoin achieves adoption, upper limit of stable price should be equivalent to volume transfer equivalent in fiat.

http://assets.nerdwallet.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/transaction-volume-2006-2010.jpg