Martin Armstrong Discussion

[trollercoaster]

Crypto is not immune

[sidhujag]

Crypto is not immune

Crypto will act as safe havens

[trollercoaster]

Crypto prices will not be immune from collapsing commodity markets, that is wishful thinking.

There will be a right time to buy crypto & I am waiting for it, I will be moving most of my wealth into crypto because I believe it will be the safest hedge against theft (taxation)

Once the dust settles and we have a clearer picture of what is going on, I wouldn't throw all of your eggs into one basket, especially now.

Please note I am not qualified to give financial advice, this is only my opinion (you absolutely should not take financial advice from some chump on a forum named trollercoaster) good luck to everyone.  

[jehst]

Some people distort the events of the Great Depression to sell gold, but keep in mind that commodities peaked in 1919 and bottomed WITH stocks in 1932. Real estate peaked in 1927 followed by bonds when the Fed cut rates to try to help Europe. Then, everything reversed and stocks soared in 1929, crashed, and burned into 1932 bottoming with commodities.

There was NO SINGLE INVESTMENT left standing — ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

I too have been scheming on ways to emerge from this as a billionaire. But the more I read, the more I realize that if I try to be clever with timing and leveraged positions, I will likely be wiped out.

[trollercoaster]

Some people distort the events of the Great Depression to sell gold, but keep in mind that commodities peaked in 1919 and bottomed WITH stocks in 1932. Real estate peaked in 1927 followed by bonds when the Fed cut rates to try to help Europe. Then, everything reversed and stocks soared in 1929, crashed, and burned into 1932 bottoming with commodities.

There was NO SINGLE INVESTMENT left standing — ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

I too have been scheming on ways to emerge from this as a billionaire. But the more I read, the more I realize that if I try to be clever with timing and leveraged positions, I will likely be wiped out.

Lol same here, but I will be no worse off than I am now, but the upside potential is massive.

[jehst]

Some people distort the events of the Great Depression to sell gold, but keep in mind that commodities peaked in 1919 and bottomed WITH stocks in 1932. Real estate peaked in 1927 followed by bonds when the Fed cut rates to try to help Europe. Then, everything reversed and stocks soared in 1929, crashed, and burned into 1932 bottoming with commodities.

There was NO SINGLE INVESTMENT left standing — ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

I too have been scheming on ways to emerge from this as a billionaire. But the more I read, the more I realize that if I try to be clever with timing and leveraged positions, I will likely be wiped out.

Lol same here, but I will be no worse off than I am now, but the upside potential is massive.

The upside is also pretty massive if no banks are lending and you're the only one around with cash in hand. That's when you can get 80% discounts on whatever it is you want. After the massive deflation, you might be able to go buy a house in Spain for $12,000 because very few people are going to be willing and able to throw down $12,000 (whatever that will be in EUR) in late 2016 or early 2017 when everyone is hoarding dollars. It may be enough to just preserve what few dollars you have rather than trying to go for 10x gains with options trading.

[sidhujag]

Some people distort the events of the Great Depression to sell gold, but keep in mind that commodities peaked in 1919 and bottomed WITH stocks in 1932. Real estate peaked in 1927 followed by bonds when the Fed cut rates to try to help Europe. Then, everything reversed and stocks soared in 1929, crashed, and burned into 1932 bottoming with commodities.

There was NO SINGLE INVESTMENT left standing — ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

I too have been scheming on ways to emerge from this as a billionaire. But the more I read, the more I realize that if I try to be clever with timing and leveraged positions, I will likely be wiped out.

Lol same here, but I will be no worse off than I am now, but the upside potential is massive.

The upside is also pretty massive if no banks are lending and you're the only one around with cash in hand. That's when you can get 80% discounts on whatever it is you want. After the massive deflation, you might be able to go buy a house in Spain for $12,000 because very few people are going to be willing and able to throw down $12,000 (whatever that will be in EUR) in late 2016 or early 2017 when everyone is hoarding dollars. It may be enough to just preserve what few dollars you have rather than trying to go for 10x gains with options trading.

Time to buy usd already sailed, risk is high here

[jehst]

Some people distort the events of the Great Depression to sell gold, but keep in mind that commodities peaked in 1919 and bottomed WITH stocks in 1932. Real estate peaked in 1927 followed by bonds when the Fed cut rates to try to help Europe. Then, everything reversed and stocks soared in 1929, crashed, and burned into 1932 bottoming with commodities.

There was NO SINGLE INVESTMENT left standing — ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

I too have been scheming on ways to emerge from this as a billionaire. But the more I read, the more I realize that if I try to be clever with timing and leveraged positions, I will likely be wiped out.

Lol same here, but I will be no worse off than I am now, but the upside potential is massive.

The upside is also pretty massive if no banks are lending and you're the only one around with cash in hand. That's when you can get 80% discounts on whatever it is you want. After the massive deflation, you might be able to go buy a house in Spain for $12,000 because very few people are going to be willing and able to throw down $12,000 (whatever that will be in EUR) in late 2016 or early 2017 when everyone is hoarding dollars. It may be enough to just preserve what few dollars you have rather than trying to go for 10x gains with options trading.

Time to buy usd already sailed, risk is high here

Oh yeah? What currency do you like right now?

[DigiLab]

Today, gold will decline with commodities against MONEY, and then it will rise when people lose confidence in government after realizing that there is a Sovereign Debt Crisis.

Ok, cash (USD) will be king till money starts fleeing from Governments Bonds. But wherever the money goes there will be Governments waiting to take their share, which can only become larger as the interest rates start going up. So, inflation portion comes from the money going away from the Governments, but deflation portion comes from the Governments themselves trying to take their increasing share. Will deflation portion overcome the inflation one? This will be a conflict, between the Governments and the rest. A way out would be a revolution, or maybe a war, unless the Governments cave in.
Thoughts?

[OROBTC]

...

I read the above 10 or so comments with great interest, thanks for sharing.

My guess is that Armstrong is at least partly right about few assets missing a downturn in prices.  I would include crypto in that category, BTC is vulnerable to a price crash if the "rest" of everything cracks...

The two ways to save your bacon under almost any scenario are:

1)  Get diversified.  Maybe everything will go down, but more likely some things will not.  Or not as much (so relative winners).  Gold, CA$H and some (small) holdings of BTC are excellent diversifications that many people do not have much of.

2)  GTFO of debt!  In hyperinflation, debtors MAY be winners, depending on how the debts are structured (some debts inflate with inflation).  While hyperinflation may (probably) happen along the way, it may happen AFTER a deflation, when many debtors will have laready LOST everything, so not eligible...

[marcus_of_augustus]

catalonia vote to secede from spain will be a symbolically huge leak in a very shaky dam ... euro dumps hard and then game on.

[sidhujag]

Some people distort the events of the Great Depression to sell gold, but keep in mind that commodities peaked in 1919 and bottomed WITH stocks in 1932. Real estate peaked in 1927 followed by bonds when the Fed cut rates to try to help Europe. Then, everything reversed and stocks soared in 1929, crashed, and burned into 1932 bottoming with commodities.

There was NO SINGLE INVESTMENT left standing — ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

I too have been scheming on ways to emerge from this as a billionaire. But the more I read, the more I realize that if I try to be clever with timing and leveraged positions, I will likely be wiped out.

Lol same here, but I will be no worse off than I am now, but the upside potential is massive.

The upside is also pretty massive if no banks are lending and you're the only one around with cash in hand. That's when you can get 80% discounts on whatever it is you want. After the massive deflation, you might be able to go buy a house in Spain for $12,000 because very few people are going to be willing and able to throw down $12,000 (whatever that will be in EUR) in late 2016 or early 2017 when everyone is hoarding dollars. It may be enough to just preserve what few dollars you have rather than trying to go for 10x gains with options trading.

Time to buy usd already sailed, risk is high here

Oh yeah? What currency do you like right now?

Btc

[macsga]

...

I read the above 10 or so comments with great interest, thanks for sharing.

My guess is that Armstrong is at least partly right about few assets missing a downturn in prices.  I would include crypto in that category, BTC is vulnerable to a price crash if the "rest" of everything cracks...

The two ways to save your bacon under almost any scenario are:

1)  Get diversified.  Maybe everything will go down, but more likely some things will not.  Or not as much (so relative winners).  Gold, CA$H and some (small) holdings of BTC are excellent diversifications that many people do not have much of.

2)  GTFO of debt!  In hyperinflation, debtors MAY be winners, depending on how the debts are structured (some debts inflate with inflation).  While hyperinflation may (probably) happen along the way, it may happen AFTER a deflation, when many debtors will have laready LOST everything, so not eligible...

Let me add a 3rd point. In times like these, if you have some cash on the side, you can go for a nice piece of land. With about $20K-$50K you can diversify to what I'd call the best "coin" out there (after BTC). Land won't ever betray you and if it's a fruitful one, then it can -literally- save your bacon. Many opportunities on medium to large territories exists right now in (relatively remote) places like Spain, Italy Greece. You *really* don't want to live in a place like NY or London if this happens.

I think that *this* is the right time to buy some land and start preparing for the worse case scenario.

[macsga]

The brilliant market forecaster and creator of the Economic Confidence Model, Martin Armstrong, has been predicting the START of a major DOOM cycle beginning Sept 30/Oct 1, 2015 for at least 20 years.

This prediction is based on the same model that accurately predicted well in advance the stock market crash of October 19, 1987, the fall of the Berlin Wall in November, 1989 and the precise date of the peak of Japan’s Neiki’s Index on December 29, 1989. There are many many more.
Those who do not know of Armstrong are well advised to pay attention.While the 9/23 doom prediction fell to the wayside, Armstrong’s methodology (and accuracy) are undeniable. So much so, a documentary about him is currently screening in cities around the world.


http://investmentwatchblog.com/martin-armstrong-doom-forecasted-to-begin-2015-75/

[smooth]

While the 9/23 doom prediction fell to the wayside

What's that about?

[macsga]

While the 9/23 doom prediction fell to the wayside

What's that about?

I believe it's related to the Shemitah prediction and the 49 year old cycle, but can't be sure. The article is M.A. related and that's why I posted it, I'm not sure though that he specifically noted something about Shemitah and the year of Jubilee himself.

Edit: It IS about Shemitah and related predictions noted elsewhere.

[jehst]

...

I read the above 10 or so comments with great interest, thanks for sharing.

My guess is that Armstrong is at least partly right about few assets missing a downturn in prices.  I would include crypto in that category, BTC is vulnerable to a price crash if the "rest" of everything cracks...

The two ways to save your bacon under almost any scenario are:

1)  Get diversified.  Maybe everything will go down, but more likely some things will not.  Or not as much (so relative winners).  Gold, CA$H and some (small) holdings of BTC are excellent diversifications that many people do not have much of.

2)  GTFO of debt!  In hyperinflation, debtors MAY be winners, depending on how the debts are structured (some debts inflate with inflation).  While hyperinflation may (probably) happen along the way, it may happen AFTER a deflation, when many debtors will have laready LOST everything, so not eligible...

Let me add a 3rd point. In times like these, if you have some cash on the side, you can go for a nice piece of land. With about $20K-$50K you can diversify to what I'd call the best "coin" out there (after BTC). Land won't ever betray you and if it's a fruitful one, then it can -literally- save your bacon. Many opportunities on medium to large territories exists right now in (relatively remote) places like Spain, Italy Greece. You *really* don't want to live in a place like NY or London if this happens.

I think that *this* is the right time to buy some land and start preparing for the worse case scenario.

We've talked about buying land. I think it's also important to talk about the risk of having your wealth in such a public, immovable asset. If governments are hungry for tax revenues, then owning property with lots of equity in it might be a big bullseye on your head.

The deflation comes from the rise in the cost of government, in addition to the collapse in leverage. As governments with power turn to extracting more from the people, rather than from the weak government, you get massive deflation and never hyperinflation. As was the case with the revolutionary new government in Germany during the 1920s. Their own power leads them down the path of suicide. Of course, that can migrate to full economic totalitarianism akin to communism. Whether you technically own your home and are taxed twice its value, or if the state owns it and allows you to live there, is just a technical point. The bottom-line is both are deflationary – not inflationary.

So you might buy a house for $12,000 and the government ends up taxing you $12,000 or $24,000 every year.

[jehst]

Btc

So you think the crash in emerging markets and the crash in Europe and Asia have already happened? That the worldwide rush into the USD and American assets is already complete?

[macsga]

We've talked about buying land. I think it's also important to talk about the risk of having your wealth in such a public, immovable asset. If governments are hungry for tax revenues, then owning property with lots of equity in it might be a big bullseye on your head.

The deflation comes from the rise in the cost of government, in addition to the collapse in leverage. As governments with power turn to extracting more from the people, rather than from the weak government, you get massive deflation and never hyperinflation. As was the case with the revolutionary new government in Germany during the 1920s. Their own power leads them down the path of suicide. Of course, that can migrate to full economic totalitarianism akin to communism. Whether you technically own your home and are taxed twice its value, or if the state owns it and allows you to live there, is just a technical point. The bottom-line is both are deflationary – not inflationary.

So you might buy a house for $12,000 and the government ends up taxing you $12,000 or $24,000 every year.

Fair point; that's why we must consider options other than the western civilization. Africa? South America? or Antarctica? Penguins seem like nice guys to talk to...

[jehst]

We've talked about buying land. I think it's also important to talk about the risk of having your wealth in such a public, immovable asset. If governments are hungry for tax revenues, then owning property with lots of equity in it might be a big bullseye on your head.

The deflation comes from the rise in the cost of government, in addition to the collapse in leverage. As governments with power turn to extracting more from the people, rather than from the weak government, you get massive deflation and never hyperinflation. As was the case with the revolutionary new government in Germany during the 1920s. Their own power leads them down the path of suicide. Of course, that can migrate to full economic totalitarianism akin to communism. Whether you technically own your home and are taxed twice its value, or if the state owns it and allows you to live there, is just a technical point. The bottom-line is both are deflationary – not inflationary.

So you might buy a house for $12,000 and the government ends up taxing you $12,000 or $24,000 every year.

Fair point; that's why we must consider options other than the western civilization. Africa? South America? or Antarctica? Penguins seem like nice guys to talk to...

North America is good. Lots of water. Population density isn't so high. Great agricultural infrastructure. And we have our family connections here which will become much more important when government declines.

The danger I was talking about is just have too much of your wealth in an easily seizable or taxable place.