Bitcoin Unlimited doing good. We can make this altcoin bubble burst, just keep supporting the good stuff.  BU is bugged.  Yeah - miners thought they are in control here - but they forgot that they need devs (and exchanges also - but that is for another argument). |
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ethereum didn't fork it split.
after DAO crap, the developer come to a consensus with his whale friends (less than 5% of those who are involved with ethereum) and since they have lost money they decided to cut their losses by doing a roll back and since the other 95% weren't even involved in this, obviously after the "roll back fork" a very large percentage remained on the old chain and called themselves classic.
it had nothing to do with either forking nor ETH being experimental!
So what is a fork and what is a split? In eth we now have two incompatible branches in the blockchain - isn't that a fork?
As to how probable is the immediate danger of a BU fork - I have no idea.
the way I see it is that there is no danger of a BU fork. the danger is in forking without consensus. if miners don't want BU, and if nodes don't want BU then the fork is dangerous and from what I have read, nobody wants that. Yeah - consensus is the greatest factor - this is illustrated by the 11/12 March 2013 HF - quick crash on uncertainty and quick recovery when it was obvious that everyone is on the same branch. If we have a fork without consensus the resulting chaos will repel investors. I don't think it is all about miners. Developers have also something to say and who will get the name BTC (and this will be central in this battle) will be decided by the exchanges. |
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To be honest the miners would be crazy to try it out - the'd lose so much. But watching how the debates escalate does not bring much confidence in the maturity of all participants.
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A hard fork will happen sooner or later so let's prepare our trading strategies for it. What would be the impact of HF on the price? How probable is the BU hard fork? As to the first question - I think the impact will be huge - much bigger than the impact was at the ETH/ETC split, because ETH was much more experimental at the point of the split so people were prepared for weird stuff going on. But also because ETH had the means to stop transaction replay from one fork to the other - and that can really bring much chaos into the network. It works this way - let's say you have some old BTC which after the fork becomes a pair BTC+BTCBU, you pay for something with BTCBU - and then the receiver of your funds replays your payment on the BTC network to get your BTC as well. As far as I know ETH because of the rich programming environment had ways to stop this - but BTC does not. In the case of ETH/ETC split there was such a strong consensus that there was practically no battle about who gets the name Ethereum - but if for example the Chinese miners make a BU fork - than this will not be so simple. The longer the battle the more price impact. The 11/12 March 2013 HF  It was very quick to resolve - one branch was just abandoned - so the impact was very short lived. As to how probable is the immediate danger of a BU fork - I have no idea. Update: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/antpool-founder-will-switch-entire-pool-bitcoin-unlimited/ |
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The simplest explanation for the delays is that the matching algo at kraken is crap - probably O(n^2). We have seen it at MtGox, on big load it was just stuck (one time it was stuck I think for more than an hour).
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Even better strategy would be to sell BTC for the inevitable crash after the fork and then buy it back.
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Some people when making mistakes in trading just cannot believe that it was their fault - so they invent some hidden evil forces to blame them. In 2011 it was always The Manipulator who was responsible for their mistakes, now the stories get more complex.
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Doesn't Tumble Bit require SegWit?
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I lived it my friend. It went 300 percent in one day and came back to earth again. You're looking at historical charts that don't show any detail for the trading day - only daily closes.
What do you want an affidavit?
You are wrong - it shows also intraday highs and lows - it is called wicks. Your have false memories my friend. It might make 300 percent around the time when pizza was bought for 1200BTC - but ever since it broke $1 it never did something even close to that. I'm not going senile yet. I lived it. Too bad you missed it and have to rely on some flawed historical data. I wish I had taken a screen shot or two... I was busy talking to a buddy on the phone about it as it went down. And yet - have a look at this Cavirtex chart:  this is 10th of April 2013. Have a read on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_memory |
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because selling you give more chance to buy back more coins, while buying not, besides hoping for a better shorting in the future this make shorting more attractive always, over "longing", but it's not always like that, we had many big pump that surpassed the fast dump I have noticed BTC while overall goes up, in say a run up, it seems to drop really fast....why is this in your opinion?
EVERYONE is trying to get out of their position at the same time when the price begins to drop which exerts yuuuuge downward pressure on the value. The first time I put money on an exchange to buy Bitcoin, the price began to rise from ~$70 at 9 am and by 11am it was around $270 - scared the shif out of me so I went to bed ( I was working night shift anyway) and when I awoke in the afternoon, it was back down to around $90 again. True story (though the numbers may not be exact). The rise was actually much quicker than the drop though the whole episode took less than a day. Bitcoin never appreciated 300% in 2 hours. are you sure about 2013? the pump made bitcoin $1200 in two weeks Yes 100% positive it was 2013! My cash deposit into CaVirtex was confirmed April 10, 2013, 7:38 a.m. It was my first attempt to buy BTC for the purchase of an ASIC Bitcoin miner. The morning I tried (which I believe was the same morning I found out my cash deposit was confirmed), I placed buy orders up to $90 but I kept missing the price - thought I didn't know how an exchange worked - and then I sat and watched in horror until the price was $270! I really thought I would never get any Bitcoin after seeing that. The problem with looking at those historical graphs is that you only see the daily close (or maybe the daily average). On the day I'm speaking of, it went up and down within hours. I'll see if I can find more detail for April 10th - CaVirtex is gone now - sold out another entity and now it's part of Kraken - so I'm not sure I can find any records of my attempts to buy. Come on. April 10 was the peak of the first bubble in 2013 - it is well remembered. It indeed dropped from 265 to about 100 in about 8 hours (still far from 260 to 70 in 2 hours) - but it started that day from above 220 and the day before from above 170 (maybe you confused 170 with 70 and days with hours?). |
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I have noticed BTC while overall goes up, in say a run up, it seems to drop really fast....why is this in your opinion?
EVERYONE is trying to get out of their position at the same time when the price begins to drop which exerts yuuuuge downward pressure on the value. The first time I put money on an exchange to buy Bitcoin, the price began to rise from ~$70 at 9 am and by 11am it was around $270 - scared the shif out of me so I went to bed ( I was working night shift anyway) and when I awoke in the afternoon, it was back down to around $90 again. True story (though the numbers may not be exact). The rise was actually much quicker than the drop though the whole episode took less than a day. Bitcoin never appreciated 300% in 2 hours. This is how it broke $70 the first time. And this is when it was breaking it a few more times. I lived it my friend. It went 300 percent in one day and came back to earth again. You're looking at historical charts that don't show any detail for the trading day - only daily closes. What do you want an affidavit? You are wrong - it shows also intraday highs and lows - it is called wicks. Your have false memories my friend. It might make 300 percent around the time when pizza was bought for 1200BTC - but ever since it broke $1 it never did something even close to that. |
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because selling you give more chance to buy back more coins, while buying not, besides hoping for a better shorting in the future this make shorting more attractive always, over "longing", but it's not always like that, we had many big pump that surpassed the fast dump I have noticed BTC while overall goes up, in say a run up, it seems to drop really fast....why is this in your opinion?
EVERYONE is trying to get out of their position at the same time when the price begins to drop which exerts yuuuuge downward pressure on the value. The first time I put money on an exchange to buy Bitcoin, the price began to rise from ~$70 at 9 am and by 11am it was around $270 - scared the shif out of me so I went to bed ( I was working night shift anyway) and when I awoke in the afternoon, it was back down to around $90 again. True story (though the numbers may not be exact). The rise was actually much quicker than the drop though the whole episode took less than a day. Bitcoin never appreciated 300% in 2 hours. are you sure about 2013? the pump made bitcoin $1200 in two weeks  Not even close. Max less than 50% - and that is on daily. |
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I have noticed BTC while overall goes up, in say a run up, it seems to drop really fast....why is this in your opinion?
EVERYONE is trying to get out of their position at the same time when the price begins to drop which exerts yuuuuge downward pressure on the value. The first time I put money on an exchange to buy Bitcoin, the price began to rise from ~$70 at 9 am and by 11am it was around $270 - scared the shif out of me so I went to bed ( I was working night shift anyway) and when I awoke in the afternoon, it was back down to around $90 again. True story (though the numbers may not be exact). The rise was actually much quicker than the drop though the whole episode took less than a day. Bitcoin never appreciated 300% in 2 hours.  This is how it broke $70 the first time.  And this is when it was breaking it a few more times. |
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Because when people buy they are cautious - but when they are in profit they sell it quickly to lock it in. This happens on up trends.
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You think a bull run is coming?
We've been in a bull run for months now, punctuated only by a few short-lived panic dips caused mainly by PBOC shenanigans.
I see no reason for this bull run not to continue.
This! It grew over 400% percent over just above a year. To beat this we need to reach $5000 now. |
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Looks like range trading for now - about 1200 sell, about 1100 buy. But that's only temporary for sure. Either there is another PBoC announcement to drive it down - or it will break up.
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Just sold my trading stash. Price is climbing too fast. Short positions prepared at 1140 USD. Lots of them...
The question is - is this bullish or bearish? Many ask bear predictions were bullish - I guess he does not try to talk his book when the prices go his way anyway - but some were right. I wish someone made a statistics. |
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The Chinese volumes were an effect of: first no fees - this has changed, second bots used for inflating the volume - this should also be over as this was required by the authorities, third possibly by completely fake numbers generated by the exchanges - this should also be over as required by the authorities. This is well established now and it is a good explanation - that's why nobody asked Bobby Lee about it. No withdrawals can add to diminishing the volume even further - but it is not the primary reason - you are right there.
No fees policy would not influence the volume in this order of magnitude. If you take a look at the graph, it's almost 450x lower volume then before, that's 45000% lower than before. I don't know about what type of bots are you talking about, if you are talking about trading bots there is still an evidence that they are still there, because exchanges are moving synchronously to CNY exchanges or vice versa. The bots I was writing about were about inflating the volume - that was their purpose. Iindividual traders had incentives to have big volume trading (lower fees on withdrawals or something) - so they used bots to trade between accounts that they control. This can easily explain 450x or whatever other number more volume - because there is no limit and no price to how much you can trade between yourself. |
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The Chinese volumes were an effect of: first no fees - this has changed, second bots used for inflating the volume - this should also be over as this was required by the authorities, third possibly by completely fake numbers generated by the exchanges - this should also be over as required by the authorities. This is well established now and it is a good explanation - that's why nobody asked Bobby Lee about it. No withdrawals can add to diminishing the volume even further - but it is not the primary reason - you are right there.
No fees policy would not influence the volume in this order of magnitude. If you take a look at the graph, it's almost 450x lower volume then before, that's 45000% lower than before. I don't know about what type of bots are you talking about, if you are talking about trading bots there is still an evidence that they are still there, because exchanges are moving synchronously to CNY exchanges or vice versa. The bots I was writing about were about inflating the volume - that was their purpose. Iindividual traders had incentives to have big volume trading (lower fees on withdrawals or something) - so they used bots to trade between to accounts that they control. This can easily explain 450x or whatever other number more volume - because there is no limit and no price to how much you can trade between yourself. |
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I mean, as soon as PBOC started their investigation Chinese Bitcoin Exchanges turned off their fake volume engine
We are not just talking about fake volume, fake volume == fake price == bad reputation == another Gox.
We all followed what Chinese Exchanges was doing because of their volume, they were No.1, BTC/USD volume could not be even seen on the pie chart compared to BTC/CNY volume.
Did anyone asked Bobby Lee yesterday during his AMA on Reddit about this volume issue?
I mean there is no logic that halted withdrawals could influence volume at this magnitude, just look at the photo below.
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The Chinese volumes were an effect of: first no fees - this has changed, second bots used for inflating the volume - this should also be over as this was required by the authorities, third possibly by completely fake numbers generated by the exchanges - this should also be over as required by the authorities. This is well established now and it is a good explanation - that's why nobody asked Bobby Lee about it. No withdrawals can add to diminishing the volume even further - but it is not the primary reason - you are right there. |
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