The price is slowly sliding down as I thought it would be doing.
It goes down approximately 10 % per month.
If it continues on the same track, you are making money if you are able to borrow Moneros for lower rate and short it.
That seems a bit risky even though I lost a bundle on the slide from $1.20 to $.85. If a bug pops up in ethereum or the doa it's pretty obvious monero is used as a hedge and it's size is a mud puddle next to a lake with a dam ... The further the months of January-February-March-April are the less unlikely it is to trade above 0.002. In the beginning of the year the optimism is at its peak and the community has a renewed hope to finally get officially recognized GUI. The longer the year goes, the less unlikely it is a GUI will be ready this year. Rinse and repeat.  |
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The price is slowly sliding down as I thought it would be doing.
It goes down approximately 10 % per month.
If it continues on the same track, you are making money if you are able to borrow Moneros for lower rate and short it.
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I guess soon it will be time to start to speculate if there will be a GUI or not.  That being said, my buying target is still lower than the current price so selling now is like selling on premium. |
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Why is volume so low?
Its going back to normal levels imo, before the recent pump. ALso I expect price to slide down slowly. I agree. In autumn there will be the best prices to acquire coins, last year the bottom prices were 0.001. Perhaps the time has arrived to change your $signiture back. Why? I am probably a buyer at 0.001. However, if it will not go back there I am also happy because I have Moneros. I simply have some btc to invest in cheap XMR but I cannot afford to buy them at the current spot, too poor for that. If you buy more at 0.001 or below, could it be assimilated to the sunk-cost effect ? "in for a penny - in for a pound" Any price point sub 1000 usd/xmr is a sunk-cost in my calculations. Monero is extremely tiny niche at current size of community (the size of community can be seen as a reflection of the marketcap of XMR). Therefore investing in a coin that has this small community of bagholders is pretty much sunk-cost. That being said, Monero has probably one of the largest communities among the alts. |
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Why is volume so low?
Its going back to normal levels imo, before the recent pump. ALso I expect price to slide down slowly. I agree. In autumn there will be the best prices to acquire coins, last year the bottom prices were 0.001. Perhaps the time has arrived to change your $signiture back. Why? I am probably a buyer at 0.001. However, if it will not go back there I am also happy because I have Moneros. I simply have some btc to invest in cheap XMR but I cannot afford to buy them at the current spot, too poor for that. |
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Why is volume so low?
Its going back to normal levels imo, before the recent pump. ALso I expect price to slide down slowly. I agree. In autumn there will be the best prices to acquire coins, last year the bottom prices were 0.001. |
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I blame Vitalik.
That stunt shook what little confidence there was in the alts. Along with the BTC rise, XMR is swimming in an infested pond right now.
In the long run, XMR will be able to differentiate and overcome, but there may be more short term price ugliness.
Yes but before XMR can differentiate I want to buy some at 0.001. But how much will that be in dollars or euro? Unless you are allin crypto, I think measuring Monero's value in bitcoin makes little to no sense. Only a small percentage of my portfolio is in crypto. The largest part is tied to appartments and are cashflowing. Then I have some common shares + investments in startups + precious metals (lately I have been more and more fascinated in accumulating gold coins, especially historical European gold coins). I have also some bitcoins that are paying me interest in lending markets + some idle btc.. If XMR/BTC ratio drops to 0.001 I am interested to reallocate some of my bitcoins into Monero. If it will not do that, I am also fine with my current portfolio (however I secretly wish there will be enough dumpers to hammer XMR to 0.001 although I do not think it will last too long, max a few months). So crypto I am approaching by two fold: 1) USD/BTC 2) BTC/SOME OTHER COIN, I have divided my portfolio in crypto into two parts that are completely distinct, if BTC goes to the moon I am not going to sell all my btc so that I can take advantage also some dumps in alt markets, and that part is collecting interest currently in Poloniex. |
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I am still holding my support zone at 0.001... There is no urgency to buy now.
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I blame Vitalik.
That stunt shook what little confidence there was in the alts. Along with the BTC rise, XMR is swimming in an infested pond right now.
In the long run, XMR will be able to differentiate and overcome, but there may be more short term price ugliness.
Yes but before XMR can differentiate I want to buy some at 0.001. |
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Chinese are restless, more, bigger dumps incoming...
Norwegians also seem to be bearish on this.  You must feel like shit for not selling at 004x Actually I do not care. My Moneroholdings are around 0 gain or 0 loss currently. If you are able to dump it all the way down to 0.001 I might consider buying some more. Currently I do not feel any urgency to buy. |
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Chinese are restless, more, bigger dumps incoming...
Norwegians also seem to be bearish on this. |
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Personally I refused to lend my Moneros and I had many loans with short periods open. Once those loans were refinanced, the rates spiked, but that just my theory. |
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Low volume means that random guys owning lots of coins that they are willing to sell in this price domain (anything less than a few thousand$ per BTC) is drying up. We've been here for so long, if anyone wished to sell, he had plenty of time to do so.
And for sure, the random guys are not a renewable. We had a lot of them, but tell me how many exist any more! Not so many.
I meant the price will rise from supply being dried up until some guy sitting on a bunch of coins thinks the market is overextended. He will then sell in hopes of buying back cheaper, then the volume and volatility starts. I didn't mean the guy wanted to dump for no reason. Only a fool would want to sell and walk away right now. We have had plenty of fools in the last years but the function of market is towards weeding them out. (A rare natural example of decreasing entropy in a system). My overall philosophy on the signs of the rises:(has to be taken in the context of investments with the parameters similar to cryptocoins) Quick rise on high volume - GOOD - Brisk new demand and coins change hands Quick rise on low volume - BAD - Most of the issue in few hands = overhang risk, liquidity risk, possible scam Slow rise on high volume - BAD - If a high volume causes only slow rise, it is a toppish sign (unless just emerging from a bottom; then good) Slow rise on low volume - GOOD - Supply drying up, possibility that the trading range will soon be contested leading to a massive revaluation What already happened with BTC, volume collapsed and price is inching upwards in the weekly, is going to happen to XMR soon. The only thing that can prevent it is new demand, which means that we will go up quickly on high volume, instead of slowly on low volume. Both of the scenarios are healthy. It is crucial for growth and adaption to have a bullish trendline. There are very few who are interested in holding an asset that loses the value because loss of value destroys the wealth of the owners and creates bitterness and pain which is manifested here on the forum. |
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Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?
If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back. However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc). How does it work with the collateral in Poloniex ? is it possible to have one but get a lower interest rate (I don't have account there and lending would be the only reason)? thanks for the help. Thank you for that. I had a look and I am now checking the loan markets, which has hardly demand for all the coins present. Is this normal or I checked at the wrong time? Various enormously depending on market conditions. Thank you for the quick answer. I will keep an eye on the lending market from now on. I am using lending market to analyze the overall atmosphere. When rates are low it means the shorter community thinks the price is low and odds for further decline are limited. Hi, being very new to lending market, I was wondering how to determine when rates are low? I believe poloniex does not show a historic of the rate ? Personally I consider a low rate at a rate that is below inflation. Inflation with XMR is almost 0.1 daily so below that is low and higher than this gives you some real return over inflation as well. However, XMR is in so early stage that this type of analysis might be irrelevant and more in academic level than in practical level. |
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Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?
If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back. However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc). How does it work with the collateral in Poloniex ? is it possible to have one but get a lower interest rate (I don't have account there and lending would be the only reason)? thanks for the help. Thank you for that. I had a look and I am now checking the loan markets, which has hardly demand for all the coins present. Is this normal or I checked at the wrong time? Various enormously depending on market conditions. Thank you for the quick answer. I will keep an eye on the lending market from now on. I am using lending market to analyze the overall atmosphere. When rates are low it means the shorter community thinks the price is low and odds for further decline are limited. |
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Probably whales are hunting now for the coins of smaller fish species.
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Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?
If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back. However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc). |
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Trading xmr doesn't make sense due to the high slippage. Smaller amounts you can trade for sure but I am not sure if it is worth your time.
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It is stated several times here and everywhere Monero will most likely fail.
That being said, anonymity is something that many people expect from a currency (my gut feeling). And I am not speaking about anonymity needs of a child molesters, con artists etc. but real normal people.
The second requirement for a currency is a community since money is nothing magical but a social contract: if person A considers sea shells as money and person B accepts this contract, then they are money for them. No matter how old fashioned it is to trade with sea shells.
When you combine those two paragraphs above you will reach probably a conclusion: Monero's success is determined by the community. If you or me start saying: "no I do not accept Monero as my personal currency", so it will not be money for you and me either. Most likely the community will abandon XMR project.
However, the bull trend can save us and give some excitement & buzz around XMR. The bull trend should be so strong that your farting will not break it.
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I hope you are able to get your buy done at a nice low price. Would be a shame for all that FUDding to go to waste!
I don't believe fudding by noobs has any effect on the price. I don't even believe fudding by myself would have. Unfortunately you are wrong. Once some noobs start farting the price starts to drop and it might drop quite fast as we saw some time ago in this thread when it fell back to low 0.002. The price is too much dependent on the sentiment of some traders who love to dump the coin at any point they see it is possible to kill the bullish trendline. OMG... teh whale has spoken... quick guys sell all yor coin before its too late, sell all and realize the profit,, you can always buy back later after the whale done dumping. with all teh Inflation ahead, lack of GUI, dozen of competiting CN coin, and infinite emission tailgate... you cant take the chances that monero price will reach 10000 usd seriously... isnt  EDIT :: oh dear did you hear... psss... bts implement anonimity... XMR used to have high inflation, but that is pretty much past now.. If the dumpers did not have dumped probably the marketcap od XMR would have reached Darkcoin's marketcap. The inflation is only around 9300 coins per day which represents around 10 k usd. in the long run, moneros inflation is irrelevant tho... what matter is when all top 10 coin has anonymity implemented, how would xmr will stay relevant if we look at Eth for example, they already has Gui wallet although still beta 2 it seem, but improvement are constantly being implemented. Dash, they has gimmick like Anonymity, masternode, instantx, voting system... wow... in short, Xmr really really need to improve, old hype of gimmick anonimity alone will soon fade away. because only few people need superior anonimity, those are Terorist, drug dealer, tax evader, and kid molester and other horrible stuff while ordinary humble religious law abiding citizen only need to able to use their money easily without the hassle of Command line wallet  . yo will need to pimp your wallet that user can use it intuitively. honestly i want to hear more good news from xmr community regarding their wallet, as i too once xmr holder and convert all of them when i realize xmr dev seem ignoring investors call for improvement. have a nice day  11 600 000 coins have emitted. Has anyone calculated how long it will take when we have twice as many coin mined (23 200 000)? XMR has all the benefits of cash unlike bitcoin. I wouldn't say, ALL the benefits. They are just different. Fungibility is better, but spendability is much less. Can I haz a mobile wallet please? (actually , please link me to the latest Android wallet build, I forget who made one recently, I need to test it.) As regards to Android wallet: I am doomed to see the future yet unable to prevent it. |
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