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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 574146 times)
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June 06, 2015, 09:51:32 PM
 #1

...

Martin Armstrong is a financial, well, forecaster might be the right term, who has written extensively on historical patterns of economics.

He has a checkered past (I know that he went to jail for contempt of court, but what I have read it seems that was an injustice), but there is no doubt that he has introduced new concepts for us to read and analyze.  While in jail, he produced a number of interesting papers looking at asset prices through history, including from ANCIENT history.  He is one of the few who looks at cyclicality (time patterns) as well as a MACRO view of the markets (that is, he does not look at the price of gold alone, he looks at everything else too -- with a supercomputer).

He is now out of jail and has set-up shop as a macro-consulting company.  On most days (including today, Saturday) he publishes a few easy-to-digest items looking at various issues of the day.  His blog:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog

What finally moved me today to start this thread is his post was his very interesting piece (from today) "Money -- Credit -- Debt & Derivatives".  It looks like derivatives are as old as money itself (maybe older!), take a look at the article:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31401

*   *   *

I have been in various threads here at the forum where Armstrong's material has come up.

I look forward to reading your views on his ideas, and his proposed solutions (also controversial).
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June 07, 2015, 01:24:13 AM
 #2

pinched from the blog :

Believe it or not, I was at a family gathering and some were talking about the Triple Crown and said no one has won since 1978. I did the wave math in my head and said this year the horse will win. I do not follow horses. They just looked at me and asked you can forecast that too. I said this is the year. Pharoah won.

What was the math? The first wave group was 11, 5 and 2, 1919, 1930, 1935 and 1937 completing 18 years or (17.2). Then there was the typical 3 reaction followed by breaks of increments of 2 completing 11 bringing it 1948. Then we have a 25 year separation until 1973 (25.Cool. Then the next reaction phase of 3 and 2 years bringing us to 1978. So why now? The next build up would be 37.33 (8.6 * 4.3). Hence the pattern 17.2, 25.8, and 37.33. Groups forming in alignment with 8.6.

Just a footnote to curiosity.

PS: I didn’t bet. It would not be fair to take their money.

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June 07, 2015, 05:17:53 AM
 #3

...

Armstrong's cyclicality is complicated for a Junior Armstrong Student like me, I will have to look at it some more.  "Waves upon waves" (through time) seems to cover it.  The math (of sine waves for example) can get out of hand very quickly though.

Did he call the race in advance?

Also, where does his 8.6 year cycle come from? 

(Alternatively, if he has an "FAQs" or similar re his basic ideas, please let me know)


BTW, I remember watching the Belmont in 1973 when Secretariat ran away from all of 'em.  Was WAY AHEAD of the pack.  What a horse.  Practically the whole country was watching.
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June 07, 2015, 08:36:26 AM
 #4

The business cycle and the future, by martin armstrong:
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html

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June 08, 2015, 08:12:25 PM
 #5

...

"Obama is Targeting Your Retirement Accounts"

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31455

From today.  I cashed-out my IRA several years ago, thinking that .gov might just try this sort of thing.  IRAs and 401k's are easy targets.  Beware.
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June 13, 2015, 10:37:36 PM
 #6

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/21577

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June 28, 2015, 04:49:19 PM
 #7

Quote
I look forward to reading your views on his ideas, and his proposed solutions (also controversial).
I can't really discuss grand strategy but we could start with using this thread to keep track of his predictions.
Quote
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34083
It appears that a June closing on cash below 11095 in the Euro will reflect GRexit. A month-end closing for June below 10520 level will be very bearish short-term. However, keep in mind that the major Bearish Reversal lies down at the 10335 level. Therefore, only a monthly closing BELOW 10335 will CONFIRM the 11500 is the extent of any rally.
...
Until we see a monthly closing BELOW 10520, then it remains possible that we could still exceed the 11500 level. A monthly closing BELOW the 10335 will confirm the high is in place and signal phase two will begin with the Euro falling below the 80 cent level relative to the US dollar.
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June 28, 2015, 10:20:46 PM
 #8

...

"Obama is Targeting Your Retirement Accounts"

http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/31455

From today.  I cashed-out my IRA several years ago, thinking that .gov might just try this sort of thing.  IRAs and 401k's are easy targets.  Beware.

I cashed out in 2003, thinking it was coming. I wrote about it coming in the Jason Hommel forum in 2007. My thinking is usually so far ahead of others.

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June 28, 2015, 10:53:25 PM
 #9

...

I was only five years behind you, TPTB!  I got out in 2008 right before the big storm hit.

Retirement accounts are one of the last "Big Pots of Easy Money" for .gov to steal.  If my figure is correct, that is over a trillion dollars.  That would cover the budget deficit for two years (not counting budget tricks).

I am looking forward to Armstrong's comments re Greece tomorrow and the near-future.
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June 28, 2015, 11:56:49 PM
 #10

I am looking forward to Armstrong's comments re Greece tomorrow and the near-future.

I think I understand this better than Armstrong does.

Perhaps the Troika will use the big stick of capital controls to induce the Greeks to vote for the Troika's bailout terms which contains a few carrots with more austerity.

The referendum is some sham to convince the Europeans they are not under a dictatorship, as was the case for Scotland.

Remember my prediction in 2010 in the "Understanding Everything Fundamentally" essay.

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Understand%20Everything%20Fundamentally.html#europe

"Coase’s theorem says that an inefficient internal order will continue for as long as there remains an unavoidable frictional barrier insulating it from the more efficient external possibilities. The fundamental reason the EU crisis will not result in a disintegration of the union, at least not until its people significantly abandon collectivism, is that organisms which are unable to comprehend the mechanism by which they are consuming resources faster than their ecosystem can replenish, thus are unable to stop the mechanism before they perish. So the implosion of the friction and thus the order only occurs when they perish, because they will continue to repeat the mechanism which they do not understand to be a cause of their suffering. This can be verified in a petri dish, as an organism will reproduce until it consumes all of its food or oxygen."

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June 29, 2015, 09:56:14 AM
 #11

Criminal Conviction: On September 29, 1999, Armstrong was indicted by a federal grand jury for having conspired with employees of Republic New York involving Japanese investors. Republic New York pleaded guilty to fraud in federal court on December 17, 2001 and agreed upon a restitution order on January 9, 2002 of $606 million.

Should I believe this ? : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

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June 29, 2015, 02:42:47 PM
 #12

Do you guys know how to read that kind of chart ?

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June 29, 2015, 04:10:09 PM
 #13

Quote
I look forward to reading your views on his ideas, and his proposed solutions (also controversial).
I can't really discuss grand strategy but we could start with using this thread to keep track of his predictions.
Quote
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34083
It appears that a June closing on cash below 11095 in the Euro will reflect GRexit. A month-end closing for June below 10520 level will be very bearish short-term. However, keep in mind that the major Bearish Reversal lies down at the 10335 level. Therefore, only a monthly closing BELOW 10335 will CONFIRM the 11500 is the extent of any rally.
...
Until we see a monthly closing BELOW 10520, then it remains possible that we could still exceed the 11500 level. A monthly closing BELOW the 10335 will confirm the high is in place and signal phase two will begin with the Euro falling below the 80 cent level relative to the US dollar.

iirc, main prediction is for an event to take around Oct 1. Be interesting to see, in light of current events, whether this is on target.
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June 29, 2015, 06:17:28 PM
 #14


The referendum is some sham to convince the Europeans they are not under a dictatorship, as was the case for Scotland.


As much as I loathe to pick over the smallest, and seemingly trivial, point raised in the inexorable and revelatory car crash monologue that is TPTB/Anonymint/Coincube/Martin Armstrong on BitcoinTalk, could I just be so bold as to ask you to expand on this point a little.

    Just for those of us that aren't in the know or in with the "in" crowd - or geniuses perhaps - for those of us like my poor humble ass self for eg .

    As you know, the devil is in the detail, so I'd be glad for you to flesh it out a bit.

   Thanks man.



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June 29, 2015, 06:36:40 PM
 #15

Do you guys know how to read that kind of chart ?
have you read this?
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/how-to-use-the-forecasting-arrays
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June 29, 2015, 08:17:28 PM
 #16


The referendum is some sham to convince the Europeans they are not under a dictatorship, as was the case for Scotland.


As much as I loathe to pick over the smallest, and seemingly trivial, point raised in the inexorable and revelatory car crash monologue that is TPTB/Anonymint/Coincube/Martin Armstrong on BitcoinTalk, could I just be so bold as to ask you to expand on this point a little.

    Just for those of us that aren't in the know or in with the "in" crowd - or geniuses perhaps - for those of us like my poor humble ass self for eg .

    As you know, the devil is in the detail, so I'd be glad for you to flesh it out a bit.

   Thanks man.

In case you weren't aware of the allegations of massive voter fraud (including some Youtube evidence of vote counters doing massive fraud) in the Scottish vote for independence.

In case you weren't aware of the promises made and scare tactics employed in the mass media to keep the sheepeople dependent.

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June 29, 2015, 09:59:47 PM
 #17

Today there are two groups of Scots: Unionists;
and those who feel they have been well and truly shafted by Westminster.

Mostly by sins of omission, like omitting to mention that the fracking rights
had been sold off the week before the referendum, or praising the industries
involved in green energy, and omitting to mention the plans to slash the
budget subsidy. These omissions seem to roll out every week since the vote.

The clincher though was fear. The whisper ... that pensions might be at risk
in an independent Scotland.

That particular fear factor will not work in Greece, because the Troika have
already made their intentions plain. But there are others.
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July 01, 2015, 10:45:37 AM
 #18

I am looking forward to Armstrong's comments re Greece tomorrow and the near-future.

I think I understand this better than Armstrong does.

Perhaps the Troika will use the big stick of capital controls to induce the Greeks to vote for the Troika's bailout terms which contains a few carrots with more austerity.

The referendum is some sham to convince the Europeans they are not under a dictatorship, as was the case for Scotland.

Remember my prediction in 2010 in the "Understanding Everything Fundamentally" essay.

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Understand%20Everything%20Fundamentally.html#europe

"Coase’s theorem says that an inefficient internal order will continue for as long as there remains an unavoidable frictional barrier insulating it from the more efficient external possibilities. The fundamental reason the EU crisis will not result in a disintegration of the union, at least not until its people significantly abandon collectivism, is that organisms which are unable to comprehend the mechanism by which they are consuming resources faster than their ecosystem can replenish, thus are unable to stop the mechanism before they perish. So the implosion of the friction and thus the order only occurs when they perish, because they will continue to repeat the mechanism which they do not understand to be a cause of their suffering. This can be verified in a petri dish, as an organism will reproduce until it consumes all of its food or oxygen."

Yet another in my growing list of "I told you so". Armstrong finally starting to realize what I told him years ago, that the Euro was designed from the beginning to federalized Europe.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34228

Quote
You Can Check-In for the Euro – But You Can Never Leave

...Brussels has a hidden clause that shows from the very beginning this was a covert action to federalize Europe displacing democratic institutions from the top down...

...This Article 352 allows the EU to wage economic war on any member state to force its will upon the people regardless of what they vote. This is an amazing authoritarian view for this is not just about maintaining a single currency, it is now all about centralized power. The EU is now in a position to carry out coercive measures against Greece that are completely outside any legal framework.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/02/business/international/greece-bailout-tsipras.html

Quote
With its banking system shut down and access to further aid cut off, Greece faced the prospect of further debt defaults...

...Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany made clear on Tuesday that she favored waiting until after the Greek referendum on Sunday to reopen talks, and her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, repeated that message on Wednesday after news of Mr. Tsipras’s letter became public.

TPTB_need_war
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July 01, 2015, 11:04:53 AM
 #19

macgsa,

Here is more info on Armstrong's models. See for example the Energy Model which is claimed to be an improvement on one-dimensional oscillators or stochastic indicators.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models

P.S. Don't tell iCebreaker, he might blow a fuse.

thatbluedude
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July 01, 2015, 04:19:44 PM
 #20

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http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/34083
It appears that a June closing on cash below 11095 in the Euro will reflect GRexit. ...
closing was above that.
google gave me several slightly different values for this, what is the canon data source for these predictions?
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