Not all the bitcoins are for sale at any price.
If you go to the bitcoin exchanges, only a fraction of current money supply is for sale there (both in asks and in selling reserves). The majority of bitcoins are held in cold storages "for ever".
sure, but a $100,000 price would certainly tempt some lost coins out of the ether. i guess it would depend on the nature of the rise. if it looked like it was sticking around then sellers would sit back and do nothing. if it was a parabola then the fall would be brutal and swift. 0 to 1-10 billion market cap can happen without alot of people or money and can happen over and over again. to get into the trillions, even when it's just market cap, that's a once in a bunch of generations deal and will not happen in a couple of years. maybe bitcoin is it. we'll see. Each time the price rises the coins of weak hands will get redistributed to fresh hands who get only smaller portion of coins and they are dreaming of becoming a millionaire one day. Therefore their target is higher price and they will not sell before their target has been met which works as self-fulfilling prophecy. Price will not shoot to 100 000 usd overnight. It takes around 24 months (in my speculation). Basically, what it requires is that it rises to 10 000 within upcoming 12 months, and from 10k to 100 000 within the next period of 12 months. Judging the past behavior of bitcoin it is not impossibility. 24 months is after all relatively long time in crypto and a lot can happen. Basically I think this block halving is even more serious than the one in 2012 because now the annual inflation rate approaches the inflation rate of fiat money. I think the bankers will get interested in bitcoin if it hits 100 000 usd and that also can mean they start a bidding war of the coins. The bidding war will take bitcoin to another new level, and there is a possibility the Central banks will start accumulate bitcoins as well in the same manner they are accumulating gold bullion. You seem to think rises take place in a vacuum. For something that big it takes millions and millions of real people putting their real money in. A 0-10 billion rise only needs a few tens of thousands. I can't see any sign of millions of new people all pumping at once on the horizon. No I don't think it is a vacuum. Even now the price is hoovering between 610 and 690 for some days, and that's not a vacuum. There are real buyers and real sellers. However, I think 1000 usd was unsustainable 2013 because of inflation which generated 3600 new coins each day (around 10 % pa back then). I think you did not read my message carefully enough.  It is FOMO that makes these extreme highs with btc. First the price of bitcoin rises slowly and steadily to 3000 usd, then some early gamblers buy in and tell others also to buy which pushes the price to 10 000 usd. After that there is a crash to 1000-2000 usd and then stability over there for a while. Once the price has been stagnant for a while, smart money starts to move in and the price rises around 5000-7000 usd and then some early gamblers will enter, also a bankers and Wall Street might buy in and if that happens, the price of bitcoin will for sure go to 1000 000 usd/btc. |
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Once the sellers have sold, they cannot sell the same coins any more
No, but the buyer could. And his buyer could. And so on and so on. If the buyer sells at loss, he cannot continue for ever (he is out of business at some point). If he sells at profit, the coins get redistributed to new stronger hands. |
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Sorry but I forgot whether RingCT needs a hard fork.
I believe it does require a HF. Believing is not knowing. |
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1000 usd/btc in September 2016. Now it has a short period of stability before going to 1000 usd, and the rise there will take 1-3 legs.
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a few monfs is needed to exhaust the previous 25btc outputs when that is exhasuted to 12.5 btc outputs over time demand will increase and the price will be forced to rise from the ash lets learn the lessons from 2013 it only a matta of time
I've seen some Dutch guy on the Dutch forum part that uses professional technial analysis predicting that the price will touch 9000$ in the start od september. Sounds very nice but we will see will it happen. $9000 or $900? It still imposible to come above $1000 just after halving like this If want price come high ofcourse we need buyer, and yes who want buy a bitcoin at $9000 everyone will want to sell Once the sellers have sold, they cannot sell the same coins any more and the price will continue rising. |
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Not all the bitcoins are for sale at any price.
If you go to the bitcoin exchanges, only a fraction of current money supply is for sale there (both in asks and in selling reserves). The majority of bitcoins are held in cold storages "for ever".
sure, but a $100,000 price would certainly tempt some lost coins out of the ether. i guess it would depend on the nature of the rise. if it looked like it was sticking around then sellers would sit back and do nothing. if it was a parabola then the fall would be brutal and swift. 0 to 1-10 billion market cap can happen without alot of people or money and can happen over and over again. to get into the trillions, even when it's just market cap, that's a once in a bunch of generations deal and will not happen in a couple of years. maybe bitcoin is it. we'll see. Each time the price rises the coins of weak hands will get redistributed to fresh hands who get only smaller portion of coins and they are dreaming of becoming a millionaire one day. Therefore their target is higher price and they will not sell before their target has been met which works as self-fulfilling prophecy. Price will not shoot to 100 000 usd overnight. It takes around 24 months (in my speculation). Basically, what it requires is that it rises to 10 000 within upcoming 12 months, and from 10k to 100 000 within the next period of 12 months. Judging the past behavior of bitcoin it is not impossibility. 24 months is after all relatively long time in crypto and a lot can happen. Basically I think this block halving is even more serious than the one in 2012 because now the annual inflation rate approaches the inflation rate of fiat money. I think the bankers will get interested in bitcoin if it hits 100 000 usd and that also can mean they start a bidding war of the coins. The bidding war will take bitcoin to another new level, and there is a possibility the Central banks will start accumulate bitcoins as well in the same manner they are accumulating gold bullion. |
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I think it will reach 100 000 usd within 24 months from now. It is still relatively cheap and therefore you might want to consider to buy a few more since the inflation is not that bad anymore.
hot damn. you're thinking big. i think that's way too much of an ask in that amount of time. it would be about one fifth of gold's market cap. millions and millions of people would need to suddenly decide they wanted bitcoin in their life. an attitude change that radical don't happen that fast. Not all the bitcoins are for sale at any price. If you go to the bitcoin exchanges, only a fraction of current money supply is for sale there (both in asks and in selling reserves). The majority of bitcoins are held in cold storages "for ever". The people holding them have sold already enough of coins to retire for the rest of their lives and therefore do not feel any urgency to sell all their coins, anyway it is stupid to sell everything. Also a lot of coins have disappeared for ever. However, if this will not happen within 24 months I will not sell all my coins (most likely).  The time frame was based on the previous bubble which started late 2012 from 13 usd and ended at 1200 usd in Devember 2013 and lasted a little over 12 months. |
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The inflation of bitcoin is only 4 % pa which is somewhat low. As the currency basis grows, the inflation also drops slowly. And after the halving in 2020 the inflation will be around 1.75 % pa which is lower than the inflation target of some very conservative fiat money systems (European Central Bank).
I think it takes a few months now to readjust the price to this period of lower inflation.
It is not the same kind of inflation. I know. The point is 2 % is considered a low inflation rate, and personally I think 4 % is not that bad either so I am seeing the moon once people realize fully what has just happened. |
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After the next financial crisis before halving day 2020 I predict Bitcoin will be worth $100000.
However discussing the halving day 2020 is like discussing next Christmas on New Year's day. It's a little too soon to be thinking about halving day 2020.
I disagree. If you have invested in bitcoin, you need to be in the long run. Personally I think bitcoin can reach true highs after the next halving (and true highs I mean 10 000 000 usd/btc). With the current emission 100 000 usd/btc is very realistic price target. If that is reached it will also guarantee the fact that there will not be too much selling pressure once drops since the current holders have sold the amount of coins they need for survival of the rest of their lives and the remaining bitcoins will be "extra". I think it will reach 100 000 usd within 24 months from now. It is still relatively cheap and therefore you might want to consider to buy a few more since the inflation is not that bad anymore. |
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The inflation of bitcoin is only 4 % pa which is somewhat low. As the currency basis grows, the inflation also drops slowly. And after the halving in 2020 the inflation will be around 1.75 % pa which is lower than the inflation target of some very conservative fiat money systems (European Central Bank).
I think it takes a few months now to readjust the price to this period of lower inflation.
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First intraday support band for XMR looks like 260k-270k range. Second support 248k, and third support 228k. Such a wild ride!
Of course on a daily or weekly basis, it's still in a confirmed uptrend. That won't change any time soon unless it breaks all intraday support levels, hard, with a bullet, which is a <1% chance.
My guess is that we make new 2016 highs in August, somewhere between 500k and 600k.
Dump expected? |
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My speculation currently: Looks like the FOMO we had yesterday is over for now, so the guy expecting his paycheck can relax for a while now and not to take payday loans for buying Moneros because of FOMO. I am expecting correction but not too deep, around 0.0027-0.00285 levels, then stability before the next leg upwards. Personally I bought today some Silver, and I am planning to buy some bitcoins as well if its price drops. I am not planning to buy Moneros ATM though unless the price drops 0.001. Selling Moneros is not an option either - I will let the others sell now and waite until people come to beg some Moneros from me. Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it. If you feel bullish, there are bitcoins available in Polo for margin long. If you feel bearish, there are Moneros available for margin short. |
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Just reading the trollbox. There is a lot of praising Monero right now but also some more critical views.
Despite the number of Monero holders right now have increased I think there is still room to grow since not everybody adores XMR yet. When the troll box have multiple orgasms in a row I would be more careful in buying more Moneros.
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In case you feel FOMO, you can always borrow some bitcoins to marketbuy Moneros.  |
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Hello, Nice to see you back now as your selling targets are approaching.  I've not given any targets so you must assume I have targets in the same area as last rally. I don't. Don't get me wrong, it is vital for Monero that the coins will get redistributed. This is the very mechanism 1 XMR has chances to reach the ultimate goal of 2000 usd set by Reptilian in Polo trollbox back in 2014. |
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Very pleased to see the price break 0.003 tonight. The market looks very strong and bullish. I just noticed something interesting on the price chart. The price started going up on January 1st 2016 and never returned to those levels.  What happened on January 1st you ask? Monero version 0.9.0 Hydrogen Helix was released. It was a long awaited release, especially the switch from storing blockchain in memory to storing it in DB which meant running monero became viable for a lot more users. Was this the cause of the following price rise? There's this theory that market will price in everything in advance. Perhaps in a completely rational market this is the case, but markets are ruled by emotions. What's important to realize is that there had been no significant release for a very long time (more than a year). The price had just been consolidating in the gutter for a month after fully deflating from the previous bubble. After 8 months of only down, down and further down, people were losing hope, even I felt this. For a moment I started doubting my investment. When even true believers are considering selling we often have a turning point. I think Hydrogen Helix spurred real optimism in the market and is the major reason the price went up only to never return. The development was always visible on Github, but it wasn't until the actual release the market moved. On that note, keep an eye on this. Hello, Nice to see you back now as your selling targets are approaching. |
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I cannot believe, literally almost nobody is willing to take margin long positions (Monero is just one player in the margin trading arena). The bitcoin interest rates are at the bottom of the bottom and there are 8200 btc available for long positions. Imagine if this money flows to Monero, what will happen to the price, perhaps ATH?
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Bitcoin loans are now very affordable and as ETH bubble seems to be bursting there are plenty of bitcoins available now for margin long positions.
If you believe the price will rise faster than you need to pay interest, you might want to take a small long position...?
For those new here by careful when listening to TrueCryptonaire. Usually when he wants to sell his Monero, he talks very bullish and when he wants to buy Monero he talks very bearish. At one point he basically admitted this in his signature. Many of us enjoy his commentary as it is sometimes funny. Just be cautious about following his trading advice. Good point but I am not trading anymore. I am active in lending markets and face the hardships of getting decent interest rates from bitcoin side and the coins keep piling up. I have not been trading for long time anymore. Just buying if it hits 0.001. ------------------------------------- I think the Etherium investors are about to jump into Monero and it is important to welcome them warmly and happily. |
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Is there any particular reason that XMR is rallying so much vs. BTC right now (I'm out of the loop)?
At this point it is used to say "organic growth". When the price drops, it is all about whales manipulation attempting to get cheap coins.  |
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Bitcoin loans are now very affordable and as ETH bubble seems to be bursting there are plenty of bitcoins available now for margin long positions.
If you believe the price will rise faster than you need to pay interest, you might want to take a small long position...?
i have a small leveraged long position but nothing fancy, just for the lulz trading the swings with leverage can be helpful especially for the smaller traders. why risk 2.5 btc if i can have the same performance for 1 btc ? depending on the individual situation this can really make a lot of sense. That's exactly what I meant. Instead of playing 2500 (* XMR of your own coins you can risk only 1000 (* XMR and have the similar effects if you are in right position. Heck, you get bitcoin loans around 3.3 % pa right now...... *) The numbers are just examples and depends on the amount you can afford to lose in margin trading, it is indeed riskier than playing with "real coins" |
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