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Author Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx  (Read 315719 times)
nimda
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August 29, 2012, 04:10:01 PM
 #401

For the progressive games, does the house ensure that Jackpot * Win_Odds < Bet_Unit ?

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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August 29, 2012, 04:21:06 PM
 #402

..............
I can't stress enough that all these numbers are based on actual real-life performance, they are not wild-eyed estimates of possible future growth figures, etc. I think it will be hard to continue to argue that this asset is priced unreasonably.

As you all know: "Past performance is not an indication of future performance"
Do not forget to update this thread when you have to cough up a fat payment and PE jumps at the other direction.

Any updates for the last week?
Pleas, use PE and not PS this time Wink

While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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August 29, 2012, 04:33:50 PM
 #403

Any updates for the last week?
Please, use PE and not PS this time Wink

Its a monthly deal, not weekly.

Quote from: the contract
(e)The representatives of SatoshiDice solemnly promise and warrant that complete and accurate Statements of Profit and Loss for each calendar month will be published by them no later than by the fifth day of the new month.

Shire Silver, a better bullion that fits in your wallet. Get some, now accepting bitcoin!
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August 29, 2012, 07:25:56 PM
 #404

....
Meanwhile, since this post went up five days ago, SatoshiDICE has been making so much money that the IPO price is now only a 9x multiple. SD made over 2000 BTC in net profit today, which is almost a tenth of what I'm asking for in the IPO... earned in one day. Maybe I'm pricing this too low :/ Will post updated stats in the google doc tomorrow.

ShireSilver, I guess you missed this "extremely" important update to boost the sales.
I just like to know, what has changes in the last week. IPO is still going? Or is it?

From the front page:
There will be three blocks of shares released:
1)   2 million shares @ 0.0032 btc (Aug 24, Midnight GMT)
2)   5 million shares @ 0.0034 btc (Aug 25, Midnight GMT) - as of today, is this part even completed? 
3)   3 million shares @ 0.0037 btc (Aug 26, Midnight GMT) - as of today, never started?



While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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August 29, 2012, 08:01:53 PM
 #405

....
Meanwhile, since this post went up five days ago, SatoshiDICE has been making so much money that the IPO price is now only a 9x multiple. SD made over 2000 BTC in net profit today, which is almost a tenth of what I'm asking for in the IPO... earned in one day. Maybe I'm pricing this too low :/ Will post updated stats in the google doc tomorrow.

ShireSilver, I guess you missed this "extremely" important update to boost the sales.
I just like to know, what has changes in the last week. IPO is still going? Or is it?

From the front page:
There will be three blocks of shares released:
1)   2 million shares @ 0.0032 btc (Aug 24, Midnight GMT)
2)   5 million shares @ 0.0034 btc (Aug 25, Midnight GMT) - as of today, is this part even completed? 
3)   3 million shares @ 0.0037 btc (Aug 26, Midnight GMT) - as of today, never started?


Eskimo - you are very snarky.

I'll update the stats at the end of the month, it was only 5 days ago that I updated them.

Regarding the shares released - the first tranche of 2m is sold out. 4.879m of the second tranche are still available, as are the 3m shares of the third tranche.
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August 29, 2012, 08:19:32 PM
 #406

....
Meanwhile, since this post went up five days ago, SatoshiDICE has been making so much money that the IPO price is now only a 9x multiple. SD made over 2000 BTC in net profit today, which is almost a tenth of what I'm asking for in the IPO... earned in one day. Maybe I'm pricing this too low :/ Will post updated stats in the google doc tomorrow.

ShireSilver, I guess you missed this "extremely" important update to boost the sales.
I just like to know, what has changes in the last week. IPO is still going? Or is it?

From the front page:
There will be three blocks of shares released:
1)   2 million shares @ 0.0032 btc (Aug 24, Midnight GMT)
2)   5 million shares @ 0.0034 btc (Aug 25, Midnight GMT) - as of today, is this part even completed? 
3)   3 million shares @ 0.0037 btc (Aug 26, Midnight GMT) - as of today, never started?


Eskimo - you are very snarky.

I'll update the stats at the end of the month, it was only 5 days ago that I updated them.

Regarding the shares released - the first tranche of 2m is sold out. 4.879m of the second tranche are still available, as are the 3m shares of the third tranche.

Stats can be obtained from dooglus's excellent thread, updated daily. I am mostly a speculator myself, but I suspect that the 3m shares of third tranche will not be touched in a while, unless SatoshiDice releases good news or pays its first dividend ahead of analyst projections.
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August 29, 2012, 08:22:21 PM
 #407

Nothing from the third tranche will sell, even if it is "released" until all of the second tranche sells and nobody who bought already is selling below .0037 BTC.  If you think SDICE will sell out, there's a great arbitrage opportunity for an early buyer to resell at .0036 when evoorhees starts selling the third tranche.  I don't think this IPO will sell out so I'm not making that bet, but you could make 975 BTC if you did that now.

EDIT: Minus the ridiculous 20 BTC fee for getting an MPEX account.
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August 29, 2012, 08:23:54 PM
 #408

Stats can be obtained from dooglus's excellent thread, updated daily. I am mostly a speculator myself, but I suspect that the 3m shares of third tranche will not be touched in a while, unless SatoshiDice releases good news or pays its first dividend ahead of analyst projections.

I suspect there will be alot of investors waiting until just before the dividend before they buy the shares. How precisely do we know when the dividend will come?

Nothing from the third tranche will sell, even if it is "released" until all of the second tranche sells and nobody who bought already is selling below .0037 BTC.  If you think SDICE will sell out, there's a great arbitrage opportunity for an early buyer to resell at .0036 when evoorhees starts selling the third tranche.  I don't think this IPO will sell out so I'm not making that bet, but you could make 975 BTC if you did that now.

EDIT: Minus the ridiculous 20 BTC fee for getting an MPEX account.

I think the third tranche is already up for sale?

CryptoNote needs you! Join the elite merged mining forces right now here in Fantomcoin topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=598823.0
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August 29, 2012, 08:28:37 PM
 #409

I'm of two minds about this IPO. On the one hand, there are a lot of mistakes. Using MPOx, tiered IPO pricing, various other issues that were brought up.

Then again, Mr. V deserves credit for pushing the envelope. An IPO for a totally unregulated security, using a cyber currency, that pays interest based on net profits from a going concern. Pretty cool.

If anything, this experiment provides valuable information on what to do (and what not to do) going forward.
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August 29, 2012, 08:31:09 PM
 #410

I think the third tranche is already up for sale?

It may be out there floating around, but it won't sell because there are cheaper shares available.  I would probably have invested in SDICE myself if it wasn't for the $200 MPEX fee and the risk/reward.  I think SDICE is a good business (at least in theory), but if I'm being sold equity in anything, I want voting rights.  I also don't think it's right to call this an IPO when only 10% of the company is up for sale.  If evoorhees made >50% equity available for purchase by the public, I'd change my opinion.  I don't want to tie my capital to the whims of a single person who is running a business of undetermined legality in the US while also residing in the US.  The investment extremely risky.
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August 29, 2012, 08:35:51 PM
 #411

 I also don't think it's right to call this an IPO when only 10% of the company is up for sale.  If evoorhees made >50% equity available for purchase by the public, I'd change my opinion.

If you don't want to call it an IPO, then what is it? Seems like IPO is the commonly accepted term that comes closest to describing what this is?

CryptoNote needs you! Join the elite merged mining forces right now here in Fantomcoin topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=598823.0
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August 29, 2012, 08:46:04 PM
 #412

Nothing from the third tranche will sell, even if it is "released" until all of the second tranche sells and nobody who bought already is selling below .0037 BTC.  If you think SDICE will sell out, there's a great arbitrage opportunity for an early buyer to resell at .0036 when evoorhees starts selling the third tranche.  I don't think this IPO will sell out so I'm not making that bet, but you could make 975 BTC if you did that now.

EDIT: Minus the ridiculous 20 BTC fee for getting an MPEX account.
There are ways to do that and not a pay 20 BTC fee.

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August 29, 2012, 08:50:46 PM
 #413

I have never heard of a company going public by issuing only non-voting shares (or issuing only 10% of equity to the public for that matter).  IPO is also a technical term that refers to companies registered with the SEC, that are audited, and make various reports available to the public which SDICE has not done.  This is more like a private, angel/venture investment opportunity.

Also, as I said previously, even though you technically own "equity" in SDICE when you purchase this stock, the way things are actually structured this seems more like a variable annuity to me, backed by evoorhees and his SDICE profits.
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August 29, 2012, 08:54:01 PM
 #414

Nothing from the third tranche will sell, even if it is "released" until all of the second tranche sells and nobody who bought already is selling below .0037 BTC.  If you think SDICE will sell out, there's a great arbitrage opportunity for an early buyer to resell at .0036 when evoorhees starts selling the third tranche.  I don't think this IPO will sell out so I'm not making that bet, but you could make 975 BTC if you did that now.

EDIT: Minus the ridiculous 20 BTC fee for getting an MPEX account.
There are ways to do that and not a pay 20 BTC fee.

You would have to rely on a pass-through, which adds a lot of risk and complicating factors.  I'd rather pay the 20 BTC fee and do it myself.
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August 29, 2012, 09:09:09 PM
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Nothing from the third tranche will sell, even if it is "released" until all of the second tranche sells and nobody who bought already is selling below .0037 BTC.  If you think SDICE will sell out, there's a great arbitrage opportunity for an early buyer to resell at .0036 when evoorhees starts selling the third tranche.  I don't think this IPO will sell out so I'm not making that bet, but you could make 975 BTC if you did that now.

EDIT: Minus the ridiculous 20 BTC fee for getting an MPEX account.

You could get a broker to do the purchases for you.

How much price granularity is there on MPeX? Why use a price of .0036 to undercut the last trance rather than .00369999?

CryptoNote needs you! Join the elite merged mining forces right now here in Fantomcoin topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=598823.0
freeAgent
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August 29, 2012, 09:17:57 PM
 #416

Nothing from the third tranche will sell, even if it is "released" until all of the second tranche sells and nobody who bought already is selling below .0037 BTC.  If you think SDICE will sell out, there's a great arbitrage opportunity for an early buyer to resell at .0036 when evoorhees starts selling the third tranche.  I don't think this IPO will sell out so I'm not making that bet, but you could make 975 BTC if you did that now.

EDIT: Minus the ridiculous 20 BTC fee for getting an MPEX account.

You could get a broker to do the purchases for you.

How much price granularity is there on MPeX? Why use a price of .0036 to undercut the last trance rather than .00369999?

I haven't looked into it, but it should also work if they carry the decimal out that far.
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August 29, 2012, 10:58:06 PM
 #417

I think the third tranche is already up for sale?

It may be out there floating around, but it won't sell because there are cheaper shares available.  I would probably have invested in SDICE myself if it wasn't for the $200 MPEX fee and the risk/reward.  I think SDICE is a good business (at least in theory), but if I'm being sold equity in anything, I want voting rights.  I also don't think it's right to call this an IPO when only 10% of the company is up for sale.  If evoorhees made >50% equity available for purchase by the public, I'd change my opinion.  I don't want to tie my capital to the whims of a single person who is running a business of undetermined legality in the US while also residing in the US.  The investment extremely risky.
If the IPO does sell out, it's safe to say that holding would have been better than sell-low then buy-high (which is a loss). The $200 MPEX fee is a turnoff, but GSDPT offers a solution by allowing 0-fee investing.
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August 30, 2012, 12:14:10 AM
 #418

The $200 MPEX fee is a turnoff, but GSDPT offers a solution by allowing 0-fee investing.

How does receiving only 95% of dividends equate to 0-fee investing?

There is the non-negligible counterparty risk. Granted, DeaDTerra seems to be fairly well known but that is still an additional person in the chain of links between you and your security. Plus, there's GLBSE.

So if you go the GSDPT route, you have an extra administrator, an extra exchange, and a 5% reduction in dividends. Hardly free.
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August 30, 2012, 02:22:16 AM
 #419

The $200 MPEX fee is a turnoff, but GSDPT offers a solution by allowing 0-fee investing.

How does receiving only 95% of dividends equate to 0-fee investing?

There is the non-negligible counterparty risk. Granted, DeaDTerra seems to be fairly well known but that is still an additional person in the chain of links between you and your security. Plus, there's GLBSE.

So if you go the GSDPT route, you have an extra administrator, an extra exchange, and a 5% reduction in dividends. Hardly free.


Yeah, it's not without fees.  On top of that, instead of relying only on evoorhees and MPEX, you're relying on GLBSE and DeaDTerra on top of that, making the investment even riskier.
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August 30, 2012, 03:35:12 AM
 #420

 I also don't think it's right to call this an IPO when only 10% of the company is up for sale.  If evoorhees made >50% equity available for purchase by the public, I'd change my opinion.

If you don't want to call it an IPO, then what is it? Seems like IPO is the commonly accepted term that comes closest to describing what this is?

Admittedly, normal terminologies aren't perfectly applicable in Bitcoin world. Hopefully the contract adequately informed people what was being offered, what the obligations are, etc. If there's some new term that should be used for such a thing, I'm all ears Smiley

Revolutionary technologies have a tendency of disrupting traditional nomenclature.
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