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161  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcointalk mobile app on: December 24, 2017, 05:05:36 AM
If they wanted to fork out around 25$ a year could this be a quick and easy option: https://smfmobile.com/  Huh

This is a simple machines forum driven forum.
162  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][ICO] Presale Active - SPARC Supercomputer Coin on: December 24, 2017, 02:04:42 AM
I keep getting a transaction out of gas for the presale address, and when I looked at the address all of its transactions were out of gas.

Any reason for this?
163  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: TOP ICOs with a well working product on: December 17, 2017, 09:03:47 AM

I agree with you that we need to look under the hood of the projects.
Regarding the project you are talking about, sorry, but on the rights of a thread author, I decided not to place lottery or other gambling projects in it, even if they really are good examples of projects with a well-working product.

I am almost considering just not touching any coins which are not open source.  Might miss some opportunities but would really save a lot of time and headaches.
164  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: TOP ICOs with a well working product on: December 17, 2017, 08:48:19 AM
DreamTeam is about to do their Presale.  They have a working platform that you can sign up on and use.
They are also trying to tap into a multi billion dollar industry that doesn't have a good solution yet.  Legal BS really hinders peoples ability to get into professional gaming.  Things like writing up and signing contracts.  Not only does DreamTeam want to set up a professional gaming ecosystem where people can host tournaments, track players, and so on, but everything is managed via smart contracts and easy to use.  It would be my pick for today but depending on how much they raise you might want to wait until after ICO because they are aiming high.
165  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] ⚡ [RADIA] ⚡ MASTERNODES ⚡ GEOCACHE AIRDROP ⚡ TOR/I2P on: December 17, 2017, 08:34:31 AM
oooh.... your idea is not as new like it seemed...
http://geo.money/



The idea was around long before that.  

I actually was trying to start a project called 'Landmarks' which was meant to develop 'location based faucets' and the Geocoin team even used some of my writing word for word in their ICO after contacting me after posting my idea and discussing similarities with their project (yes I have proof).  Location based faucets being ones you can access with a GPS enabled smart phone and actually have to be at the location.

It is a little unfortunate because they did not follow through with the vision.  First of all a portion of the coins would be released slowly over time at 'landmarks' or location based faucets at different landmarks like the statue of liberty.  A number of coins would be sold via ICO.

What I wanted to do was several things:  let merchants set up location based faucets through our web portal which they could load with coins and configure.  The idea was that by giving away free coins at your custom faucet at your store you would attract traffic.  Second I wanted to set up landmarks or fun faucets that gave out coins over time to whoever visted, each with their own icon on the map and info screen.  Third I wanted to hold 'scavenger hunts' where certain landmarks would pay out big but to find them you had to follow clues.

We had graphics and other things, but when I found out what was needed in terms of development I decided to let the Geocoin team pursue the idea and not compete with them.  But they just did not follow through with the vision...  It could have been so much better Geocoin guys!

This was before Pokemon go too.
166  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcointalk mobile app on: December 17, 2017, 06:55:56 AM
We could rather easily make an app to simply view posts, with a modern and responsive user interface.  The login system would take a bit more consideration.
I would want it to be sanctioned by and involve the bitcointalk admins for several reasons though. 
167  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: what is special in cardano? why is it the ethereum of japan? on: December 17, 2017, 06:43:29 AM
Since I am seeing a lot of Cardano spam yet it has been around since 2014 does anyone know what triggered the surge?  No guesses or shill answers please.
It makes me nervous to see a bunch of almost arbitrarily timed spam correlating with such a pump.  Cardano has been in development for awhile and meets milestones every now and then, so why is it different this time?  People trying to find the next bitcoin contributes but there are many other candidates for this.
Not sure if I really like the whole 'scientific' bit.  Not sure how their 'peer reviewed' process necessarily results in better technology than other engineering ventures in the coin world.
168  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Data Analysis on Altcoins on: December 17, 2017, 02:47:49 AM
I will look through these.

I started a little coin analysis project for pump prediction as part of some silly idea for a coin/smart contract which locks trades if a pump is detected..  Not sure how to automatically label the movements as pump/dump or not at the time and doing it by hand was difficult.  

One way we can possibly find and label pump/dumps is just looking for 'pump' and 'dump' word frequencies during that time or after. People tend to discuss the pump/dump after it occurs so we might be able to take advantage of this to collect data and build features.  One of the big goals of this project is to link features to coins be it features over time or in general.

There will be natural spikes followed by corrections which look like pump/dumps but are not because no malicious shilling/pumping occurred.  The additional features might let us see differences as the dynamics of discussion would be different.

Erichallig:  I can guarantee that is not the first Robo advisor for cryptocurrency.  The first robo advisors were probably set up shortly after Bitcoin gained value and likely not for public use. Tongue
169  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: BIG NEWS for ETH: ** CRYPTOPETS ** on: December 17, 2017, 01:28:43 AM
BIG NEWS for ETH: I just now got a copy of the "CryptoPets" white paper from one of their dev team. They are going to release it to the general public later today and do an AMA on Reddit at 5PM EST. I just got through reading it and this new game actually looks like it's gonna be awesome. Cryptokitties on steroids! You'll be able to battle your pets like Pokémon and they will be releasing a mobile app too!! They will have all the congestion issues of CryptoKitties all ironed out as well. It's gonna be big!! Buy as much ETH as you can now before they release this white paper today and announce a launch date!
The very bad news about the ethereum network itself. Just caused by the crypto kitties and so many pending transactions in the network. And what will be happening if there will be more transaction in the network caused by two dapps run at the same time without any improvement to the network. The developer only cares about profit but not with ethereum network itself.

Actually this is one of the best things that could happen to ethereum.  It will drive adaptation which will be needed when more decentralized apps come out.

The statement that they have all the congestion issues of CryptoKitties ironed out is quite bold.   Since there is no whitepaper posted yet can you explain how they manage TX payments better?  Also, could they let users list multiple pets for sale with one call to a smart contract?
170  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Data Analysis on Altcoins on: December 16, 2017, 11:12:21 PM
Yes linking by unique ID is enough and we dont need everything stored in one huge table. We just need to join the information those multiple tables have in common.

small consideration on my side: sentiment analysis might not be the easiest way to start with this. Look at those false positives that sentiment analysis software picks up. I would also imagine this is the place where most people have a very strong opinion, like on all social channels. Perhaps the first victories should be won through numbers alone.

As for the features to use, well there could be some obvious ones for us humans, which we then need to translate into a formula, so that a simple script can pick it up.

Let us talk about how we could approach this (and please post your thoughts below):

I think one of the easiest one could be pump and dump schemes. Why do I think so? Is this not defined as a sharp drop after a time of growth?
So, lets say we have open close prices, we calculate the percentage of increase. OK and now we generate our pump and dump feature: if the coin lost lets say 80% of its value over the time span of one day, I consider that an orchestrated dump. I would create a new variable, that records such an event with a simple 1. Then, I would count the number of times this has happened over the whole lifetime of this coin. And because I dont know whether this is normal or not, I would then compare this result with the other coins I have in my database. Finally, I would make a barchart and sort them by number of occurences to find out which coins suffered from being dumped and whether there are serial pump and dump schemes on particular coins. Perhaps you will think 80% is a bit too much, and you are right. Another variable could be dump 70%, 60%, 50%... and voila you have a lot of new features.

Please keep this discussion as interactive as possible and I will try to execute your ideas.


1.  How do you distinguish pumps/dumps with actual surges and delines due to interest?  The hand coded rules you suggest are a little arbitrarily chosen.
    There are places where both supervised and unsupervised learning could help.  Too bad we don't have labeled data for training.  Clustering might be fun.
    When we did GPS stream analysis for seismic event detection the movement time series were clustered into groups which defined based patterns of movement, that was a fun one.
    Many methods for working with and comparing time series, know any good distance measures?  Time warping helps but might not be best because we don't want to match a slow growth/decline pattern with a pump/dump pattern.

2.  Identifying 'pump coins' using these features and additional machine learning would be awesome.  If you have hand coded rules or a machine learning generated model for pump/dump detection then we can use the resulting time series of 'pump/dump', 'natural growth', etc as features.  Again having coins labeled as 'pump' coins would be very very useful.   Supervised and unsupervised approaches could be fruitful.

3.  We have another strategy for identifying shill/scam/pumpdump coins!  I will email you about this as we are still working it out.  It might be useful for identifying shill coins as well as shillers.

4. I have experience doing sentiment analysis.  We built our own system for detecting the emotional polarity of texts which could be useful.  It is not planned for iteration 1 though so don't expect it.

5.  One problem with sentiment analysis is detecting a time window where there are both positive and negative sentiment expresisons.  Don't just want to say that section is neutral, as it happens all the time when shilling occurs as well as naturally.

6.  Some legit coins are pumped and dumped.  Doesn't make them a scam and some eventually do well if you are along term investor.

7.  Volume along with price is important.  One thing that happens pre-pump is an number of small purchases by the pumpers which may or may not become a useful features.

8.  A hype score would be a useful feature.  Most pumpers shill along with the pump.  This is my specialty right now, shilling detection.

9.  I am far far far from an expert.  I got a graduate degree but have many gaps.  I welcome any knowledge and advice.

10.  we will work on different approaches. We will set you up to do with the data as you please.  
171  Other / Meta / Re: Suggestion for a new board on: December 16, 2017, 09:00:13 PM
Most of the threads on the discussion board seem to be newbie speculation threads.  How about creating a speculation board, and all those mega-reply spamming threads could be moved onto that. This may provide room for some decent discussions about Bitcoin.

Part of it is that Bounty signature campaigns require a certain number of posts in the altcoin discussion thread.  Creating a separate board really won't help unless you convince campaign managers to allow posting there.

In order to move the speculation threads over you would need to hand moderate it.  I could write something which moves things with certain keywords and ngrams but though wouldn't be perfect.  We could use a script to 'flag' certain threads which a moderator could review but a cat and mouse game would ensue.
172  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Is it normal for ICO prices to drop once they're listed on the exchange? on: December 16, 2017, 08:58:08 PM
Yeah but if you believe in the project that is a great thing and a great time to buy.  Oyster dropped after the ICO followed by an 800% rebound before stabilizing.  Just invest and hold the coins.

I agree. If you really believe that an ICO will make it big in the crypto world before buying it then you have the reason to hold it till the end. Hope all ICO's are able to bounce back after they are released in the market.

Bounty hunters and people looking for a quick buck often dump right away also, this should be expected. 
173  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Is it normal for ICO prices to drop once they're listed on the exchange? on: December 16, 2017, 08:37:33 AM
Yeah but if you believe in the project that is a great thing and a great time to buy.  Oyster dropped after the ICO followed by an 800% rebound before stabilizing.  Just invest and hold the coins.
174  Other / Meta / Re: Improving Signature Campaigns on: December 15, 2017, 07:10:07 PM

In my opinion, the problem is not so much going over 100 pages, as long as people are giving their opinions about their dream, and in some cases exchanging them and having a debate on it. It is more of a problem that some people just post whatever with bad English, without having read the first two pages and the last two (because nobody is going to read the over 100 pages) and just to increase post count.

The real problem with these threads is not just the possibility of mindless alt-english replies, but the fact that the poster can start a similar thread by copying one of the previous replies, and everybody can pitch into that with their same tired old meaningless replies. You can end up with 9 or 10 real threads on page 1, and a load of bumped clone threads.

I bet they tried automating this.  Guessing it didn't get too far because I am not sure of the natural language processing skills.

You could theoretically use a variety of 'paraphrasing', for example a paraphrasing algorithm might generate the following similar phrases:

I hate this guy, he is so dumb;
This guy is stupid, I hate him;
I despise this dumb guy.

Just do that on popular thread titles.. Tongue
Paraphrase the 'comments' from the last thread with the title you used for paraphrasing and 'BAM' you can almost automate a shitposter in terms of both starting threads and commenting on them with their sockpuppets..

And that is one of the less sophisticated ways of doing things.
Maybe I shouldn't be discussing this after all.
175  Other / Meta / Re: Improving Signature Campaigns on: December 15, 2017, 06:44:34 AM
...

I think the main problem is that it is infeasible for campaigns to manage quality over quantity. There is no simple metric of this offered on forums like bitcointalk. A campaign manager isn't going to go through every single post of every single person to judge quality, so they have to settle with quantity as it is simple to measure.

Furthermore if a new thread post isn't quality then it will quickly get lost in feed and have no views. However a quality thread feed that has people returning to it constantly and constantly maintains a top position in feed will get far more views and is worth far more.

I think you are completely mistaken here. Quality threads get way fewer replies than shitty threads, on average. You just need to go to the Bitcoin Discussion section and see how many spam megathreads there are, and then go to the Development and Technical Discussion section to see how many replies quality posts get.

We might even see guys with their sockpuppets and their friend's sockpuppets chain quote each other to increase impact scores..

Already know they start threads in (altcoin announcements mostly) just to have somewhere for these accounts to post.

176  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: life of a trader on: December 15, 2017, 02:20:30 AM
A classic but still relevant:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P2FB9Mg_YI
177  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Data Analysis on Altcoins on: December 15, 2017, 01:33:54 AM
The shapes are so-called violin plots. They have a density representation of the data distribution, apart from the box that you can also draw into them.

This dataset may be already exhausted, what else would you like to see, anything particular I could draw up for you? I consider this a forum and the right place to ask such questions.

When do you preferably trade, do you have favorite buy or sell days or strong/weak shopping hours?




Can you do 'average price movement' in terms of increase or decrease on the days of week and months of year?

One thing that will throw things off is that we don't have many years of data so the recent surge is going to impact the visualization and drown out yearly patterns.  I mean with only a few years how do you deal with the black swan events that happen in some year but not the others but caused significant change? Throw the year out like it is an outlier?

Seasonal pattern mining is pretty neat though.
178  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Data Analysis on Altcoins on: December 15, 2017, 12:27:31 AM
just for your information, I would love to reply to your PMs, but I just got this ridiculously funny notification when trying to do so:


You have exceeded the limit of 2 personal messages per day. Buying a Copper membership may increase your limit.


haha  Grin Grin Grin seriously?!

Mull everything over, sleep on it, then message in the morning.  Formally started this project two days ago so a lot is still in the planning phase though I am working on prototypes.

179  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Data Analysis on Altcoins on: December 14, 2017, 10:35:03 PM
For historical comparison, I would currently like to continue using https://files.coinmarketcap.com/, even though it has some limitations.

In near future more functionality and development was promised on http://coincap.io/ so might switch gears again, and I suppose I am fine with either.

If you give me data that has a structure similar to this one, which allows linking IDs in a relational database, lets talk again soon Cheesy

symbol   date   open   high   low   close   volume   market   name   ranknow   variance   volatility   mday   mon   year   wday   yday   delPerc
BTC   02/12/2017   10978.3   11320.2   10905.1   11074.6   5138500000   1.83E+11   Bitcoin   1   0.008695574   0.037482166   2   11   2017   6   335   POSITIVE
BTC   01/12/2017   10198.6   11046.7   9694.65   10975.6   6783120000   1.70E+11   Bitcoin   1   0.070793396   0.123186887   1   11   2017   5   334   POSITIVE
BTC   30/11/2017   9906.79   10801   9202.05   10233.6   8310690000   1.66E+11   Bitcoin   1   0.031934998   0.156245114   30   10   2017   4   333   POSITIVE
BTC   29/11/2017   10077.4   11517.4   9601.03   9888.61   11568800000   1.68E+11   Bitcoin   1   -0.019091662   0.19379569   29   10   2017   3   332   NEG

But I see no ID!  

 Of course though.  We can put together what type of table you want.

I also have a keen interest in 'feature engineering'.  Oftentimes the success of a data mining operation comes down to the features they use.

And we don't need to put everything in one table!  If we have a key or ID associated with a coin we can have a table of time-stamped sentiment features such as positive or negative sentiment, a table wih certain keyword frequencies ('buy' vs 'sell') for each time step and such.  Then when you want to grab subsets or all of the features for an ICO you can simply join them.  Not worried about the costs of joins.

But the more features the better!  Many data mining algorithms perform their own type of features selection.  
.
180  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Data Analysis on Altcoins on: December 14, 2017, 09:42:52 PM
Sounds good to me, I also have a strong interest in visualizations that actually help  Grin

See the first - last measurement date and number of observations:

USD:

01/04/2013 13:00 - 08/12/2017 13:00
n = 41090

BTC:
01/04/2013  13:00 - 06/12/2017  18:00
n = 41061

ETH:
23/04/2016  17:00 - 08/12/2017  13:00
n = 14254

I can do a t-test, but then you would tell me if the answer will tell you anything you didn't know before. If the mean is pretty similar, the p value is high, if I compare two groups that look really different, the p value is small. So the groups which look different also are statistically different. I don't think you can take much from there and I wouldn't like to draw t-test for all combinations Wink.  

I followed up on your idea of taking months, and I added the following visuals: trading volume per month.

USD: https://imgur.com/LtyDGKr
BTC: https://imgur.com/WxSvjDw
ETH: https://imgur.com/BGptbCV

I see some stronger trading months for ETH, which may be fueled by news rather than standard trading behavior, and there seems to be a tendency for more trade in the second half of the year, starting with August when people might be coming home from their holidays.





Glad you put the violin plots in from of the box plots (are those box plots?).
It is definitely cleaner.  With the months the difference is definitely more pronounced.   With regards to T tests (and I agree with a lot of complaints about them) I can't tell how big your sample size so I can't tell how much of the difference in distributions are due to variance and which are due to actual significant differences with the first round which were hard to see.

Anyways,  my focus is on text visualization.  I just started a project (still in early development) which involves visualizing things such as sentiment and semantics with respect to a coin or ICO.  We could look at different keyword frequencies on different days of the week or month for example, using your approach, and compare them with volume or other things to try and weed out why it is that people trade more or less for different months.  

Recommend a good historical price source?  Apis are fine.


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