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Sounds like pirate - isn't he back?
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http://www.finalternatives.com/node/23100the fund is less a hedge fund and more a vehicle that allows institutional investors to invest in bitcoins. The fund simply buys the peer-to-peer crypto-currency, arguing that its value will increase as more and more people use it.
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The issue is not solved IMO. Simply orphan the fork and keep the default block size limit isnt a fix. We need to come up with a prevention system to put the whole thing in safe mode when this happens again.
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That one is easy - merchants should look for forks - and then stop accepting payments. Sure there can be forks that are not visible for them - but this is taken into account in the design by waiting for the x amount of confirmations. |
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This is a trivial consequence of the blockchain fork - I think it should be already accounted for in the dip last night, but who knows. I believe nobody will cry when OKPAY reverses the transaction in their system. Overall I think it all was handled much better then I would expect for such an event - but yeah - some merchants might be burned if they were not alert and cannot reverse the payments, so it might get some additional attention. MtGox stopped accepting transfers pretty quickly I think.
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So you say that when people buy and sell much then the price moves? Shocking! |
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It is evacuated to 49.98 - looks like it's a fake.
Well, i'm surprised.  I am a bit - there is not much probability that it would be bought in one chunk - and a failed attack would only generate additional profit for the wall keeper as it would bounce deeply. |
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What do you guys think about the evacuation of that big wall from 48.20 to 49.98?
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It is evacuated to 49.98 - looks like it's a fake.
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if it keeps going up it will be unheard of in history of markets
Because of what? There is no shortage of bubbles (or however you call it) in the history of markets. They all have corrections - and the point is that you never know where in the cycle you are. Personally I am betting that this is just the beginning. it seems a lot of us are expecting some kind of correction. Does that mean the market is going to run the opposite way?
i'm not expecting correction, i'm expecting crash to where its all started Aha - why? Last time in 2011 it did not crash to where it started - why now? |
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Yeah what's up with the "technology" oriented sites? Wired... Slashdot... Is it some kind of psychological complex that their contributors have? Or is it all about the extra money they're trying to get by manipulating their audiences?
The optimists and gamblers from Slashdot bought in November 2010 - the rest is envious. I guess it is always a small percentage of the audience that buys in - so the rest is always much bigger crowd - I am afraid this will happen again and again. |
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By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)
In bitcoin everyone can be an early adopter! There was the same talk in 2011 - and then voila - all the envious people could buy their coins at 2$. I guess it was the same when bitcoin broke 1$. People don't understand how crazy it felt back then - I read about it in Jun 2010 ( http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/bitcoin-p2p-cryptocurrency-now-in-public-beta/2010/06/16) - and I thought - "interesting idea - I'll need to have a look in a few years when it starts to get traction". Then a fried started mailing me about it - and I thought - hmm maybe there is something - I'll invest in it - but first I need to read the white paper. And then there was the slashdot effect and bitcoin was suddenly above 1$ and I still did not even know if the crypto is sound, but apparently people invested in it thousands - so they must have analyzed the paper right? But I still wanted to read the paper myself. And then buying - you send your hard earned money to guys that run a Magic the Gathering (what the fuck?) card exchange site. I would not do it, it was crazy as shit - but just by chance I had something like occasion and I bought - my girlfriend did not even want to talk about it - "yeah - you just sent our vacations to some crazy guy!". So what's so bad? If you have held until now, it's going to be way more profitable than putting your money into banks, whatever way you look at it. Well - I never complained. I sold during the crash and bought back around 4 with some left-over money. Overall crazy profitable. |
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By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)
In bitcoin everyone can be an early adopter! There was the same talk in 2011 - and then voila - all the envious people could buy their coins at 2$. I guess it was the same when bitcoin broke 1$. People don't understand how crazy it felt back then - I read about it in Jun 2010 ( http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/bitcoin-p2p-cryptocurrency-now-in-public-beta/2010/06/16) - and I thought - "interesting idea - I'll need to have a look in a few years when it starts to get traction". Then a fried started mailing me about it - and I thought - hmm maybe there is something - I'll invest in it - but first I need to read the white paper. And then there was the slashdot effect and bitcoin was suddenly above 1$ and I still did not even know if the crypto is sound, but apparently people invested in it thousands - so they must have analyzed the paper right? But I still wanted to read the paper myself. And then buying - you send your hard earned money to guys that run a Magic the Gathering (what the fuck?) card exchange site. I would not do it, it was crazy as shit - but just by chance I had something like occasion and I bought - my girlfriend did not even want to talk about it - "yeah - you just sent our vacations to some crazy guy!". |
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Even though there is a possibility of a larger correction right now, I'm starting to favor the scenario that this is simply a temporary speedbump. If this is all we get this weekend, well, then bulls will retain control next week. I'd say I'm approximately 65% for the latter scenario and 35% for the former, which is quite different from yesterday.
R U reading my thoughts or the other way round..? Instead of giving odds right now, I would wait over the weekend. If there is no selloff before Monday, the crash is over. If there is, it will be an interim correction taking us to $30 for weeks. I would say $40 is the magic number to watch. Go below, there'll be a rout. Currently creeping up towards $45 looks pretty but is low, low volume and still dangerous. its low compared to a few epic days we've had lately, but not compared to what has been normal the last few months. Nearly all of the volume seems to be made up of buys as well. Usually if there will be a significant dip for the weekend, it will have already happened on thursday or earlier. By now I expect we will inch along until Monday and continue back up again. The TA people and nervous hands cant quite believe that the price will go higher, so let them sell if they want. It will just move into stronger hands next week. I made the bet in my sig that we would hit 50 this year in January, but at this rate it would be quite unreasonable I think to NOT see 100. During past crashes, the bears would launch a second wave of attack usually 12-24 hours after the first bottom, and that's what made them crashes. This time they did not, a plausible explanation would have been to wait for the weekend so as to maximally exploit the "weekend dip" effect, which apparently hasn't happened. It usually happens on Sunday or Monday - but yeah - I have the feeling that this time people just won't sell - too much good news lately. |
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Agreed. I got in early. Not quite $1 early, but after the first rise and fall. Now granted, I figure I'm doing alright with mining but yeah, if I had the capital back then to buy up a bunch of coins at $2, or $5, etc., I'd be more than happy. But then again that's the risk we all take to an extent and I could imagine it being quite painful to have fully sold all coins at a (then) high price. But who's to say the same isn't true today? I'm happy the price is this high but if you're confident it's going to go far far above this, it's always time to buy.
It's a chicken-and-egg problem, if the early adopters had mined a hell load of coins and hoarded and refused to sell, the economy around bitcoin would not have developed, the price would have been nowhere near what it is now, to get people to join, they must redistributed the coins by selling them, (they may have done it involuntarily, we are all pawns of the invisible hand after all) eventually the free market will make things fair, that's why the unfair advantage of early adopters theory is a myth. In Bitcoin everyone can be an early adopter! |
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The most similarity is between the current run up:  it starts from around 12 and gets to 49 - that is 4x growth. and the one to 15:  starts from around 5 and gets to 15 - 3x growth. The first crash from 15 gets to 10 starts between Thursday and Friday - that is half of the growth and has 220K volume, the second three days later gets to 7.5 that is half of the rest of the growth. We had just one crash from 49 to 33, started between Wednesday and Thursday, with a bit less then half of the growth and less volume (only 150K). And that still does not mean anything. |
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IMO it will go down to 41 in Sunday
If it breakd 41 then it will make a head and shoulder with target 38, once there it will probably go further down to test 32 again. |
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And here:  and here:  but actually also here:  And the current one - for comparison:  One interesting point - in all these cases, and your too, the dip started around Thursday (Thursday or night before or after:) Unfortunately - pretty inconclusive. |
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Same thing as in 2011 - google trends follow the price. I do take them into account - but as a kind of confirmation - not as a leading indicator.
Here's your confirmation then. Remeber that in July 2011 the confirmation was also there - but you needed 2 years for it to get hold. |
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 At your own risk. Same thing as in 2011 - google trends follow the price. I do take them into account - but as a kind of confirmation - not as a leading indicator. |
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Yeah - maybe I formulated it the wrong way. At what price would a 'dead cat bounce' be improbable? I've heard the usual retrace for a dead cat is 80% isn't it? So it was around 45 - broken, but not definitively.
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