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1061
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Economy / Speculation / Re: S3052 and Manipulation Techniques
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on: February 12, 2012, 03:32:19 PM
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I don't agree with the moral stance - I don't think anyone posts his predictions here before he made his move - but I do agree that the dynamics of market reactions to S3052 predictions is an interesting subject. My latest theory is that the "price supporter" reads S3052.
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1063
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Economy / Speculation / Re: I think it is safe bet to BUY bitcoins now. My speculation.
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on: February 10, 2012, 07:17:25 AM
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why dose everyone think its just one guy....
I have no idea. It seems like that would be the most unlikely scenario. But what do I know? Less than most!  I am pretty sure that the first counter rally after the first drop was made by just one guy using bots - it was too regular and too quick. The counter push after the second drop was also quite probably made by just one guy - it was also pretty regular. All the rest does not seem to be the effect of one guys actions. Of course if someone is already using bots - then he could easily hide his moves behind more randomized offers and it makes you think why he did not - but maybe this is over-calculating. |
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1064
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Economy / Speculation / Re: The Weekend Dip Myth
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on: February 10, 2012, 05:53:11 AM
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Friday, Saturday and Sunday since start of rally.
It worked on the up trend last year - then It stopped working on the down trend and it did not yet reestablish itself. |
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1065
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Uh oh
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on: February 08, 2012, 04:55:35 PM
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im so mad. i bought in at 5.62.... GRR
Feels good to buy along with the Bitcoinica gamblers, doesn’t it? Hahhaha These dips are gold gold gold gold for bitcoinica... Imagine the liquidations attached to these.. hahaha Bitcoinica, the water based bandaid on an evaporating dyke wall... Zhou announced ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=62696.msg737825#msg737825) that there was about 500BTC of forced liquidations in that - and this is quite probable for me - I don't think there will be any massive liquidations above 5. By the way anyone knows what the % hedged means on bitcoinica first page? Now it is over 140% - while it used to be between 20% and 80%. |
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1066
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Economy / Speculation / Re: 94% correction?
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on: February 08, 2012, 04:52:16 PM
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Just glancing at the daily bitcoincharts chart something like 75-90k bitcoins have been dumped today. Does somebody know something?
Not exactly - there was a dump - then someone was buying up, and now there was another dump. It all looks like someone with really big money was just playing and checking our reactions. |
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1067
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Economy / Speculation / Re: * The starfish is upon us *
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on: February 08, 2012, 04:17:26 PM
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So we are back to where we were.
How could we not be? Nothing has magically created more reserves for Bitcoinica. Well - the sell to 5.3 could be a liquidation on bitcoinica - this would free some funds there. But then it is also possible that the rally to 5.85 was fueled by those freed funds. |
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1069
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gox is goxxing?
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on: February 08, 2012, 12:42:49 PM
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The bid side increased like crazy. Almost right back to where it was previously. But it ALL went away again. I believe it is actually the BAD BIG PLAYER, the evil one (lol) attempting to make people think a huge sell just happened again if they see the ghost lines on MtGox.
I hope all this fails big time for him. This would be quite entertaining to know.
Someone sold 4K into that bid wall and it dissapeared - old story - this time it was a bit more sophisticated by using bots and small increments. |
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1070
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Economy / Speculation / Re: * The starfish is upon us *
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on: February 08, 2012, 09:40:14 AM
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I guess most of you didn't really follow the events on Bitcoinica since the "big squeeze". The starfish appears more often for a reason - Zhou slightly changed the way it works after the incident. Before that, starfish would show up only when Bitcoinica was totally out of reserves and one couldn't even liquidate his positions or withdraw USD. It was changed since then so when Bitcoinica's reserves are depleting, they halt trading in certain direction to maintain their reserves for liquidations and withdrawals. That's why we see the star more often even though it's not "dangerous" as much as it was before.
Did you try to withdraw recently? For me it was as impossible as before - I don't think Zhou has any special reserves for withdrawals now. As for reserves for liquidations of shorts - this was implemented long time before the "big squeeze". More probable for me is that people started withdrawing from bitcoinica - because they cannot use the funds there anyway. This is what im talking about.. everyone thinks its heresay, its STILL a problem.. The liquidity is a joke.. its not existent, hes too busy funding the big boys to manipulate us to mind us lil folk.. I withdrew USD as MtGox coupon twice today from Bitcoinica with no problem. I drew down my position to where there's 0 margin and all profit. No problems. Easy as pie. I don't understand why everyone doesn't use it. I did try that - it was hanging in 'pending approval' state for a few days - before I resigned and exchanged it to BTC. When exactly did you do your withdrawal? Maybe there are times when they approve them quickly. |
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1071
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Economy / Speculation / Re: * The starfish is upon us *
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on: February 07, 2012, 08:17:46 PM
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I guess most of you didn't really follow the events on Bitcoinica since the "big squeeze". The starfish appears more often for a reason - Zhou slightly changed the way it works after the incident. Before that, starfish would show up only when Bitcoinica was totally out of reserves and one couldn't even liquidate his positions or withdraw USD. It was changed since then so when Bitcoinica's reserves are depleting, they halt trading in certain direction to maintain their reserves for liquidations and withdrawals. That's why we see the star more often even though it's not "dangerous" as much as it was before.
Did you try to withdraw recently? For me it was as impossible as before - I don't think Zhou has any special reserves for withdrawals now. As for reserves for liquidations of shorts - this was implemented long time before the "big squeeze". More probable for me is that people started withdrawing from bitcoinica - because they cannot use the funds there anyway. |
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1072
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Economy / Speculation / Re: * The starfish is upon us *
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on: February 07, 2012, 03:01:17 PM
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I think that lately these starfish indicators have much more to do with the fact that Bitcoinica has serious liquidity problems. I have seen no signs of extreme bullishness recently which means that it makes absolutely no sense that there would be an avalanche of buying. The price doesn't indicate anything like that either. The market is very far from being overbought right now which means that the only plausible explanation to the starfish is that Bitcoinica simply has serious liquidity issues.
I would bet my entire bankroll that there is actually much less highly leveraged longs right now than there was before and that these starfish issues have more to do with the fact that Bitcoinica sucks, less with the fact that people "haven't learned".
Do you suggest that Zhou is slowly transferring user USDs from MtGox to a Cayman bank account? |
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1073
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Economy / Speculation / Re: You say, "Bear" ?
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on: February 07, 2012, 11:31:25 AM
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I don't know - there seems to be someone buying big - but the rallies don't carry on once the start appears back at bitcoinica.
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1074
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Economy / Speculation / Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: Do you believe the price is accurate?
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on: February 01, 2012, 02:57:45 PM
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When was the last time these magic lines worked out? The ones I remember stumbling across on this board seemed to have a failure rate of 100%.
Any reasoning as to why assume linear behavior? Isn't the "take first order lol" approach intended for infinitesimal time-steps? It would be much more persuasive if someone added an argument; preferably not "Look, it worked after all, on the 29th and 48th attempt it was almost perfect!!1"
Personally I think there are some linear phenomena on a very short scale - that is minutes or hours - because when people tend to add their orders so that they should be covered in the next swing. On the long term it is alwas about which one is more persuasive |
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1076
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Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series Analysis
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on: January 31, 2012, 03:23:05 PM
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No, what I’m saying is the buying happened AFTER the bot put up some big bids. It was definitely a bot because a) the bids were of the same size and b) the order book transformed within minutes, it was over 53k to $5 at the peak. Now it’s back to "normal". What I do not get is WTF happened thereafter. Bids withdrawn and someone sold into it? Maybe this is an attempt to get the Bitcoinica longs to leverage up more?  So you say that he bot provoked someone to buy? This can be a possible bot strategy - it leave asks and then try to push someone to buy them. When they are bought remove the bids and hope for the price to return to the base. |
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1077
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Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series Analysis
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on: January 31, 2012, 02:56:01 PM
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The upwards pressure was initiated buy a bot putting up bigger, evenly sized bit near the market price. The bids then vanished after there was some buying.
Maybe it’s one bot trying to create VOLATILITY so it can profit?
Or it’s two fighting bots. I don’t know.
I did not look very carefully - but what I've seen is that there was a strong buy up to 5.57 - with a sizeable leftover that was later moved back to 5.16. Did the bot participate in this? |
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1078
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis & other financial markets (bitcoinbullbear.com)
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on: January 31, 2012, 10:18:24 AM
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the likely outcome here: http://imageshack.us/f/688/bitcoinforum.png/we are squeezed up against the daily 200 and 50 simple moving averages at the moment and a 'BIG' break is eminent especially since the daily MACD is about to enter negative territory. Either a massive buy comes in or we are heading down and likely to the 3.8ish region. But, after that, the 3rd or C wave should take us up towards the 14-18 area. triangles are continuation patterns by nature and unfortunately the trend was going down into this triangle so the likely outcome is down. A big buy of course can change the momentum but it has to happen soon I wanted to post a similar analysis - with only one difference - breaking 4.6 would probably trigger another wave of cascading bitcoinica liquidations - so we'll probably reach the bottom pretty quickly (instead of bouncing from 4.5 first). I thought that one cascade would deleverage enough - but apparently people did not treat it seriously and bitcoinica is still nearly fully depleted of USD (last time the * was seen around 5.6 - maybe some people liquidated since then but I would not bet on that). This is the major threat that keeps me from buying back. |
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1079
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Economy / Speculation / Re: My position
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on: January 30, 2012, 08:13:37 PM
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A lot of traders think they can beat the market, even though very few will be able to do so over the long term. Staying long will be the best strategy for the vast majority.
Buying now and staying long is also about beating the market - if you speculate you are trying to beat the market by definition. There are long term risks as well - for example government crash on bitcoin, or a better solution (maybe one not using so much electricity). Now there is also a midterm risk that there will not be any more bitcoin speculators and the money in the system will only oscillate the price back and forth between two numbers. I am a little bit disappointed by the bitcoin google trends impact resulting from that 'Good Wife' episode. Maybe the mainstream adoption of bitcoin will be much slower then we imagine. Google trends tends to follow price, I have not found anything that shows me that it drives price. I treat that as coincidence - or more precisely a too way feedback loop that just happened to show only one side. And it is not exact - the episode, for example, did generate quite high peak - the popularity though did not last. The main idea is that without more popularity I don't see much chances that bitcoin will rally for an extended time period, the prices can lead for some time - but if popularity lags too much - then prices have to go down as well. No—really. If you run Pearson on it you will find the correlation peak with Google Trends following the high daily price by about three days. The correlation is not that important for me if you don't provide a mechanism how it works - because without it you'll never know when it will stop working. Also the fact that the the trends are correlated with price of three days ahead does not mean that the trends are not correlated with future prices. It is pretty obvious that popularity (which I assume is correlated with google trends) leads to more people investing in bitcoin and more money entering the system - that the opposite effect is more visible is perhaps because people who hear about such a fast growing investment tend to google it up pretty quickly (in three days perhaps) - while the path from looking it up to investing takes more time and is more variable. |
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1080
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Economy / Speculation / Re: KNIFE IMMINENT
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on: January 30, 2012, 11:33:27 AM
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IMO, bitcoin is not a good fit for a purely quantitative/technical approach.
i can agree with you here. many more things than strict technical analysis go into my decision-making. using this forum as a sentiment gauge works really well, actually. Calculus aside, what is the forum sentiment in your opinion, and how do you use this to decide on price movement in the near term? I made my position clear on that. I think we need to hit panic/despair before we get to the bottom. Since the new year rallies I would say optimism has remained pretty high. That's my impression too. There was no katharsis, so to speak, to free everyone of the fears (and liquidate that over-leveraging on bitcoinica) |
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