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221  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: October 17, 2015, 02:02:05 PM

Rough estimate: half-year-long rally to -1, i.e. to about 1500$ per BTC.


No. -1 is e^-1 * 1826.21 = 672

Possible if there are positive outcomes after the Scaling Bitcoin workshop in coming December
No. Smiley 1826.21 is today's expected price. While we are talking about half-year later.

EDIT: i.e. 672 * e^(0.00445*(365/2))
P.S. I'd also like to thank you for your job. This is my favorite thread and I'm always in anticipation of fresh updates.

It will be lower than $1500 since the slope is dropping every day.

I will update more frequently when the price is moving
222  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: October 17, 2015, 02:00:08 PM
223  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: October 17, 2015, 01:57:53 PM
Date:    16-Oct-2015
VWAP:    261.01
x:    1917
a:    0.00438
b:    -0.89040
Rsq:    0.82640
The day's expected price:    1832.34
Actual price / expected price:   14.24%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.949
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   197.27
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11862.31
Predicted date for today's price:    28-Jul-2014
Days ahead:    -444.54
Daily price rank:    493
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00438380164234256++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.890399126164971+%29   
224  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / A mistake in bitcoin.org? (Satoshi's github account) on: October 10, 2015, 03:58:29 PM
In https://bitcoin.org/en/development , "Satoshi Nakamoto" is linked to the github account of saracen

However, https://github.com/saracen is an active github account.

Is there anything wrong?
225  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: October 04, 2015, 02:12:46 PM
Hey man, thanks for your work on this. I've checked this thread a gazillion times.

I was wondering whether the historic NAV's are plotted somewhere?

It's in the second post, and you can find links for data back to 2013 also in the second post
226  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: October 02, 2015, 05:43:25 PM
Update. Total share is increasing, but total bitcoin is decreasing. That means the amount of new investment is less than the management fee.
227  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: September 27, 2015, 05:26:26 PM

Rough estimate: half-year-long rally to -1, i.e. to about 1500$ per BTC.


No. -1 is e^-1 * 1826.21 = 672

Possible if there are positive outcomes after the Scaling Bitcoin workshop in coming December
228  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: September 26, 2015, 04:39:28 PM
It is a triple top at -1.75, now at $317
229  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: September 26, 2015, 04:37:33 PM

230  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly) on: September 26, 2015, 04:34:38 PM
Update

Date:    25-Sep-2015
VWAP:    235.19
x:    1896
a:    0.00445
b:    -0.93522
Rsq:    0.83148
The day's expected price:    1826.21
Actual price / expected price:   12.88%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -2.050
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   196.61
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11822.63
Predicted date for today's price:    21-Jun-2014
Days ahead:    -460.15
Daily price rank:    590
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00445422677024799++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.935216011303706+%29   
   
231  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Visionary and Genious on: September 20, 2015, 05:53:58 PM
Someone moved the coinbase reward from blocks 2800, 2816, 2884, 3182, 3194 today: https://www.blockseer.com/g/75j3281Osaeu

This person claims he's the owner of these coins, and he's not Satoshi: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3ln3sp/it_was_me/

Does your analysis still hold, given the new information?

That reddit user claimed he moved those coins hours after they had been moved. Also, someone asked him to sign a message to prove he controls those addresses, and he hasn't done it yet. I'll only believe it after he proves it by signing a message, or announcing his intentions to move specific coins in advance. I've become skeptical of any claims of ownership of vast amounts of coins, or ownership of very early coins because it's very rare anyone provides conclusive proof of their claims.

He signed the output address with 265BTC:

http://coinig.com/?adr=1HUidFPHZ7cJ6WYmR8nMPQCmmE3mbVKYjM&msg=It+was+me+20%2F9%2F2015&sig=IC8oSnQ%2BCNMhqDYu7hTQXb%2Bkvrbu%2Fr3EXjiLjLvFIsQuDlxUSqXWZj7TRiLcLnmT%2BErjgjOr7dVRC%2FGB47IKYk0%3D

He says Bitcoin-qt doesn't allow him to sign with the coinbase address

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3ln77n/coinbases_from_feb_3_2009_just_moved_for_the/cv7pyra
232  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Visionary and Genious on: September 20, 2015, 05:08:08 PM
Someone moved the coinbase reward from blocks 2800, 2816, 2884, 3182, 3194 today: https://www.blockseer.com/g/75j3281Osaeu

This person claims he's the owner of these coins, and he's not Satoshi: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3ln3sp/it_was_me/

Does your analysis still hold, given the new information?
233  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Big block support observer on: September 16, 2015, 05:59:31 PM
in that case you should deleet the whole iCEBREAKER fake posts  Roll Eyes

Some of his posts were on-topic and kept. Many were deleted.

I think this is enough for meta discussion

One of my on-topic posts (wherein I mocked your belief people would actually submit proof of stake signatures) was deleted.

Why is that?

It is the objective of this thread, and it is the most reliable method.

Meta discussion is off-topic. I'll delete any meta discussion in the following 48 hours
234  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Big block support observer on: September 16, 2015, 05:41:10 PM
in that case you should deleet the whole iCEBREAKER fake posts  Roll Eyes

Some of his posts were on-topic and kept. Many were deleted.

I think this is enough for meta discussion
235  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Big block support observer on: September 16, 2015, 05:24:44 PM
Final warning to people who want to debate here. I made this very clear in the OP: This thread is NOT for big block debate, including the discussion of pros and cons of different proposals and implementations.
236  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Locally verifiable unspent transaction output commitments on: September 16, 2015, 10:56:47 AM
I don't quite understand your approach but I have another approach for this problem. Not sure if they are effectively the same.

I believe it's mathematically correct, but not sure about its computational efficiency

For every block, there will be a Merkle sum tree for the number of spent UTXO and new UTXO. For example, if we have 4 txs:

Tx1 (coinbase): 0 spent UTXO, 2 new UTXO
Tx2: 1 spent UTXO, 4 new UTXO
Tx3: 5 spent UTXO, 1 new UTXO
Tx4: 6 spent UTXO, 8 new UTXO

sum_hash_1 = hash(tx1_hash|0|2)
sum_hash_2 = hash(tx2_hash|1|4)
sum_hash_3 = hash(tx3_hash|5|1)
sum_hash_4 = hash(tx4_hash|6|8)
sum_hash_5 = hash(hash_1|hash_2|1|6)
sum_hash_6 = hash(hash_3|hash_4|11|9)
root_merkle_sum_tree = hash(hash_5|hash_6|12|15)


UTXO is presented as (txid|txoutindex|scriptPubkey|value|minimum_height_to_spend)

(For normal tx, minimum_height_to_spend is the block height. For coinbase tx, it is block height + 100)

Two UTXO Merkle roots are calculated:
1. All UTXO sorted alphanumerically (root_all_utxo)
2. Spent UTXO in this block, sorted alphanumerically (root_spent_utxo)

Any one of the following proofs is sufficient to invalidate an illegal UTXO commitment, and an illegal UTXO commitment will necessarily produce at least one of the following proofs. (In other words, these conditions are collectively exhaustive for an illegal UTXO commitment)

---------------
Proof of wrong UTXO order: Merkle path of 2 misplaced UTXO records.

---------------
Proof of incorrect # of UTXO in root_all_utxo: # of UTXO in the last block + # of new UTXO - # of spent UTXO != # of UTXO in this block

---------------
Proof of incorrect # of UTXO in root_spent_utxo: # of UTXO in root_spent_utxo != record in root_merkle_sum_tree

---------------
Spending of a UTXO not documented in root_spent_utxo:
  • A transaction with its Merkle path to the root_merkle_sum_tree
  • Merkle path of the 2 adjacent UTXOs in the root_spent_utxo, proving the lack of record

---------------
New UTXO not documented in root_all_utxo:
  • A transaction with its Merkle path to the root_merkle_sum_tree
  • Merkle path of the 2 adjacent UTXOs in the root_all_utxo, proving the lack of record

---------------
Proof of illegal deletion of an existing UTXO in root_all_utxo:
  • Merkle path of the deleted UTXO in last block
  • Merkle path of the 2 adjacent UTXOs in the root_all_utxo of this block, proving the UTXO is deleted
  • Merkle path of the 2 adjacent UTXOs in the root_spent_utxo of this block, proving the lack of spending record of this UTXO


Explanation:

By 1, we show that a UTXO exists in the last block
By 2, we show that the UTXO is removed in this block
By 3, we show that the removal of this UTXO is not documented in root_spent_utxo

If the removal is indeed documented in root_spent_utxo, some other spent UTXO must not be documented, given that the number of UTXO in root_spent_utxo matches the record in root_merkle_sum_tree. In that case, we could just prove with "Removal of UTXO not documented in root_spent_utxo"

---------------
Proof of illegal addition of UTXO in root_all_utxo / Spent UTXO not removed from root_all_utxo:

This could be indirectly proved by the proofs mentioned. There will be either too many UTXO in root_all_utxo, or some existing UTXOs got illegally deleted, or some new UTXOs are not documented
237  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Who has been affected by stress test already? on: September 13, 2015, 09:27:41 AM
Do you have any problem with reading comprehension?
OP's website is just a specialized block explorer.
It publishes nothing to the blockchain
What is the "WRITE" tab on this site for?
Who is the spammer? The person who increases the number of utxo, or the person who decrease them?

Got it. Sorry about it. It's really bad.
238  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Who has been affected by stress test already? on: September 12, 2015, 08:01:41 PM
I did not start this
Yes, but you can improve this by storing data not in addresses.
Just use p2sh scripts. This will not increase UTXO set.


Do you have any problem with reading comprehension? OP's website is just a specialized block explorer. It publishes nothing to the blockchain
239  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 12, 2015, 12:18:10 PM

I still believe that bitcon's price will go to zero in a few years; but almost certainly not by that route...

Would you put money where your mouth is?
240  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Solution for the Big Size of the Blockchain. on: September 06, 2015, 05:36:56 PM
You have some fundamental misunderstanding of the system.

I advice you to watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3hJsFpPmXs and read this: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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