I am supplementing my earlier post to you, bitserve.
More or less, I had expected that $3k would have been the extreme maximum of any BTC price correction in this cycle, and surely our price correction down to $4k (more than $2k in less than a week) has also been a bit more and a bit faster than I expected, so in some sense, I have overbought on this downward leg a bit.
I considered that it was necessary to take my own advice in my earlier post to you, bitserve, and I reassessed all of my still outstanding buy orders and the amount of fiat that had been allocated to those buy orders.
I have now reset my buy orders to go down to $2k.
Of course, the amounts of my buy orders seem to have become more and more pathetic because I feel that I have overbought a bit out of an expectation that we would not be going here.
Nonetheless, we are here, and my reconsideration of my buy orders have caused me to feel more prepared for down to $2k and to buy all the way down, if such a bTC price drop were to happen quickly. If such BTC price drop were to come about more slowly (that is if there were to be a drop) then I would have the ability to reassess and potentially add more fiat with upcoming anticipated cashflow - whether it were to take 3 months or a year or maybe longer (even worse case scenarios that seem quite implausible and unlikely but still have to psychologically and financially prepare)... , and of course, any radical BTC price moves along the way may cause reconsideration(s) based on plans and strategies already in place.
I have a bit of a sense, maybe even a bit above 50/50 that our bottom is already "in" at $4k, but gosh, we can really never know how many more coins rich people might be willing to throw at this situation and hoping to take advantage of the current state of bitcoin (even while there is no real fundamental problems).. and any possible downward momentum that they believe to still have based on breaks of various levels of support in the past approximate 6 days.
That's a sound plan and it is probably what I would do, except I am basically out of the trading game as my trading fiat is practically depleted. I will probably just throw it sooner than later to buy a little bit more but, it won't make any difference. As I say it is too little.
Contrary to the 2013-2014 downtrend where I was able to almost double my BTC count I haven't played my cards well this time. I was overconfident that once $10K was breached on the uptrend (something I did not expected to happen so soon, but in a few more years IF lucky) it would act as a support/bottom. More so when the ATH reached almost double than that.
So I not only sold too little from $10K to $19K but I depleted most of it rebuying on the way down to $10K. Under $10K I was already out of my plan and could only do some scrapping on the volatility here and there.
Also scrapping on the volatility was way better/easier right after the 2013 ATH than it is now, for three reasons:
- The volatility was brutal, with huge flash spikes all over the place.
- Arbitrage and bots were not as advanced, and there were a few seconds delay between huobi (where most big movements originated) and Bitstamp action. So it was possible to outrun other traders if you were quick.
- I was trading much more aggressively and with most of my stash. This time I tried to maintain my exchanges exposure to the same in fiat valuation, extracting BTC periodically to cold storage to achieve that target. I ended with only around 5-10% of my stash online and, even then, only a minor part of it in FIAT.
I did not adapt to the circumstances, or better yet my interpretation of the circumstances was incorrect.
I thought the market had already matured enough that a correction as deep as the previous was out of question. I fooled myself.
Still I have been able to "beat the market" in the sense that I end with a bit more BTC (which is always my goal) but for me is a failure.
Anyway, current price is more or less in line with my previous expectation so, in a sense, everything is going according to my plan as if the FOMO/bubble phase of the last bullrun didn't ever happen.
I only feel a bit saddened for not having taken advantage of the opportunity of, at least, doubling again and for not having done anything when I indeed knew in december that this had to implode.
My target is not to reach a price where I cash it all out but to have a stash that even when bottoming I still have enough to "retire" so I won't have to care about price shenanigans anymore. That will only be possible if Bitcoin really succeeds. So that's where my main bet is. Will try to play my cards better next time, though.
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