 El nuevo formato no permite ver compras y ventas a la vez.. por lo que el mapa parece más vacío. Sin embargo esta página no para de mejorar y añadir más opciones. Una de las mejoras que más me gusta es que permite poner el precio de BTC en XAU (oro) y XAG (plata) por lo que se puede hacer trueque directo de oro/plata por bitcoins... lo cual desde el punto de vista fiscal puede ser interesante. |
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1. @jordievole
Esta semana:
2. @Suanzes
3. @cultrun
4. @pedroj_ramirez
5. @hermanntertsch
6. @pacomarhuenda
7. @julia_otero
8. @susannagriso
9. @radiocable
10. @antonlosada Bueno, yo esta semana le he mandado 0.01 BTC a @Suanzes No se si servirá de mucho, pero el coste es ínfimo. |
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Actually, Rickards' final summary speech brings up a lot of points that are worth discussing. He did a nice job of putting together some of the major threats...
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Wow!
This is a pretty nice article, especially for the FT. Unsurprisingly the headline plays the fear card, but still, overall it's surprisingly positive.
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Podríamos ir avanzando por la lista. Por ejemplo el próximo viernes todos a:
1. @jordievole
...y en las semanas siguientes:
2. @Suanzes
3. @cultrun
4. @pedroj_ramirez
5. @hermanntertsch
6. @pacomarhuenda
7. @julia_otero
8. @susannagriso
9. @radiocable
10. @antonlosada
Insisto.. si no lo cobran sale gratis, pero es difícil que te mencionen 10 veces en twitter y no te enteres. Como mínimo les entrará curiosidad.
Bueno, pues yo hoy le acabo de enviar 0.02 a @jordievole... a ver si alguien sigue el ejemplo. La semana que viene a @Suanzes. |
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The United States' top anti-money-laundering regulator Thursday said her agency isn't working to clamp down on virtual currencies (yet) Jennifer Shasky Calvery, director of the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network |
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Nice spoof. I loved the dig at Krugman at the end. Hehe - the Internet never forgets.
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As for "infrastructure"... it's nice to have a new bridge.. but the fact that it exists is not as useful in estimating value as statistics on how much traffic it carries. Toll roads are perfect for this because you can tell if it was worth it by seeing the operating businesses' profitability.
So it's nice to know that Bitinstant has "700.000 BTC points of sale" or "MSB licenses in 30 states" but the really useful information is how many people are actually using their $-BTC bridge (and paying at their toll booth). If Bitinstant, Coinbase or Mt.Gox are profitable and keep growing, other companies will emerge to copy their business models and build more roads. Or they themselves will build more bridges in other countries.
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Forex traders would disagree with you. The only way to value a currency is by price. Infrastructure matters in the fixing of price only as much as it creates faith in the currency.
Fundamental analysis studies the intrinsic value of a currency and uses indexes called economic indicators. Economic reports like GDP, CPI, retail sales, interest rates and industrial production help traders determine value. The value of Bitcoin can't be tracked this way.
Technical analysis of currency value can use the above indicators but also uses political stability, the reliability of paying debt, trade balances and demand for the currency as a commodity. This has little to do with infrastructure and everything to do with price. This is the only way to track Bitcoin.
People crudely speculating on current money flow or political circumstances are doing it right. They are attempting to use available knowledge to determine current value direction and make an informed trading decision.
Your definitions are wrong. Sovereign debt risk, trade balances and demand to hold cash balances in that currency are all FX fundamentals, together with other economic indicators. Technical Analysis is used a lot in forex, but technical indicators are mostly chart-related (see http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/technicalanalysis.asp). Also I don't see why the GDP of the Bitcoin economy can't be estimated, just as the GDP of many small countries are. In fact it should be easier, since the blockchain is public, whereas national accounting statistics miss out on a lot of stuff. You can try it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product#Determining_GDPAnother, perhaps more interesting question would be... what is the point? GDP is a relatively useless statistic anyway. Much better to have the transaction volume ( https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume) or the transanction fees paid ( https://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees) that will give you a really good idea of the Bitcoin economy's flow, size and growth. Believe me, if economists (and traders) could have these kind of real time statistics on the US economy, they would not give a damn about crappy, government-estimated GDP. |
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Fast rule of thumb:
Nº of users x $XXX = BTC Bitcoin market cap
Where
$XXX = average demand for BTC cash balances in $
In other words how much $ value are users, on average, willing to hold in BTC.
At present I would estimate
nº of users: 2-3 million
$XXX: $100-1000
So the "reasonable" mkt cap for Bitcoin would be between (2m x $100) and (3m x $1000):
$200 Mn - $3 Bn.
Given 11 million BTC in circulation that would give us a BTC "fair price" range of
$18-272
It's a pretty wide range!
But if you want to narrow it down you can, by calculating more accurate and narrow estimates for the components of this equation.
A decent estimate of nº of users could probably be made by adding client downloads and the nº of users of the top 5-10 online wallet services.
The only way to estimate $XXX (other than a survey of bitcoiners with a statistically relevant sample size) would probably be to pick a time period of relative price stability (at least 2 months of BTC price trading in a narrow range) and divide mkt cap during that time by estimated nº of users at that time. We can assume that any BTC balances held by users for an extended period is good evidence of those users being comfortable with holding that $ value in BTC (on average).
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It's a race. It was always a race. If we can reach critical mass before the crackdown we win and they'll have to adapt.
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Looks like they have a real bottleneck at their polish bank...
I'm also waiting for 2 SEPA withdrawals from over 3 weeks ago.
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...el tema no es si nos cae o bien o nos gusta un periodista en concreto. El objetivo es que aquellos que tienen un gran altavoz y puedan ayudar a que más gente conozca Bitcoin hayan oído hablar de Bitcoin, o mejor aún, lo hayan probado gastándose los centimillos que les regalemos.
No espero que @jordievole haga un programa de televisión sobre bitcoin... me conformo con que haga un tweet que llegue a sus 975.000 seguidores.
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Hombre, para que esto funcione debemos ser un número importante de personas quienes demos estas propinas. Si solo lo hace Flix, no creo que la idea tenga éxito.
Tampoco hace falta muchísima gente.. con que seamos 10 y cada uno dé 0.01 BTC... y si cada viernes escogemos a uno de la lista y le llegan 10 propinas (y 10 tweets), no creo que lo ignore....si fuesen 200 mejor, claro. Pero precisamente porque somos pocos hay que concentrar esfuerzos. Podríamos ir avanzando por la lista. Por ejemplo el próximo viernes todos a: 1. @jordievole ...y en las semanas siguientes: 2. @Suanzes 3. @cultrun 4. @pedroj_ramirez 5. @hermanntertsch 6. @pacomarhuenda 7. @julia_otero 8. @susannagriso 9. @radiocable 10. @antonlosada Insisto.. si no lo cobran sale gratis, pero es difícil que te mencionen 10 veces en twitter y no te enteres. Como mínimo les entrará curiosidad. |
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La amenaza de los bitcoins se eliminó el 17 de mayo cuando el Departamento Gestapo de Seguridad Interior confiscó las cuentas de Bitcoin. La excusa fue que Bitcoin no se había registrado según las leyes contra el lavado de dinero del Tesoro de EE.UU. ¡y nosotros sin enterarnos!  Desde luego no le han dedicado ni 5 minutos a comprobar las fuentes... |
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