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1101  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 07, 2013, 03:14:57 AM
We might be in the early phases of the slow long slide.

Early phases? We are in the slide for few weeks now. Slide of pain and broken hopes, and lower highs Tongue

I am talking about months here, if it happens.

I am talking about months as well. I'm just saying that it looks like we are in the process of it. 160$, 140$, 130$... will 120$ be our next high that won't be broken until next bubble? Perhaps not, but I feel we are in the slide.

well since crash in april lowest lows were 60$, around 90$, 110$ and shortly back to 106$ if i recall correctly (could be wrong, just reading vaguely the charts)
and we have very low volumes since then. so yea everyhings just getting narrow.

edit: by the way we haven't seen double digits for a month now.

 
1102  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Great Misconception on: June 07, 2013, 02:57:39 AM
That's bull, fiat value has not went down that much.

Perhaps not, but it's a lot



when was dollar detached from backup by gold standard?
1103  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 07, 2013, 02:33:43 AM
I do not know what you mean by "people like me". I belive in holding bitcoin, but I believe it's only use beside silkroad is holding so that it can be exchanged later for much much more than it could have on the day of buy.

I don't know where you're living I'm relatively sure you're not affected by ongoing crisis in any way,
don't have relatives that were scammed by banks, didn't get your bank account seized or haven't even thought about the flaws of a centralized currency in combination with a f***ed up financial system.

just keep on seeing the whole thing as some highrisk investment with real good profits perhaps you will realize the other side of the coin in the future.


UK, graduating in few weeks, not affected one bit, you are right in that.

sorry for my rant, but in my state right now i couldn't understand how i registered two weeks before you considering myself a total newbie,
and suddenly feel like an oldtimer just reading your comment.
well...in the end everybody sees something different in bitcoin, and she does whatever the f*** she wants.
(most convincing thing for me that btc is up to something is reading this forum with many people contributing interesting theories and realizing new projects
while a lot of speculators stand at the side riding the waves and applauding the show)

perhaps i just got sick of being around advertising agencies and watching the big guys playing games with their customers for the last four years.
at some point i think that your fiat can behave like a vote for the right and fair business idea.
(but there is still somebody profiting in either way by printing/controlling/transmitting the fiat)
then there's still a corrupt financial system that profits in so much ways just from monopolizing moneyflow and lobbying governments creating laws in its interest.

so if i have the possiblity to vote for or against a system with the currency i use (even if it's just a small part of my wealth), I love to do that.
I'm not all in, I just see it as a support for an idea that could perhaps bring some better solution to a system that is built on decades to decades of debts crashing from time to time during a century.
(while the big game goes on and common people falling by the wayside and are f****ed up for at least one or more generations and can only stumble along in the ratrace retrying to get some decent wealth)

...back in the flow...Smiley


loved that one

back to topic...
...perhaps a nice test at 115$ over night, dump induced panic sells in the morning and see you again around 115 -120$ tomorrow evening (or one day later).
(whole market feels slow-mo and higly volatile with everybody waiting for regulation signals,low volume and some big guys shaking the trees for little profit from time to time or miners needing cash)

sorry again and I will stick to sober posting in the future (but please don't quote me on that Wink)
1104  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 07, 2013, 12:49:03 AM
Really, this is an exciting place to be. Taking part in the largest social experiment the world has ever known is huge. Maybe that makes BTC sound cheap as it will live on in many forms regardless
of what the government does, so the experimental part is the immediate part.

Common.......
It's people like you , bitcoin religious zealots that make me worry about future of bitcoin..
Largest ..... give me please some numbers and stop spreading you know what around.
so I'm a little bit too late to the discussion,
but i still have to post this.

don't want to sound like a jibberish crazy btc evangelist but if you watch the history of the world over the last two hundred years, real progress was always pushed by genious inventions by single people or small groups (if it's electricity, phone, car, plane, computers, internet etc.)
And everytime people went nuts in the first years after (well today more like 3-5 years by much faster  progress) and couldn't wrap their head around what the f*** they're looking at. They just knew it kinda led into the future.
But in those older times economy wasn't like today. At those times inventions rised through small local supporters with cash.
Now with big companys dictating the people to what stuff they have to adapt to has slowed down the rise of epoch-making inventions because profit is even more or at least half as important as innovation.

Only real innovations in the last years were imo completely virtual (software, social interaction etc.,), so the web is kind of keeping the old spirit alive as a playground of genious people being able to do fantastic stuff with small budget
and of which is mostly not profit-orientated in the beginning (at least until adaptation grows).
(sounds like a much better thinktank than any bigtime company with thousands of people that have to justify their inventions with marketing strategies.
bitcoin as a code wasn't developed on profit in its own sense and it's suddenly there and people try to integrate it in their world although they don't even have a clue in what ways it could be usable in the future.
sorry if that's too theoretical for this wallthread, but after watching some short docu about people on an island trading their sea shells for services and goods,
i adapted that to a globally connected society over the web and began to be fascinated.

it's just logical after being conditioned to fiat as soon as you're born it takes some time for more people
to branch some new connections in their brain.
the nearest reaction for integration of btc is to treat it like some investment and hold it like a commodity,
because there isn't a real btc market to cover their everday needs.

if somebody found gold in the USA in the old days, first they started mining it, by that more cash was flushed into the mining operations,
the profit had to be spend by local workers around that hole so soon a small economy is growing and we have a mining town.

with btc starting completely virtual, only connection to real world economy was mining operation and fiat (via exchanges).
next phase where we are present now imo is virtual market growth (use in virtual market still feels like a currency of a small community (with few market sectors) in the real world)
nearest usage for btc (as long as there were no laws for it) were in marketsectors where it's important to do anonymous transactions like drugdealing, other illegal services and money laundering
(that will be regulated at some point in the future so that at least regular john doe consumer guy can't figure out how to do it, like with fiat Smiley).

usage as a virtual currency for virtual services (eg. for music, movies, e-books, cloudstorage etc.) is the logical step which will branch out more and more connections to realworld market.
(every vendor on the net would be happy to get cash via such fast transactions)
big companies would only be interested if it promises gain in profit.
(just look at amazoncoin, right now they see it just as possiblity to get dependancy of customers.
for them it's theoretically holding shares of their customers. market the other way around. really nice strategy)
so btc has to create its own economy until the market share becomes so big that these companies can't ignore the spending capacity anymore.
everything has to go step by step, first the code, then the mining, then some cash
and now its time for new marketsectors to catch up and someday we will be ready to stem the big guys,

so these are just some thoughts on my virtual sea shells. (when i put my ear near my wallet i can hear the numbers whispering Smiley)

ah yea and

I do not know what you mean by "people like me". I belive in holding bitcoin, but I believe it's only use beside silkroad is holding so that it can be exchanged later for much much more than it could have on the day of buy.

I don't know where you're living I'm relatively sure you're not affected by ongoing crisis in any way,
don't have relatives that were scammed by banks, didn't get your bank account seized or haven't even thought about the flaws of a centralized currency in combination with a f***ed up financial system.

just keep on seeing the whole thing as some highrisk investment with real good profits perhaps you will realize the other side of the coin in the future.

kay should stop babbling...(one beer too much)
perhaps I throw out some monologue about decentralisation of currency in some hours Wink
....
on with the show

1105  Economy / Auctions / Re: AMD 7950 - almost new (used without overclocking for a few weeks) on: June 06, 2013, 09:15:48 PM
yeaperhaps your'reright.
my card broke one week ago, your're card would still cost 2.7 btc in germany.
So something around 2.1 btc for nearly new card with shipping would still be good price imo.
well perhaps I'm kinda panic reacting because I want to keep rendering some private stuff,
it just sucks to have a card burnout after half a year on my renderstation and I can't reclaim warranty because I installed new cooler. (I'll try anyway but I don't think it gets through)
Don't want to spend full price again and it would be good possiblity to trade some coins instead of just holding them.
but the more i think about it i would have to buy new cooler (i need it silent Smiley) and wanted to get a completely new rig in half a year.
Yea perhaps I'll wait some time.
Sorry for yipyap and good luck with the auction
1106  Economy / Auctions / Re: AMD 7950 - almost new (used without overclocking for a few weeks) on: June 06, 2013, 07:11:27 PM
jup I'm interested

how much for shipping to germany?
1107  Economy / Auctions / Re: [WTS] Sapphire Radeon 7950 on: June 06, 2013, 06:35:55 PM
I would be interested too.
Nice coincidence, my graphicscard hit the road last week,
now I'm searching for a new one.
I don't know too much about mining would just use it for a renderstation in my room.
Does the graphiccard suffer hard from mining process (just want to be shure I don't buy another graphicscard that fails after a year)?
how much would be entry price?
and how much for shipping to germany?
1108  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 04, 2013, 10:08:03 PM

yea what's coming?
1109  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 04, 2013, 08:53:45 PM
And it's closure had nothing to do with affiliation to the notorious Liberty reserve and ability to withdraw funds from the same? All the same, these are centralised enterprises. Bitcoin is run from private computers, the people, all over the world.
Of course, but you can't ignore the effect exchanges currently have on bitcoin.

Well, sure but this is mostly FUD saturated, nervous speculators which affect the price so much. I still have all my Bitcoins, a good 10% of my net-worth and not planning to sell them during these growing pains of the currency. This new attention is likely the apparent threat to the USD that cryptocurrency represents.

Once all the negative news tails off, I fully expect a breakout in price and volume transition to whichever exchanges or 'trading station's that are left. Seriously though, if the US gov was going to shutdown MTGox, they would of done it already. Everyone just needs to chillout and enjoy the gravy train.
Why did they wait 2 years to shut down liberty reserve? It takes time to build a case.

imo it started in may with the case of some guys cashing out 2.8 Mio $ alone in New York on one day and 45 Mio $ worldwide over last three years.
and now some weeks later following that trace they bust LR - which they must have watched for quite some time - transferring more than 6 Bio $ for criminals over the last years.

the criminal organisations worldwide adapted to virtual currencies much faster than the governments (as they are always one step ahead).
only possibility for the gov to keep up with the whole coinmania is to check the flow over the exchanges as they did with LR.

noobquestion: could you trace  the flow of single bitcoins transferred from wallet to wallet back to an exchange account where it was purchased in the first place?
(because if police get hands on some wallets during a razzia they then could check who purchased it in the first place)

well criminals will search for alternatives, if I were them I'd trade or even open some exchange now myself (with easily fakeable accounts) in a country with weak lawsystem and much corruption.
i wonder which coin will be the first? (that is one huge market gap for some BADcoin or BlackCoin) edit: Gcoin sounds much better

this is hyper-bullish-tinfoil-news Cheesy
1110  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 03, 2013, 01:36:46 AM

so if they can't get get the miners they go for the mining rig producers, introducing fees or something?
(I'm still sure US gov not just wants more regulation but at least a small part of the cake too, they won't let that pot of btc just stand there and look how it's growing and devaluing their fiat)

Who knows ...
It's obviously very unclear at the moment and they are making it up as they go along. But IF they decide miners are 'money- transmitters' and need a license, then there is a very weak link in the chain of anonymity, and that is the producers.
Much the same as the exchanges ...
Time will tell
I certainly don't have the answer


jup we will see.
if i compare it to mining gold, there are the big companys (with licences) digging in huge mines and there are the single individuals nibbling in their own hole or fishing around in some rivers (without need of license).
So at least licensing for mining pools or fee per mining-rig could come up the table.
whatever is happening at the exchanges right now...adaptation progress is good symbol
(integrate und regulate at least the production before that becomes a problem)
1111  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 03, 2013, 01:07:03 AM
FinCEN Ruling Requested for Bitcoin Mining?

http://www.thebitcoinchannel.com/archives/10491

Seems to be quite complex stuff. Maybe that is the reason for the drop?
very interesting
so do I get the meanings of that article right (It's late, I'm half awake right now Smiley):

Somebody who's mining btc and selling them via exchange is a money transmitter?

-> means that any miner (or at least mining pool) in US would need a license for that?

(if that's the case it would be a good strategy for US government to grab the bull by the balls and not by the horns)


It might look that way, but a miner who mines over an encrypted connection and sells the coins via in-person or on the web OTC - times several thousand - would be hard to grab by the balls. The only surefire way to do it is to attempt to fill OTC markets with federal agents, or start a "report your neighbour for bitcoin mining" program. Very expensive. Politically risky. Print more dollars to pay for it? Going after bitcoin like this would be SURE to jumpstart rapid-fire adoption.

Think of it like trying to go after individual bittorrent users; I know there are a lot more of those, but they don't even TRY for privacy. Bitcoin miners tend to know a little more about what they are doing. Catching thousands of miners who make a concerted effort to remain pseudonymous will take a LOT of money and man-hours. I'm not saying miners do this now (most don't) but if push came to shove... well, there's a profit to be had so they would make some changes. And, yes, a few of the lazy miners will get a friendly knock on the door from a federal marshal.

Much easier to just 'ask' those selling ASICs for a list of customers ...

so if they can't get get the miners they go for the mining rig producers, introducing fees or something?
(I'm still sure US gov not just wants more regulation but at least a small part of the cake too, they won't let that pot of btc just stand there and look how it's growing and devaluing their fiat)
1112  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 03, 2013, 12:39:22 AM
FinCEN Ruling Requested for Bitcoin Mining?

http://www.thebitcoinchannel.com/archives/10491

Seems to be quite complex stuff. Maybe that is the reason for the drop?
very interesting
so do I get the meanings of that article right (It's late, I'm half awake right now Smiley):

Somebody who's mining btc and selling them via exchange is a money transmitter?

-> means that any miner (or at least mining pool) in US would need a license for that?

(if that's the case it would be a good strategy for US government to grab the bull by the balls and not by the horns)
1113  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 02, 2013, 02:24:46 AM
Yes, a lot of weird people are buying now. You didn't sell? I did, and I'm from Slovenia. I didn't know that even more screwed up countries exist. Where are you from (some part of Balkan I guess or America)?

bitcodo, Is there widespread recognition of Bitcoin in Slovenia? Are people considering it a safety net in case a Cyprus-like bail-in situation happens to Slovenian banks?

from what i read on european news i have the impression that people in slovenia will have more time to safe their money from bail-ins than in cyprus (which they made an example of and where the bail-in came really fast)
It looks like european commission is playing on time so we'll see if people there prefer other options over btc.
One thing to mention in this case is definitively that bitstamp bank is Unicredit banka Slovenija (slovenian branch from italian UniCredit).
(perhaps most of you know this - i didn't because I don't use bitstamp, just gox and some domestic ones)
that could get interesting in a possible bail-in situation
1114  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 02, 2013, 01:20:00 AM
Volume isn't just lower compared to post-crash, but also before that:

That's probably because of the recent incidents with regulations. Many people are waiting until that is cleared up before they can confidently trade again on Gox. Until then the volume will stay extremely low, with short increases in volume during price changes.

Wishful thinking, bull.

A more likely scenario is that speculators consider the price too high (potential reward greatly outweighed by risk at the moment), stubborn miners in a more competitive environment are holding positions, stubborn sellers are not willing to go lower than their entry point and there is a much reduced flow of money into Gox for numerous reasons, including potential new investors sitting on the sidelines viewing a stagnant price and considering the likely weaker returns. Doubful that the regulations are primarily responsible for widespread panic or reluctance to buy in. It is true that the regulations make it more difficult to get money into Gox, but generally only for the criminal-minded. If you have nothing to hide, it is still easy to transfer money, for example via wire.

I would entertain the possibility that recent regulations have scared away a small minority of criminals who were using bitcoin for money laundering. If this minority was responsible for most of the previous volume and are now absent, then I'd bet on a long, drawn-out downturn.
Smiley thread getting quiet again so i add my two cents:

I think money laundering is still very easy despite coming regulations and with everything around bitcoin adapting/growing more and more I can't see any long downturn (It's like to foresee a long downturn because silkroad is put down for some months). Governments must figure out a way to integrate digital currencies into their financial and lawsystem.
As always that takes quite some time and even then they won't get a complete hold of it. (I mean they still haven't completely figured that prevention of launderying out with fiat how will they succeed doing that with btc???)
Imo the low volume is because we're still in the situation with an oversold market. Too many bears have sold around 120$ in the last weeks and can't believe it's still not going down despite FR news and they don't want to buy in at loss.
Low volumes would logically just put marketaction away from daytrading into another timezone with speculators selling/buying and holding fiat/btc in longer timespans until next big swings they can hop onto.
so everything went to slow-motion.
I awaited bigger selloff around 135$ some days ago (which came) but it didn't push all the way down. So with wallzilla in mind i would say we could scratch 140$ soon and settle between 130-140$ next week with some up and downswings.
Don't know what happens if wallzilla is away again but there wasn't much movement before it appeared so I really can't imagine going under 120$ for next week (perhaps a little nibbling as we haven't tested it before.
You never know...one little news flick and shorttime panicmode is on again.

So I'm no expert but watching the progress of may altogether things look quite good. Everything began with big dump, followed by small dumping and no serious panicsells with FR news, we now finished that month with more than 30% plus since dobledigitdisaster and haven't returned there once.
I'm longterm bull so I always look at longer timespans...
.....only thing I just don't trust is that wall (it feels securing and frightening at the same time Smiley).

1115  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 01, 2013, 10:37:10 PM
it's good to see that there are more people thinking about buying.
i started holding back some weeks ago just to see where things are heading
and now I'm sitting on fresh cash and watch wallzilla playing games with my brain
Shit what you want?...will that white knight be there next week or is it just a big pumpndumppuppy by some bad bear?
sigh...
perhaps i invest some btc in more tinfoil instead...
1116  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 15, 2013, 02:16:56 AM
that really seems to me like a message from Homeland security to the community as it's happening right before the conference in california.
Feels like a drug raid during a hemp parade when everything's legal (or not, i still don't understand the command structure of USA with state law and federal law).
well if they keep on with these procedures it will push btc even harder with more exchanges on some small island states or similar tax haven countries, like with the bank accounts of onlinegambling.
from my perspective either way acceptance or interference will bring good days to bitcoin.
1117  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 15, 2013, 01:43:31 AM
Dwolla has been issued a seizure warrant. This means MtGox's Dwolla account and the funds held in that account have been seized until the investigation is concluded. This does not mean they will get those funds back. That will be determined by the outcome of the investigation.

Mt.Gox is most likely a target for several factors. 1. The fact that I can deposit in USD and buy bitcoin then transfer those bitcoin anonymously to any where I want in the world, sell those for a currency other than USD and then deposit that currency into a foreign account with no regulation, or taxation is where the US AML (Anti Money Laundering) and KYC (Know Your Customer) policies take effect. Mt.Gox can not reasonably provide an account of transactions to the US Government showing what happened to either the funds or the bitcoin.

IMO this is what they are going to use to begin shutting down all US based funding to any form of bitcoin trading platform.

The US Government has a number of bills in place that they are trying to pass such as SOPA, Online taxation, etc. 25 States in the US already have internet filtering laws. I am sure after the media frenzy a team was assembled to investigate Bitcoin and to see how/if it can in fact be regulated and taxed and when it was determined this would not be possible they have switched gears to shutting it down.

This is exactly how it started when it came to online gambling. Seizure warrants, cease and desists were sent to every financial institution in the states banning them from funding any site that allowed card games and/or games of chance.

For those of you saying Dwolla sucks anyway I agree. However Dwolla is the leading US funding source for MtGox, the most widely used, and widely publicized. If you were trying to send a clear message would you go for the jugular or start with the toes? They don't care about the "little guys" YET.

Tradehill, Coinbase, CampBX, these are all US Based trading platforms. I would keep your eyes on these. If and when any or all of them get shut down for similar issues then you will know without a doubt that the US is moving forward to quietly wipe out Bitcoin.  

thanks for the infos...

It was just a question of time until governments realize the problems that cryptocurrencies bring to their financial regulation system.
Obviously they have to do something before the hoi polloi start hopping on the train.
I talked about this problem some weeks ago on this forum as I see the biggest problem in bitcoin that it will be misused massively for taxrefugees and moneylaundering because its transactions are so much more easier to be covered.
So we will have some time of panic because noone knows how governments will react but I think it's a good sign that bitcoin is on its way to mass adoption.
Bitcoin has evolved too far to be stopped. Only thing governments can do as always when they've overslept a new thing is to adapt and integrate it into their system.
I mean no country even has laws yet that define if bitcoin is a currency or a commodity. I'm really curious how some court procedure would be handled.
And wouldn't it be the best reaction for an american Bitcoin user right now to spend all cash on bitcoin and get them on their personal wallet instead of cashing out and watching their frozen dollars for some months?
Or am I on the wrong plane right now?

edit: besides I don't think US can wipe out bitcoin quietly. That would backfire quite hard in the media...and people are suddenly very interested if governments prohibit something they don't see as real harm to their society Smiley

1118  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 15, 2013, 01:17:17 AM
well quite some good support on bid side corresponding to these news or do you think we go double digits?
1119  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 15, 2013, 01:14:55 AM
shit I came too late,
what happened to nice stability, I don't want to search through last ten pages?
We had some bad news or just pumpndump?
could somebody give short feedback?
just read some dwollathingyproblem...

SWAT team smashed their way into Gox and knocked everyone off their rubber balls

say what? did they ddos too hard for american taste?
I'm just reading through last pages but can't really get the right info why this happened?
Is there something from news agencies or what's going on?

edit: ah thanks for answer
1120  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 15, 2013, 01:09:56 AM
shit I came too late,
what happened to nice stability, I don't want to search through last ten pages?
We had some bad news or just pumpndump?
could somebody give short feedback?
just read some dwollathingyproblem...
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