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1941  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 08, 2015, 03:01:52 AM
looks like BitPay agrees with Gavin:

https://twitter.com/spair/status/596504169973944320
1942  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 08, 2015, 02:12:58 AM
When asked if that behavior was typical of OTC IPOs he stated that it was, but only for successful offerings.

    “Yeah, new successful offerings. Many simply go down after the first day. Compare it to the first three days of any recent tech IPOs and you should see a similar pattern.”


http://www.miningpool.co.uk/gbtc-trading-explodes-order-book-gap-narrowing/
1943  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 08, 2015, 01:53:34 AM
there is no doubt in my mind that THIS is the very chart, $DJT, some very powerful players are watching and seeking to stick save. or, yes, they could also just be powerful dip buyers of the weakest index around but my pt stands.  this is the chart to watch.  i count no less than 8 tests of the support line as drawn with someone intervening every single time to prevent a plunge (or dip buy).  their problem is, each bounce keeps getting weaker and weaker and we have a non-confirmation on the board:

1944  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 08, 2015, 01:46:12 AM
on a more general level, this is great news:

While the court didn’t reach the crucial question of whether the program violates the Fourth Amendment, the ruling gives civil libertarians good reason to hope that a massive and egregious violation of every American’s privacy will finally come to an end.

http://www.cato.org/blog/second-circuit-declares-nsas-telephone-dragnet-unlawful
1945  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 08, 2015, 01:25:53 AM
notice the MACD turning up strongly.  remember that bear mkts turn on bad news.  bad in the sense of extreme controversy over Gavin's proposal and seeming chaos of opinion in the Bitcoin community:

1946  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 08, 2015, 01:20:29 AM
Alan Reiner (Armory lead developer) weighs in and clearly shows that he understands the Big Picture.
What he writes deserves to be memorialized here as it is pertinent to the whole spirit of "Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP"

Quoted text below

This *is* urgent and needs to be handled right now, and I believe Gavin
has the best approach to this.  I have heard Gavin's talks on increasing
the block size, and the two most persuasive points to me were:

(1) Blocks are essentially nearing "full" now.  And by "full" he means
that the reliability of the network (from the average user perspective)
is about to be impacted in a very negative way (I believe it was due to
the inconsistent time between blocks).  I think Gavin said that his
simulations showed 400 kB - 600 kB worth of transactions per 10 min
(approx 3-4 tps) is where things start to behave poorly for certain
classes of transactions.  In other words, we're very close to the
effective limit in terms of maintaining the current "standard of
living", and with a year needed to raise the block time this actually is
urgent.

(2) Leveraging fee pressure at 1MB to solve the problem is actually
really a bad idea.  It's really bad while Bitcoin is still growing, and
relying on fee pressure at 1 MB severely impacts attractiveness and
adoption potential of Bitcoin (due to high fees and unreliability).  But
more importantly, it ignores the fact that for a 7 tps is pathetic for a
global transaction system.  It is a couple orders of magnitude too low
for any meaningful commercial activity to occur.  If we continue with a
cap of 7 tps forever, Bitcoin *will* fail.  Or at best, it will fail to
be useful for the vast majority of the world (which probably leads to
failure).  We shouldn't be talking about fee pressure until we hit 700
tps, which is probably still too low.

You can argue that side chains and payment channels could alleviate
this.  But how far off are they?  We're going to hit effective 1MB
limits long before we can leverage those in a meaningful way.  Even if
everyone used them, getting a billion people onto the system just can't
happen even at 1 transaction per year per person to get into a payment
channel or move money between side chains.

We get asked all the time by corporate clients about scalability.  A
limit of 7 tps makes them uncomfortable that they are going to invest
all this time into a system that has no chance of handling the economic
activity that they expect it handle.  We always assure them that 7 tps
is not the final answer.

Satoshi didn't believe 1 MB blocks were the correct answer.  I
personally think this is critical to Bitcoin's long term future.   And
I'm not sure what else Gavin could've done to push this along in a
meaninful way.

-Alan

wow, thanks so much for this.  there are no other Bitcoin devs i trust more than Alan & Gavin.  he's helped me immensely over the years as i was one of the only two to donate $500 (top level) to his initial Armory crowdfunding campaign what, 3-4 yrs ago now?  for that, i got an Armory USB stick, a teeshirt, a coupla bitcoins (i think), & most importantly his old laptop with a sticker on the back with his name and phone #'s, lol.  i'm quite sure he forgot to remove them and i've only ever used the # twice Wink  he's taught me alot about crypto.  i've tried to tailor back my contact with him in the last year or so as i know he is way busier than ever and has grown in stature so it didn't even occur to me to ask his opinion on this matter.  best thing about him is he's a great guy.  i'm so glad you did and hearing his response is reassuring to me that i am pushing the right direction.  thanks again.
1947  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 10:43:16 PM
How do you think ordinary Bitcoin users would react on hearing of crashing nodes, a swelling transaction backlog, a sudden spike in double spending, skyrocketing fees … and all of it because of an entirely predictable event with an incredibly simple fix?

They would conclude that the Bitcoin developer community was incompetent. That would make the news.


P2P don't react per futur anticipation ... that why P2P survive from 17 years now (in file sharing).
They see ... and ... they make correction.

We don't play like FED or BOJ or BCE ... with god prediction.
We wait ... see ... and make correction.

Like normal people.

normal ppl plan ahead too.

bit torrent can afford to take a wait and see attitude b/c it "only" involves sharing files, usually music, and is used by a small niche community.  p2p has never before dealt with the network of money which depends largely on "confidence".  Bitcoin can't afford to allow itself to be taken down only to get up again in a repetitive process.  i'd argue that the community wants to spread Bitcoin far and wide to replace one of the biggest problems in the world today; fiat money.  that can only happen with a growing level of confidence in a system that doesn't break down repetitively from choke points.  

that type of strategy could set us back a hundred years.
1948  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 10:35:57 PM
can one of you tech guys comment on Peter Todds claim that there was an entire book embedded in the BC a month ago?  how is it done?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/34uu02/why_increasing_the_max_block_size_is_urgent_gavin/cqystoo?context=3

Is this a consequence of p2sh?

Yes, it is.

They used the 520 byte of the redeemScript to "inject" suitably padded text for easy recovery with strings(1) (i.e. strings -n 20).

"inject" suitably padded text for easy recovery with strings(1) (i.e. strings -n 20).

can you explain this a bit more and did this bloat the p2sh tx markedly?  if it is such an effective attack, why aren't we seeing a whole slew of these occurring?
1949  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 10:14:10 PM

How do you think ordinary Bitcoin users would react on hearing of crashing nodes, a swelling transaction backlog, a sudden spike in double spending, skyrocketing fees … and all of it because of an entirely predictable event with an incredibly simple fix?

They would conclude that the Bitcoin developer community was incompetent. That would make the news.


well, if this happens we know exactly who to blame.  here's looking at you ....
1950  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 10:00:33 PM
Mike Hearn's with too much logic:

https://medium.com/@octskyward/crash-landing-f5cc19908e32
1951  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: [ESHOP launched] Trezor: Bitcoin hardware wallet on: May 07, 2015, 09:42:32 PM
I just briefly tested mycelium + trezor.

works beautifully. Really well-implemented.

yeah, it's great.

i hope one day Trezor implements a Secure Element chip like Ledger.  they're making alot of headway from that marketing.
1952  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 09:21:37 PM
can one of you tech guys comment on Peter Todds claim that there was an entire book embedded in the BC a month ago?  how is it done?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/34uu02/why_increasing_the_max_block_size_is_urgent_gavin/cqystoo?context=3
1953  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 07:16:44 PM
Bitcoin needs to do an Uber and scoop up as many users as fast as possible round the world before gvts, regulators, and banks can stop it.  we may already be there fortunately but we do have a ways to go and it's clear that 1MB is an artificial cap on growth.
That's the biggest concern I have.

Bank-based Bitcoin competitors are not stopping to take a break and study issues - they are actively working to hire developers and build systems that can grow faster than Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the anti-scaling crowd is telling us we need more time to study the scaling issues even though they've been saying that since the first time this issue came up in 2012.

Apparently they are the only developers capable of making any change at all.

Wait they're not? So what exactly is stopping some developers from coding the fork and releasing it?  Are people worried miners will attack and destroy it? That attack can't succeed in the long term. If the attack works once, you just fork again with a 1 line change to move the fork point forward. Miners are not going to keep wasting resources on that forever, once they see your fork isn't going away, they may see it as more profitable to mine on it honestly.

I'd run it, and I'd probably sell at least part of my stake in the 1mb fork.

problem with that is that it's tantamount to lack of advertising.  if you don't get a consensus, you risk large swaths of the community not even knowing about your fork and others advocating against it.  it would be ideal to get a consensus so that everyone knows and are all onboard to make the switch to the new code. 

most ppl don't really understand how Bitcoin works or the anything about the whole process of consensus or open source.  they'll get confused about what to do if there continues to be battling btwn information sources.  so yes, it's best to get a consensus if possible.

Gavin's already started coding a possible fork, you're telling me he's not well known enough in the community to get any backing? He may not go that route for political reasons, but anyone could build his code and run it.

no, i didn't say that.  he does have the credibility to obtain backing for his fork.  that is what will probably happen.  i just said that in the ideal situation, consensus would be achieved.  i don't think it's too late for that b/c in my opinion, the Blockstream devs have already lost.  if they persist in obstructionist behavior, they'll probably get replaced.
1954  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 06:22:42 PM
Bitcoin needs to do an Uber and scoop up as many users as fast as possible round the world before gvts, regulators, and banks can stop it.  we may already be there fortunately but we do have a ways to go and it's clear that 1MB is an artificial cap on growth.
That's the biggest concern I have.

Bank-based Bitcoin competitors are not stopping to take a break and study issues - they are actively working to hire developers and build systems that can grow faster than Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the anti-scaling crowd is telling us we need more time to study the scaling issues even though they've been saying that since the first time this issue came up in 2012.

Apparently they are the only developers capable of making any change at all.

Wait they're not? So what exactly is stopping some developers from coding the fork and releasing it?  Are people worried miners will attack and destroy it? That attack can't succeed in the long term. If the attack works once, you just fork again with a 1 line change to move the fork point forward. Miners are not going to keep wasting resources on that forever, once they see your fork isn't going away, they may see it as more profitable to mine on it honestly.

I'd run it, and I'd probably sell at least part of my stake in the 1mb fork.

problem with that is that it's tantamount to lack of advertising.  if you don't get a consensus, you risk large swaths of the community not even knowing about your fork and others advocating against it.  it would be ideal to get a consensus so that everyone knows and are all onboard to make the switch to the new code.  

most ppl don't really understand how Bitcoin works or the anything about the whole process of consensus or open source.  they'll get confused about what to do if there continues to be battling btwn information sources.  so yes, it's best to get a consensus if possible.

Problem is getting a decentralized consensus. Thank you Bitcoin. ^^

On a personal note, nullc & co may be biaised by their SC stuff, I dont see how these solutions would harm Bitcoin itself, on the contrary.
Otoh, Gavin being an MIT fellow now, I am more than ever concern that he may be biaised by the US Governement.
Besides i dont really appreciate his pushy attitude and I fail to agree with his arguments (ie. his childish blog points and "kudos"), which are anything but technical btw.
Not that i am an "anti" blocksize fork forever either.

Anyway im just a regular bitcoiner, hoping it all goes for the best greater good.

did you see my perspective on this?:


I haven't read all his bog posts but he is showing signs of understand when it comes to engaging the community.

I can only imagine all these posts were written by taking feedback from lengthy consultations and he planned the release to capture all the fragmented interests in the Bitcoin community one buy one. Leaving specific interests to fight fires as he moves into virgin territory to start a new blaze.

I take my hat off to him he is creative and that's his biggest assets.

i put this video up last month where Gavin clearly telegraphs what is happening now.  he said he might have to throw his weight around which is what he is now doing.  and he has the credibility to do so.  but you have to back up around 2y to understand why he's doing this.  my conspiratorial mind says this is when gmax first hatched the idea of Blockstream and started working on gathering up most of the other core devs into the scheme.  since that time, nothing substantial has gotten done around the core protocol as solex pointed out above. i say it's b/c Blockstream stands to make billions if tx's are forced off MC to SC's.  it's also the time when gmax started hitting Reddit and the forum about the SC idea.  while Gavin has always been respectful and even slightly positive about SC's, i don't think he's fully on board with the idea and i've pointed out subtle examples of such.  and for good reasons as i, and you, have tried to articulate in many settings.  but my point is, this is the setting around which his blog posts are occurring;  it's now time to open up Bitcoin to the masses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIafZXRDH7w
1955  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 06:17:44 PM
oh yes, nice ramp!
1956  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 05:42:29 PM
I just put something together on Reddit with a goal of coming up with a constructive path forward to helping advance the blockchain debate.
I care more that constructive progress is made, than how it is done. So what you see is merely one suggested path forward. It might be rejected out of hand, or it may have some merit and after Refiners have a field day with it, we would have an exciting experiment to watch.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3573iy/a_proposal_to_safely_and_constructively_advance/

you removed it already?
1957  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 05:22:40 PM
Bitcoin needs to do an Uber and scoop up as many users as fast as possible round the world before gvts, regulators, and banks can stop it.  we may already be there fortunately but we do have a ways to go and it's clear that 1MB is an artificial cap on growth.
That's the biggest concern I have.

Bank-based Bitcoin competitors are not stopping to take a break and study issues - they are actively working to hire developers and build systems that can grow faster than Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the anti-scaling crowd is telling us we need more time to study the scaling issues even though they've been saying that since the first time this issue came up in 2012.

Apparently they are the only developers capable of making any change at all.

Wait they're not? So what exactly is stopping some developers from coding the fork and releasing it?  Are people worried miners will attack and destroy it? That attack can't succeed in the long term. If the attack works once, you just fork again with a 1 line change to move the fork point forward. Miners are not going to keep wasting resources on that forever, once they see your fork isn't going away, they may see it as more profitable to mine on it honestly.

I'd run it, and I'd probably sell at least part of my stake in the 1mb fork.

problem with that is that it's tantamount to lack of advertising.  if you don't get a consensus, you risk large swaths of the community not even knowing about your fork and others advocating against it.  it would be ideal to get a consensus so that everyone knows and are all onboard to make the switch to the new code. 

most ppl don't really understand how Bitcoin works or the anything about the whole process of consensus or open source.  they'll get confused about what to do if there continues to be battling btwn information sources.  so yes, it's best to get a consensus if possible.
1958  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 04:57:28 PM
Block size could reach the 1mb limit at any time with a massive influx of users and the chart for average block size looks like it could possibly have a sharp exponential rise hitting the limit within a short period of time, well before March 2016.

IMO, even Gavin may be to late.  Most likely, if this increase in adoption happens, transactions will be pushed off-chain to Coinbase and other services until the limit can be increased.  Anybody opposed to the block size increase doesn't even have a working solution for scale, so I don't see how their arguments can even fly.  

furthermore, no one wants to use Coinbase to buy their cup of coffee p2p.  they just won't do it.

Bitcoin needs to do an Uber and scoop up as many users as fast as possible round the world before gvts, regulators, and banks can stop it.  we may already be there fortunately but we do have a ways to go and it's clear that 1MB is an artificial cap on growth.
1959  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 04:39:14 PM
this is a big deal.

Benjamin M. Lawsky, Superintendent of Financial Services, today announced that the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) granted a charter under the New York Banking Law to itBit Trust Company, LLC – a commercial Bitcoin exchange. ItBit, which is based in New York City, is the first virtual currency company to receive a charter from NYDFS.

http://www.dfs.ny.gov/about/press2015/pr1505071.htm

accts also have $250K FDIC insurance.

this is interesting:

ItBit avoided the need for a BitLicense by instead applying for a trust company charter, which appears to come with even stricter regulations. It is the first trust company to be created in New York since the financial crisis.

Many Bitcoin companies have been held back by the difficulty of opening accounts with banks, which have been hesitant to deal with the risks of virtual currencies. As a trust company, itBit will be able to be the custodian of customer funds by itself.

The focus at itBit will be on allowing customers to buy, sell and hold the digital tokens as an asset, like a sort of digital gold.


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/08/business/dealbook/bitcoin-exchange-receives-first-license-in-new-york-state.html?_r=1
1960  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 07, 2015, 04:32:25 PM
this is a big deal.

Benjamin M. Lawsky, Superintendent of Financial Services, today announced that the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) granted a charter under the New York Banking Law to itBit Trust Company, LLC – a commercial Bitcoin exchange. ItBit, which is based in New York City, is the first virtual currency company to receive a charter from NYDFS.

http://www.dfs.ny.gov/about/press2015/pr1505071.htm

accts also have $250K FDIC insurance.
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