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441  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Math and Gambling on: November 17, 2023, 03:51:34 PM
Do you agree that it's fascinating? How math changes gambling from a game of chance to a game of strategy is shown below. Your admiration for Ferguson and Simons' work is well-founded. These people's stories do show how important math is in gambling. Although, it's important to remember that these are rare instances. Like Ferguson and Simons, thousands of people bet without winning. Their mathematics skill is not common, it's very rare. Surprisingly, the lesson isn't really about gambling. Utilizing specific skills in surprising ways is what it's all about.

Math only helps you to determine your winning chance rate but that doesn't mean it will secure profit for you just because you knew your percentage of winning except for a 100% win rate in poker. But everything is still a gamble no matter how high your winning probability. Other skills still contributes a lot of factor on success because it can increase your chance of winning aside from the computed probability since other player mind is your enemy here.

Quote
it's not a surefire way to win the lottery.
We are talking about poker game here

Quote
What matters more is how you artistically and strategically use what you know. How about that school isn't important thing? You learn more from what you do and how you do it than from where you go

Yeah, This is what they call the execution. A good execution can beat winning hand by tricking that he has the better hand.
442  Economy / Gambling / Re: Duelbits.com | Casino & Sportsbook | VIP | Instant withdrawals!|ARGENTINA & AVFC on: November 17, 2023, 02:12:27 PM
While it is a nice win, it is not a massive multiplier as you say. It might be your favorite slot but it is on my blacklist lol, I had one time 40-45 dead spins on this slot and while that might be pretty common, it was the first time it happened to me (most of the time, I play less volatile slots also and more play the in-house games).
I also often get 40-45 dead spins, but because it was the first slot I played when I first got to know slot games, it is quite difficult not to play that slot again.
Talking about dead spins, two days ago I also experienced something that was not much different when playing on one of the slots from Play N'Go provider Moon Princess, 50 more spins without any good results, but decided to stop before curiosity arose which would usually make I made a deposit again, because I am currently trying to reduce my gambling activities especially slot games which are always tempting and now only tend to sports betting.

I notice too how play'n go games become dry these days. You can't experience long dead spin before without hitting small to medium size win but now they change the hit ratio since all their games becomes low hit ratio despite their stats doesn't change on the slot games info. Their bonus game too is very hard hard and gives very low payout despite increase on difficulty.

They are now same with pragmatic in terms hit ratio unlike before that this 2 games is the best compared to other slot provider that offers too volatile slot games. Try one touch slot, I have a very good experience on their games recently especially the greek theme slot.
443  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is not a get rich quick scheme. on: November 17, 2023, 02:04:20 PM
Indeed, Bitcoin is not a ge rich quick scheme but unfortunately that's what how it has been introduced to the outsiders I mean to those people who are not aware of Bitcoin. I have seen my colleagues discussing about investing in Bitcoin stating they will get rich by doing it but they have no idea about concept of Bitcoin and why it will make them rich, I feel Altcoin is a get rich quick or lose it allsor of scheme wherein Bitcoin is like gold with higher returns and a real life P2P transfer medium.

We cannot blame anyone here since there are no centralized stakeholders who are responsible to spread awareness. But, eventually once people become wise they will realise what is Bitcoin.

If we consider how stock market price move and bank financial instrument offer, Bitcoin is indeed quick scheme since you can double or triple your investment with just a short period of time which you can attain by investing on traditional investment. Bitcoin volatility is one of its pros and cons at same time since it's one of the main reason why we are being notice.

This people thinking about quick rich will soon do research to themselves once they are already invested. That's the time they will change their perspective so I don't see any problem for people think that Bitcoin is a quick rich scheme as long as they will invest and later do their own research about the full benefits of Bitcoin aside from it's volatility.
444  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Start with the little you have, you don't need millions of dollars to own BTC. on: November 17, 2023, 10:42:35 AM
the only excuse an intending investor will tender that could make him or her not to invest in bitcoin, could just be income less than 10$ and more responsibilities, which I know that, this is not possible with people from the developed world, this excuses are mostly found in people who doesn't have much interest initially, the trust DCA is the best strategy to go gradually, this has helped many to achieve a lot in this industry.

Not all people has the guts to invest on volatile assets especially if they already have the job that secure their life financially. Only people that accepts volatility and live with are those who can afford investing on this kind asset since they knew what’s the possible consequence.

We can’t blame those who can’t invest on Bitcoin despite they are financially capable because that’s their choice of financial independence by relying only to their salary from work. We can’t convert the rest of non-Bitcoin investors to invest that’s why we are lucky to be here and enjoy the benefits of Bitcoin because we are not afraid on volatility.
445  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Math and Gambling on: November 17, 2023, 10:36:59 AM
School is not important as 96% of what you learn won't be used in the real world to make money, but this 4% left is making a lot of people rich, math and gambling seems to go with each other, what do you guys think? Am I wrong or right?

This is only applicable on games like Poker, Blackjack(Standard Deck and Sports book which the result can calculated through probability which you can use to your advantage. Most of the guy that you mention excel on poker which means they are relying on dominating other people instead of the house.

But the regular gambling games offer by the casino is based on pure luck which this skills in math is not an advantage. Also even skill based game like poker, there’s no guarantee for profit even if you are good on math because there’s always someone that is much better to you.
446  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What do you bet on when your league is in break? on: November 17, 2023, 05:38:57 AM
So what's your experience with this. When your league is in break, do you tend to try to follow other leagues that you're familiar with, or will you gamble on anything really? I'm interested to hear what other people have to say in this matter.

I’m from SEA. Basketball and Esports are the most popular here in terms betting since this  is what commonly being played nationwide by almost everyone here. I usually bet on NBA and Dota2/CS:GO but not to the point that I bet on every single game.

But there’s a lot of gambler here that is betting multiple times in daily basis as hobby. My fellow countrymen is very industrious on work but always spend a lot on gambling that’s why sports betting is very popular here the first time it was introduced online.
447  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will it Hold? BTC Targets $40,000 on: November 16, 2023, 05:39:49 PM
The price of bitcoin will definitely cross 40k, because the price of bitcoin is increasing at a very fast pace. Bitcoin is only 3k away from 40k which is not unusual, it will be soon. Because the Bitcoin bull market has started. If you have money to invest now, don't delay, invest now. Because its value doesn't seem to drop that much again. An investment you make now, You will get very much more back later.

How the fish you know that Bull season is started? It’s just a price correction according to me. During bull season, along with Bitcoins, all the coins go up. So this is just a price adjustment due to the demand made to accumulate the coin. But this doesn’t mean that you won’t buy the coins. If you want to really make profit,then buy the coin in this price segment also. New year will be big for the coins. So just start accumulating the coins and hold it.

Considering how Bitcoin recover from 15K to 38K, many people will really assume that Bullrun already started since that is x2 growth already which is enough to consider a bull run due to the volume involved to back up this rally. This ain’t a correction from the last bull run because a cycle end when the price dip more than 50% from the ATH.

It’s safe to assume that we are really on bull run since everyone is already buying and most of the coin’s already grow atleast x2 from the previous bottom.
448  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Difference between crypto gamblers - regular gamblers on: November 16, 2023, 05:32:53 PM
Is there actually any difference between being a regular gambler and a crypto gambler, cant any crypto gambler be a regular gambler or a regular gambler be a crypto gambler, we can decided to make the difference or not base on the way we are having the understanding or how we want to channel the discussion, what i will advise is for every regular crypto gamblers should know what they are doing, they should take cryptocurrency or gambling all for granted, everything we do with both comes with an opportunity and they must utilize the for their own benefits.

He is pointing out the difference between the preference of a gambler that seek for privacy when they use crypto casino in contrary to the regular gambler that doesn’t care about KYC which I totally agree since most of us here doesn’t want to do KYC despite most of the centralized casino doesn’t remove KYC requirements in their ToS.

The point here is not about the use of crypto in gambling but rather how a crypto gamblers seek for privacy when gambling.
449  Economy / Gambling / Re: Duelbits.com | Casino & Sportsbook | VIP | Instant withdrawals!|ARGENTINA & AVFC on: November 16, 2023, 03:55:30 PM
Seems that you guys are spoiled if we talk about gambling Cheesy If a x158 multiplier does not impress you, it is decent. Come on then, show us your best result. But be serious, as getting x1000 multiplier with 1sat bet does not counts Cheesy As I dont play slots much, and Crash probably is the only game where I could have gotten huge multipliers, then perhaps x4 with 5 bucks bet is my record Cheesy you can start laughing at 3-2-1...

For those who play slot most of the time like me, 158x is just small multiplier and I'm pretty sure players like me are not impressed much with such a multiplier because I play slot with the minimum bet only ($0.1-0.2). It means that 158x on slot will give me like $15-30+ only. 158x will be decent if the base bet is at least $5 Smiley like the one shared above, the base bet is $135. Without a doubt it is a big win although we do not know how much have been lost before hitting it and this player must be a whale who have huge bankroll to play slot with such a huge base bet.

This is the risk they are willing to take but they probably aiming on winning the contest too of pragmatic and the tournament of Duelbits that’s why they are cool on using big bet base bet amount on a single spin.

I only see this kind of huge bet on a streamer which we all know that most of them use fake bankroll from the casino itself. It’s either this whale is real deep pocket that aims to compete on tournament at the same time or a streamer in disguise.
450  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The Latest Game in my Country: Bottle Flip on: November 16, 2023, 03:51:17 PM
This is also popular game here in my country but I haven't seen people using real money to bet but what works here is that they put foods on the table and if the bottle stands still you are allowed to eat. Flipping bottle that bets with real money is for me quiet fun and it looks like cara y cruz.

Agreed, I only saw this game play by influencers and on some party event but never saw one with bet although everything can be use as gambling if it’s involved luck and skills at the same time.

Track field is now common gambling games here in my area which people bet on a runner that run on the street with a given time. I will not be surprised if some country use this game for gambling purposes since my country use other odd games just to gamble.
451  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling Casinos with Online and Offline version, Are they the same? on: November 15, 2023, 04:01:46 PM
I believe you are pertaining to Betking.com which is the one popular on Nigeria while the Betking.io is already closed online casino that is once popular in the popular but shutdown due to failure on managing bankroll from their investors.

They are different casino.

Regarding 1xbet and the one in your local, I’m not sure the background but some local version of the same brand sometimes have different owner/management. This is the reason why the experience seems different while they have similar brand.
452  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How discipline are you in managing your bankroll? on: November 15, 2023, 03:51:07 PM
Could you please share some of your honest experiences here and how you became a disciplined gambler, particularly in managing your bankroll? What factors do you consider to be satisfied and to stick with the game plan all the time?

I can relate to what you experienced especially the part when you are longing for a more action pack gambling experience just because you are not winning decent amount of money. The problem on this is your total bankroll is not suitable to the type of gambling experience you are looking for.

It’s like you want a 50$ profit on single bet while your bankroll is just a 100$ or less. The best way to deal with this is try to learn on adjusting your profit expectations based on your bankroll so that you will not overextend your bets out of your bankroll range. I control this problem by not playing when I really urge on gambling and play while I’m cool and not thinking of winning too much.
453  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2023 NBA Season on: November 15, 2023, 01:14:42 PM
So ...Clippers 6 defeats in a row ? Sad didn't Harden said out loud that "he is the system?" ...well ? where is this system he is talking about ? because so far I can't see anything.

He is the fuckin problem! Yes he contribute sometimes on points but after that he is useless on defense. Offense will not gonna win the game alone so his fuckin system is a literal disaster.

Clippers is good team before because they have good balance offense and defense while inserting Harden crumble their defense while their offense is just the same since only one person can shoot the ball one at a time so Kawhi or PG can do what he is doing with or without him while their defense becomes minus 1 with Harden.
454  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: J.P. Morgan Thinks the Big Crypto Rally Is Overdone on: November 15, 2023, 01:10:51 PM
How can they be so bad at their profession? I don't have a finance degree and I was able to call the $26k to $40k to $30k like two months before it all happened.

What do you all think about this?

Their analyst is doing what’s their company wants. They are thinking using their balls instead of their brain when it comes to Bitcoin. Their company probably missed out the dip or just recently take profit that’s why they resort to this kind of shitty prediction just to fuel FUD in times of correction.

I bet that they are spouting now about Bitcoin target price is 1M if they are holding Bitcoin right now.

Quoting what my girl Taylor Swift said:
Quote
And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate
Baby, I'm just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake
I shake it off, I shake it off (ooh-ooh-ooh)

Let’s just shake them off! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
455  Local / Pilipinas / Re: Bullrun Strategy Discussion on: November 14, 2023, 04:26:06 PM
Hindi ko talaga trip magsell ngayon or take profit sa stablecoin since sobrang bullish ng market at walang kahit anong sign ng possible reversal fundamental analysis speaking. Ginagawa ko now ay pure Staking lang ako para hindi ako maakit na magsell sa premature price since sobrang layo pa ng price sa ATH.

Stick pa dn ako sa strategy ko na every 10K price growth ako magsesell ng konti2 para masecure ko yung profit and at the same time hindi ma fomo. Bihira lang natin maexperience yung ganitong bullrun kaya hindi ko ito papalampasin para sa small profit
456  Economy / Services / Re: 🚧[CFNP] [banned mixer] | Bitcoin Mixer | Signature Campaign ~ Up to $130/week on: November 13, 2023, 02:03:29 AM
WEEK 44 Spreadsheet is now ready.
$30 weekly bonus was given to bayu7adi, Dr.Bitcoin_Strange & Litzki1990
Payments will be processed by the Coinomize team shortly.
Thank you @julerz12 for an amazing Week 44.
This time I missed out on the bonus.
All members are getting excited.

I made a T-shirt design for Coinomize, maybe there are some suggestions for other designs.
If everyone agrees, in the next few days I will print it on T-shirts.



This is so good taufik. Maybe you can add small print of bitcointalk.org I guess? I’m interested to purchase one if you will produce one of this mate!

Or probably coinomize sponsor it? *cough*  Cheesy
457  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: FALLING FALLING! on: November 12, 2023, 06:38:49 PM
When the EMA 200 was broken and the trend changed, I also don't dare say that now we are still in a bearish phase. Apart from discussing support and resistance with TA, Bitcoin's fundamentals have also improved recently, Fomo halving and ETFs have made investors and retail feel confident that BTC will continue to rise. So regarding the OP who stated the double top has been refuted because Bitcoin experienced a rebound to $38K a few days ago. This is very dangerous if we go against the flow, especially with Bitcoin's fundamentals which have been good recently.
You should be careful about that bro, because as you say price is currently drive by good fundamentals, especially by the ETF pending approval by the SEC. But how the market will react once it will happen? Seasoned traders buy the rumors and sell the news, so we are likely to undergo a dip when the first Bitcoin spot ETF will get accepted even if it's before the halving. So I don't think it's time to buy more BTC currently.

DCA is still good just for an assurance to accumulate more right before bitcoin reach above 40K level. You’re right that this current bullish trend might collapse anytime but I believe the price will still recover at some point since there’s halving next year which is one of bearer of positivity in Bitcoin.

You can still benefit on buying now if you will just hold still no matter what will be the next price movement of Bitcoin in the following days. I believe that SEC will just delay the announcement as much as possible instead of declining or approving any ETF since they already lose one case recently about declining an ETF approval.
458  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do not get scammed by this, specially newcomers. on: November 12, 2023, 06:27:06 PM
There’s tons of this scammer on telegram that is far worst than that. Telegram scammer impersonate an admin of the project which the user ask for help when he post on project telegram group. An ignorance user will surely become easily scam if they didn’t check the username of the impersonator carefully since they use tricky username just to imitate the legit admin.

Same with facebook and other social that scammer is being creative on how to trick poor newbie to get their seed phrase and private key.
459  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you use bitcoin when gambling? on: November 12, 2023, 05:11:26 PM
Seeing how bitcoin's fees have gone up a lot, I would assume that with the plethora of options for cheaper transactions, people must be using other options much more. Some might even prefer to use conventional means such a debit or credit cards.

Whatever your preference is, feel free to express why that is and also answer the poll (optionally). It's for research purposes only. Cheesy

This is only applicable for those user who stored their Bitcoin on exchange or not a Bitcoin holder naturally but as a Bitcoin holder, I still use Bitcoin to gamble since I need to still hold it while gambling so that I will not missed out the pump. A 2$-3$ fee can be easily recovered through a single bet and it’s really inconvenient to send my token from non custodial wallet to exchange just convert it on token that has cheaper fee.

I believe many user still use Bitcoin to gamble if they are a natural Bitcoin holder that is gambling regularly since the high fee is not that high to the point that it almost cover most of the balance on the transaction.
460  Local / Pilipinas / Bullrun Strategy Discussion on: November 12, 2023, 04:38:04 PM
Ano ang strategy ngayong bullrun?

Since nagsimula na nga ang inaasahan nating lahat na Bullrun, Ano ang mga plano nyo para kumita ng todo ngayong bullrun. Alam ko na madami dito na hinintay talaga ito at natuto na ng madami sa mga nakaraan na bullrun lalo na yung napalampas lang ito or maaga nag sold.

Plano ko ngayon ay Stake with time lock para sureball na hold then DCA sell every 10K gains ni Bitcoin since Bitcoin price ang basehan ko sa pagdetermine ng price movement ng altcoin. Alam ko na madami dito na minsan ay nagpapanic kapag hindi gumagalaw yung holdings nila while yung ibang coin ay nag gagain na ng malaki. Suggest ko lng na wag na kayo magpalipat lipat ng holdings at power hold since laging lumilipat yung mga trader na kumita na sa pump tokens papuntang token na hindi pa masyado pump.
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