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2101  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2019, 11:07:48 AM
I am against doxing anyone, maybe even r0ach.

Anyway, do what you want if it is worth for you... I don't care quickly scrolling down but there's some people that have an easy trigger ignore buttom. And I can't blame them. Just saying.
2102  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2019, 10:44:50 AM
@Lambie_Slayer R0ach is a very different beast than Lambie. You won't be able to get him out of here by engaging him. On the contrary. Yeah I know I sometimes also engage him when I fall on the trap or whatever... my fault. But you are carrying this to the extreme. Don't lose your time, really.
2103  Local / Primeros pasos y ayuda / Re: HILO DE MERITO EN ESPAÑOL MAYO 2018- Pon aquí posts de calidad on: January 06, 2019, 03:30:53 AM
...
Estoy de coña, pero gracias de todas formas! No te mando un PM porque ya sería abusar de la coña Smiley

Menos mal que me he molestado en agrandar el texto jiji

Tongue
2104  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2019, 03:19:44 AM
@jbreher, are you talking BTC or the bit'alts ? to hit that 100K ?

My hope is that it would be SV. As time goes by, hope diminishes. I will continue to think big blocks is the proper scaling solution regardless of the outcome.

If SV or ABC hit anything approaching 100k, I win extra-bigly. If BTC approaches 100K, I win something less bigly. Either way, future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.

Good you keep on the originals as well.....


He probably has way more BTC than most people here... Of course that is just MY speculation.

P.S.: For sure he also has huge heaps more Bcash (both flavours) than anyone else here Smiley
2105  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2019, 03:15:52 AM
Apple products are expensive. You can tell that just by looking at the high margins they have, which they do have thanks to economies of scale that go directly to their profits account instead of a lower price for the customer. Other than that, Apple products are excellent.
2106  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2019, 02:05:34 AM
Wowowowowowowo!

Congrats d_eddie!!!!

And respect for the giant push gentlemand!!
2107  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2019, 01:51:35 AM
Thanks for the merits, dear sirs. Much appreciated Smiley

F*** i have difficulties with keeping those sendables......  but you got so much activity just need some more MERIT to get it to HERO, and i was waiting to, for once be the one that could give a JUMP KICK under the ass of getting there
(also THX to marcus, otherwise i was sitting with 0Smertis as a bum as well)
also think those 10 are very very very well spend
the rest of them will flow in smaller amounts Grin

Yup, let's just make d_eddie a more than deserved hero already!

I would give him a good push if I could. I am sure there's people with some expendables that could help here!
2108  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2019, 01:49:14 AM
   So, I wasn't able to visit with my family for the holidays. We exchanged gifts, today. Look what my sister gave to me.



Should I eat them, or HODL?

HODL as a hedge. If Bitcoin were to fail those "coins" would probably never produced anymore and become a collection item. OTOH, if it succeesds the market will be flooded with them.

Looks a "perfect" hedge to me Smiley

Sounds like a plan to me. I will transfer them to "cold storage."  However, what methods should I be using to make my refrigerator more secure?



Source: http://www.lockthefridge.com/
2109  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2019, 01:38:32 AM
Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.
100.1%
No, really. Even 100% would be way too much.

Really.

Next four years ? That's an eternity for Bitcorn.

Considering that the next block halving will occur before the next four years, it's simple math and supply/demand that we'll be above $10k before then.

I BELIEVE !!!

Yeah but 100% doesn't exist in anything. Otherwise you would just sell everything and put it into Bitcoin again. Let's just say you consider a 95% chance? That is still a fucking awesome asymmetric bet!

https://www.businessinsider.nl/didi-taihuttu-sold-everything-for-bitcoin-fans-2017-12/?international=true&r=US

He's the famous man everyone knows from the news in Belgium & the Netherlands. Sold everything (incl his house) to invest in BTC . Some think he's insane, some think he's brilliant.

I think he is sorta insane no matter what the outcome is. If Bitcoin goes to $100K and he is able to hodl until then some would say he was brilliant... not me. There is high probability the outcome will be good, but still it does look like a very risky/insane thing to do. I wish him all the luck of course!
2110  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2019, 01:23:19 AM
   So, I wasn't able to visit with my family for the holidays. We exchanged gifts, today. Look what my sister gave to me.



Should I eat them, or HODL?

HODL as a hedge. If Bitcoin were to fail those "coins" would probably never produced anymore and become a collection item. OTOH, if it succeesds the market will be flooded with them.

Looks a "perfect" hedge to me Smiley
2111  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2019, 01:11:09 AM
Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

4 years? Maybe 80-85%

Good honest opinion. It is also in line with my thinking.

I understand some people say 100% (or over, lol)  as in it is the most probable outcome and they would be surprised if it wouldn't happen... but that's not how probabilities work. Otherwise someone would just sell all he owns and even what doesn't and go all in... which is a very risk thing to do unless it was really 100% probability/guarantee... which obviously is not nor can be.

Bitcoin has a favorable enough positive asymmetric probability without needing to exaggerate the percentages.

I guess you also would give a probability of around 10-25% to $100K in the next 4/5 years? And maybe another 10-20% of never (in a reasonable timeframe ie 10 years) recovering its last ATH? Which is still a fucking good asymmetric probability....

2112  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2019, 03:06:58 PM
@r0ach Jesus, even when you are somewhat right about something you have to mix your insane shit with it. This time with.... satanism?
 
Nevermind, You are a lost cause and I don't want to keep upsetting the people that have you in ignore (that if they haven't ignored me already for feeding you). If some day you learn to behave we could discuss this things but while you keep showing your racism, insanity and lack of respect to other human beings this is going nowhere.

Be happy, if you can.
2113  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2019, 02:56:24 PM
^ You are right. Stop whining. Just accept it.

And no, you are not an 8. No matter what delusional work you think you could put into it. You have never been (if you had you would be pretty happy with that reality), I can tell. And the older you get the lower the score. Forget about it and try to get some success in life to compensate.
2114  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2019, 02:37:13 PM
There's no fucking reason to party about silver. That's why. You should already know that.
2115  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2019, 01:21:24 PM
Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

100.1%

No, really. Even 100% would be way too much.

Same chance of Roach not becoming a functional member of society. 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

R0ach won't ever become a functional member of society. Bitcoin has way more failure probabilities, sorry.

Even r0ach himself can confirm this affirmation.

@r0ach I know you are busy trolling atm, but can you please confirm?

Do you think Bitcoin has way more failure probabilities than you of ever becoming a functional member of society? Just a simple yes or no... when you have the time.
2116  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2019, 12:42:19 PM
@bitserve

Some think 100% for very real, cause Some are real ALL IN with BTC......

Besides maybe Elwar, most people here are not really ALL IN. And IIRC Elwar sold a good part of his stash at around $5000. Maybe he rebought later though.

Not in here Maybe, but for me is being 90% BTC and 10% for living like really all in and i know people like that, of course not to much Roll Eyes

Also on Belgium news there is that Holland Guy sold everything house etc for BTC, and live in a trailer ever since....


But you have your home I assume? So not 100% see? Maybe not even that 90% you say Smiley

Or you really mean 90% of your net worth is on Bitcoin at CURRENT price? (No need to answer of course)

The holland guy yeah, that sounds like being almost 100% in... if everything is true and he doesn't have anything else.

Elwar also sold his home and put it all into Bitcoin. So he was sorta all in. But at that time he had (presumably) an awesome salary too so not really risking it all in the bet. His back was well covered... the bet ended being perfectly good and he retired but if it had not, his back was well covered.
2117  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2019, 12:29:34 PM
@bitserve

Some think 100% for very real, cause Some are real ALL IN with BTC......

Besides maybe Elwar, most people here are not really ALL IN. And IIRC Elwar sold a good part of his stash at around $5000. Maybe he rebought later though.
2118  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2019, 12:25:37 PM
Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.
100.1%
No, really. Even 100% would be way too much.

Really.

Next four years ? That's an eternity for Bitcorn.

Considering that the next block halving will occur before the next four years, it's simple math and supply/demand that we'll be above $10k before then.

I BELIEVE !!!

Yeah but 100% doesn't exist in anything. Otherwise you would just sell everything and put it into Bitcoin again. Let's just say you consider a 95% chance? That is still a fucking awesome asymmetric bet!
2119  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2019, 12:18:23 PM
20%-30% of not happening I will have to deal with that...

I am going to do the most risky bet of my life (which is not much to say as I am extremely conservative) based on that perception. Wish me luck Smiley

I will probably be ok even if I am wrong or things doesn't happen as I do expect as the most probable outcome.

Careful.   We may go much lower in the interim.  Do not put yourself in a position where you are overinvested and feel you have to cut your losses.  Only invest what you are prepared to hold firmly until well after next halvening.  

If you want to be conservative, wait until we break the long term bear line.  2014 suggests we will break it around this price level in October 2019.  

I was clearly overinvested  in Q4 2017. I can hodl it all right now.

I am just going to morgtage again, for second time in my life, for another property that I feel it is clearly well under market price. My regular income cannot cover it, but I do have enough FIAT savings to pay it for almost 10 years even with no income and without having to sell my Bitcoins.

I guess the worst that it could happen is that I would need to sell the property (probably for more than I am buying it)

As I said I am extremely conservative, but it is more risky bet I have ever made in my life. Wouldn't like to have to sell my Bitcoins at a "bad price". But I can perfectly hodl for 5+ years no matter what.

It's just that I thought I would never buy anything on debt/mortgage again (already paid my main home).... but sometimes you don't have any choice if you don't want to miss the train.

If Bitcoin pumps sometime in the next 5 years I will have made the best decision in my life. If it doesn't, I will probably have to sell the property. Hopefully not losing any money, but it will be a failure for me.

Sorry to go into granular details, but if your income cannot support that second (presumably larger) property, how do you know that they will give you a loan?
Based on what? Your savings? Last time I refi, they were real bastards about everything.



Good question. I will ask my father to endorse (is that the right word when a person gets responsible if I don't pay?) me. He (and the bank) knows I have another fully paid property (which is slightly more expensive btw), I ALSO have enough fiat savings to cover more than half of the price of the second one (not counting Bitcoin). Plus the appraisal of the property will probably show way higher value than buying value.

I assume that's enough to approve the loan. I am in a WAY better position than last (first) time, which I already finished paying after 20 years.


I know you recently, but you seem responsible  Cool, but do not involve your father in this financial operation, banks are like the devil.

My father is rich very wealthy. I am not. I don't need to (financially) worry about him. I only need to worry about the outrageous (people don't get rich by being dumb) conditions he will put on me. I have had a first call with him, after the initial no, he called me back to tell me he is going to consider it because he realises it is a clear "trade". Wish me luck Smiley
2120  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2019, 04:16:30 AM
Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

99.9%

And 50% chance to see new lows before then.

I don't care about the interin... In fact I do expect a high probability of lower lows this very same year. Especially in Q1-Q2, maybe even Q3.

99.9% is still an almost delusional high chance, don't you think?

I think 99.9 is pragmatic and conservative. Its a bull market you know.

What you can afford to lose its exactly the same number as what you can afford to buy. You can afford to lose anything you have, up to and including your life.



I would rather be dead than ruined alive. Fortunately chances are right on that sense.

We are in no fucking bull market just YET, you know that, don't you?
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