[CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx

[byronbb]

Typically when the DOJ/Internet Police seize a website it is usually just the domain and not the servers. This is why bookies like 5dimes.com continue to operate at their .eu address.

[1714805568]

1714805568

[misterbigg]

Typically when the DOJ/Internet Police seize a website it is usually just the domain and not the servers. This is why bookies like 5dimes.com continue to operate at their .eu address.

True, but like I said, a considerable amount of corporate goodwill is going into the domain name. The expectation of growth is based on advertising the SatoshiDICE.com brand (and URL) and also in print media.

[byronbb]

Why not use investor capital to allow satoshidice to take larger bets? Also, I am surprised you guys don't run a coin mixing service.

[GeoRW]

Maybe I would invest into this but being on MPEX is risky as hell and I don't want to support spamming of the blockchain with huge amounts transactions either (my SSD drive has only 128 GB).

[freeAgent]

As far as I know Erik operates out of UAE, or some such.

I saw a U.S.A. phone number so assumed he was in the states. Wouldn't being located in an Islamic country be yet another investor risk?

He works for BitInstant in NYC and is a member of the Free State Project (New Hampshire).

[evoorhees]

The site itself is simply a fancy front entrance.

True. However, the expectation of parabolic growth comes not from an increasing stream of gambling "tech nerds", but from the mainstream exposure generated through advertising.

Gah.... again, the site valuation is based on NOT assuming growth, but on current revenues/profits. If "parabolic growth" occurs, then great, but it's certainly not an assumption. The offering makes financial sense for an investor even with near zero growth.

[evoorhees]

Maybe I would invest into this but being on MPEX is risky as hell and I don't want to support spamming of the blockchain with huge amounts transactions either (my SSD drive has only 128 GB).

SatoshiDICE pays for every transaction it makes. To date, it is the largest supporter of miners in the bitcoin economy. The majority of all mining fees ever have been paid by SatoshiDICE.

[boonies4u]

Gah.... again, the site valuation is based on NOT assuming growth, but on current revenues/profits. If "parabolic growth" occurs, then great, but it's certainly not an assumption. The offering makes financial sense for an investor even with near zero growth.

We disagree.

[misterbigg]

Gah.... again, the site valuation is based on NOT assuming growth, but on current revenues/profits. If "parabolic growth" occurs, then great, but it's certainly not an assumption. The offering makes financial sense for an investor even with near zero growth.

With no growth, the "investment" takes 10 years to pay off. I don't believe an unregulated gambling site that uses a digital currency which circumvents the entire establishment financial system will last 10 years without being fucked with.

True "due dilligence" would enumerate the risks. Why do I see no mention of risk in the prospectus? Domain seizure is very real and very likely (especially with .com).

Seizure of the owner of the operation is also equally likely.

[misterbigg]

SatoshiDICE pays for every transaction it makes. To date, it is the largest supporter of miners in the bitcoin economy. The majority of all mining fees ever have been paid by SatoshiDICE.

Where can we audit the BTC cash reserves?

[evoorhees]

As far as I know Erik operates out of UAE, or some such.

I saw a U.S.A. phone number so assumed he was in the states. Wouldn't being located in an Islamic country be yet another investor risk?

He works for BitInstant in NYC and is a member of the Free State Project (New Hampshire).

I'm in Manhattan these days, though I was previously in New Hampshire, and before that was living in Dubai and may move there again in the future (since the US sucks).

For anyone in NYC by the way, we're having a big Meetup at our new office on Wednesday evening, lots of cool dudes will be here: http://www.meetup.com/Jekyll_Island_Bitcoin_Society/events/77229272/

[evoorhees]

Gah.... again, the site valuation is based on NOT assuming growth, but on current revenues/profits. If "parabolic growth" occurs, then great, but it's certainly not an assumption. The offering makes financial sense for an investor even with near zero growth.

With no growth, the "investment" takes 10 years to pay off.

Again, please check your math. In 10 years, you would have doubled your money just from the dividends assuming zero growth. That's very different then "paying off" in 10 years.

[evoorhees]

SatoshiDICE pays for every transaction it makes. To date, it is the largest supporter of miners in the bitcoin economy. The majority of all mining fees ever have been paid by SatoshiDICE.

Where can we audit the BTC cash reserves?

This thread is a good place to start - people have been auditing SatoshiDICE since it started

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.0

[bitcoinbear]

Gah.... again, the site valuation is based on NOT assuming growth, but on current revenues/profits. If "parabolic growth" occurs, then great, but it's certainly not an assumption. The offering makes financial sense for an investor even with near zero growth.

With no growth, the "investment" takes 10 years to pay off.

It may take 10 years for the investment to double your money from the dividend, but at any point you would be able to sell and recover your initial investment (assuming there is still a market and bitcoin still exists, etc). Since when does your money have to double to "pay off"?

[cedus]

Do not get my wrong, I hope you guys sell out, it would be nice to know people are willing to wait 15 years to break even. I just sadly do not think that is realistic right now. We will see.

Wait 15 years to break even... what are you talking about? 

If SatoshiDICE didn't grow at all (which it will) and you were never able to sell the share (which you can), then it would take about 10 years to break even.

Maybe he talks about actual profits (65 BTC daily), not some mysterious "expected" profits/earnings (4,798.63 BTC x 0.019). You know, E in that P/E ratio is called Earnings, not rEvenue (for a reason). You're happily calling your revenue as your ("expected") profits/earnings. Profits/earnings is normally something you get after deducting expenses which, btw., include advertising costs which "will be increased to between $500-$1,000 per month" (from "$100-$300 range") therefore weakening your E and making P/E ratio even higher.

So people, please stop using P/E 10 when speaking about this IPO, since the correct P/E ratio is 15 (345,000 / 65 x 365).

Since the site will grow, and since you can sell your share whenever, the equation changes substantially. A conservative estimate with a doubling of site revenue within 2-3 years means you'd have made 100% within 1-2 years because the stock price would double to maintain the same 10x p/e valuation. The attractiveness of such an investment to professional investors should be apparent.

No, it doesn't mean that. Again, you're speaking about revenues and totally forgetting (rising) expenses. Secondly, P/E ratio can and most likely will change over time, reflecting eg. changes in business environment and profitability of your venture or simply due to changes in stock/market price. P/E isn't some static figure you can shove down your "professional investors'" throats and make them follow it blindly, but a dynamic ratio which measures a variety of factors reflected either in stock/market price or earnings of your venture. Inability to both understand this business dynamic/logic behind P/E ratio and distinguish revenue from profits/earnings is alone sufficient reason for me not invest in this venture.

[misterbigg]

Where can we audit the BTC cash reserves?

This thread is a good place to start - people have been auditing SatoshiDICE since it started
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.0

But where's the running balance? Nothing in the prospectus talks about the size of the cash reserve, or discusses the probability that SatoshiDICE will "go bust" (which is unlikely but still a nonzero chance).

If the dividends are paid out every month what happens to the cash reserves? How often are the betting limits reduced on account of liquidity? What's the long term plan for raising the betting limits?

A lot of unanswered questions here! I think people are getting caught up in the glamour and hype and are forgetting basic due dilligence!!!!

[misterbigg]

All Casinos purchase specialty Casino Insurance, which is usually underwritten with cooperation from a bank using a letter of credit / credit line for the casino.

Who backstops SatoshiDICE's cash reserve? What happens if a series of lucky (or unlucky if you're a shareholder) rolls wipes out the cash reserve? With no backstop the betting limit would have to be lowered, and SatoshiDICE would enter a period of very slow growth. And it would be quite vulnerable to a well financed competitor with a larger cash reserve. Customers would leave SatoshiDICE if the limits stayed low for too long. Nowhere is this mentioned in the prospectus...

[evoorhees]

Do not get my wrong, I hope you guys sell out, it would be nice to know people are willing to wait 15 years to break even. I just sadly do not think that is realistic right now. We will see.

Wait 15 years to break even... what are you talking about? 

If SatoshiDICE didn't grow at all (which it will) and you were never able to sell the share (which you can), then it would take about 10 years to break even.

Maybe he talks about actual profits (65 BTC daily), not some mysterious "expected" profits/earnings (4,798.63 BTC x 0.019). You know, E in that P/E ratio is called Earnings, not rEvenue (for a reason). You're happily calling your revenue as your ("expected") profits/earnings. Profits/earnings is normally something you get after deducting expenses which, btw., include advertising costs which "will be increased to between $500-$1,000 per month" (from "$100-$300 range") therefore weakening your E and making P/E ratio even higher.

So people, please stop using P/E 10 when speaking about this IPO, since the correct P/E ratio is 15 (345,000 / 65 x 365).

Since the site will grow, and since you can sell your share whenever, the equation changes substantially. A conservative estimate with a doubling of site revenue within 2-3 years means you'd have made 100% within 1-2 years because the stock price would double to maintain the same 10x p/e valuation. The attractiveness of such an investment to professional investors should be apparent.

No, it doesn't mean that. Again, you're speaking about revenues and totally forgetting (rising) expenses. Secondly, P/E ratio can and most likely will change over time, reflecting eg. changes in business environment and profitability of your venture or simply due to changes in stock/market price. P/E isn't some static figure you can shove down your "professional investors'" throats and make them follow it blindly, but a dynamic ratio which measures a variety of factors reflected either in stock/market price or earnings of your venture. Inability to both understand this business dynamic/logic behind P/E ratio and distinguish revenue from profits/earnings is alone sufficient reason for me not invest in this venture.

Cedus, you're confusing yourself.

See figures here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dG5SQklHZG4wRm1GMW9DRWpMMW5UQkE#gid=0

Avg. daily revenues: 4,798.63
House edge: 0.019
Avg. profit per day: 91.17 btc (this is profit, not revenue)

Projected profit per year: 33,278 (again, this is profit, not revenue, and assumes ZERO growth)

IPO will raise capital at roughly 10x P/E ratio based on that above figure.

[zebedee]

LOL how does the deal suck? Cause it doesn't make 7000% per year? Man people have been spoiled

And, as mentioned, SatoshiDice volumes have GROWN while BTC appreciated against the dollar, meaning when the BTC was 2x as valuable as prior, the site had grown nominally in BTC, thus the actual growth of the site has been tremendous. Dividends are paid in BTC, so the extent to which BTC rallies against dollars is not as important as you're making it out to be.

Come on Erik: realistically speaking if BTC goes up 10 times, people are going to be willing to gamble less, let's be generous and say 25% as much in BTC space, or 2.5 times more in fiat space.   However I look at it I can only see downside to your BTC volume and profitability.

But good luck to you, it'll be interesting to see how much you can rope in and at what price.

[Factory]

Do not get my wrong, I hope you guys sell out, it would be nice to know people are willing to wait 15 years to break even. I just sadly do not think that is realistic right now. We will see.

Wait 15 years to break even... what are you talking about?  

If SatoshiDICE didn't grow at all (which it will) and you were never able to sell the share (which you can), then it would take about 10 years to break even.

Maybe he talks about actual profits (65 BTC daily), not some mysterious "expected" profits/earnings (4,798.63 BTC x 0.019). You know, E in that P/E ratio is called Earnings, not rEvenue (for a reason). You're happily calling your revenue as your ("expected") profits/earnings. Profits/earnings is normally something you get after deducting expenses which, btw., include advertising costs which "will be increased to between $500-$1,000 per month" (from "$100-$300 range") therefore weakening your E and making P/E ratio even higher.

So people, please stop using P/E 10 when speaking about this IPO, since the correct P/E ratio is 15 (345,000 / 65 x 365).

Since the site will grow, and since you can sell your share whenever, the equation changes substantially. A conservative estimate with a doubling of site revenue within 2-3 years means you'd have made 100% within 1-2 years because the stock price would double to maintain the same 10x p/e valuation. The attractiveness of such an investment to professional investors should be apparent.

No, it doesn't mean that. Again, you're speaking about revenues and totally forgetting (rising) expenses. Secondly, P/E ratio can and most likely will change over time, reflecting eg. changes in business environment and profitability of your venture or simply due to changes in stock/market price. P/E isn't some static figure you can shove down your "professional investors'" throats and make them follow it blindly, but a dynamic ratio which measures a variety of factors reflected either in stock/market price or earnings of your venture. Inability to both understand this business dynamic/logic behind P/E ratio and distinguish revenue from profits/earnings is alone sufficient reason for me not invest in this venture.

10 or 15.....Both P/Es are unattractive for this.