BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[birr]

I doubt that any one can really call a bear market (in this bad boy) until several months after we have entered into it.

You do a lot of typing, I notice.
An analyst did predict an extended 2013-2015 bear market and made his statement during the topping of bitcoin's exchange rate in late 2013.
I'm pretty sure you know who I'm talking about.

[JayJuanGee]

I doubt that any one can really call a bear market (in this bad boy) until several months after we have entered into it.

You do a lot of typing, I notice.
An analyst did predict an extended 2013-2015 bear market and made his statement during the topping of bitcoin's exchange rate in late 2013.
I'm pretty sure you know who I'm talking about.

No.

Is there some sort of sorcerer out there?  someone who actually knows the future?  I doubt it.  We have a system of probabilities, and merely because some one happens to be correct does not mean that they actually knew the future, because the future had not happened yet.  Now in retrospect, we can describe what happened.

[birr]

Yes, there is a sorcerer out there.  Several days ago, you posted on a thread of which he was the OP.

[Hope_Trader]

I doubt that any one can really call a bear market (in this bad boy) until several months after we have entered into it.

You do a lot of typing, I notice.
An analyst did predict an extended 2013-2015 bear market and made his statement during the topping of bitcoin's exchange rate in late 2013.
I'm pretty sure you know who I'm talking about.

No.

Is there some sort of sorcerer out there?  someone who actually knows the future?  I doubt it.  We have a system of probabilities, and merely because some one happens to be correct does not mean that they actually knew the future, because the future had not happened yet.  Now in retrospect, we can describe what happened.

that's very interesting.

I wonder how many other things out there we rely on that use a system of probabilities?

Such as - medicine, rocket science, physics, sociology, surgery risk factors, traffic control perhaps, even driving your car with the expectation you won't crash this time? Studying for a degree to become a lawyer or a doctor doesn't mean you will actually get a job, but you will invest in it anyways... shitloads of time and money. The general direction can be fairly certain once you start studying. There is no guarantee of the exact nature of your qualification or job that you get at the end of it, or whether you even survive to pass it, but it's highly probable.

I think prediction in markets, in some scenarios, can be made with some degree of certainty and in other with a higher degree. Exact predictions no, but general predictions yes for sure. Take heart surgery... there is no guarantee that the patient will live through it, or be able to run a marathon afterwards or what date they will die. But there is a high degree of certainty that they will live longer and benefit from it somehow, the reasoning for the surgery is that the general direction from it afterwards would be up. The precise nature of that life extension can be fairly vague.

Take BTC, I think at this point we are all fairly certain, that even if it does go down, it's going up again. No new lows and then breaking from the 300 range were the first signals, breaking 1200 was the next. Many others followed. Many people before predicted with a high degree of certainty that BTC was going up, they weren't necessarily the lucky ones, they were correct because they understood BTC and previous market movements and weighed it up to find the most probable outcome. Predicting something that comes true doesn't make you lucky by default. The exactness of it perhaps yes. Entering a bear market after a long bull run is a fairly vague statement to make. "We are really high now, now it's time to go down for a while"... Everything else can be vague, but the general prediction of direction can be spot on. An experienced Sorcerer doesn't have to use magic to identify a coming bear market, it's just an inevitability after a certain point. If they do it many times, they aren't a sorcerer really, they are just very good and experienced at finding probable outcomes with a high degree of certainty. High enough that they are actually certain.

No one knows the future for pretty much anything at all. Most people on this forum understand black swans... So yeah, even saying the sun will rise tmrw, by your definition, would make me a sorcerer. I'm gonna go ahead and say it though, maybe I'll be lucky and be correct....

I can also say, I believe it's absolutely certain that what goes up comes down and vice versa. I'm not predicting the future, I'm stating a truth. Everything in our universe is made of vibrating wave forms of some sort. So in markets, there are some fundamental truths that we base our probable predictions around which may in fact in some way give us more certainty than other fields.

[DieJohnny]

2018 is a complete universe away from 2013. In 2018 we will enter the year with probably 50 coins near or above 1 billion in market cap. 50!
It was only mid 2016 that we had 2!

There are only two paths forward for bitcoin.

1) Bitcoin maintains its dominance as the reserve currency for crypto and continues to grow like a beating drum, Bitcoin has to hit $250k a coin and become so large that nothing will touch it, so far 300 billion seems like chump change when we have alts zooming to a billion at every turn

2) Bitcoin is replaced and is relegated to the footnotes of history.

If there is a bitcoin bear market, do any of you think there will be an overall crypto bear market??? NO effing way. If bitcoin tanks for six months, it will be all over. Bitcoin will not retake #1 if it is passed in market cap by a decentralized incumbent. 

[Denker]

2018 is a complete universe away from 2013. In 2018 we will enter the year with probably 50 coins near or above 1 billion in market cap. 50!
It was only mid 2016 that we had 2!

There are only two paths forward for bitcoin.

1) Bitcoin maintains its dominance as the reserve currency for crypto and continues to grow like a beating drum, Bitcoin has to hit $250k a coin and become so large that nothing will touch it, so far 300 billion seems like chump change when we have alts zooming to a billion at every turn

2) Bitcoin is replaced and is relegated to the footnotes of history.

If there is a bitcoin bear market, do any of you think there will be an overall crypto bear market??? NO effing way. If bitcoin tanks for six months, it will be all over. Bitcoin will not retake #1 if it is passed in market cap by a decentralized incumbent.  

Or alts will mostly disappear cause they are mostly useless. Then Bitcoin is in no rush.
Bitcoin getting replaced by some other coin is very very unlikely. It's network effects are way too strong and all alts are centralized in one way or the other.
Lets keep some reality here please!
In terms of regulations this may slower Bitcoins further success for some time, but this won't stop it.
Where are countries who try to regulate the sh** out of Bitcoin to harm it, there will countries who will fully embrace it!
Simple is that!

[jl2012]

Date:   22-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.622
VWAP:   13441.46
x:   2,715
a:   0.003316
b:   -0.118770
Rsq:   0.837325
Expected price:   7219.87
Actual price / expected price:   186.17%
BETI ATL price:   777.31
BETI ATH price:   46740.43
Expected date:   27-Jun-2018
# of days ahead:   187.42
Daily VWAP rank:   16
Next expected price:   7243.85
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00331615547164061++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.118770392977885+)
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00331615547164061++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.118770392977885+)
   
   
   
0.5   11903.55
1.0   19625.63
1.5   32357.20
2.0   53348.00
2.5   87955.98

[jl2012]

[btcone111]

Looking at all previous spikes which went above 0.5, when they came down, they always at least touched 0....
I wonder if that applies to this time round...

[Wekkel]

Looking at all previous spikes which went above 0.5, when they came down, they always at least touched 0....
I wonder if that applies to this time round...

In that case, you’ll know when to buy more  

[Biodom]

Looking at all previous spikes which went above 0.5, when they came down, they always at least touched 0....
I wonder if that applies to this time round...

Anything can happen, but what I don't get is how two people can look at the same drawn chart and see two opposite things.
This is what i see:

In 2011, i see a sharp downturn from about 1.28 to 0.8, then upwards to eventually largest peak at around 1.87.
So, why a relatively small wiggle (so far) suggests to you that it has to go all the way to zero?

It can go to BETI at zero, which would be around 7300, but i don't see 100% probability of this in the chart.
My favorite scenario would be something rhyming with the 2011 chart:

Down to 8-8.5K, up to 12-13K, down again to 9.5-10K, then upwards to the moon (at or above 1.87, which likely to be 60-70K at that point).
This scenario would suggest that in interim both bulls and bears would be exhausted by the rapid turns.

[jl2012]

I don't think BETI pattern in 2011 is particularly useful since it was the beginning of the chart and was not very stable.

Looking at all previous spikes which went above 0.5, when they came down, they always at least touched 0....
I wonder if that applies to this time round...

Anything can happen, but what I don't get is how two people can look at the same drawn chart and see two opposite things.
This is what i see:

In 2011, i see a sharp downturn from about 1.28 to 0.8, then upwards to eventually largest peak at around 1.87.
So, why a relatively small wiggle (so far) suggests to you that it has to go all the way to zero?

It can go to BETI at zero, which would be around 7300, but i don't see 100% probability of this in the chart.
My favorite scenario would be something rhyming with the 2011 chart:

Down to 8-8.5K, up to 12-13K, down again to 9.5-10K, then upwards to the moon (at or above 1.87, which likely to be 60-70K at that point).
This scenario would suggest that in interim both bulls and bears would be exhausted by the rapid turns.

[jl2012]

Date:   23-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.712
VWAP:   14785.39
x:   2,716
a:   0.003317
b:   -0.119297
Rsq:   0.837503
Expected price:   7251.46
Actual price / expected price:   203.90%
BETI ATL price:   780.71
BETI ATH price:   46944.96
Expected date:   25-Jul-2018
# of days ahead:   214.80
Daily VWAP rank:   14
Next expected price:   7275.55
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00331673595762062++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.119296861590734+)
   
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00331673595762062++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.119296861590734+)
   
   
-1.00   2667.66
-0.75   3425.35
-0.50   4398.23
-0.25   5647.44
0.00   7251.46
0.25   9311.06
0.50   11955.64
0.75   15351.34
1.00   19711.51
1.25   25310.08
1.50   32498.79
1.75   41729.27
2.00   53581.44
2.25   68799.93
2.50   88340.86

[Hope_Trader]

My opinion and best guess is some further downside tests in which the true believers will scoop up more coins, and medium term range such as after April 2013. A lot about this feels and looks similar so far... A sustained bear market doesn't seem appropriate, nor does blasting through to new highs immediately, that's just kind of... the sort of sentiment you would expect to see at a top shaped like this. We fell out of one logarithmic shape on the chart, and to compensate we make an even more insane one? I know this is crypto but... bitcoin has been behaving a bit more maturely this year overall IMO.

Also observing the tap of around 1.0 of the BETI, not as high as previous big runs. If this is a medium term high, does this start to signify a dampening of volatility over time?

[btcone111]

My opinion and best guess is some further downside tests in which the true believers will scoop up more coins, and medium term range such as after April 2013. A lot about this feels and looks similar so far... A sustained bear market doesn't seem appropriate, nor does blasting through to new highs immediately, that's just kind of... the sort of sentiment you would expect to see at a top shaped like this. We fell out of one logarithmic shape on the chart, and to compensate we make an even more insane one? I know this is crypto but... bitcoin has been behaving a bit more maturely this year overall IMO.

Also observing the tap of around 1.0 of the BETI, not as high as previous big runs. If this is a medium term high, does this start to signify a dampening of volatility over time?

Too soon to conclude? By looking at the graph, the reversion rate of bitcoin is quite low. Almost seems like a 50/50 random walk over monthly horizon. Only the yearly graph gives a bit evidence to support its mean reverting property.

[jl2012]

Date:   25-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.646
VWAP:   13951.90
x:   2,718
a:   0.003318
b:   -0.120231
Rsq:   0.837857
Expected price:   7313.34
Actual price / expected price:   190.77%
BETI ATL price:   787.37
BETI ATH price:   47345.58
Expected date:   7-Jul-2018
# of days ahead:   194.68
Daily VWAP rank:   17
Next expected price:   7337.65
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00331776554231735++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.120231157798937+)
   
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00331776554231735++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.120231157798937+)
   
   
-1.00   2690.43
-0.75   3454.58
-0.50   4435.77
-0.25   5695.64
0.00   7313.34
0.25   9390.52
0.50   12057.66
0.75   15482.34
1.00   19879.72
1.25   25526.07
1.50   32776.12
1.75   42085.38
2.00   54038.69
2.25   69387.05
2.50   89094.74

[jl2012]

[vit05]

Expected price:   7313.34

I am a little concern about that. I do not think that today's price is the best reflection of what it should be the natural course of Bitcoin. There is a lot of confusion about what we could do with Bitcoin and what it will be useful. But we could see he going to challenge ATH again and again before have a major correction that put some people out of the game.

[DieJohnny]

2018 is a complete universe away from 2013. In 2018 we will enter the year with probably 50 coins near or above 1 billion in market cap. 50!
It was only mid 2016 that we had 2!

There are only two paths forward for bitcoin.

1) Bitcoin maintains its dominance as the reserve currency for crypto and continues to grow like a beating drum, Bitcoin has to hit $250k a coin and become so large that nothing will touch it, so far 300 billion seems like chump change when we have alts zooming to a billion at every turn

2) Bitcoin is replaced and is relegated to the footnotes of history.

If there is a bitcoin bear market, do any of you think there will be an overall crypto bear market??? NO effing way. If bitcoin tanks for six months, it will be all over. Bitcoin will not retake #1 if it is passed in market cap by a decentralized incumbent.  

Or alts will mostly disappear cause they are mostly useless. Then Bitcoin is in no rush.
Bitcoin getting replaced by some other coin is very very unlikely. It's network effects are way too strong and all alts are centralized in one way or the other.
Lets keep some reality here please!
In terms of regulations this may slower Bitcoins further success for some time, but this won't stop it.
Where are countries who try to regulate the sh** out of Bitcoin to harm it, there will countries who will fully embrace it!
Simple is that!

There are at least 10 other Alts that are trying to do what Satoshi originally envisioned in some variant or another. If Bitcoin were to stumble, any of them could take on the throne. Removing Bitcoin from possibilities I think you would see Ripple take over as #1, followed by Monero. Then all others would follow.

I only say ripple because most people don't care about decentralization or autonomy from governments. So most people will be fine owning Ripple and will fail to even understand why it is not really in the same game as bitcoin. Anon, decentralized, mineable coins however will always have a top dog. Right now it is Bitcoin, but it could just as easily be Dash, Monero, Verge, ZCash, ZCoin, Nav, et cetera.

[mmortal03]

2018 is a complete universe away from 2013. In 2018 we will enter the year with probably 50 coins near or above 1 billion in market cap. 50!
It was only mid 2016 that we had 2!

There are only two paths forward for bitcoin.

1) Bitcoin maintains its dominance as the reserve currency for crypto and continues to grow like a beating drum, Bitcoin has to hit $250k a coin and become so large that nothing will touch it, so far 300 billion seems like chump change when we have alts zooming to a billion at every turn

2) Bitcoin is replaced and is relegated to the footnotes of history.

If there is a bitcoin bear market, do any of you think there will be an overall crypto bear market??? NO effing way. If bitcoin tanks for six months, it will be all over. Bitcoin will not retake #1 if it is passed in market cap by a decentralized incumbent.  

Or alts will mostly disappear cause they are mostly useless. Then Bitcoin is in no rush.
Bitcoin getting replaced by some other coin is very very unlikely. It's network effects are way too strong and all alts are centralized in one way or the other.
Lets keep some reality here please!
In terms of regulations this may slower Bitcoins further success for some time, but this won't stop it.
Where are countries who try to regulate the sh** out of Bitcoin to harm it, there will countries who will fully embrace it!
Simple is that!

There are at least 10 other Alts that are trying to do what Satoshi originally envisioned in some variant or another. If Bitcoin were to stumble, any of them could take on the throne. Removing Bitcoin from possibilities I think you would see Ripple take over as #1, followed by Monero. Then all others would follow.

I only say ripple because most people don't care about decentralization or autonomy from governments. So most people will be fine owning Ripple and will fail to even understand why it is not really in the same game as bitcoin. Anon, decentralized, mineable coins however will always have a top dog. Right now it is Bitcoin, but it could just as easily be Dash, Monero, Verge, ZCash, ZCoin, Nav, et cetera.

Yeah, and most people also don't want a volatile currency. So, why Ripple, instead of just PayPal or Venmo? I wrote something about this earlier this year: https://mmortal03.wordpress.com/2017/05/27/ripple-is-better-than-bitcoin-and-the-banks/