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81  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2015, 01:57:52 PM
BFX confirmed that that $100 flash crash was a glitch and reversed the trades. Only a few trades took place down there anyway.

True, but also completely irrelevant Smiley

Charts are not about what happened, or why, or if they are correct, or if they bear any relationship to reality, but about how other people and trading bots that read them react.

In that case, it's a perfect alignment of 3 lows separated by months, meaning some bots or people, are/were watching that trend line. That the first point is pointless in the real world is itself pointless, bots and people reacted to it, and that's all that matters.


Not true at all. Well slightly true but your argument completely disproves your point.

It is about how people read them and you're the only one using that spike in your trend lines nobody else is using that drop, go onto trading view and find me a chart where someone else is using BFX and that $100 spike that never actually happened, everyone else is reading it and interpreting it correctly which is as an anomaly.

Also most trading bots are on OKC due to their liquidity and near 0 fees, hardly any bots run on BFX now days so that point it moot also.
82  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2015, 01:23:09 PM


Most pointless trend line ever. BFX confirmed that that $100 flash crash was a glitch and reversed the trades. Only a few trades took place down there anyway.
83  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2015, 12:59:21 PM
Like I said yesterday, BFX is dead. 0 liquidity. That dump was another round of margin calls. Just $22+ million to go.



looks like heavy resistance 220 was defended again ..

Resistance means resisting the price going through it, maybe with a tiny drop below. Not deeply penetrated twice in a week.
84  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2015, 12:44:11 PM
Like I said yesterday, BFX is dead. 0 liquidity. That dump was another round of margin calls. Just $22+ million to go.
85  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2015, 01:30:21 AM
time to crack 220 ?
220 is a very strong resistence, it not easy broke it

$220 is gone, dead buried.

Just a series of lower highs and lower lows, come back in a year or two. This shits dead for now.

BFX is going to collapse. There's simply not enough money there to make their lenders whole. Gonna be very very ugly for those with coins or cash on that platform. Most people on there use BTC as collateral as well so when they get liquidated more btc needs to be sold to make usd lenders whole. With the state of the books at the moment it won't be able to absorb it. $160 and lower will be seen on BFX for sure.


did you hear that everyone ?? bitfinex is going to collapse....

It's already started.

You know they had to stop margin calls on that sell off to 160 as there wasn't enough liquidity on the books if they had let them carry on cascasing it would have gone to 0. They simply couldn't handle even half of the $25 million in longs they have open closing.

When longs were this high before we were at over double the price and there was a huge amount more liquidity on there.
86  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 24, 2015, 01:03:25 AM
time to crack 220 ?
220 is a very strong resistence, it not easy broke it

$220 is gone, dead buried.

Just a series of lower highs and lower lows, come back in a year or two. This shits dead for now.

BFX is going to collapse. There's simply not enough money there to make their lenders whole. Gonna be very very ugly for those with coins or cash on that platform. Most people on there use BTC as collateral as well so when they get liquidated more btc needs to be sold to make usd lenders whole. With the state of the books at the moment it won't be able to absorb it. $160 and lower will be seen on BFX for sure.
87  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 21, 2015, 04:17:54 PM


Those books don't show my hidden lowball orders and I suspect many more on top of mine.

I'm HAPPY those longs were closed. They put a ceiling on price.  every margin long has to close before profits are taken.  I closed a bunch myself when I trippled down AFTER the bottom, got my average buy-in price below spot on the bounce, closed and used the profits to buy MOAR BTC.  


edit: and screw those guys. Why should they get zero fees when I have to pay?

Those books also don't show the shit storm of btc that would be sold into those hidden orders as well.

Yeah and there's still 100k btc at CURRENT prices of longs open, that's still a hilariously large ceiling on the price if you ask me  Cheesy

Because they make markets, have you tried to trade on an illiquid exchange, without market makers and liquidity providers most the exchanges would be hardly more liquid than some shit coin markets, spreads would be massive and us traders couldn't make money, its how this shit works.

88  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 21, 2015, 01:41:53 PM
Saw an article this morning.  http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/the-blackmail-of-ashley-madison-users-has-already-begun/ar-BBlXLTH?li=AA54ur I guess a extortionist group called "Team GrayFlay" is already threatening to blackmail Ashley Madison users in the hack and they want payment only in Bitcoin.  From the article
Quote
Unfortunately your data was leaked in the recent hacking of Ashley Madison and I now have your information. If you would like to prevent me from finding and sharing this information with your significant other send exactly 2.00000054 bitcoins (approx. value $450 USD) to the following address…
Quote
If Team GrayFlay (or any other blackmailer, for that matter) emailed all 32 million account holders, and just 0.01% of them agreed to pay up the $450 (£288) ransom, it would still earn them $1.4 million dollars (£0.9 million).

So I guess this is bullish news?  Not sure how I feel about making a profit on the heels of extortion though.   Undecided

Nobody will pay that if they have half a brain.

The data is so easily accessible publicly you would get blackmailed repeatedly, you pay this person then you have to pay the 1000 more who also threaten to expose you. Gaining a silence fee only works if you're the sole holder of the information. At this point anybody who finds themselves exposed through this hack is better off just fessing up. Nobody is rich enough to pay off everybody who comes threatening them.
89  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 21, 2015, 01:38:47 PM
where are the finex walls?

They got eaten. Completely.

Didnt you get the memo?

BFX's liquidity provider just went fuck this shit and pulled all the liquidity right before the big sell off.

There's only one or two big liquidity providers left on BFX, they all moved on after BFX exposed that they were paying 0 trading fees.

Everyone's on OKC now. Don't be surprised if BFX becomes just another stamp like fiat gateway.

If they pulled out, others will move in to out bid me. Or I make bank.
Traders love volatility. Investors don't. I'm both. I ain't worried either way.



You're not a liquidity provider in the sense that I'm talking about, yes traders provide liquidity but exchanges have deals with certain parties to provide serious liquidity on their platforms.  

It's way more complicated than just traders will step in to provide liquidity. Just look at the effect of closing $5mill in longs when Mr MM pulled his liquidity.

You do know BFX had to halt margin calls even though they reached liquidation price due to the lack of liquidity on the bid side and how much the cascading calls would move the market. Trust me I've had multiple conversations with Phil about it.

If they had let the margin calls and sells carry on organically BFX would have eaten the whole of its book during that crash.

"If they pulled out, others will move in to out bid me"

They pulled out, have you seen the order books, $2.6 million moves the market down 50%. There is barely more on BFX's books than stamps and stamp doesn't have 100k BTC in longs hanging over its head.

I know several whales who moved long ago when this 0 fee fiasco happened, nearly all the big traders are on OKC.
90  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [OFFICIAL]Bitfinex.com first Bitcoin P2P lending platform for leverage trading on: August 21, 2015, 12:55:24 PM
USD lending rates are dropping a lot. I'm thinking about buying some bitcoins. Unfortunately the bitcoin interest rate is minuscule.

Perfectly normal behavior in an uncertain and slightly bearish situation. There are less people looking to go long on margin and thus less demand. There are also more people sitting in USD waiting to see what happens and therefore there is more supply. What it does mean as well is that there is still the USD on the exchange to buy this back up if sentiment changes, the increase in USD supply suggests that people haven't withdrawn their money.
91  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 21, 2015, 12:52:37 PM
where are the finex walls?

They got eaten. Completely.

Didnt you get the memo?

BFX's liquidity provider just went fuck this shit and pulled all the liquidity right before the big sell off.

There's only one or two big liquidity providers left on BFX, they all moved on after BFX exposed that they were paying 0 trading fees.

Everyone's on OKC now. Don't be surprised if BFX becomes just another stamp like fiat gateway.
92  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 20, 2015, 11:21:29 PM
I wonder where all the >100k margin long coins want to dump into at some point... There is still not a lot on the Bitfinex book which would prevent the next margin call round if somebody decides to dump..

Some people are really trapped as it seems

Yeah, wanna know something that makes it all worse than just whats shown on USD margin swaps?

The fact that most people hold BTC as collateral, BFX have said this themselves. So, not only are people accruing all this interest owed to lenders, when they are liquidated or close, their BTC collateral also has to be sold adding even more fuel to the bear fire.
93  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 20, 2015, 07:09:52 PM

I agree with this one.
However, I have been pondering how Monero looks after 150 years? And guess what? Chances are it still survives thanks to tail emission which makes sure there is always someone(s) mining it and processing transactions.


You think the chances are that XMR survives in 150 years?!

There are multiple possible endgames but most of my predictions say that XMR doesn't succeed in the scope that we're talking about at all let alone to succeed and still be around in 150 years.
94  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 20, 2015, 05:59:45 PM
About 12% of nodes are running XT with zero blocks mined.

13% and 2 blocks mined.

http://xtnodes.com/

https://getaddr.bitnodes.io/nodes/

Have you got the data for how many of those are nodes that have switched rather than new nodes ?  Wink

You can tell by the split on this that they're just not going to get 75%. Aint going to happen.

There are people with more economic power to thwart a change to XT than people who support it.



95  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 20, 2015, 02:29:27 PM

None of the BIPs you talk about have been put in effect. That's why we have XT today.

EDIT: And yes, I trust Gavin more than Wladimir.

Ummm, that's why they're proposals.

But they can be and are being discussed as we speak, that doesn't mean we need to start throwing toys out and forking the network.

Many people support bigger blocks, but not XT. Bitpay for example have said they are in favor of bigger blocks but in CORE, not XT.

Sorry but I trust the whole core team more than the CIA, sorry Gavin.

At the end of the day it's all being blown out of proportion, consensus one way or the other will be reached and I very much doubt that consensus will settle on XT. If anything it's a good play by Mike and Gavin to hurry along the advent of a better solution.

EDIT: 'if not we will just vote them out'  Good luck with that, this decision is far out of your hands personally. End of the day the miners, payment processors and exchanges will decide.



96  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 20, 2015, 01:38:59 PM
Higher fees don't remove the upper limit of 7 transactions per second. Is that so hard to understand?
Neither does XT altcoin.  Is that so hard to understand?
XT is not an altcoin. And it does widen the bottleneck until a better scaling solution is in place.

The point is it's still not a very good solution and the bottle neck would not be present without the spam/dust transactions.

It's really that simple.

It's a kick the can down the road situation that amounts to Gavin and Mike throwing a hissy fit.

Do you read the BIP's? Its not like core are sitting there saying 1mb is good forever, just that the solution isn't to suddenly throw 8mb patches into the mix. Further XT is basically Gavin and Mikes coin, are you confident that you want to trust the future of the project to these two dictators who, even if other devs join them on XT, could just do the same thing further down the line when they want to change something else.



97  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 19, 2015, 08:27:12 PM

...And the other 21 million obviously didn't fold even at $162.


Not all longs with liquidation price under $200 were liquidated. The liquidations were paused to allow the market to recover. How many are left and whether it's worth the risk of selling the market down to those prices again is any one's guess however.

Do we know at what point the liquidations were paused?

No but they have a system where if an order or liquidation moves the market by a certain % they wait to execute them.

Also after having multiple conversations with Phil from BFX before their liquidation system is very very dodgy. He explains it a little bit in the recorded teamspeak chat that's on soundcloud now.
98  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 19, 2015, 08:23:10 PM
"Maybe we'll get a retest of lows, but it'll probably be a higher low."

So down then.

Depends what time frames your looking at completely. Weekly MACD is about to turn down.

We shall see, still $25 million in longs on BFX, LOL and that's after being told for the last 3 months that $30 million in longs was okay.

Standard triangle consolidation is occurring at the moment and I would seriously not be surprised to see it break out again to the downside. Where did all the bids go on Bitfinex? This could get so so ugly, where is everyone long on Finex going to close into?!

We shall see, its all speculation but there could still easily be a complete wipe out of those longs before we go anywhere.

Down slightly, then up. Catching a short here is dangerous.

If the longs are well-financed, it will take a dip to $100 or below to call them. You really think bearwhale will risk taking out another $3 million short? Everyone thought the sky was falling after $166 yet the best trade would have been long from there. I longed at $180 when everyone was crying about the end of Bitcoin.

Sell climaxes are meant to unnerve investors and encourage shorts in inexperienced traders. I bet you went short after the crash to $166 too.


No as I said if you wanna check my posts I was short from $280's on futures. I'm up a few hundred percent atm. Im also not short BTC atm, I'm hedged to protect my $ value and am crushing Forex instead  Grin

Look as always we shall see BUT do you really think that if this shit tanks, like really really tanks that an exchange like BFX can survive and make lenders whole. These are worse case scenarios but its a very scary time to have all your money in coin and on exchanges.

Um yeah, bearwhale just made a shit ton of money shorting high 200's it takes so little money now to start moving downwards again, everyone who opened trades around here and a little lower will want out, there's no bid side left on BFX anymore what are they going to close into.
99  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 19, 2015, 08:00:27 PM
All the technicals point to more down.

No they don't. Oscillators and RSI are way oversold on large timeframes. Maybe we'll get a retest of lows, but it'll probably be a higher low.

When you get climactic action to the downside like this and the bars close way above the lows, that means the market found high quality buying at that level and is an indication of strength. Market weakness is found on green bars near the tops of rallies, where the volume either trails off or you get high volume on narrow bars (evidence of high volume selling entering). That's when you short--not here after climactic action to the downside which removes all the selling.




"Maybe we'll get a retest of lows, but it'll probably be a higher low."

So down then.

Depends what time frames your looking at completely. Weekly MACD is about to turn down.

We shall see, still $25 million in longs on BFX, LOL and that's after being told for the last 3 months that $30 million in longs was okay.

Standard triangle consolidation is occurring at the moment and I would seriously not be surprised to see it break out again to the downside. Where did all the bids go on Bitfinex? This could get so so ugly, where is everyone long on Finex going to close into?!

We shall see, its all speculation but there could still easily be a complete wipe out of those longs before we go anywhere.


I completely agree with user bassclef.


Of course you do, you're long. You also thought $255 was going to hold
100  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 19, 2015, 07:32:59 PM
So hands up. Whos seriously buying at this level? (As a trader, not as a long term purchase).

All the technicals point to more down.

To be honest we're lucky that China held up so well while all the fishyness was going on over at Bitfinex.

Oh also congrats everyone who longed the Euro pre FOMC meeting.
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