The GUI is currently functional for sending and receiving, some stuff like advanced options have to be finished but if you guys want you can already try and compile it from ilya´s github. Do you think it will affect on the price? Demand need to be sourced from somewhere. Some bigger guys need to buy in to collect the loose coins from the weak hands. Yes I do. I think there is a significant non-technical crowd we can cater to. People who been stuck in less optimal coins such as dash. It will allow all the moon kids to jump on board. Perhaps not the best crowd to have on board you may say, but a small technical crowd like we have in monero just doesn't cut it. We want to grow big, but we are only so many. If we have learned anything from watching shitcoins, it's that there is power in numbers, a swarm of people can spread the word a lot faster than a few big whales can. I hate to be the guy to say this, but the moon kids can actually serve a purpose if we want the attention we deserve. I am tired of monero, the best coin when it comes to anonymity, being consistently ignored by big voices in this space. There's a second reason I think it will affect the price and that's getting monero out of the exchanges. Very many have left their moneroj on the exchange because they're not comfortable with cli. Trust me, it's a lot easier to dump when all you have to do is click sell versus digging the coins out from cold storage. This will result in less selling pressure. Absolutely correct, the GUI will close the awareness <-> adoption feedback loop. It's definitely less fun using the CLI when your attention is being consumed by a market event significant enough to require cold wallet access!  Good point about moon kids, they may not be deep pockets but the noise they make may get the attention of actual whales. Remember how Roger Ver evangelized Bitcoin to the libertarian and Silicon Valley communities? He became Bitcoin Jesus by bridging the gap between the tiny, poor cryptonerd community and the myriad, wealthy individualist tribes. We need the equivalent (less the respective martyrdoms) to spread word of Monero to the financial sovereignty crowd, a Monero Buddha! That requires a battle tested GUI, as many political/financial users will glaze over at the sight of a CLI. How long is required for the GUI to accrue Lindy effects? Would a hefty bug bounty accelerate the process? I agree Monero needs people who are spokesmen and are bringing Monero to the elite. I think Monero needs higher market capitalization as well to attract investors. Now with 20 million market cap Monero is basically nothing. Minimum is 100 million to be even noticed. An investor do not want to be the main reason to drive the price up. Personally I have been accumulating for 2 years now and I will leave others to continue accumulation - I cannot continue it anymore. I hope there will be people entering to Monero-sphere and that they see the value in this project. |
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The GUI is currently functional for sending and receiving, some stuff like advanced options have to be finished but if you guys want you can already try and compile it from ilya´s github. img snarp Do you think it will affect on the price? Demand need to be sourced from somewhere. Some bigger guys need to buy in to collect the loose coins from the weak hands. Oh gee I dunno. The GUI has been about the only thing that people THINK is keeping XMR on the ground... and the price of a commodity is based on what people THINK it should be. Let's hope the people are right I guess.  My target for XMR is to reach parity with btc and btc to go the other side of the moon. |
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The GUI is currently functional for sending and receiving, some stuff like advanced options have to be finished but if you guys want you can already try and compile it from ilya´s github.  Do you think it will affect on the price? Demand need to be sourced from somewhere. Some bigger guys need to buy in to collect the loose coins from the weak hands. |
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Monero needs a big buyer or a few largish buyers. If I am not mistaken, it was thanks to Winklevoss guys that took bitcoin off. Personally I am done with my buying (hopefully it will not drop to my buy zone since I do not want to have any excessive amounts of coins).
Personally I'd love to see some serious rise with XMR finally. I am not dumping - do not worry - play time is over - and XMR is like btc, wether it goes to 0 or towards infinity. Better to become more serious or give up now as the most of Moneros are mined before the minimum inflation kicks.
Significiant rise is only due to big buyer(s) entering to the markets, and I mean buyers who will buy coins worth of several millions of dollars at one time (probably they need OTC trading though).
I think it is perfect time to start taking the big buyers into the markets - the OTC seller can buy slowly back the coins from exchange to avoid the slippage. Somehow the information has to be brought to the institutional investors. I doubt they will find us.
I am not satisfied even to 100 usd/XMR price.
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I have reached my limits in buying Monero already.
I have no need for extra Moneros. If it shoots up, I wil be rich. Otherwise I just hold my current coins and see if it can survive above 0.001.
Well then, you're no longer a speculator. For my part, I like to factor my holdings into an investment part and a trading part. The goal being to reduce the net cost basis of the investment part, over the long run. It's not hard to do if you can avoid an excess of emotional entanglement, be patient, have the restraint to wait for turns, and the cojones to double down when you bet wrongly. Sometimes I get too busy for it though - despite that it is more remunerative than the day job. After all, it's just money. Unless you can do something constructive with it, you are probably better off without it. Yes I made the transition from a speculator to an investor already 6-7 months ago, in the beginning of 2016 since this is the year Monero should start show some strength. I have not been buying that many Moneros this year anymore since the price is now so high that I cannot afford to buy more but at 0.001 I might consider. On the other hand, if I am able to buy at that price I am not too sure if I want to buy even at that price since the price should not be in the same levels as it was in 2014. |
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I think that it would be a great thing if the price is that high but to be honest I do not think that it is going to happen.
Allot of users and holders would sell there Bitcoin way before the price is even close to a million.
Yeah and people will not their coins that long and I am pretty sure people will sell all their coins even if it touches to $5k and 1m price is very difficult to achieve. But it don't have to be like that. Here's My Simple Plan: 1. Create a "digital businesses" that's "cheap to build and you do not need expenses to run," which "generates on average BTC 1/day profit." 2. Multiply by 50 3. Spend none of this passive 50BTC ($33,000 US)/day income. Ever. Forget that you're making 33 grand a day. 4. Get 100 other people to do same. 5. ? ? ? 6 PROFIT. +1 Sounds very good plan IMO. |
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I think things should get serious soon, otherwise there is also a risk that Monero looses the momentum and the short position is the only right position to be in. Right now the market cap is 20 million usd so if 1-2 large players are sure enough Monero fails, they can make some significiant amount of money by shorting it.
Clearly there is no momentum presently, none at all: Px is unchg since 7 July. Also clear, after the dump yesterday, is that you need to risk much more than 140,000 USD if you will ignite momentum. I would certainly encourage the attempt: From my point of view the most lucrative possible scenario is for someone to attempt a massive XMR short play, and anyone so evil as to do so needs to have their wealth stripped from them. Since price has lost its momentum, I don't expect much to happen until there is a catalyst. The most likely catalyst is a BTC rise front running the u.s. regulated market listings of winklevoss and solidx, but XMR software developments are also worth following. Bitcoin trust listings should result in gigantic inflows for crypto. All the alts will gain on that, but XMR much more than others. Solidx players already hold some XMR, and will probably seek to add for diversification out of BTC after gains associated with the listing. We are building a base now. It is the perfect time to accumulate, because risk is unusually low, and all the catalysts are favorable. Brexit served us well. Central banks are printing like never before, and likely to add more. U.s bonds and stocks are all at nose-bleed bubble highs, so that the downside risk is far greater than the downside risk in high grade crypto like BTC and XMR. Productive commodities are suffering from demand destruction, but monetary metals are prospering, and so too is investment grade crypto. Just as gold is retrenching now, so too is XMR. Just as gold is destined to rise into Autumn, so too is XMR. I have reached my limits in buying Monero already. I have no need for extra Moneros. If it shoots up, I wil be rich. Otherwise I just hold my current coins and see if it can survive above 0.001. |
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i think it is possible , if all people invest their all money in bitcoin, then i hope so that 1 bitcoin will be equal to $1,000,000 . but it will be take a long time for it happen .
If all the people go all in btc, it will be significiantly more expensive than 1 million. Just make some simple arithmetics and you will figure out. Especially, every day coins get lost and therefore out from circulation. At some point the loss of coins is higher than the inflation. |
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Perhaps if there are let's say 100 people starting 10-50 different digital businesses/person that accept btc as the only choice of payment it is possible, and they only accumulate coins, never sell them.
I'm gonna go ahead and assume that those bitcoin businesses sell what all bitcoin businesses sell: hopes and dreams. While the industrial moguls live in Mom's basements, eating Mom's food. Because ordinary businesses have expenses: overheads, salaries, restocking merchandise, taxes, etc., etc. Which necessitates spending. You did not understand what I meant. I talked about starting digital businesses, and sometimes they are cheap to build and you do not need expenses to run those. Running multiple web sites will not cost that much. If one site generates on average BTC 1/day profit, then multiplying it by 50 you get 50 btc profit/day - and if there are 100 such entrepreneus, they lock BTC 5000 /day to their cold storages. Eventually the price has to rise. A "digital businesses" that's "cheap to build and you do not need expenses to run," and "generates on average BTC 1/day profit"? I'm gonna go ahead and assume you mean a cut&run ponzi site? You do know that most internet gambling sites [with employees and stuff] don't generate 1 BTC($650)/day, right? Pro tip: there's no free money out there, the streets aren't really paved with gold, there's no "passive income," and there''s no free lunch. Half of the people in the world live on less than ~$2.50/day. Let that sink in. That's 260 times less than your free money machine "digital businesses" that's "cheap to build and you do not need expenses to run" makes in a day. TL;DR: you ought to get out more often, breathe some fresh air. Merchants that instadump the bitcoins will be no good for btc (except indirectly perhaps with visibility).
Merchants got to eat, feed and clothe their kids, have a place to poop & sleep, and to restock their shelves, so's they'd have something to sell. All that costs money, so they spend. Life is a bitch like that. The value of btc lies only on the holding of it, not using it as a payment token.
If BTC is not used as a currency (you know, money that's actually used to buy things), it is useless: no different than baseball cards or Beanie Babies. Internet is full of gambling sites. Try to figure out something else. Think a little bit outside of the box, and do not go to the save alternatives. Opportunities are infinite, but most people simply are like you: "It cannot be done, therefore it is better not to try". Those people end up being paid slaves for the rest of their lives, which makes their statement "there are no passive income opportunities" true to themselves like self fulfilling prophecy. There is no limit for ideas and innovations. The opportunities are endless. Personally I am in the position I do not have to work for my living, my tenants pay all the bills. Still, I work a little bit for social reasons + for having routines. |
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If you are talking about 1 BTC = $1,000,000 and the $1,000,000 you are talking about has the same purchasing power as $1,000,000 today then no. See my previous post in this very thread: We cannot/do not want to get to $1,000,000 or even $500,000 per BTC any time soon unless there is hyperinflation and the dollar were to lose most of its value. In other words the only way we are going to get to $1,000,000 or even $500,000 if for that many USD to be worth what $1,000 or $500 is worth today in terms of purchasing power. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour$75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2 e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world
Era starting year BTC/block BTC/hour GW power production
--- --------------- ----------- ---------- ----- ----------------
0 2009 50.00000000 0.00000000 1,350 58.41%
1 2013 25.00000000 0.00000000 675 29.20%
2 2017 12.50000000 0.00000000 337 14.60%
3 2021 6.25000000 0.00000000 169 7.30%
4 2025 3.12500000 0.00000000 84 3.65%
5 2029 1.56250000 0.00000000 42 1.83%
6 2033 0.78125000 1.31250000 27 1.17%
7 2037 0.39062500 3.65625000 27 1.17%
8 2041 0.19531250 4.82812500 27 1.17%
9 2045 0.09765625 5.41406250 27 1.17%
Of course my post is from before the reward was cut in half. We are now in era 2 so you can adjust the above numbers accordingly. Sure the consumption of electricity rises if btc hits 500 000-1 000 000 usd all of sudden. However, also the mining tech becomes better (more efficient) + there will be more supply for electricity. |
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Perhaps if there are let's say 100 people starting 10-50 different digital businesses/person that accept btc as the only choice of payment it is possible, and they only accumulate coins, never sell them.
I'm gonna go ahead and assume that those bitcoin businesses sell what all bitcoin businesses sell: hopes and dreams. While the industrial moguls live in Mom's basements, eating Mom's food. Because ordinary businesses have expenses: overheads, salaries, restocking merchandise, taxes, etc., etc. Which necessitates spending. You did not understand what I meant. I talked about starting digital businesses, and sometimes they are cheap to build and you do not need expenses to run those. Running multiple web sites will not cost that much. If one site generates on average BTC 1/day profit, then multiplying it by 50 you get 50 btc profit/day - and if there are 100 such entrepreneus, they lock BTC 5000 /day to their cold storages. Eventually the price has to rise. Merchants that instadump the bitcoins will be no good for btc (except indirectly perhaps with visibility). The value of btc lies only on the holding of it, not using it as a payment token. |
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It seems we could be testing .0028 before resuming the slow pace, sane bull run. What are your short term projections?
You can dump >41000 XMR to 288k if you like gambling. Some folks do. Aaaand... somebody did. LOL. It will be fun to watch them race to cover the loss. Your bullishness makes me nervous. There are short sellers trying to take it down now. You should be encouraged, because that means cheap now, higher later. Yeah and someone is getting leveled there... I think someone is levelling themselves in fact. After all, if there is a short position of 70 k coins opened, it is not that much. It is only worth of 10 days of inflation. Shorting doesn't mean the price goes up (why would one short if he thinks the price rises - long position is the right side to be). Sure shorts can be squeezed but that means someone needs to be able to control large amounts of money. Please bear in mind, already more than 12 million Moneros have been mined. When 12 btc was mined, the price touched 1000 usd. Monero barely 2 dollars. I think things should get serious soon, otherwise there is also a risk that Monero looses the momentum and the short position is the only right position to be in. Right now the market cap is 20 million usd so if 1-2 large players are sure enough Monero fails, they can make some significiant amount of money by shorting it. |
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1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)
The value of Bitcoin is never going to be that high, I think that we have to stay realistic and not speculate about things that we know are not going to happen. I would be a great thing if the value would be that high but it is impossible to think that it will happen. It would be really something if the price would be one million Dollar but a miracle would have to happen to get the price to be that high. Do not get your hopes up for the price to be this high because the chance is small. I guess you could call hyperinflation and destruction of the value of the USD a "miracle". Not what I would call it. You do not need hyperinflation and catastrophies to make btc a coin worth of 1000 000 usd. All you need is some stubborn bagholders and a lot of more demand from the current levels. Perhaps if there are let's say 100 people starting 10-50 different digital businesses/person that accept btc as the only choice of payment it is possible, and they only accumulate coins, never sell them. If one bussines is able to generate on average 1 btc/day, there is additional demand for cold storages 1000-5000 btc/day. Daily emission is 1800 coins. I think it is not impossible to find 100 entrepreneurs who are able to start this project from btc community. |
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Now it might be a perfect time to start hard accumulation. Never the fundaments of btc have been this good and appealing. The inflation is lower than ever before.
Over all, I am pretty optimistic about BTC these days. Definetely 1000 usd/btc by the end of 2016 is a no-brainer.
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You definetely need to find more demand in order to get the price to rise. The daily emission is 1800 btc (quite small IMO). As long as the demand exceeds the emission by high enough number, it eventually has to go up. If the demand is 2000 btc per day, the remainder 2000-1800=200 btc needs to come from the reserves of other holders. Thus, in the long run the coins will get redistributed in the manner that there will be no big whales and the tiny 200 btc excessive demand will boost the price up. The higher the excessive demand, the faster the process.  What can a person living in Pakistan do to achieve this? Start digital businesses (very low cost to maintain) that accept only btc and hold all the coins for the longest time and never sell. Thus, you build a bitcoin reserve for you that gets more valuable in the meantime. |
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In 2030 a million bucks will probably buy you a 1 bedroom apartment in Detroit. So it is highly likely that 10 BTC will make you a millionaire.
So you are bullish about the housing markets in Detroit? |
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It seems we could be testing .0028 before resuming the slow pace, sane bull run. What are your short term projections?
You can dump >41000 XMR to 288k if you like gambling. Some folks do. Aaaand... somebody did. LOL. It will be fun to watch them race to cover the loss. Your bullishness makes me nervous. |
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There is like over 1300 XBT in buy orders on Poloniex. Is something going to happen when people wake up in Europe?
Like I've been saying, someone knows something. A lot of those 1300 are far enough from market as not to matter. That doesn't change the fact that we've got some persistent buyers in there - buyers of only moderate patience. And I know the dump is coming when Aminorex is bullish and the perfect timing for accumulation is when 1) Aminorex is quiet (he is buying) 2) Aminorex tells us how good opportunities there are in shorting wheat and having long positions in NOK-USD trading pairs. BTW. Mr. Kavasaki has lost his interest in Monero completely. RIP I guess. |
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I would crowdfund the project of buying and withdrawing all the Moneros from the Poloniex.
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Once the price has been stagnant for a while, smart money starts to move in and the price rises around 5000-7000 usd and then some early gamblers will enter, also a bankers and Wall Street might buy in and if that happens, the price of bitcoin will for sure go to 1000 000 usd/btc.
i like your big sky thinking but it don't feel that simple to me. people were saying the same in 2013/2014 by the looks of things and they ended up having a bad time. we need to wipe out the current breed of manipulators to step on up. the only thing that'll do that is more buyers. let's see if there's a compelling reason for them to show up. I think people in 2013 and 2014 are very different from people today. Those people were probably bagholders who bought their bitcoins at 1000 usd or slightly under and now probably a portion of them have sold their coins at loss. Bitcoin cannot be manipulated since there is no naked shorting unlike in traditional markets. Sure you can set a sell or buy wall but they can be bought immediately. Manipulating the price down succeeds only if there are dumpers who have loose and shaky hands or miners with tons of coins and electricity bills piling up. Now the status quo is that the shaky hands have been shaken out from the markets in 2013-2014, and new stronger hands have taken the lead. So this issue has solved. Now we need to solve the issue of miners: actually we had a good solution yesterday when the block reward halved and miners have less coins to dump, therefore shorters will find it harder and harder to find the poor people who have to sell their coins for the covery of a short position. I am expecting a super pump in bitcoin during the coming months/couple years. A pump that might attract even bankers who will prolong the pump to one we have never seen before and it makes all of us ultra rich. I beg you guys - do not sell too early - prefertably never ever, just buy and hodl. |
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