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1401  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2016, 07:52:41 PM
I know there a lot of people who will say moon or something else, but what is a realistic price prediction for XMR with 3 till 9 months from now? thanks!

realistically?

3 months = $10

9 months = $100

For the first 1.5 years, Bitcoin also did not go anywhere at all.

Then it rose 640000% in less than a year.

For XMR, it would mean going to $5000 and higher this year.


LOL 5000$ and higher is really optimistic.

Then 10$ would be more realistic and 100$ when bitcoin will go 1000+$

I read Risto said that the similar ROI btc had in 2011 would mean XMR to go to 5000 usd.
1402  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2016, 07:45:10 PM
This guy who is shorting Monero make me rich.  Kiss
A lot of interest collected already to my endless pockets.
1403  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2016, 05:35:02 PM
Some "trading group" seems to be shorting XMR, see:

https://twitter.com/ActualAdviceBTC/status/706505597760311296

https://twitter.com/ActualAdviceBTC/status/706502147056111617

Furthermore, a lot of shorts are taken out and either dumped or put in the asks to protect current shorts.

I can confirm, that there are short sellers now in the markets. All my Moneros available for lending are been taken, and I am not giving out loans at minimum rates.
Quite largish short position now so there is not that much downside IMO.

I can confirm.  What are you charging for lending rates?  I'm getting like .08% ... I've seen some evidence that polo manipulates the lending market

If you look at btc markets, you feel inclined to deposit btc when you see the daily rate is 1.0 %. Once your coins appear, behold the market rate is around 0.4-0.5 %..
For XMR I aim to get at least the daily inflation rate which is sligthly below 0.1 % per day.. Some loans I have managed to get almost 0.13 % although. The higher rate, the longer term I can go.
1404  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2016, 05:03:12 PM
Some "trading group" seems to be shorting XMR, see:

https://twitter.com/ActualAdviceBTC/status/706505597760311296

https://twitter.com/ActualAdviceBTC/status/706502147056111617

Furthermore, a lot of shorts are taken out and either dumped or put in the asks to protect current shorts.

I can confirm, that there are short sellers now in the markets. All my Moneros available for lending are been taken, and I am not giving out loans at minimum rates.
Quite largish short position now so there is not that much downside IMO.
1405  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2016, 10:41:35 AM

 I am not familiar with Krona of Iceland but I guess the marketcap of even that small currency based on fishing industry is more than 1 billion usd.

We don't even have a fishing industry yet!


I am not completely aware of all the possibilities XMR enables but for me personally it is a store of value. If I invest for instance 25 % of each rental cheque (after taxes and other fees) into XMR, it means XMR is partially backed by appartments in Finland.
And perhaps later in US if I decide to start a real estate investing company in US. I have some contacts there already.
1406  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2016, 10:35:30 AM
In this climate as of now, I have pseudo-endorsed Monero FWIW:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387214.msg14112660#msg14112660

Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"?

My understanding is that Monero is reasonably widely held by many people who believe in crypto currency and decided that Monero represented a best open source effort amongst altcoins. And so I don't think they are in it for a short-term speculation, nor are they holding so much that they need to sell.

The hot money may rush out, but the faithful will probably scoop up coins at roughly that price level. Okay maybe $1 - 5 million. I am just saying it can't totally collapse. Whereas, those coins which are hype which is so technologically flawed that they are useless and have 0 adoption such as Ethereum, Factom, MaidSafe, Storj, etc, could go to ~0. Ethereum perhaps not if they raised some $millions during this pump, so they can probably keep the hope alive for a while ($200,000+ per month burn rate  Shocked).

Let's say there are 1000 long-term investors holding (invested) $5000 each on average. That is $5 million. And the market cap is usually much larger than the actual capital invested (although that might not be the case for Monero since apparently it was so fairly mined and widely held and not pumped because the price can't be manipulated by buying from yourselves, because it isn't primarily held by a few whales).


I think it is hard to figure out how many people are invested in XMR.
Try to buy XMR worth of 5000 usd and look at price chart what happens. Probably you are making a candle.
I am saying, 5 million marketcap is a marketcap that is supported when there is very little interest in XMR. That has been a solid rock bottom and personally I consider it a low probability event to go there anymore (unless btc will crash big time), that would need XMR should drop to 0.001-0.0012 levels and below when new coins are mined.
Of course I might be wrong here but I am playing with probabilities, and if you think the current marketcap is too high for XMR in the long run, then by all means, sell or even go to short position. I can lend you some Moneros if you need.  Grin

I think TPTB was actualy bullish on Monero in his own super bearish overall sentiment way. Everything will crash but Monero has the best chances of not crashing as much or maybe not at all kind of...

I am saying 5 million marketcap for XMR is nothing.
100 million marketcap neither is nothing. No currency has such a low market cap. I am not familiar with Krona of Iceland but I guess the marketcap of even that small currency based on fishing industry is more than 1 billion usd.
1407  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2016, 09:48:37 AM
In this climate as of now, I have pseudo-endorsed Monero FWIW:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387214.msg14112660#msg14112660

Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"?

My understanding is that Monero is reasonably widely held by many people who believe in crypto currency and decided that Monero represented a best open source effort amongst altcoins. And so I don't think they are in it for a short-term speculation, nor are they holding so much that they need to sell.

The hot money may rush out, but the faithful will probably scoop up coins at roughly that price level. Okay maybe $1 - 5 million. I am just saying it can't totally collapse. Whereas, those coins which are hype which is so technologically flawed that they are useless and have 0 adoption such as Ethereum, Factom, MaidSafe, Storj, etc, could go to ~0. Ethereum perhaps not if they raised some $millions during this pump, so they can probably keep the hope alive for a while ($200,000+ per month burn rate  Shocked).

Let's say there are 1000 long-term investors holding (invested) $5000 each on average. That is $5 million. And the market cap is usually much larger than the actual capital invested (although that might not be the case for Monero since apparently it was so fairly mined and widely held and not pumped because the price can't be manipulated by buying from yourselves, because it isn't primarily held by a few whales).

I think it is hard to figure out how many people are invested in XMR.
Try to buy XMR worth of 5000 usd and look at price chart what happens. Probably you are making a candle.
I am saying, 5 million marketcap is a marketcap that is supported when there is very little interest in XMR. That has been a solid rock bottom and personally I consider it a low probability event to go there anymore (unless btc will crash big time), that would need XMR should drop to 0.001-0.0012 levels and below when new coins are mined.
Of course I might be wrong here but I am playing with probabilities, and if you think the current marketcap is too high for XMR in the long run, then by all means, sell or even go to short position. I can lend you some Moneros if you need.  Grin
1408  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: I just mortgaged my house to buy ethereum on: March 06, 2016, 07:08:40 AM
You guys will be much better off buying XMR in my opinion.
Obviously I want to congratulate all of those people who have purchased ETH last year, now it is better to diversify into XMR. Just make a good plan (like sell 5 % of your eth on daily basis to buy xmr). The supply of Monero starts to be pretty dry these days so the price will be pretty high.

Some of Etherium community are already buying Moneros with their profits.
1409  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2016, 06:40:30 AM
One trillion is 10^12 in the US.

Okay, my bad.  Lips sealed
1410  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2016, 06:39:36 AM
Quote

I love speculation, therefore, here is my speculation: in 2036 Shit has hit on people's fan badly enough ...snip... therefore the value of 1 XMR is 69 billion usd. If 90 % of XMR remains in cold storages and only 10 % of XMR are in circulation, the value of each XMR in this case is 690 billion (10^9).



I love your fantastic speculation,   but regarding the first bit, I speculate that you are off by an order of magnitude.   2 years should suffice to soil the fan, in my view.

Yes, I think XMR is definetely larger in 2 years than it is now. However, I am aiming world dominance and that might take more than 2 years because sometimes people are slow in their decisions. It took me 1-2 years to buy my first silver round after I heard the silver related propaganda of Risto.
1411  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2016, 06:37:39 AM
is monero ever going to catch up to eth, eth seems to always be like a rocket ship while xmr is making relatively slow gains. Undecided

The slower the better as far as I am concerned. Or more to the point, the less tradable volatility the better.  It makes it so much easier for random people to hold, and encourages currency use, as well as reserve demand.  We need more market makers as things heat up, to smooth the curve.

I can do some market making but I am not thinking of doing it now when XMR is still so tiny.
When 1 xmr is like 1000 usd I might do it with smaller scale (like 10 000-20 000 usd). When XMR grows to bigger size (like 1000 000 usd/XMR) I will find marketmaking more useful. These levels even smaller guys can do it, all you need is a tiny bit of money and a lot of time. Money I have enough but I do not find it profitable enough timewise when the volumes are low and XMR is moving like a beast. After all, we are still in accumulation zone and the accumulators tend to eat the stack of market maker.
1412  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2016, 06:06:04 AM
For me Monero is a store of value over longer periods (like Chinese Panda coins). Despite they are officially money (however, nominal value much lower than the metal value).
I think there will be merchants who accept XMR as a method of payment (I believe there are also a few merchants that understand the value of PMs and accept gold and silver as a method of payment at some exchange rate).
I do not need everybody in the world accepting XMR, for me it is cool if there are 1-2 reputable dealers of PM, perhaps opportunities to purchase some other assets that increases my networth. Consuming is not a big thing and I usually do not buy my cup of coffee because it becomes a big amount of money in one year (5 euros a day, 365 days a year => 1825 euros a year or 2000 usd).

I love speculation, therefore, here is my speculation: in 2036 Shit has hit on people's fan badly enough that they have searched alternative methods to store money aside of fiat system. PM are nice but only in smaller quantities. I think Risto is aware of what kind of stack of silver it is to hold 1 million euros in silver. Even for the case of gold, it is pretty heavy brick to carry around (for instance, if you need to escape the war from country a to country b you probably want to carry as little stuff with you as possible).

Currently even physical banknotes of USD are 1.38 trillion (source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/currency_12773.htm )
And that is only a small fraction of the overall money supply, but let's say for arguments sake a conservative number: XMR has achieved 1.38 trillion (or 1 380 000 000 000 000 000 usd - trillion is 10^18).
20 000 000 XMR in circulation (most of them are stored in cold storages so this is also not realistic but a very conservative estimation), therefore the value of 1 XMR is 69 billion usd. If 90 % of XMR remains in cold storages and only 10 % of XMR are in circulation, the value of each XMR in this case is 690 billion (10^9).

1413  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: I just mortgaged my house to buy etherium on: March 05, 2016, 07:51:08 PM
sell your wife, get more gas!
This starts to be some sort of madness with this coin.
Every where you look theres that altcoin poping.
Im afraid to open my fridge, eth will probably pop there as well.
Its doing good so far thats a fact but is as unstable as any other.
I like dodge, it almost never fluctuates so as LTC but people say its dead, so its not good
either, when some coin stabilises for good it will be next BTC

Personally I think it is prudent to diversify into Monero. The prospects of Monero are now looking better than ever before.
I am not recommending to take a mortgage to buy XMR but some nice diversification of assets is probably a good thing to do.
To be honest, I do not like btc at all... It is not stable and probably the price will not significiantly rise (I can be wrong though).
Monero can be used as a store of value over decades, and that will bring value to the network. When people start putting their savings (or a part of their savings) into Monero it will climb up.
1414  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 05, 2016, 07:14:19 PM
I wonder when the wars will break out for XMR?  Grin
1415  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 05, 2016, 03:16:28 PM
Etherium folks seem to be reasonable, as far as I am aware, they are buying Monero also... This is what I read from trollbox.
1416  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 05, 2016, 02:02:14 PM
Dumpers tend to be early and when the price really starts rising is when the dumpers are done their selling. Therefore many coins have suffered from hardships to go beyond the ATH. There are more air when we establish XMR over ATH price as the weak hands have been shaken before it.
With current volumes of 1000-3000 btc a day with 0 weak hands the price of XMR theoretically could be 0.10-0.20 BTC/XMR.
That's with current emission. The emission is getting lower quite fast still... By the end of this year it is already quite tight.

BTW, 40-50 % of the shorts I was offering has been closed during past few hrs at loss (they were taken around 0.002).
1417  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 05, 2016, 01:55:02 PM
Summer 2014 the emission was a lot higher and there were pretty much nothing done to develope the product.
newb question, what does the emission of Monero mean?

How many new coins are created per day.
1418  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 05, 2016, 01:34:01 PM
happiness is not tied to spending
Mostly to the happiness of your spouse, I have found.  I think a good spouse will encourage and enable you to be your best self, which includes making your best spending choices.

My spouse comes from a large family and from home she has used to not to get everything.
That's actually helping us to grow the wealth as well... I think she spends outside of necessities like 100 euros/mo which is reasonable. Personally I use almost nothing (sometimes go out but very rarely).
We both are investing in real estate and we are about to pre-close one deal from Helsinki area which will be rented for short-term leases with higher ROI. Of course it employs a little bit as the appartment needs cleaning max 1-2 times a week.
1419  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 05, 2016, 12:51:12 PM
Did I look the price chart upside down . Anything significant happened to monero ?

The bottom line: XMR project is about to start getting wind under her wings and it will basically fly us to the moon.
For me the use of XMR is a store of value and for that purpose the marketcap need to be driven so high that one person cannot move the price of the coin to any direction.
Now it is time to start to fund the marketcap and slowly add more Moneros to your portfolio.

If you are like me, considering XMR as a store of value, I would not put any limits how many XMR I want at max (minimum limits I've put). The reason: I am not willing to put the upside limit of how much money I want to own (XMR is money).
My exit strategy is buying stuff with XMR and probably replace those XMR whenever I have funds to do so.

That's the real use of XMR for me. Obviously everybody need to figure out themselves what they want from it. Some people might want anon transactions, some people might need to transfer funds overseas fast but anon way or some people want XMR to be their safe haven and the ultimate money which they can give as inheritance to children.
1420  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 05, 2016, 10:54:47 AM
Every time I think it's done, we bump a little higher.  Will we see 400k this trip?  Top 430k?  or can moon be a real destination?  I just love being well out of the red ink for a change  Tongue



The problem is, I have no clue how high it ends but definetely a lot higher.
Arguments:

Summer 2014 the price stabilized to 0.004 (btc was around 400-600, correct me if I am wrong) into form of a triangle.
Summer 2014 the emission was a lot higher and there were pretty much nothing done to develope the product.
Now we are living in 2016, XMR approaching her second anniversary of the coin, had near death experience (case Bitcoinexpress), an epic dump last spring. I guess someone has posted the video link also, code has been fixed and a lot of yet undone development have been funded (so the money will not be the issue here to get XMR rock'n'nrolling - especially as the price increases, the bounties are getting more and more delicious).

I guess the real destination of XMR is to get the marketcap in trillions of USD. I think it will take decade to achieve it without the help of investors. It will be less if we get some VC-money flowing into XMR (like 100+ millions of usd type of funding).
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