BEARISH IN THE MOST EXTREME WAY!
I think all the people who think bitcoins are going to revolutionize the world are the ones on drugs. Its a boiler room scam that several exchanges are making a boatload of money off of. Any recourse if anything goes wrong? NO! Have fun!
 .... So why are you here? |
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High BTC prices are great and all, but the damage done to the U.S. economy could be far more damaging to my finances than any gain from bitcoin.
Buy more bitcoin? |
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Debt deal talk != Debt deal However, it is likely to be voted on tonight. |
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How do you know it will happen in 3 years? Has Marty mc fly come for a visit from the future or is it just speculations?
Santaoshi may come for a visit for me this year too because i have been so kind!
Because that's how Bitcoin is designed. The block subsidy halves every four years, and last year was the first halving. |
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Do you mean the kind of economic progress where every 1% of GDP growth is accompanied by 2% growth in debt? I fail to see how that is progress...
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It still amazes me that most people involved in bitcoin are not cognizant of the ramifications of a deflationary currency. In a deflationary currency the best decision when deciding to purchase anything is usually to decline to make the purchase. That is because whatever you intend to purchase will cost less next week than it does today, the exact opposite of an inflationary currency. The best strategy is almost always to be a hoarder.
It still amazes me that people over-sell the hoarding aspect of deflationary currencies. What you guys forget is that there's a difference between minimum spending and zero spending, and you consistently present an argument that doesn't take proper account of the difference between the two. ASIC miners are never going to be a neccesary big ticket purchase, but what about a car? Or the deposit for a home loan? Life insurance? Medical procedures? Emmigration fund? The hoard will take a backseat when it costs you a more important opportunity. No one said there would be no spending. Just no spending of bitcoins. see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham's_lawGresham's law would only apply if someone were artificially undervaluing bitcoin. |
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i know you know what you're talking about so please give us recommendations. I know enough to doubt my own ability to pull it off, although I do attempt to use virtualization to sandbox all my network-facing applications. I have a workstation which I turned into a VM host system. Instead of using a dedicated router, I plug my cable modem directly into this system, but the host doesn't talk to the modem directly. I run a Linux system in a VM which serves as the router/firewall. That VM directs traffic onto a virtual DMZ network, where the other VMs which run services like Tor, I2P, Freenet, Bitcoind, and an OpenVPN client are able to send and receive packets directly over the ISP connection. Behind the OpenVPN client is another virtual network where the VMs which are public-facing but which I do not want to see my ISP-provided IP address run (like Bitmessage). One of these VMs is also an internal firewall that allows the physical lan to access the internet via the VPN. I've also got dedicated virtual networks for Tor and I2P communication. I do ingress and egress packet filtering at the VM level and at the host level using iptables and ebtables. In spite of all that, I'm not convinced that it's possible for me to fully contain the damage a compromised VM could cause. This should be a fairly thorough setup, as long as the host remains uncompromised. A successful attack through the host essentially requires human agent interaction, as opposed to the automated process of searching for a wallet.dat file...
i assume an automated attack coming from the host for a wallet.dat would turn up nothing even with the VM open? an even simpler question, encryption doesn't help an open VM, correct? In theory the agent on the host could have code that understands the linux file system and accesses it directly through the VM's disk image file which is on the host. But in practice this isn't going to happen today. Because that ability (accessing Linux file systems in windows) would be pretty valuable as a real product... It would be trivial to mount a VM disk image and scan it for wallet.dat's. Also, if the VM is running, it is possible for code on the host system to read passwords from the VM's memory. VM's are never protected from the host. |
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If there are no catastrophic events, the "Internet kill switch" will be a moot issue within three years. There may still be the potential for continental separation, but methods exist for communication even at transoceanic distances without relying on cables or satellites. With geographically diversified mining resources, Bitcoin will be effectively unbreakable at that point.
That is when Bitcoin will start truly eroding gold's position as a monetary asset, after fiat currencies have been proven bettered by crypto.
Now you have brought up an interesting problem: can someone(e.g., superpowerful alphabet agencies) actually manage to exert control on the whole network by manipulating what's being sent through the cables? Maybe when we get all super-rich with bitcoins we need to construct our own submarine fiber systems, secured by quantum cryptography which is resistant to both sabotage and quantum computing. Well that's the thing. He's talking about radio waves. Not sure how manipulable those are. You still have limited range and routers/repeaters. That's where the network is vulnerable to manipulation. i guess the thinking goes that if and when the entire internet is down, the gubmint will have it's hands full trying to bring it back up, let alone trying to take meshnets down. I agree there. It would be good if bitcoin natively used secure sockets and random ports. It isn't very susuceptible to manipulating packet contents, but at some point we may want it to be harder to identify bitcoin traffic. |
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If there are no catastrophic events, the "Internet kill switch" will be a moot issue within three years. There may still be the potential for continental separation, but methods exist for communication even at transoceanic distances without relying on cables or satellites. With geographically diversified mining resources, Bitcoin will be effectively unbreakable at that point.
That is when Bitcoin will start truly eroding gold's position as a monetary asset, after fiat currencies have been proven bettered by crypto.
Now you have brought up an interesting problem: can someone(e.g., superpowerful alphabet agencies) actually manage to exert control on the whole network by manipulating what's being sent through the cables? Maybe when we get all super-rich with bitcoins we need to construct our own submarine fiber systems, secured by quantum cryptography which is resistant to both sabotage and quantum computing. Well that's the thing. He's talking about radio waves. Not sure how manipulable those are. You still have limited range and routers/repeaters. That's where the network is vulnerable to manipulation. |
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In order for the price move to be substantiated, there needs to be volume and this requires asks filling in. 19k (now 17k) is actually still low for stamp. It was 24k for a while.
Yes, but that doesnt mean asks filling in is bullish... [its still bearish] Back to 19k. And back to 17k.. lol I think these "small" movements have to be ignored. Without asks filling in, you'd have a full-on bubble with lots of volatility detracting investors and followed inevitably by an equally brutal crash that might break the trend. Slow and steady with a decent volume and liquidity is the way to go. Let's hold off bubbling till we break 260. And how do you get volume? Oh yeah, traders, who are attracted to volatility. |
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The question is simple: will we see such a thing in the Bitcoin world this Christmas?
I know, I know...it's not the first Christmas for Bitcoin. But I think a lot has changed since last time in the commercial sector around Bitcoin, there are more shops and vendors that offer real and virtual goods and accept Bitcoins as payment.
Also there could be a peak in sales for Bitcoin vouchers or printed Bitcoins. Maybe people give each other some Bitcoin as an investment gift like you would give them a special coin that could rise in value some day? People could be buying physical Bitcoins instead or gift cards with a QR code to a private key, all of these are already available.
It is indeed not the first Bitcoin Christmas. Look at historical charts for some insight  . |
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Here's the problem with volume analysis: there's now definitive way of knowing if some trade contributing to the volume is between two parties that both previously held btc (i.e. "trading back-and-forth"), or whether at least one party will buy btc for the first time (or in substantially higher quantities than before). The latter case is what we really want (and need), it's the "fresh money" that is necessary in the argument that says: price can only be sustained/go up if X amount of USD enter the market each month. Since from the outside there is no way of telling which of the cases applies, I'm extremely sceptical about arguments based on volume and price sustainability based on volume.
It doesn't matter as much as you might think. It's all about outstanding positions, not whether it is your 1st position in btc, or your 1000th. |
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Well, there are two sides. People now bet on 17 October 2013 will be in another side. If dollars fails, then gold, silver, crude oil, bitcoin will raise real quick.
I have seen the raising. If fails on 17 October 2013, then more people may like to buy gold, crude oil to save themselves.
Additionally, bitcoin never be able for money laundering as it can be unveiled when there is something broken.
By what mechanism would failing to raise the debt ceiling cause the dollar to tank? I could see a default being deflationary, but which orifice are you pulling your inflationary theory from? |
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So I'm curious about the specifications for this question. given that a market order would entirely clear gox (and also bitstamp/ any other exchange even if all were used simultaneously), what does Mr rich troll do then? Wait with the remaining cash until new asks are placed?
Largest bidwall ever. |
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lol Nice price action, but volume/momentum shows bearish divergence. StochRSI is the one to watch was down now up again  StochRSI is what I was looking at. It was much higher at the earlier price peaks. Volume on up moves has died off. I'm not saying it can't pick up, just that it will need quite a push to make new highs from here. |
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Nice price action, but volume/momentum shows bearish divergence. |
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Most chinese exchanges have zero fee.
That boosts their volume artificially.
How exactly do they make money, then? When they said 0 fee, I sorta assumed they artificially induced spread or something. Maybe they use the additional information they have compared to the other market participants to their advantage. A highly liquid, efficient exchange provides arbitrage opportunities. |
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In the beginning, the US successfully resisted central banks, and even abolished some of the first attempts that were started. Hopefully, we can once again rid ourselves of them and go back to a sound money standard. However, the Federal Reserve system has stood for quite some time. Very few people alive were born before the FED, and most don't know it is a private bank. The name was key in associating it with government. Even fewer understand the axioms of sound money, and savings has been eroded by debt and inflation.
We can be thankful for inflation also helping those with debt repay it.... So long as wages rise with inflation and interest rates are manageable. Wages hasn't been a pretty picture, and rates have been rising, even with $85 billion a month being created to prop up mortgage and bond markets. Tapering needs to happen, but will they be able to let up on the gas pedal without rates rocketing?
If rates rise, the US government's budget problems get worse quickly as interest payments swollow more of the pie. As taxes are levied, or federal spending cut, dollars will be less plentiful and the USD will gain in value. If rates get too high and a serious deflationary wave occurs, cash will be king and defaults will be the order of the day as interest on public and private debt sucks up all the "excess liquidity" they have flooded into the system.
Of course, they could always push the pedal harder, and sentiment could be ripe for such a move. Many are expecting tapering. It would continue to keep rates low, but would keep the bad bets from being cleared from the system.
The drag of the debt is too much, and only defaulting or inflating away much of the debt can get the economy moving forward. We'll likely cycle through both as the economy inhales and exhales.
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