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161  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How to guess or estimate the tx time ? on: March 03, 2024, 02:43:30 AM
If you decide to pay over fees and your transaction includes the next transaction, then on average, it should take 10 minutes to confirm your transaction. We all know the average transaction time for the next block is ten minutes.
With a fee rate at tip of mempools, we will have to wait for about 10 minutes to get a first confirmation. It is an average waiting time but sometimes will be sooner, even few seconds, and sometimes will be more than 10 minutes. Some blocks need much longer time than 10 minutes to be found and even with a fee rate at tip of mempools, we still have to wait more than 10 minutes.

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So, though you can get an estimate of transaction fees, transaction duration depends on how congested the network is and how much fee you choose. Many wallets give you the ability to customise transaction fees, and you have to choose the fees accordingly. 
Only possible with non custodial wallets.

With custodial wallets, we rely on the custodian to broadcast our transaction and its fee rate. Non-custodial wallets are good but better if we choose open-source non custodial wallets.
162  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: March 02, 2024, 02:47:05 PM
If you want to reach a difference of 10 points it will be very possible in my opinion to reach Bayern Leverkusen, Munich had a draw yesterday with Freiburg and we are waiting for Leverkusen's match against Koln, which I think it will be easy to beat for Leverkusen at this time, considering Koln itself does not have a good performance.
With this big difference, this season in Bundesliga nearly ends early with Bayern Munich. If Leverkusen is unstable like Dortmund last season, Bayern Munich can have chance but the reality is Leverkusen is very stable and strong in this season. It is nearly impossible that Leverkusen will lose 10 points or more in rest matches of Bundesliga.

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I think it's a curse on Harry Kane, why this kind of thing should happen to him, when we know that Kane is a star, but unfortunately his nickname is a star without trophies, we don't see the opportunities that Kane can reach in his history in the big league, I want to know who cursed Kane actually. LOL
You can say it with Ballack, Robben too but finally they won titles with their clubs and Robben even won Champions League with Bayern Munich. Kane still have many years to play and if he continues in Bayern Munich, he will have other opportunities to win Bundesliga.

I don't believe in any curse that a player can not win any title.
163  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC profit taking strategies? on: March 02, 2024, 03:53:38 AM
This would work only if Bitcoin price keeps increasing but in case if it suddenly falls or enters into bear market then you will either be selling at loss or your funds will be struck as you cannot withdraw at loss. I would suggest you to wait till the end of this year or till we ride the upcoming bull run and once it crosses ATH then you need to set up a stop loss and hodl so that you can keep increasing stop loss value as long as Bitcoin's price keeps increasing and in worst situation if it fall then you don't lose much as you would sell at SL with sufficient profit.
If you worry about it, take profit gradually to reduce risk of loss when Bitcoin turns to a bear market.

If you bought around bottom and already have like doubling your initial capital, you can take profit 50% of it and get your initial capital. With rest 50%, you can let it run as it is your profit, even Bitcoin turns to a bear market, it is still your profit, just smaller.

Your strategy can be: 50% for taking initial capital, 25% for next take profit, 25% for the last round of take profit.
164  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How to guess or estimate the tx time ? on: March 02, 2024, 03:47:29 AM
You can check that on mempool.space (not memepool, by the way) itself, but remember that it's just a rough estimate. Transaction fees themselves are volatile. One minute a high priority transaction only has to pay 15 sat/vB, the next minute it has to pay 35 sat/vB. It is possible that your 10 sat/vB transaction could be lower priority at the moment only to be dropped later on.

Depending on your wallet, the estimated time of confirmation for your transaction is also shown according to how much you pay for the transaction fees. But, again, these estimates aren't accurate.
Because mempools can change quickly, Bitcoin users must use opt-in Replace By Fee RBF for their transactions. If they don't use RBF for initial transaction, they will have to use Child Pay For Parents CPFP later, and it is less convenient than RBF and more expensive than RBF in total transaction fee.

Not all mempools accept full-RBF as it is an alternative for RBF.

Replace by Fee.
165  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How to guess or estimate the tx time ? on: March 01, 2024, 11:35:49 AM
Some other mempool observer websites.
https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,24h,weight
https://mempool.space/
https://mempool.space/graphs/mempool

Estimate waiting time for a transaction to be confirmed is not 100% correct because mempools are dynamic and Bitcoin users can broadcast more new transactions to mempools and affect your estimation.

You can paste your transaction hash here and see Priority of the transaction.
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin
166  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: March 01, 2024, 03:21:59 AM
Differences in quality and perspective of club management and applicable rules so as to give birth to a different vision. If I am not mistaken, PSG has just been built more coordinated after they have a new owner and he starts targeting the Champions League as the biggest achievement. In contrast to Bayern Munich and even there they have to make the rules at least German players must be more than outside players. Bayern Munich has become one of the best clubs when playing in the Champions League while the PSG level hasn't to that yet.
Compare PSG with Bayern Munich is not good and I see a better comparison is between PSG and Manchester City. They are both new rich clubs last decade and they both spent a lot of money for transfers recent years. However, their strategies are different and Manchester City changed by signing with Pep Guardiola and adjusted their transfer strategy after that. PSG did not change anything and we can see Manchester City got first success in Champions League last season while PSG are still struggling to have a second Champions League final.

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So that the project being worked on by Luis Enrique will be far more difficult where they have to build the squad to be stronger and take time so that PSG is able to compete in the Champion League. If Luis Enrique is able to build the club level to be stronger then I am sure they will achieve success as did Pep Guardiola in Manchester City.
They signed with Enrique with belief that the coach with his experience in Champions League, will be able to help them to win Champions League. This season is last chance for PSG to win Champions League with Mbape in their squad. They player is ready to move to Real Madrid in the summer but PSG actually prepared for it by stop buying super star players but focus more on star players who are young and still ambitious to win titles.
167  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: March 01, 2024, 03:15:53 AM
Luciano Spalleti was the background problem that started affecting Napoli’s team, he started using selfish interest in making his selections, the management sacked him and signed the new manager Walter Mazzarr.
It is unfair to say it to Spalleti, as he is a coach who helped Napoli to win Scudetto after more than three decades. His name is marked in Napoli history as one of  most successful coaches for their club. No party can last forever and he had to leave Napoli but no shame on what he done for them.

Pogba was good at playing football but he has wasted his talent. No more chance for him to join in the football after he will have passed the punishment for his unappreciated act.
He wasted his talent since a transfer from Juventus to Manchester United. His high ego affects his career a lot and in Manchester United, he did not show his best and let his career is affected by many things beyond football.

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Pogba shall forget football for 4 years. It may still be possible if he will move to the non european competition but let's see what's gonna be his next decision to save his career as a footballer.
Pogba now is 30 years old and with the 4-year suspension, his football career as a player ends here. It's hard for a player who is not professional with training to return to football at highest level in Europe at 34-years old. If he returns, I guess a possible destination for him is Saudi Arabia.
168  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: February 29, 2024, 11:10:09 AM
If you want to know how consistent a team will be throughout the season, just look at the depth and quality of their bench. It is clear that Real and Barcelona are superior to Girona in this indicator very significantly, so everything is obvious. While Barcelona had problems with injuries, their results were worse, now everything is getting better.
These factors are important but even with best players, a club can have bad performances and they even can have it stably during a long season. Last season, Real Madrid had a better squad than Barcelona but they lost La Liga to Barcelona. This season we are witnessing Girona with very limited player resource, worse than Real Madrid and Barcelona, are showing very impressively and challenge a first and second positions.

Years ago, in Premier League there was Leicester City suddenly won the league title against many big clubs. They were similar to Girona in this season but will Girona have a happy ending and be able to lift the trophy, I am not sure.

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But Girona now also does not have big problems with injured players, if injuries occur, they are often not significant, but I believe that it is still more difficult for Girona to compete with the giants of La Liga.
They will hardly repeat it next season but in this season, they have done great jobs and they don't need to win La Liga to make it as a most successful season in their club history.
169  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Question about futures on: February 29, 2024, 11:04:27 AM
With a 3x leverage your risk of liquidation is low, like someone mentioned above, you would be liquidated somewhere around $40K which is far away.

Your issue will be however the funding rate. Currently it’s expensive to long bitcoin on futures or perps. You are going to lose a lot of money paying the funding alone with the 3x leverage. And if the bull market continues then the fees might get worse and worse.
Risk is low but it exists and funding fee is another issue.

Additionally it will cost a trader a lot for a position that is opened a long time in Futures trading and Funding rate is not static but it is dynamically changed with demands on the market. When people are bullish, funding rate will become more expensive.

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My advice is just buy it on spot and sleep well at night .
I can not disagree.

You don't invest in futures but you are trading/gambling there. If I have that 100 euroes, I'll try to grow it even better and test my trading skill patiently. I don't care how long it will be but as long as it's growing, that's what matters for me.

And when everything is fine and grown, what I'd do is I will be putting everything that I have gained into Bitcoin and if possible, I'll take that cash as remembrance and will get out of the market.

Only if I'll be able to grow that.
With $100, it's hard to increase it too much by investing in Bitcoin. Doubling it is possible but more than x2, I don't know if it is a Bitcoin investment and in only one cycle.

With $100, I would prefer to pick top altcoins of new trends and hold it in this bull run, it can give me x5 x10 and with a bigger capital like $1000, it is better to trading, with Spot, not with Futures or Leverages.
170  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How does a cryptocurrency gain value? on: February 29, 2024, 01:32:41 AM
What's cryptocurrency?
It's a decentralized encrypted exchange unit.
My first time to know this definition about cryptocurrency. Also not all cryptocurrencies are decentralized.

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It's transactions are visible through a decentralized ledger (Blockchain)
Transactions can be visible, traceable with any public ledger. You don't need to have a decentralized ledger to see transactions and trace them. A public ledger can help you to do so and it can be either centralized or decentralized.

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How can you tell which cryptocurrency will go up ?
Use case and utility of a cryptocurrency will made up its value. Without good use cases, good utilities, it's hard for that cryptocurrency to gain value.
171  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: WHO DOES CRYPTO DAY TRADING? on: February 28, 2024, 09:37:28 AM
I want to get into crypto day trading. It truly fascinates me. Out of curiosity, if anyone does day trading comment what crypto you made the most profit on in a 24 hour period. Please tell me what crypto and the total amount of profit you made. Thanks
Who does crypto day trading?

They are two types:
Professional traders who can trade daily and get profit daily. Very scare traders can be professional and get daily profit.
Another type of traders that is most common, greedy traders and they are unprofessional. They want to get daily profit and want to get rich from trading but as described, they are unprofessional and even lack of knowledge, experience so they will end most of days with loss.
172  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: February 28, 2024, 02:50:51 AM
For the Bundesliga Bayern Munich were still quite dominant in the previous few seasons, even though they recently lifted the trophy in a difficult way. This season the presence of Leverkusen changed everything and Bayern Munich became the team that was not the favorite for the Bundesliga title. Leverkusen's dominance is still so strong that Xabi Alonso's team is unbeaten and they play much more consistently than Bayern Munich as the king of the Bundesliga.
Their domination started to be challenged more by competitors in the last season and they nearly lost Bundesliga to Dortmund. They won it very luckily by a late goal from Musiala and with a bad draw from Dortmund in a final match day of 2022- 2023 season.

In this season, the trend continues and it even becomes worse. Bayern Munich are competing with Leverkusen that have better stability than Dortmund in the last season and with eight points more than Bayern Munich, Leverkusen temporarily have very good gap to secure their first position. They have better chance than Dortmund to beat Bayern Munich and win Bundesliga.

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Bayern Munich is not much of a favorite right now because of some of the disappointing results they have had in previous matches. Lazio's aggregate is not big and maybe Bayern Munich can make a comeback in the second leg because the match will take place at Bayern Munich's home ground. Now it depends on Tuchel and how they can get a win in the second leg, as people say that Tuchel is not the right coach to handle Bayern Munich now.
They will not lose Bundesliga to Leverkusen but if they have to choose between Bundesliga and Champions League, they will choose Champions League. If they beat Lazio and go to quarter finals, they will not be too far from the final match. They will possibly keep fighting in both competitions as in Champions League, with knock out format, it will be risky to be eliminated. In Bundesliga, it is a long run so Bayern Munich will not give up soon.
173  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: February 28, 2024, 01:59:15 AM
I think it's too early to predict the winner of the Premier League this season with 12 games remaining

Manchester City and Liverpool have to face each other on matchday 28 and Arsenal have remaining match for facing Manchester City on matchday 30. Its crucial if can win each other has most important thing if want to be the winner for domestic league and I believe three top teams awhile has the same opportunities for winning premier league.
These competitors are only away each other 1 point and from Liverpool to Arsenal at the third position, point difference is only two points. This race will continue to be very tight until one or two of competitors will have some bad matches and fall behind other competitors.

With their strength, assume they will win weak and average clubs so their direct matches will be important for the title competition. Manchester City will have two big direct matches with Liverpool and Arsenal. It means both chances and risk, if Manchester City can beat opponents in both matches, they will create a big turning point for Premier League title race. If they fail, they will fail to defend their title.

This is 5th round of FA Cup and Manchester City fight against Luton and the final scores is 6-2 for Manchester City and in this match i have to says the combination between Haaland and De Bruyne is really make Luton gets in trouble because these players can threaten Luton defensive lines
They are a great combination for Manchester City attacking system to make it more powerful and more dangerous. The returns of both De Bruyne and Haaland are actually showing great impacts on their attacking system recent matches. Haaland looks to need more time to warm up after his injury but it seems the match against Luton Town already triggers his goal scoring instinct.

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in the last few matches with Manchester City Haaland didn't scores but today he has fantastic performance with scores 5 goals and this is the first time in Manchester City history that there is a player who can able to scores 5 goals in a single match and these goals too has been proven Haaland finally has found his shape again
He broke a Premier League goal scorer record in past season and again made another record for Manchester City in this season. He is young and has a long contract with Manchester City with potential to be expanded more. If Haaland plays in Premier League like 10 seasons, he will make a new all time record for the league, surpassing Alan Shearer.
174  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Saudi Professional League 2023/2024 on: February 27, 2024, 07:58:10 AM
Riyad Mahrez, the favorite player of Pep Guardiola who had a key performance when he was playing for this coach has had an amazing performance in Saudi Arabia since he joined there and he proved he was worth all the money he spent on this player.
He played in the game between Al Tai and Al Ahli and he scored one goal for his team. So far in this season, he has scored nine goals for his team and eight assists which is amazing for this player who left Manchester City after five years of playing there.



He decided to leave Manchester City and enjoyed money in Saudi Arabia. With lower level of Saudi Professional League, it's not big problem for Riyad Mahrez to show his ability there. He has better body and fitness than Neymar, less sensitive with injuries so his contributions for his clubs are bigger than what Neymar did for Al Hilal.

9 goals is an amazing stats but I don't know are there any goal from 9 goals from penalties?

What Riyad Mahrez has given to his club is not enough to make Al-Ahli a club that competes for the title because they are already quite far behind the current leaders, even from the second-placed team they are already 9 points behind
Because Al Hilal and Al Nassr are too strong and dominating the Saudi Professional League. To win a league title, a club need more than a single star player and Riyad Mahrez is only an attacking player, not a striker, a goal machine to decide a title race.
175  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Monastery My Opinion on: February 27, 2024, 02:13:27 AM
This is actually happening right now, for many years in fact, but not in the name of religion or some spiritual explanation. There are so many Ponzis and other investment schemes that are being operated by different groups. But these are basically investment groups not religion or something like that.
Ponzi is a scam scheme that is used by scammers and they don't hesitate to use any available tool to steal money from naive people. They can use religion to run their Ponzi and they do not self-restrict their scams in only investment.

When they use religion as tool for their Ponzi scam, they will not publicly say it is a kind of investment, a Ponzi, but they will give some attractive promise and some sweet words to do their scam plan. There are always naive and greed people who will be scammed not only by Ponzi but by other scam types.

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The basic point is the same though. The members would contribute to those who are running the scheme. It is encouraging of course because anybody can check the rising price of Bitcoin. In the end, only the leaders will make wealth.
In Ponzi scheme, the creator and early participants, at highest tiers of the pyramid, will gain profit. The lower under the pyramid, people will lose more money than gains.

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This is another way of centralizing Bitcoin which is pointless.
No Bitcoiner want to centralize a decentralized Bitcoin network.
176  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: February 27, 2024, 02:06:03 AM
Dybala was the hero of the day, scoring 3 goals in a short period of time and helping Roma earn 3 points in the match. Near the last minutes, Hujisen's own goal reduced the difference and became the score of the match. The 3-2 score brought 3 points to Rome and ensured their presence in the UCL race again. The race to get into the top 4 places in Serie A is very tight.
Dybala scored three goals for Roma and his second goal is a beautiful goal. Three goals from him helped Roma to have three points but this match was not easy for Roma in a first half. Before a first goal, penalty from Dybala, Torino created some opportunities to open the match. After that they equalized the match and Roma only had a better control after the second goal from Dybala.

Their defender made an own goal and gave Torino some hope in last minutes but finally they secured their advantage and won the match.

It's too long time since a last time Dybala scored three goals in a match in Serie A. He is a hero of Roma today.
177  Other / Meta / Re: A simpler version of demerits: "dmerits" for every X merits earned on: February 26, 2024, 02:26:16 PM
Themos drafted this idea in Merit & new rank requirements but he states clearly that he does not want to deploy it.

There is currently no such thing as a "demerit". I'm hoping that the positive merits alone will be fine. I could add demerits pretty easily later on if necessary, though.

theymos actually stepped in and did some demerit transactions in Bitcointalk merit transaction history.

If you see some bad posts received merit, you can report it to theymos and hopefully demerit transactions will be executed by theymos.

demerit with 569 demerits.
178  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Saudi Professional League 2023/2024 on: February 26, 2024, 02:16:22 PM
Losing hope with Al Nassr opportunity for winning domestic league? its seems too early losing hope regarding gap 4 points and I don't sure tonight easily for Al Hilal defeat Al Ettifaq. Don't be pessimistic because because Al Nassr keep fighting until at the last matchday for winning domestic league exactly for Cristiano Ronaldo want to get domestic trophy with Al Nassr.
In Saudi Professional League, they will not lose hope if they keep winning because when they complete their task, winning their matches, they simply wait for bad results from Al Hilal. Their hope only will become smaller if they have a draw or defeat and know that they will not be able to reduce gap with Al Hilal and even will face risk of having bigger gap if Al Hilal wins.

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In AFC Champion League, Al Nassr still has chance become the winner, success qualify to quarter final and will face AL Ain to make easily lead to semifinal round, its good achievement for Cristiano Ronaldo if can win domestic league and AFC Champion League for this season exactly he was two season without domestic league trophy.
In AFC Champions League, they are going to a quarter final round and are continuing their fight to go to a final match and win it. Cristiano Ronaldo will be very happy if he wins AFC Champions League after winning some UEFA Champions League with Manchester United and Real Madrid. He will be a first player can do that in history and it suits with his motivation, chasing records.
179  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Stop Loss and Trailing Stop Loss in Spot Trading on: February 26, 2024, 02:08:30 AM
Another alternative for OP is to use futures trading and use 1x leverage where it will look like a spot but not good I believe because the fee is higher when you do this and much better to use the spot market.
Because the case of OP is very common for futures market where you can set immediately stop losses upon opening a trade.
The fee with futures trading is very expensive than spot trading and it isn't only risk.

There is another risk that from 1x leverage, it's easily to increase the leverage to higher number and amateur trader will easily lose control on leverages and their greed, fear. From a good beginning, it possibly ends as nightmare with higher leverages and forced liquidations, not only about more expensive fee.
180  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: February 26, 2024, 01:22:23 AM
Amazing outcome for Klopp and Liverpool. So many injuries we had to play a bunch of kids but we still found a way to win. What a club, no other team with this many injuries wins that game today.
Van Dijk is back to his best, what a legend. This will give us massive momentum now going forward with more trophies to play for this season.
Klopp has a first title in this season with Liverpool for his last season with them. They are going to fight in Premier League and Europa League and are doing well. I hope they will win at least one more title in this season as a celebration for Klopp and a happy goodbye after all best they have together over nearly 10 years.

Van Dijk has yet been back to his best if we consider his performances throughout this season but in a single match, he can have excellent performance like this final match.

According to the match, it still looks quite well and Liverpool even more dominated the match. They made 24 shots and won 54% of the ball possessions. It means, Liverpool still can perform with their best although they used many substituted players in the midfield and attacking line. But of course, the shot accuracy will be very different with the main players. So, no attacker could score a goal, Van Dijk who scored a single goal in the extra time to make Liverpool winning the EFL Cup. Again, Van Dijk showed to the people that he is a true hero in Liverpool squad.
Klopp does not only help Liverpool to win this cup but he has also set up a solid foundation for Liverpool in coming years. Some youth players were grown up by Klopp in the last three seasons and they will help the club to save a lot of transfer money and play important role in Liverpool squad in next some seasons. This title is a first one for many young players in Liverpool and it can lit up their career in future as well.
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