[BF and BTCT] Gamma SatoshiDICE Pass Through

[evoorhees]

Quick Update:

The new SatoshiDICE site should be live within 2 weeks, I hope everyone is excited for it

Also, there's another special announcement which will be made around the same time - should be very good for owners of S.DICE

[burger]

I read that the next payment from SatoshiDICE will be on Oct 1. It will be exiting to see how much it is!

[Bugpowder]

I read that the next payment from SatoshiDICE will be on Oct 1. It will be exiting to see how much it is!

I thought it was on the 5th?  Which is it?

It will be around 200BTC, unless something changes dramatically in the next few days, according to dooglass's analysis

[MPOE-PR]

I thought it was on the 5th?  Which is it?

From the contract:

(e)The representatives of SatoshiDice solemnly promise and warrant that complete and accurate Statements of Profit and Loss for each calendar month will be published by them no later than by the fifth day of the new month.
[...]
(f)Immediately upon publication of each Statement of Profit and Loss SatoshiDice will pay to shareholders as dividends a fraction of no less than 100% (one hundred percent) of the Net Profits, if any.

[bitcoinbear]

I thought it was on the 5th?  Which is it?

From the contract:

(e)The representatives of SatoshiDice solemnly promise and warrant that complete and accurate Statements of Profit and Loss for each calendar month will be published by them no later than by the fifth day of the new month.
[...]
(f)Immediately upon publication of each Statement of Profit and Loss SatoshiDice will pay to shareholders as dividends a fraction of no less than 100% (one hundred percent) of the Net Profits, if any.

So it is no later than the 5th, but it could be as early as the 1st.

[Fizzgig]

Right now it seems like it'll be 400BTC, if the dividend was today. The previous dividend was 786BTC, so it should end up being about 60% of the previous dividend, which was actually an unexpected bonus dividend which was a collection of all profits gathered to that point.

Satoshi Dice is 100% transparent, 100% provable, and up to 10% of the profits held by the public, including charities! Best bitcoin game ever!

[Bugpowder]

See this thread.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.220

More like around (11851 - 9851 / 10) = 200BTC estimated for this month.  0.6% yield at 0.0034 price.
 

Right now it seems like it'll be 400BTC, if the dividend was today. The previous dividend was 786BTC, so it should end up being about 60% of the previous dividend, which was actually an unexpected bonus dividend which was a collection of all profits gathered to that point.

Satoshi Dice is 100% transparent, 100% provable, and up to 10% of the profits held by the public, including charities! Best bitcoin game ever!

[burger]

Today's the date! I hope we get much BTCBTCBTC when the dividends starts =)

[DeaDTerra]

A final wave of shares will go out, then the backing will be synced
So that we are prepared for the dividend.
//DeaDTerra

[theGECK]

See this thread.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.220

More like around (11851 - 9851 / 10) = 200BTC estimated for this month.  0.6% yield at 0.0034 price.
 

Right now it seems like it'll be 400BTC, if the dividend was today. The previous dividend was 786BTC, so it should end up being about 60% of the previous dividend, which was actually an unexpected bonus dividend which was a collection of all profits gathered to that point.

Satoshi Dice is 100% transparent, 100% provable, and up to 10% of the profits held by the public, including charities! Best bitcoin game ever!

.6% monthly yield is equivalent to approximately 7.45% APR, I believe. If that holds, that's quite a good return on an investment that probably won't depreciate as quickly as mining equipment will.

[Bugpowder]

Yeah, but it was an unlucky month, relative to expectation.

Expected return is 1.9% total bets minus about 0.1% in fees.  Looking at the bet volume this month...

(.019-.001)*(881473.16-649203.71) = 4180.85 BTC,  Actual came in around 2200BTC.


4180.85 BTC / 100,000,000 / .0034 = 1.23% expected yield this month.  Extrapolating 1.0123^12 (assuming reinvestment at .0034), = 15.8% APR.


 

See this thread.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.220

More like around (11851 - 9851 / 10) = 200BTC estimated for this month.  0.6% yield at 0.0034 price.
 

Right now it seems like it'll be 400BTC, if the dividend was today. The previous dividend was 786BTC, so it should end up being about 60% of the previous dividend, which was actually an unexpected bonus dividend which was a collection of all profits gathered to that point.

Satoshi Dice is 100% transparent, 100% provable, and up to 10% of the profits held by the public, including charities! Best bitcoin game ever!

.6% monthly yield is equivalent to approximately 7.45% APR, I believe. If that holds, that's quite a good return on an investment that probably won't depreciate as quickly as mining equipment will.

[MPOE-PR]

.6% monthly yield is equivalent to approximately 7.45% APR, I believe. If that holds, that's quite a good return on an investment that probably won't depreciate as quickly as mining equipment will.

Once the owner blocks sell there's probably going to be some upward movement of shares.

[bitcoinbear]

.6% monthly yield is equivalent to approximately 7.45% APR, I believe. If that holds, that's quite a good return on an investment that probably won't depreciate as quickly as mining equipment will.

Once the owner blocks sell there's probably going to be some upward movement of shares.

That is still something like 23000 btc away.

[Bugpowder]

But only 3521107*.0034 = 11971 bitcoins away from the first 9% price jump.  9% return will be pretty sweet as it is.

Also, the daily betting results updates certainly put a damper on buying after the 2800BTC loss on September 8th.  When you know the yield is going to be <1% this month, other securities (S.MPOE, B.MPCD.A, B.MPCD.B, ) look more attractive from a yield perspective (1.36, 2, 3%/mo respectively). Now we have a blank profit slate, and hopefully we will catch up with a great month in October.  If the yield is looking more rich >1.5%, I expect the .0034 block will sell out before Nov.

.6% monthly yield is equivalent to approximately 7.45% APR, I believe. If that holds, that's quite a good return on an investment that probably won't depreciate as quickly as mining equipment will.

Once the owner blocks sell there's probably going to be some upward movement of shares.

That is still something like 23000 btc away.

[MPOE-PR]

.6% monthly yield is equivalent to approximately 7.45% APR, I believe. If that holds, that's quite a good return on an investment that probably won't depreciate as quickly as mining equipment will.

Once the owner blocks sell there's probably going to be some upward movement of shares.

That is still something like 23000 btc away.

There's a ~9% space between 34 and 37 tho. But yes, it's not going to happen tomorrow. Investment with a one day attention span is done for anyway, one would hope.

[Bugpowder]

Make that 11628 BTC to go

[DeaDTerra]

Make that 11628 BTC to go

That was me purchasing some shares for the backing
//DeaDTerra

[evoorhees]

Okay, September is over! The stats are now updated on the spreadsheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dG5SQklHZG4wRm1GMW9DRWpMMW5UQkE

Summary:
Earnings   2115.30020995
Hosting/Tech Expenses   50
   
Net Profit   2065.30020995
10% MPEX Dividend   206.530020995

Volume over past 30 Days   228,279.18
Actual Profit over past 30 Days   2,115.30
Expected Profit over past 30 Days   4,337.30

From the numbers, you can see that players did statistically better than they should have this month (good for them!). Based on volume of SatoshiDICE bets, the site was expected to earn 4,337 BTC, but only earned 2,115 BTC. The dividend would have been roughly double the size if we had statistically matched expectations.

September was the second-strongest month ever in terms of bet volume, after last month's record-breaking performance.

Moving into October, the new site is extremely close (day or two) to being live, and a special announcement still remains that is 1-2 weeks away.

Thank you to all the asset holders, both on MPEX and the GLBSE passthrough. I will be paying the dividend tomorrow (Tuesday)... if you buy shares before I pay it you get an immediate return of about 7.5% APY

Cheers,
-Erik

[burger]

Okay, September is over! The stats are now updated on the spreadsheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aiec3-Eo_yO5dG5SQklHZG4wRm1GMW9DRWpMMW5UQkE

Summary:
Earnings   2115.30020995
Hosting/Tech Expenses   50
   
Net Profit   2065.30020995
10% MPEX Dividend   206.530020995

Volume over past 30 Days   228,279.18
Actual Profit over past 30 Days   2,115.30
Expected Profit over past 30 Days   4,337.30

From the numbers, you can see that players did statistically better than they should have this month (good for them!). Based on volume of SatoshiDICE bets, the site was expected to earn 4,337 BTC, but only earned 2,115 BTC. The dividend would have been roughly double the size if we had statistically matched expectations.

September was the second-strongest month ever in terms of bet volume, after last month's record-breaking performance.

Moving into October, the new site is extremely close (day or two) to being live, and a special announcement still remains that is 1-2 weeks away.

Thank you to all the asset holders, both on MPEX and the GLBSE passthrough. I will be paying the dividend tomorrow (Tuesday)... if you buy shares before I pay it you get an immediate return of about 7.5% APY

Cheers,
-Erik

Thanx for the info evoorhees!

[DeaDTerra]

Backing has been completed
Current backing is 1:1 ratio and Erik is going to pay the dividend any minute now.
After the dividend the ask wall will come up again.
//DeaDTerra