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Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin
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on: March 29, 2017, 06:22:37 AM
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My gut feeling goes with this one - but there is one thing. When you look at an image like this one it is natural to imagine that the B just goes from here to 1150 - my own prediction is that now it will slide down along the trend line from the peak 1120 to the one at 1070, it will probably break 1000 again, and stop maybe around 950, only after that long slide it will break the TL and go to 1150 to finish the B. |
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63
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Economy / Speculation / Re: BU adoption is stalled - hf is not in miners interest
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on: March 27, 2017, 12:01:08 PM
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The problem is BU signalling grows again (for the last 144 blocks is 47.8% - which is close to the level that should make people unconfortable). This might be just random fluctuations - I wish someone did the math to see what is reasonable for random distribution and what should start to worry us.
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64
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin
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on: March 27, 2017, 08:16:33 AM
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Afrikoin I have a question for you. Can you explain the reason why it is that Bitcoin's graph appears to show exponential growth and so many of these other coins have graphs that either seem like they are going up and down without any actual direction, versus graphs that show nothing and then randomly straight up and crash? I made a short paint PNG just picking a few random coins and looking at their trajectories. The Monero and NAVcoin charts appear to have a trajectory somewhat similar to Bitcoins, but Ether's looks more like Dash and MAIDSafe looks like it's just bobbing up and down without any kind of reason. Is there something inherent to Bitcoin that these other coins don't have? Can these graphs explain what it might be? Can graphs like the MAIDsafe graph tell us anything about the coin itself? Thanks for all the advice. http://prntscr.com/eoxtdnETH went through the DAO fiasco and then the split. |
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67
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Economy / Speculation / Re: BU adoption is stalled - hf is not in miners interest
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on: March 26, 2017, 07:34:18 AM
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...
in any case these are all guesses and are pointless.
And yet guesses is all we have  Everything here is speculation - it is never about anything 100% sure - because those facts are already priced in. We weight various factors, estimate the probability and speculate. The fluctuations are random - but this one persists over more than 4 days - so it does not seem so random any more. BU loses battle after battle - first they have lost developers, there were embarrassing bugs found in the BU code - then they have lost most of the exchanges who declared to list BTU as an alt - and now the indicators show that they might start losing miners. |
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68
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin
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on: March 26, 2017, 06:17:20 AM
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The H&S is now invalidated.
Why? I meant of course the H&S I drew in https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.msg18327334#msg18327334 - it is invalidated - because we are back over the neckline. Also there is a fundamental reason for the bounce now - BU signalling topped below 40% and now is declining while SegWit is growing. I believe this is not temporary - because miners must have noticed how the price reacts to BU news. BU might be in their interests long term, but only in some vague and debated way - a crash of BTC price is an immediate and unambiguous signal for them. |
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71
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Economy / Speculation / BU adoption is stalled - hf is not in miners interest
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on: March 25, 2017, 11:49:53 PM
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At https://coin.dance/blocks BU is stalled just below 40% of blocks ever since the recent crash. And there were less BU in the latest mined blocks (the last 144 blocks) than in the previous ones. Miners would be crazy to push it any further and continue this FUD pressure on the price - they feel the results in their pay. SegWit the opposite - ever since the dive the numbers grow. |
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73
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Economy / Speculation / Re: So you decide to sell now that Bitcoin is < $1000?
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on: March 25, 2017, 10:02:11 PM
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Untill just last year I have always believed that bitcoin at some point will be replaced by other coins. The longest history is not enough of advantage - after a few years it evens out. You need new features. Then I thought that TumbleBit and RootStock would add all the most needed features to bitcoin and if that is possible than other features would follow. Now I am a bit pessimistic about the chance for SegWit which would enable TumbleBit or RootStock - 95% is a very big majority, even if BU just relents, there will always be 6% of stubborn or lazy miners.
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76
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin
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on: March 25, 2017, 11:56:21 AM
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 I excluded the ETF jumps as outliers. Head and Shoulders - height 360 - landing zone 580. Perhaps it should be calculated on log scale - in that case it would be around 680 - but I am too lazy to calculate it precisely. |
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80
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Pessimist's Exponent
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on: March 23, 2017, 08:30:58 AM
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There are other ways to interpret this - if it breaks the support line - than we'll have a big correction. On a log chart this is a straight line - so many chartist will treat it as a trend line and support.
The history of other exponential fragments supports this. It is pretty silly to reject most of bitcoin history as 'outliers' - outliers are the exceptions, they cannot be the biggest part of the data.
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