No big move.update later
What normalizing factor did you use? The raw numbers for last week and this were: 137,347 (without the NF) 137,506 It might be helpful to include the raw numbers on the main chart or at least include the NF used. P.s. Don't have 12/1, sorry. The normalizing factor is based on the latest actual holding figure of 31 Oct: NF = 106840 / (100000*36.69/33.59) = 0.9781 |
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Updated. I missed the data point of 1 Dec. Does anyone have it?
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yesterday bought 2100+ (11/25/2014)
today bought 4500+ (11/26/2014)
two day together, another ~ $2.5 M was added.
updated. This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November |
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2132XBT bought yesterday. I have a feeling that this could be the last batch of Tuesday buying
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Inputs that provide conflicting signatures can be blacklisted using an approach analogous to colored coins.
So a previous owner of a coin will always have the power to burn the coin, no matter where and when it is sent. If the time is long enough even a single satoshi may taint a huge amount of coins. He may profit through a leveraged short before the attack. |
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In the following two weeks difficulty is re-targeted to zero. You have 3 mistakes here: 1. The difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks, not every 2 weeks. It may sound the same but they are definitely completely different concepts. 2. Difficulty will never adjust by more than 4x, for both upward and downward 3. The difficulty will never go below 1 |
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Doesn't matter when the next rally will be, 2015, 2017 or 2020, it's almost a certainty there will be one.
I think it matters. The longer it takes, the higher the new ATH. |
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6348XBT was bought with $2.42M
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-10XBT yesterday. So the 6847XBT on 11 Nov was real
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 It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011. Thanks for the update. It looks so similar to last time, when it was double bottom. https://i.imgur.com/n2tEMYf.pngIt does. If we bounce with the same long term ferocity as in 2011, BTC might reach $13,000 in 12 mo by just matching the trend. A bubble could make it 50K (~1.34 on the graph in 12mo) or 60K (~1.5 on the graph in 12mo), but I don't expect a bubble in 2015, maybe in 2016. If we will go just to -0.75 of a trend in 12 mo (matching 2012), then it will be at $6200 in Nov 2015 with a possible bubble in 2016. In other words, IF you believe that we finally bouncing in a long term trend, then this IS the time to make money. The alternative scenario is that: a. we are OFF the trend permanently or b. we will reach a despair hour at -2.25 of the trend. I have done some simulation. If it takes 12 to reach -0.75, that would be around 0.45% growth per day. The price will be $1930 at the end of Nov 2015, when it reaches -0.75. It is not $6200 because the prolonged deviation from the trend will pull the expected price down. |
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It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011. Thanks for the update. It looks so similar to last time, when it was double bottom. https://i.imgur.com/n2tEMYf.pngIt does. If we bounce with the same long term ferocity as in 2011, BTC might reach $13,000 in 12 mo by just matching the trend. A bubble could make it 50K (~1.34 on the graph in 12mo) or 60K (~1.5 on the graph in 12mo), but I don't expect a bubble in 2015, maybe in 2016. If we will go just to -0.75 of a trend in 12 mo (matching 2012), then it will be at $6200 in Nov 2015 with a possible bubble in 2016. In other words, IF you believe that we finally bouncing in a long term trend, then this IS the time to make money. The alternative scenario is that: a. we are OFF the trend permanently or b. we will reach a despair hour at -2.25 of the trend. Agreed. And I think the ferocity (=amplitude of swings) will decrease over time. Bitcoin matures, less uncertainty, wild guesses getting replaced with educated guesses... jumped to -1.26 If it could go above -1.2, the maximum value made on 14 Oct, the double bottom at -1.47 may be confirmed. There were only 2 double bottom of this kind in the history: the first one in Oct-Nov 2011, the second one in Jun to Oct 2013. Both were preceded by a rally. To break -1.2, the daily VWAP has to be at least $441. |
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If the data is accurate, 6847 Bitcoin was bought yesterday
(There was a mistake in my previous update)
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https://i.imgur.com/NSooYC5.pngIt's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011. Interesting. Do you dynamically adjust the formula? When I link to the latest, trend prediction is $1439, but when I connect to several days earlier link, then it is $1654. In any case it is around -1.50, but I am curious why two different links result in a variable outcome (1439 vs 1654). The formula is updated with all the available data at the time. Since the real price is lower then the expected price, the growth in expected price is slowing down so you see the difference. But the expected price is still growing by about $3/day |
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It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011. |
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It is noted that the Rsq, peaked at 0.90377, is decreasing since 17 Sept. It suggests that the price now is so low that it substantially deviates from the trend line.
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so did we get confirmation that the 7k buy was legit?
So far, the 7k buy is just the result of jl2012's calculations, but at least it wasn't reversed a few days later like before, so it's more likely it is not a mistake. Confirmation will come if and when the fund officially lists its total BTC holding, which they seem to do about monthly, I think. Someone correct me please if I'm wrong about that. They have just updated the actual holding on 1 Nov. The last time they did so was in April, and monthly before that. So it's difficult to predict when will they update again. Actual I thought they would never update again. It was pointed out that on the same day of the "7k buy" SMBIT changed the price source for the NAV. It shouldn't have such effect but I can't rule out the possibility without the next actual holding figure. Anyway, all data shown in this thread were publicly available. The formulas I use are also available. If there were any errors, it must be the fault of SMBIT as I always double check when there is a big movement. I never presented this as a trading guide and if someone gets burnt with the faulty data from SMBIT, blame them. I'll certainly keep updating this. I'm not updating as frequent as before because the lack of meaningful movement. |
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