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901  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Speculation: How to lose significant funds through malleability on: March 04, 2014, 06:58:21 AM
Any reasonable programmer would put into a place a system of archiving private keys that were no longer necessary.  To simply delete them would be pure incompetence.

Perhaps not exactly deliberately deleted, but "updated" during a rewrite.
902  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [PROPOSAL] - lock the apparent Mt. Gox coins for now on: March 04, 2014, 05:24:09 AM
I agree. The OP is yet another rinse and repeat of one of the worst proposals possible.

Something's wrong when senior members of the forum have no clue how the integrity and value of Bitcoin is maintained.
903  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 01:07:20 AM
goxBTC-only holders now face a very difficult choice: replace goxxed btc with fresh purchases before the price goes to Mars, or focus on alts or give up on crypto completely.
904  Economy / Speculation / Re: Whats goin on with Bitstamp right now?! on: March 03, 2014, 06:30:34 AM
Market deciding whether to snap the record 8-week downtrend, or ... not...

Record??
6 months in 2011

Lower highs every week since new year.
In 2011 some weeks spiked up although the monthly trend was down.
905  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts on: March 03, 2014, 04:40:10 AM
Love your charting service!

Any chance of adding Auroracoin soon? Airdrop to 320,000 people in Iceland is scheduled for March 25th. Exciting times.
906  Economy / Speculation / Re: Whats goin on with Bitstamp right now?! on: March 03, 2014, 04:36:27 AM
Market deciding whether to snap the record 8-week downtrend, or ... not...
907  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2014, 03:57:44 AM
Litecoin and ltc/btc continue to drop. Today they dropped a lot more than I would expect given that bitcoin didn't really move much. Do any experienced traders see this as a bearish sign for bitcoin? Is it possible that people are losing confidence in the market and therefore are selling alt-cryptos first before selling their bitcoin?

Litecoin is being crushed by Auroracoin. Loads of hashing power has moved across.

What on earth is an Auroracoin?

The mega pump and dump of the year?

The first attempt to displace the fiat currency for an entire country. A grand experiment which will prove very interesting, whatever happens. Let's just say that if it succeeds then it will be very bullish for Bitcoin too.

908  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2014, 03:29:14 AM
This reason http://auroracoin.org/blueprint.php

(I don't own any. Yet!)
909  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2014, 03:24:19 AM
Litecoin and ltc/btc continue to drop. Today they dropped a lot more than I would expect given that bitcoin didn't really move much. Do any experienced traders see this as a bearish sign for bitcoin? Is it possible that people are losing confidence in the market and therefore are selling alt-cryptos first before selling their bitcoin?

Litecoin is being crushed by Auroracoin. Loads of hashing power has moved across.
910  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2014, 12:16:12 AM
Maybe his Monday Fiat arrived.

Don't underestimate the most bullish day of the week:

So what could happen Monday?  Probability could give us a hint in addition to price action.

I have had debates with Bitcoin traders about trading on weekends.  One postulated that because Bitcoin is the only financial instrument whose exchanges are open seven days per week that price should go up the most over the weekend with high volume.  Another observed Sunday there is a steady rise before the Monday/Tuesday pumps before a Thursday/Friday selloff.  The former is a logical anecdote; more hobby traders participating on the weekend because they have more time.  The latter is a good observation.

But are these ideas profitably tradeable?  Do the statistics agree and knowing them could we better time our entries and exits?

I broke down the data for BitStamp just using Daily Open versus Close.  Basically; was the day UP or Down?  To capture the data with the best relevance I used all days from 1/1/2013 onward.  So what was the probability for each day of the week to close UP?

Saturday: 47%
Sunday: 70%
Monday: 74%
Tuesday: 66%
Wednesday: 68%
Thursday: 55%
Friday: 57%

When you consider that during this time Bitcoin has risen +6100% the probability is skewed to the upside.  That means that even though Sunday and Monday seem to be the best days to go bullish is it wise to just GO on that day?  Probably not; unless the charts back it up.  What does stand out when considering the bias is the one day that fails to even break 50/50; Saturday.


911  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2014, 11:56:17 PM
Can someone give me a brief background on the 2011 crash?   Was it just a hack of Gox driving the price from $30 to $2 over an extended period?

The 2011 crash proved that the market is far bigger than any one player. The price went from <$1 to $30 very fast and corrected in a steady downtrend. MtGox was then compromised (apparently via accountant's login) and the order book sold down to zero. This caused volatility and gox closed for 8 days while accounts were restored. After gox came back he market continued the downtrend from where it was before the gox problem occurred.

912  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2014, 09:29:08 PM
Monday morning fiat tide slowly washing in...
913  Economy / Speculation / Re: Markets not reacting to loss of 100s of Millions of $ is disturbing on: March 01, 2014, 09:48:05 PM
In a way I can understand OP's point of view, for example if a major investment bank like Goldman sachs tanks tmrw it would have a catastrophic affect on the stock markets and they wouldn't rebound within the same day.

The difference is between companies that have a slow and steady meltdown like Enron and MtGox, and companies which are seemingly OK like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers but catastrophically fail.

The market prices in meltdowns as everyone sees it happening. It is the catastrophic failures which catch the market by surprise, except for insiders who have sold much earlier.
914  Bitcoin / Press / Re: Japan minister calls bitcoin 'collapse' expected on: March 01, 2014, 09:45:29 AM
Bitcoiners call Japanese bond market 'collapse' expected
915  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2014, 07:10:35 AM
Nice upwards movement on houbi. stamp might break out of the downward trend in a few hours, cross your fingers though... its been several attempts...

I noticed that too. The markets may break the 7-week downtrend, particularly if 600 is regained and held for a day.
916  Economy / Speculation / Re: Now we have 750,000 less bitcoins in circulation ? on: March 01, 2014, 05:46:50 AM
If Gox tells us truth,

Stop! I think I have found the flaw in this argument.
917  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][AUR][MANDATORY UPDATE] Auroracoin - a cryptocurrency for Iceland on: March 01, 2014, 04:48:36 AM
I have a gut feeling that Auroracoin is going to be bigger than Litecoin by the time of Stage 1
918  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2014, 04:44:55 AM
I want to know why, with a digital currency like bitcoin, the stolen coins cannot be identified and blocked from use.  If the stolen coins could be disabled, then new coins could be automatically reproduced and restored to funds?  Why does each coin not have a fingerprint of sorts?  Maybe if this idea is antithetical to bitcoin, then another company could create a competing product that was in such a way theft proof, high insurance, etc.

Just wondering.

This would destroy Bitcoin's value. Currency has to be safe from censorship.. There has been many threads on the subject, Search for redlisting, whitelisting, blacklisting.

Consider a simple example. You have a 100 coin stash and pay 1 coin for a service, which turns out to be bad so you get into an argument with the vendor. Vendor checks your original transaction and sees a big change amount, and uses his influence to get your remaining coins blacklisted.
919  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: March 01, 2014, 02:29:46 AM
Of course, the cause could also simply be that they are retards and their system simply sent the 2nd transaction after it 'thought' the first one failed ... so there was no fraud/theft, it was simply a crap system sending BTC to people multiple times.

that wouldnt happen over years / 750k btc without one feedback from the community

Exactly. There has been a stunning silence from all the people who supposedly received double payouts from mtgox. Knowing this community there would have been some yahooing about it straight-away.
920  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: February 28, 2014, 09:58:39 PM
I wrote a transcript of the Japanese news item on Gox:
Thanks.

It looks like someone coached him through a traditional formal apology. But it wasn't followed by any atonement. He didn't even resign.


That's the Western fashion now. To say "I take full responsibility for what happened." and not do anything more.
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