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1221  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 13, 2016, 01:08:06 PM
I told you guys a month or so ago, that XMR had broken out against BTC and that it wouldn't make lower lows w.r.t. to BTC, but you needed to sell some because the market is going to be incredibly volatile and bear market directed until later this year or Q1 2017.

I explained the reason in my prior post, if you click off to read the detailed post, you will learn something.

No one listens to me  even though I am nearly always correct on the markets. How many examples would you need. I called the first top in ETH, then the overall top in March before others did. I called the rise of silver from $25 to $48 and decline to $26 on Oct 2010 many months before it occurred. I called various moves in Bitcoin such as predicting on this forums last April or May that Bitcoin would rally to $320 then decline.

Wow! You must be a billionaire!
1222  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 13, 2016, 01:00:19 PM
Monero looks very similar to last year.
It spiked in the spring, then hoovered around 0.002-0.0025 for some time and in autumn was dumped to 0.001.
We should see Monero rising and breaking the resistance on 0.004-0.0045 levels in order to be bullish in mid-long term. The long term bullish is when it basically says farewell to previous ATH from 2014.

Monero could potentially get demand from dark markets if some people are capable and willing to do it. Also, as Panama papers were published, the people who were revealed could potentially be interested in XMR. The problem is nobody cares to market to them (including me).  Cheesy We are basically sitting and hoping people will find XMR instead of us finding the people. As I said, I cannot blame anyone because I am as lazy and a free rider as everyone else.  Cool
1223  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 11, 2016, 01:15:35 PM
What do you think about possibilty of monero's rates moving back again from 0.003 or 0.004 rates ?

Will it?  I strongly believe it will.

When?  No idea.

I tend to agree.
Even 2000 usd/xmr is possible, however the probability is significiantly lower than reaching 0.003-0.004.
The bottom line is, anything can happen and when there are strong buyers buying behind the scenes, many will turn bearish but the price will continue rising (like it happened with btc - even wizard Reptilian sold part of his coins way too early to buy the castle).
1224  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 10, 2016, 07:03:40 PM
When Aminorex is speaking us about wheat futures and options and some currency trading opportunities it is time to load some Moneros. I've noticed that when he is bullish, the correction is on its way and when there are trading opportunities elsewhere the price is at the bottom.
1225  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 10, 2016, 03:08:54 PM
big battle going on in 220k. I will guess this is the bottom.

TrueCryptonaire, TheKoziTwo, buy back now or cry l8er Tongue

I have sold 0 Moneros in this bull run but bought some.
My overall average price is currently at 0.002ish so I do not see any reason to buy. The only reason I could be buying is if I get my average price down.

I am equally content if the price shoots from here to ATH - still bagholding.
I am very happy with the amount of Moneros I have right now and I will be extremely wealthy if the best case scenario (like 2000 usd/xmr) will take place. Until that I will keep building my portfolio elsewhere and working hard.  Cheesy
1226  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 10, 2016, 10:51:42 AM
This could be the bottom for a couple of days.

Unless someone buys in big time and takes us to over 0.0043 with buy of a great grandeur probably within the coming months we are still going down approximately 50 % from the current value. We will see if I am right with this... Do not get me wrong, I would love to be proven wrong. However, I am pleased also to buy more to get lower cost average, the cost average is the bright side of dump.
1227  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 10, 2016, 10:49:15 AM
Now lets see who makes the first big buy, support building at 0.002.

I am sorry I cannot do that but if you want to do it obviously you are free to do so.  Smiley
The trend broke too badly. It is time to go down and rest a little bit (some months) and probably go its long term resting state value of 0.001.
1228  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 10, 2016, 10:33:44 AM
Personally I am very cautious now.
Too much dumping taking place... Looks like we need to stay at 0.001 for a while before the next leg upwards.
I am preparin some cash to roll over to btc in case Monero goes to 0.001 and stays there a few more months.
Looks like I need to postpone 2000 usd/xmr a little bit, the good thing is I have time to waite even decades (if I am granted days to live so long).
1229  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 10, 2016, 09:03:51 AM
Well shaking those means basically we can forger Monero because it means significiantly lower price to shake them away (something like 0.0005 or lower) and at that point, if there are still developing going on, I would estimate the competition for the coins are pretty fervent since quite many can afford to purchase a significiant part of the network.

I will start buying at 0.001ish with significiant accumulation with the target to purchase quite large stake of coins so probably without leg up to new high we will go there, but there are some resistance on the way down.

If the price goes up, I am more than happy (actually I hope more the price to rise towards new ATH more than drop back to the levels of December 2015).

well XMRBTC is only part of the story. We can easily go to sub 0.001 and be above $1 if BTC moons. Will you say XMR has failed then ?

It is hard to say if XMR is failed... It depends on many factors, such as is there tech development going on, is the funding sufficient to take the tech to the level it should be. If the aswear is yes, then the likelihood of failure is significiantly lower.

Monero has traded sub 0.001 (in fact I have bought some coins sub 0.001 level, but something like 20 or so coins only).

The other factor to consider about the success vs. failure is the community. Is the community willing to support 0.001 level or not. If not, then it probably goes to 0. If yes, then there are chance of rising back and even to go to ATH and these bullish predictions of 2000 usd/xmr.
However, the major obstacle to achieve these high levels are the whales. Most likely the whales will "redistribute" their coins to the smaller fish on the way to 2000 usd per coin and thus giving resistance to the way up there. If everybody refuses sell any Moneros below 2000 usd and everybody is willing to buy any Monero they can afford sub 2000 usd it is possible to achieve. As long as there are weak hands and coin is highly speculative, the price crashes if even a noob-account farts a bad smelling fart and start to shit on others (sorry my language).  Grin

I do not think the price of BTC has that much to do with the success of XMR, it is an independent currency and BTC is only a tool to channel dollars into XMR.
1230  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 10, 2016, 08:44:58 AM
~50% retrace of the rally & some significant support, maybe we'll see a bounce. If we are going to see new ATH any time soon then bulls should protect this levels. Else we will move to the next range 0.0016-0.0022.

edit: Many people are not afraid and saying that their average is ~0.002, maybe we need to see more pain and shake those people out?

Shaking out people who bough at 0.001 would be even better so lets wait for an all time low Smiley

Well shaking those means basically we can forger Monero because it means significiantly lower price to shake them away (something like 0.0005 or lower) and at that point, if there are still developing going on, I would estimate the competition for the coins are pretty fervent since quite many can afford to purchase a significiant part of the network.

I will start buying at 0.001ish with significiant accumulation with the target to purchase quite large stake of coins so probably without leg up to new high we will go there, but there are some resistance on the way down.

If the price goes up, I am more than happy (actually I hope more the price to rise towards new ATH more than drop back to the levels of December 2015).
1231  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 10, 2016, 07:06:54 AM
How easily sentiment changes to bearish...

It is because Monero is way too speculative at the moment.
There are not much (significiant enough) fundamentals to maintain the price apparently.
However, these issues probably will be fixed soon TM.

Personally I am still bullish but only long term. I am a buyer at 0.001.
1232  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 10, 2016, 04:54:40 AM
My version of a reality check:

TA on Monero:
   Yes. It has meaning, but Monero is thinly traded on a single exchange primarily, and it has a fairly small liquid available float and it is tightly held by zealots while some traders duke it out with what's left over to shoot back and forth at each other.

Monero is an alt coin:
Alts are just simply negative EV propositions. Period.  Take a look at historical charts for all alt coins. The all look like triple black diamond ski slopes.  There are obvious reasons for this.  Most alts are scams. All alts are competing with papa bitcoin for value.  

Alts are all suffering badly right now.
Look at polo. Its a effing bloodbath.

Moneros dirty little secret is botnet miners.
There are some good arguments to be made for botnets.  But there are some unfortunate realities too.  One is it is highly profitable for bot shepherds to mine mine mine dump rinse and repeat.  Some may like making videos of the dumps with music soundtracks and digs at rich Finns.

All the talk about manipulation etc... Meh.  Sure there is some, but the conspiracy theories floating around sound pretty silly to me.

Monero goes up. Monero goes down.  Without a fairly lucky black swan type event 'down' is gonna dominate.

I personally think it's worth the risk.  I think it is one of the only cryptocurrencies which has a good shot.

cAPS out...

I tend to agree with this post mainly.
However as regards of botnet miners, what is exactly the bad thing about it (besides it makes it harder to mine for average Joe who has all the sympathies of us?). If I am not mistaken, botnets actually benefits the coin as the mining is more diversified as opposed to bitcoin that are mined in a large scale at "mining factories" in Iceland or China.

The charts look bearish, and I am looking at 0.001 btc price to be the price I will buy more. If we do not get there ever again, then great. If we get there, I will be a buyer. On the other hand, I am also a buyer on the way up (but obviously much smaller scale).

My current holdings are so small that I did not even bother to sell and dump on you guys so I guess I am sinking with you all the way to the bottom (whatever it will be). Some resistance is at 0.002-0.0025 levels but if there will be no bullish leg with major buying, we are definetely going down from there at some point. Usually it takes a few months for the price to consolidate and stabilize to 0.001.
1233  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 09, 2016, 09:19:16 PM
I will correct a bit my statement: to buy more I need to be convinced the bull trend continues or Monero drops to 0.001. However, the latter case I might increase my holdings 800-900 %.  Wink
1234  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 09, 2016, 08:54:16 PM
I am willing to support 0.001... Personally my average price is around 0.002, no point to buy more unless it will benefit somehow. To support the growth I am willing to increase a bit my average price but if the growth fails (like it looks now) I need to cost average. For me it is too expesive now to buy it even for 0.0015 as there is no point doing so.

I have not sold though since I do not care my current holdings so much.  Grin
1235  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 09, 2016, 06:58:01 PM
Looks like I need to prepare some btc ready for accumulation. I am planning some heavy accumulation if you guys want to throw the towels to the ring.  Wink
1236  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 09, 2016, 01:10:08 PM
Anybody has some clues whether last big dump was a short or real coinz?

My guess is it was a short due to the spike in interest rates.
However, if I am wrong, the spike of interest rates was then due to lenders withdrawing the coins from lending markets.

I wasn't here to watch the dump in real time, but I looked at bitcoinwisdom, and if we take a look at minute by minute by volume we have:

01:26 - 20228
01:27 - 1839
01:28 - 15.3
01:29 - 36
01:30 - 28.9
01:31 - 29.5
01:32 - 252
01:33 - 2044
01:34 - 507
01:35 - 22670
01:36 - 17765
01:37 - 75
01:38 - 13105
01:39 - 39714
01:40 - 29239
01:41 - 9252
01:42 - 5648
01:43 - 1542
01:44 - 11386
01:45 - 2292

So it took about 20 minutes in total. Could be multiple sellers, shorters and buyers combined. It does not seem to be one entity although whoever dumped the first ~20k probably started it.

Image removed

Yup. Probably some percentage of the contents of the candles have also buying (I estimate around 30 % minimum).
20 minute dump to bids is a clear manipulative action. If the seller was a legitimate seller (s)he probably would have done the trade OTC or setting smaller ask ramps and support the bid-side or if the seller had hurry selling could have resulted better results if dumped in portions of 200-300 XMR per hour so that the buyers would have more time to send their slowly moving btc to Polo and give the markets for the seller.
1237  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 09, 2016, 11:22:21 AM
Train just derailed. We went up for some time, now it's time to go down for some time. I will hopefully buy back ~0.002.

I don't think so. Just a very badly disguised manipulative dump. Hang on did I say disguised? Lol.

I will continue to buy my monero. Bitcoin looks about to roll over anyway.

I agree. If the dump was done by whales I would be worried... As for now, when shorters dump by borrowing coins from the lenders. I speculate the shorters will get burned and XMR will have a steep spike upwards.
1238  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 09, 2016, 09:39:59 AM
someone just dumped over 3000 XMR borrowed from me... So there are shorters now in the market.
I am not worried at all since they will repay in one way or another (+ I get interest payments hopefully for entire period of 60 days).

Those shorters make me even more convinced to buy more coins. If the dumpers were whales I would be worried but knowing they are just a few random guys who can afford to throw their bitcoins towards betting XMR I am not worried but buy coins from them and lend those same coins back to them.  Kiss
1239  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 09, 2016, 09:01:21 AM
Anybody has some clues whether last big dump was a short or real coinz?

My guess is it was a short due to the spike in interest rates.
However, if I am wrong, the spike of interest rates was then due to lenders withdrawing the coins from lending markets.
1240  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: April 09, 2016, 08:37:33 AM
The interest rates are up in XMR markets.
Wether the big lender has withdrawn coins from the markets or there is increased demand for Monero denominated loans due to massive shorting.

Shorting hurts Monero's market cap in short term but once the loan is repaid the coins need to be purchased with interests so in the longer run (max 60 days) it will help XMR. Even if the short is held longer than 60 days (refinanced), in the refinancing period interests need to be repaid so some kind of buying pressure will be in the marketplace at spot price.
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