Martin Armstrong Discussion

[sidhujag]

What do these models mean for real estate prices in California? Will they continue to go up until 2017.9?

Is california the world? Why would you ask something like that?

[1715147261]

1715147261

[1715147261]

1715147261

[1715147261]

1715147261

[jehst]

What do these models mean for real estate prices in California? Will they continue to go up until 2017.9?

Is california the world? Why would you ask something like that?

Maybe he lives in California and wants to know when to buy or sell a house.

To answer the question, those prices in California are already extremely high compared to 2000. But they should go higher if Chinese are trying to get out of China.

[sidhujag]

What do these models mean for real estate prices in California? Will they continue to go up until 2017.9?

Is california the world? Why would you ask something like that?

Maybe he lives in California and wants to know when to buy or sell a house.

To answer the question, those prices in California are already extremely high compared to 2000. But they should go higher if Chinese are trying to get out of China.

So they are here too.. Again it's like assuming that rei isn't correlated to global prices or so,ething I mean do your homework.. The idea is for real estate everywhere.. evm down means it's bad everywhere including where I llive where we are in a 30 year bull trend

[altcoinUK]

I have a huge respect for Armstrong's work and I am definitely one of his biggest fanboy, though I know little about economics I have been reading and try to understand everything what he publishes, but it bothers me he does not take into account the radical changes that will be caused by automation, M2M and Internet of Things. It is reasonable to assume that the analyses are correct by pointing out that the automation and robotics will swipe out 50% of the jobs by 2030 and this surely should will bring completely new paradigms to the economy and society, however Armstrong never talks about it.

I fully agree with TPTB_needswar that the structure of the workforce will completely change and the knowledge economy workers will be in a privileged position, but that wouldn't change a few things regarding Armstrong's model?

[sidhujag]

The economy will crash until it has a revolution to rally behind. IoT and blockchain may be those but it takes time for it to mature enough for avg joe..l

[SmoothCurves]

What do these models mean for real estate prices in California? Will they continue to go up until 2017.9?

Is california the world? Why would you ask something like that?

Maybe he lives in California and wants to know when to buy or sell a house.

To answer the question, those prices in California are already extremely high compared to 2000. But they should go higher if Chinese are trying to get out of China.

So they are here too.. Again it's like assuming that rei isn't correlated to global prices or so,ething I mean do your homework.. The idea is for real estate everywhere.. evm down means it's bad everywhere including where I llive where we are in a 30 year bull trend

Im having a hard time parsing what your reply means. Is the idea that housing prices would initially go up as USA becomes a safe heaven until the eventual collapse?  And then housing plummets? I guess the question is Would you buy a house in California this year?

[macsga]

Martin Armstrong will be visiting Athens, Greece (among other cities in the EU) on September 29. He will be at the French Institute of Athens and will be answering questions of the public, in an interview that will be broadcasted in 13 countries.

Online tickets available here:

http://theforecaster-movie.com/en/live-broadcasts

[klee]

Martin Armstrong will be visiting Athens, Greece (among other cities in the EU) on September 29. He will be at the French Institute of Athens and will be answering questions of the public, in an interview that will be broadcasted in 13 countries.

Online tickets available here:

http://theforecaster-movie.com/en/live-broadcasts

Let's go and bully him for ignoring TPTB!
 

[macsga]

Martin Armstrong will be visiting Athens, Greece (among other cities in the EU) on September 29. He will be at the French Institute of Athens and will be answering questions of the public, in an interview that will be broadcasted in 13 countries.

Online tickets available here:

http://theforecaster-movie.com/en/live-broadcasts

Let's go and bully him for ignoring TPTB!
 

LOL. Yeah! Lets!  

I inquired a two ticket set and asked if I could meet him (I'm willing to take the 2.5hr drive from here) in order to ask him some questions. I'm not sure if he will answer though.

[BldSwtTrs]

So bonds vs gold or Bitcoin then? Govt vs private

And as I have stated too many times already, US stocks and the US dollar will receive stampede capital inflow after 2015.75 until the next turn in 2017.9 because these will be perceived as the most liquid private assets for the time being (this will cause the DJIA to double or triple and the rising dollar will reverse the $9 trillion carry trade in dollar loans originally spawned by the ZIRP of QE, wrecking massive deflation in all countries except the USA).

I don't understand how a rising currency prevent deflation? When the currency appreciates products are cheaper so all else being constant this is deflationnist.

Conversely, if the currency of other countries depreciates the goods and services will be more expensive, I don't see how this is deflationnist.

Your confusion fundamentally derives from your assumption that cost push inflation and deflation are the primary determinants of economic outcomes and health. Rather debt load and international capital flows are much more powerful factors. This generative essence point is what makes Armstrong's analysis so much more reliable than the other bozos who claim to be economists.

That is a good point to raise and attempt to clarify. The USA will be experiencing deflation of imported goods cost (USA being a significant net importer) simultaneously experiencing a net inflation in asset prices (especially the stock market) because of a net gain in the capital account (ingress of international capital as the carry trade tide of QE comes back in). Simultaneously exports will be experiencing deflation both due to increase in cost of exports for importers and the collapse of the international markets which are short the dollar ($9 trillion international dollar loans from carry trade due to ZIRP from QE). So from 2015.75 to 2017.9, mainstreet USA will be experiencing deflation in both costs of imports and income as export industry collapses. Wallstreet USA will be experiencing asset inflation and increases in net worth. Again the rich class is victorious both on the egress of QE and again on the ingress reverberation effect.

Other significantly net importing countries which are not pegged to the dollar (e.g. not Hong Kong) such as the PIIGS, UK, France, and India will be experiencing basic goods cost increases thus mainstreet experiencing inflation at the same time their economies are collapsing due to debt defaults as the QE carry trade reverses and a liquidity crisis envelopes, i.e. stagflation or deinflation. The net exporting countries have a slightly better buffer zone but will eventually get caught in the contagion of deflation and stagflation/deinflation.

In short, a contagion of pain of deflation of income and jobs every where, and even some basic goods cost inflation in Europe and India. China is also allowing some goods cost inflation to kick in by allowing some subsidies to default (which they absolutely must do or it will be forced on them Minky Moment style or already is).

The only upside are the rich who ride the last bond bubble to October, then ride the dollar and US stocks stampede to 2017, then after that the USA falls completely into deflation too and the world goes FUBAR.

From 2018 to 2020, it is going to be waterfall collapse every where, and the only assets rising will probably be the shit the government can't grab, perhaps crypto-coin and gold, but the government will likely attack all the gold dealers thus I think crypto is our best bet. Technology and nerds have an inherent advantage over the government. We can outsmart them. They are too slow. We innovate too fast. They have no clue what we did until years after we did it. Then it takes them another 5 - 10 years to get all the other governments organized and unified. Gold is an old relic they know how to attack. A Treasury official said some years ago, "we will burn the fingertips of the goldbugs up to their armpits". (that might have been Larry Summers or Time Geithner or more likely Robert Rubin)

Thanks for the clarification.

[sidhujag]

What do these models mean for real estate prices in California? Will they continue to go up until 2017.9?

Is california the world? Why would you ask something like that?

Maybe he lives in California and wants to know when to buy or sell a house.

To answer the question, those prices in California are already extremely high compared to 2000. But they should go higher if Chinese are trying to get out of China.

So they are here too.. Again it's like assuming that rei isn't correlated to global prices or so,ething I mean do your homework.. The idea is for real estate everywhere.. evm down means it's bad everywhere including where I llive where we are in a 30 year bull trend

Im having a hard time parsing what your reply means. Is the idea that housing prices would initially go up as USA becomes a safe heaven until the eventual collapse?  And then housing plummets? I guess the question is Would you buy a house in California this year?

In trading sense, because EVM of real estate lines up with the globlal EVM, it will be the worsed outof them all (2015.75) you wouldn't want to try to buck the trend and try to buy into something thats peaking, regardless of where it is (where I live we didn't even go through much of a negative cycle in prices through 2007-2012) and I'm still not going to buy into real estate if stocks are going up.

It's like paying 10x spread on a trade because its your favourite symbol to trade.

[SmoothCurves]

What do these models mean for real estate prices in California? Will they continue to go up until 2017.9?

Is california the world? Why would you ask something like that?

Maybe he lives in California and wants to know when to buy or sell a house.

To answer the question, those prices in California are already extremely high compared to 2000. But they should go higher if Chinese are trying to get out of China.

So they are here too.. Again it's like assuming that rei isn't correlated to global prices or so,ething I mean do your homework.. The idea is for real estate everywhere.. evm down means it's bad everywhere including where I llive where we are in a 30 year bull trend

Im having a hard time parsing what your reply means. Is the idea that housing prices would initially go up as USA becomes a safe heaven until the eventual collapse?  And then housing plummets? I guess the question is Would you buy a house in California this year?

In trading sense, because EVM of real estate lines up with the globlal EVM, it will be the worsed outof them all (2015.75) you wouldn't want to try to buck the trend and try to buy into something thats peaking, regardless of where it is (where I live we didn't even go through much of a negative cycle in prices through 2007-2012) and I'm still not going to buy into real estate if stocks are going up.

It's like paying 10x spread on a trade because its your favourite symbol to trade.

I see. So the rule of thumb is buy real estate only after stocks have crashed down?

[sidhujag]

What do these models mean for real estate prices in California? Will they continue to go up until 2017.9?

Is california the world? Why would you ask something like that?

Maybe he lives in California and wants to know when to buy or sell a house.

To answer the question, those prices in California are already extremely high compared to 2000. But they should go higher if Chinese are trying to get out of China.

So they are here too.. Again it's like assuming that rei isn't correlated to global prices or so,ething I mean do your homework.. The idea is for real estate everywhere.. evm down means it's bad everywhere including where I llive where we are in a 30 year bull trend

Im having a hard time parsing what your reply means. Is the idea that housing prices would initially go up as USA becomes a safe heaven until the eventual collapse?  And then housing plummets? I guess the question is Would you buy a house in California this year?

In trading sense, because EVM of real estate lines up with the globlal EVM, it will be the worsed outof them all (2015.75) you wouldn't want to try to buck the trend and try to buy into something thats peaking, regardless of where it is (where I live we didn't even go through much of a negative cycle in prices through 2007-2012) and I'm still not going to buy into real estate if stocks are going up.

It's like paying 10x spread on a trade because its your favourite symbol to trade.

I see. So the rule of thumb is buy real estate only after stocks have crashed down?

No the idea is to stay in cash while real estate peaks.. until 2030ish

[trollercoaster]

No the idea is to stay in cash while real estate peaks.. until 2030ish

I wouldn't hold more than a few months worth of cash necessary for food etc, I believe the monetary system is heading for a total collapse around mid 2017, you want to hedge against government so timing the lows for private assets before the stampede will be most important, but I agree with staying away from real estate.

[tabnloz]

No the idea is to stay in cash while real estate peaks.. until 2030ish

I wouldn't hold more than a few months worth of cash necessary for food etc, I believe the monetary system is heading for a total collapse around mid 2017, you want to hedge against government so timing the lows for private assets before the stampede will be most important, but I agree with staying away from real estate.

My take is that there will be a monetary reset, but providing things arent Mad Max by then, it will be a move to SDR's as reserve currency, less weighting to USD and more to Yuan. So more Bretton Woods transition than apocalypse.

[TPTB_need_war]

If you value my posts, for this political reason please put a positive Trust rating on my profile. I am asking for this favor in return for all the research I done for you all over the past 2 years at no charge.

Not likely again before 2032. The political climate in the USA will have changed so much by 2017.9, it will be impossible for them to get away with another QE. The problem is confidence. Once the people have decided to exit stocks and put their cash under their mattress, then the Fed is powerless. What the government will have to do instead is stop people from getting cash to put under their mattress. This is why the coming attack on cash, capital controls, bail-ins, nationalization of pension plans, etc..

The shit coming is going to make you wish for QE. But your prayers will not be answered.

I have been trying to take the bull by the horns and work on the crypto-coin attributes we will need coming 2017ish.

Let's say I'm government. You put cash under your mattress because you don't believe in government bonds nor do you believe in stocks anymore. I raise UST rates to 20% but you simply don't believe in government anymore and I can't keep the rate at 20% for very long without instantly being unable to service my debt. So I can't raise money anymore through UST. That leaves me with two options:

1) I hunt down your cash, raise real estate taxes, confiscate gold, etc.
2) I print money.

Isn't the problem with Option 1 that there's USD all over the world? Am I going to hunt down cash in the Caribbean, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, and all over the world? Option 1 seems a lot harder to pull off than Option 2. With Option 2, I just borrow money at 0%, use it for government spending (create governments jobs, finance huge government projects, service the debt) and stealthily (and heavily) tax everyone who is hoarding dollars through inflation. Only when that stops working am I forced to do Option 1.

From 2015.75 to 2017.9, all the fractional reserve liquidity created by QE ZIRP comes home in a massive bubble for the $usd and US stocks, and this will overshoot because there are $9 trillion dollar short positions abroad (actually $usd denominated loans) so speculators will leverage up to go long.

So all those dollars will be captured, then FINCEN and FATCA and other capital controls can kick in before 2017.9. Sort of looks like TPTB had it all scheduled out doesn't it.

Banksters don't want to inflate away the debt, because then they lose.

The following attempt to summarize the bankster business model, yet they assume hyperinflation which is not the usual way the banksters run the end game. The end game is usually expropriation by the government because debtor is slave to lender during deflation:

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/01.10/thinklikeabanker.html

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/06.11/owntheearth.html

So the banksters don't want to hyperinflate away so that the common man can payoff debts and keep cash under his mattress. Rather the banksters want to trap the common man in debt that he can't pay because of deflationary defaults and then make the common man dependent on the government in 666 like slavery system with the banksters+industrialists (the Bilderbergers) running the entire world top down with humans as mere laborer cows for the milking.

[jehst]

So the banksters don't want to hyperinflate away so that the common man can payoff debts and keep cash under his mattress. Rather the banksters want to trap the common man in debt that he can't pay because of deflationary defaults and then make the common man dependent on the government in 666 like slavery system with the banksters+industrialists (the Bilderbergers) running the entire world top down with humans as mere laborer cows for the milking.

But the government itself has tons of debt. Martin Armstrong predicts that by 2020 the government will be using most of tax revenue to pay interest. So although massive deflation makes people slaves to mortgages and student loans, it will also make the US government a slave to its creditors. Wouldn't the government want a middleground between hyperinflation and hyperdeflation?

[TPTB_need_war]

So the banksters don't want to hyperinflate away so that the common man can payoff debts and keep cash under his mattress. Rather the banksters want to trap the common man in debt that he can't pay because of deflationary defaults and then make the common man dependent on the government in 666 like slavery system with the banksters+industrialists (the Bilderbergers) running the entire world top down with humans as mere laborer cows for the milking.

But the government itself has tons of debt. Martin Armstrong predicts that by 2020 the government will be using most of tax revenue to pay interest. So although massive deflation makes people slaves to mortgages and student loans, it will also make the US government a slave to its creditors. Wouldn't the government want a middleground between hyperinflation and hyperdeflation?

Why do you refer to the control of the government as a distinct entity not the banksters. Who do you argue controls the government.

[DigiLab]

TPTB_need_war, I second this.

EXCELLENT clarification & analysis TPTB.  You explained some of Armstrong's points better than he himself has.  Bravo.

[username18333]

[...]

But the government itself has tons of debt. Martin Armstrong predicts that by 2020 the government will be using most of tax revenue to pay interest. So although massive deflation makes people slaves to mortgages and student loans, it will also make the US government a slave to its creditors. Wouldn't the government want a middleground between hyperinflation and hyperdeflation?

(Red colorization mine.)


"[T]he government" (jehst) is a matador's cape, and "people" (jehst) his bull in chase.

Reason obeys itself; and Ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it.

Even Aristotle (384‒322 BCE) would not understand: “the capital or money is money because it is beloved of the one basis point” (qtd. in username18333).