Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.
99.9% And 50% chance to see new lows before then. I don't care about the interin... In fact I do expect a high probability of lower lows this very same year. Especially in Q1-Q2, maybe even Q3. 99.9% is still an almost delusional high chance, don't you think? |
|
|
|
20%-30% of not happening I will have to deal with that... I am going to do the most risky bet of my life (which is not much to say as I am extremely conservative) based on that perception. Wish me luck  I will probably be ok even if I am wrong or things doesn't happen as I do expect as the most probable outcome. Careful. We may go much lower in the interim. Do not put yourself in a position where you are overinvested and feel you have to cut your losses. Only invest what you are prepared to hold firmly until well after next halvening. If you want to be conservative, wait until we break the long term bear line. 2014 suggests we will break it around this price level in October 2019. I was clearly overinvested in Q4 2017. I can hodl it all right now. I am just going to morgtage again, for second time in my life, for another property that I feel it is clearly well under market price. My regular income cannot cover it, but I do have enough FIAT savings to pay it for almost 10 years even with no income and without having to sell my Bitcoins. I guess the worst that it could happen is that I would need to sell the property (probably for more than I am buying it) As I said I am extremely conservative, but it is more risky bet I have ever made in my life. Wouldn't like to have to sell my Bitcoins at a "bad price". But I can perfectly hodl for 5+ years no matter what. It's just that I thought I would never buy anything on debt/mortgage again (already paid my main home).... but sometimes you don't have any choice if you don't want to miss the train. If Bitcoin pumps sometime in the next 5 years I will have made the best decision in my life. If it doesn't, I will probably have to sell the property. Hopefully not losing any money, but it will be a failure for me. Sorry to go into granular details, but if your income cannot support that second (presumably larger) property, how do you know that they will give you a loan? Based on what? Your savings? Last time I refi, they were real bastards about everything. Good question. I will ask my father to endorse (is that the right word when a person gets responsible if I don't pay?) me. He (and the bank) knows I have another fully paid property (which is slightly more expensive btw), I ALSO have enough fiat savings to cover more than half of the price of the second one (not counting Bitcoin). Plus the appraisal of the property will probably show way higher value than buying value. I assume that's enough to approve the loan. I am in a WAY better position than last (first) time, which I already finished paying after 20 years. |
|
|
|
20%-30% of not happening I will have to deal with that... I am going to do the most risky bet of my life (which is not much to say as I am extremely conservative) based on that perception. Wish me luck I will probably be ok even if I am wrong or things doesn't happen as I do expect as the most probable outcome. Careful. We may go much lower in the interim. Do not put yourself in a position where you are overinvested and feel you have to cut your losses. Only invest what you are prepared to hold firmly until well after next halvening. If you want to be conservative, wait until we break the long term bear line. 2014 suggests we will break it around this price level in October 2019. I was clearly overinvested in Q4 2017. I can hodl it all right now. I am just going to morgtage again, for second time in my life, for another property that I feel know it is clearly well under market price. My regular income cannot cover it, but I do have enough FIAT savings to pay it for almost 10 years even with no income and without having to sell my Bitcoins. I guess the worst that it could happen is that I would need to sell the property (probably for more than I am buying it). As I said I am extremely conservative, but it is more risky bet I have ever made in my life. Wouldn't like to have to sell my Bitcoins at a "bad price". But I can perfectly hodl for 5+ years no matter what. It's just that I thought I would never buy anything on debt/mortgage again (already paid my main home).... but sometimes you don't have any choice if you don't want to miss the train. If Bitcoin pumps sometime in the next 5 years I will have made the best decision in my life. If it doesn't, I will probably have to sell the property. Hopefully not losing any money, but it will be a failure for me. |
|
|
|
Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.
100.1% No, really. Even 100% would be way too much. Same chance of Roach not becoming a functional member of society. 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 R0ach won't ever become a functional member of society. Bitcoin has way more failure probabilities, sorry. Even r0ach himself can confirm this affirmation. |
|
|
|
20%-30% of not happening I will have to deal with that... I am going to do the most risky bet of my life (which is not much to say as I am extremely conservative) based on that perception. Wish me luck I will probably be ok even if I am wrong or things doesn't happen as I do expect as the most probable outcome. |
|
|
|
That's basically what I think. Being my idea of high 80%+
Yeah, once $10K is reached that would mean a great deal of confidence as you say.
There'll be many, many more people watching intently this time around compared to besting $1000 once again. Yes, FOMO ^2 |
|
|
|
Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.
High. But I think it's going to be long road with much adversity. Despite it being half the ATH, I think a return to five figures will be the equivalent of getting back over $1000 and that was a three year grind. It'll be a huge hump that needs taking out and once it is a great deal of confidence will flow back in from the outside. That's basically what I think. Being my idea of high 80%+ Yeah, once $10K is reached that would mean a great deal of confidence as you say. |
|
|
|
Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.
100.1% No, really. Even 100% would be way too much. |
|
|
|
Muchas gracias por el merit paxmao!!! Estoy de coña, pero gracias de todas formas! No te mando un PM porque ya sería abusar de la coña |
|
|
|
|
Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.
|
|
|
|
Old sideways going on, with quick small minibarts and debarts.
I just started a new trading strategy with my play money.
It should be low profit, but low maintainance as well.
I'm waiting to see how it pays out.
Scalping? |
|
|
|
Oops...  I did not see it, I'm accumulating work in the forum. Accumulated PoWOW! * Proof of Wall Observer Work |
|
|
|
OT: Here's Tim Cook's plan to get more people to upgrade their iPhones and turn Apple revenue aroundhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-tim-cook-apos-plan-142600035.html- In an interview with CNBC, CEO Tim Cook laid out his plan for getting revenue back on track by encouraging customers to upgrade their iPhones.
Cook said he will focus on the factors Apple can control, like marketing its trade-in program and developing a payment plan for iPhones, rather than those he can't, like trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
A payment plan for a smart phone? Really? Here's an idea Tim, why don't you try making an iPhone that's actually fucking affordable? At $1000+, you've priced iPhones right out of the Average Joe mainstream market. Even in China. It's a fucking phone for god's sake, not a Rolls Royce. Fuck Apple, Pixel phones all day every day! I have just bought a refurbished Iphone SE from China for 175€ to replace my older iPhone 5. No way I am buying their latest ridiculously overpriced models. Staying (at least) two generations behind seem to be the perfect spot for me. As you say it is a fucking phone, not a damn investment! And what about their new Mac Mini's? $1200+ for the cheaper 128GB SSD NOT-UPGRADEABLE one? Are we crazy or what? Pretty happy with my 2015 Mac Mini that I bought for $350 in Fry's offer and upgraded myself to 512GB SSD. That being said, I like Apple products but WTF man.... That pricing scheme and outrageous markup might make some sense if you are a niche brand like Bang & Oluffsen or Loewe with very little market share but not in case of a mainstream seller. Where are economies of scale here? Oh yeah, in the profits account. They are marketing geniuses that we need to concede.  |
|
|
|
I am already wondering at what time does the party starts?  |
|
|
|
@bitserve
I agree with all your points and I'd like you to allow me to add two more point...
Even if there was no fractional reserve and even if all the peoples' money were really existing in banks, we'd have two more problems: security and "precision (?)".
1) The problem of security with cash is obvious, notes can be stolen and centralised digital accounts can be hacked. A successful 51% attack on a widely used blockchain though is not as easy.
2) I can't put a name on this problem but I'll give an example: A bank is holding 10% of a countries wealth in notes. An explosion scattering some in the air while destroys and burns others. What happens next? Do you print the notes again? Do you subtract the missing amount from the bank's own account? What about the notes that went flying? Similar problems in a much smaller scale happen every day, for example having a low value note cut in half or a coin drop in the sewers. I might interpret it wrong but I think that fiat currencies can't work with 0% fractional reserves and money printing, only the blockchain can work without these and still operate fine.
By the way, I'm from Greece, I've been through Capital Controls and we're still under some controls, for example we cannot top-up investment accounts with cards, only through the slow wire transfers.
In a way crypto can be stolen too. I mean, there's not much difference if crypto is stolen from a user (not the blockchain) or notes are stolen from the bank. It just change hands. The same way, when notes are destroyed it is very similar to what happens when coins get "destroyed" (ie. sent to a sinkhole address or lost keys). The only difference is that if it can be proved a note is damaged it can be replaced/reprinted by the central bank otherwise it would just be money of the bank that it would simply lose. In theory there is not "reprint" for missing/lost notes. And it doesn't matter because there are many other reasons for printing NEW money. Also, there is a procedure that defines what conditions have to be met to consider a note replaceable but I don't remember all the details. If the damaged note doesn't meet the criteria you have just lost it, if it does the central bank exchanges it for a good one. How is Bitcoin doing in Greece btw? |
|
|
|
admins in bitfinex telegram - the matching engine is down, funds are safu
on proof of key day
coincidence
nothing to see
What do the people that watch the cold wallets say? Any exchange cold wallets significantly impacted? Or proportionally more than the rest? |
|
|
|
I can not attach it to my profile, activity 98..., at the moment, I'm going to buy a frame, I'll hang it in my office. Thanks xhomerx10, is perfect, design, texture, background, beautiful, proud of this hat.   Hey VB, congrats on your 100+ merits and getting your hat exactly at the 10th Bitcoin anniversary! |
|
|
|
I think "Proof of Keys" is an unnecessary burden to the Bitcoin & exchange networks... I don't like the idea of shooting myself in the foot. I understand the idea of not letting exchanges use our coins in a fractional reserve setting, but I don't think it will make a difference for just one day... If they want to do it, they will, since they will always have some of our coins in their wallets. The good qualities of Bitcoin (decentralized, distributed, immutable, fungible, borderless, permissionless, rare, capped, non-inflationary), as compared to fiat, are guaranteed by its design, not by what exchanges do or don't do.
Why not do the opposite: withdraw all of our fiat from the banks! That would put a stress to their network...
It would cause a lot of stress for nearly everyone since loans exceed savings by a very large margin. In Canada, there is no reserve requirement so theoretically we have an indeterminate (possibly infinite) money supply based on the formula for money multiplier (m) given the Reserve requirement (R): m=1/R That being said, I went into the bank a couple of years ago to withdraw more than I was able to withdraw in one day from an ATM (which is $2000) - seems to me I was looking to get around 6k. First, they wanted to know why I needed "so much" money and if a bank draft or check wouldn't be a better option. They chastised me for not calling ahead and I had to sit and wait for the money to be ready. Oh, I was also required to withdraw my maximum from their ATM first (I don't pay a fee if I use theirs so that didn't bother me too much). When the cashier called me back to the counter, she had a manila envelope she was digging her hand into that I could see had at least two wrapped stacks of $100 dollar bills. I tried to keep the conversation light-hearted saying "You have plenty of cash there! Why did you make me take money from the ATM?" and she told me they had been directed to discourage large cash withdrawals. Fast forward a couple of years to the present and just before Christmas I went to the same branch because it was on my route and I needed some cash. While they still have people working inside, they don't do physical cash withdrawals. The only option is to use their ATMs. They have been popping up everywhere since about the middle of 2018 in this area and I believe one bank calls them "Advice-based Centers" where the bank employees are directed to show you how to use an ATM if you request cash and they don't have tellers anymore. So really, the only thing a bank run will cause is line-ups at the ATMS and stress for those with savings accounts. Buy Bitcoin. There are perfectly justified reasons why you need to call in advance to have them get ready your cash if the amount is above regular daily/weekly requirements. The most they can do (depending on country laws or bank rules you signed) is that they require you to come with a security guard if the cash amount is above certain limits. Other than that they should have it available for you in less than 48 hours since your request no matter if the amount is millions in cash. Of course you will be asked to explain your reason so that they can fill the mandatory paperwork for the regulators. And maybe you will also have to go to a main branch and not your usual one too. But that doesn't matter anyways... as you say, they don't have enough cash (and I am not talking about notes, but liquidity) to cover even 10% of the saving accounts + deposit accounts. What happens then if 20% of the amounts were to be withdrawn? Not much... the bank would loan the cash (usually from the central bank) to fullfil those requests. That's no problem because the bank have enough collateral to do it... if it reaches a point where it doesn't and is impossible to recover it is usually bought by another bank which absorbs its assets and obligations. But... what happens if it is not a single bank but a country wide bank run? Then the first clients will probably get all their cash out, but as soon as the requests escalate they do have to impose limits because the central bank is not able to balance the liquidity anymore. See Argentina, Greece, etc... That's the "beauty" of fractional reserve banking and why we do not want to see anything like that in crypto. There's not point in doing an exercise of "bank run" with banks, we already know what would happen because that is exactly how it is intended to work. But in crypto it should not happen anything and if it does it is a sign of fractional banking where there should be NONE. P.S.: Oh, and there are reasons why reserve banking is good for the growth of the economy. In some way it could be considered a way of optimising available resources. The problem comes when you increase the debt levels irresponsibly and all the castle falls apart... and it also opens the door to creating money out of thin air that is not supported by real assets. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
