crypto-games.net, 30% house edge, bugs and vulnerabilities, screw the investors!

[joter85]

heres how bad it is, credit goes to dooglus for compiling this:

multiplier, win chance, edge

6613x  0.02% 32.26%
3968x  0.03% 19.04%
2834x  0.04% 13.36%
2204x  0.05% 10.20%
1803x  0.06%  8.18%
1526x  0.07%  6.82%
1322x  0.08%  5.76%
1167x  0.09%  5.03%
1044x  0.10%  4.40%
 944x  0.11%  3.84%
 862x  0.12%  3.44%
 793x  0.13%  3.09%
 734x  0.14%  2.76%
 684x  0.15%  2.60%
 640x  0.16%  2.40%
 601x  0.17%  2.17%
 566x  0.18%  1.88%
 536x  0.19%  1.84%
 508x  0.20%  1.60%
 483x  0.21%  1.43%
 461x  0.22%  1.42%
 440x  0.23%  1.20%
 422x  0.24%  1.28%
 404x  0.25%  1.00%
 389x  0.26%  1.14%
 374x  0.27%  0.98%
 360x  0.28%  0.80%
 348x  0.29%  0.92%
 336x  0.30%  0.80%
 325x  0.31%  0.75%
 314x  0.32%  0.48%
 305x  0.33%  0.65%
 296x  0.34%  0.64%
 287x  0.35%  0.45%
 279x  0.36%  0.44%
 271x  0.37%  0.27%
 264x  0.38%  0.32%
 257x  0.39%  0.23%
 251x  0.40%  0.40%
 244x  0.41%  0.04%
 239x  0.42%  0.38%
 233x  0.43%  0.19%
 228x  0.44%  0.32%
 218x  0.46%  0.28%
 213x  0.47%  0.11%
 182x  0.55%  0.10%

I have ran simulation for this cases, and don't see any issue with it.... Am I missing something....

If there is a 0.02% chance of winning a bet then one will win such a bet once every 5,000 bets however you are paying out 6,613x of the wager amount. If someone were to make a .01 bet 5,000 times then they would wager a total of 50 BTC but would be expected to win  66.13 BTC.

As I said this is issue I can't reproduce in my simulator, I won't bother doing math as we have already did. Now we run only simulations....

[joter85]

I have ran simulation for this cases, and don't see any issue with it.... Am I missing something....

The variance makes this very difficult to simulate (and likewise very difficult to abuse). Try simulate with 100M bets.


Or you know, just use fucking maths. Hint: It's two multiplications and one addition. Sum of the probabilities by its respective profit, which gives you the players EV. If it doesn't equal -0.01 you're got the wrong payouts.


Taking the most extremely wrong one:

0.02% chance of 6613x

That's a 0.0002 of a profit of 6612, and a (1-0.0002) of a profit of -1

Or:  0.0002 * 6612 + (1-0.002)*-1 = 0.3244

AKA a players advantage of 32.44%

You are wrong somewhere as I have entered exact parameters in simulator and result after 10 mil is 0 btc.

[fox19891989]

that wasnt the intention at the very beginning, but it is now. I've said it multiple times before in the thread, I will be contacting the site after dooglus's confirmation.

I just confirmed that the site in question does offer +EV bets for the player. In the worst case the edge is 30% for the player.

I fully expect the site to fix this when subSTRATA tells them about it.

I just discovered that I made an error verifying the +EV play.

It isn't a 30% edge for the player in the worst case.

It's a 32.26% edge for the player.

WOW, what an amazing result, subSTRATA you are genius and you have found such a big bug there, I think you profit from the promo like faucet or something, and make advantage from that, IMO it is not an exploit like you said before,  what an amazing result bro.

It seemed that we were wrong and you found a good way to profit, damn cool, if you keep the secret in your heart, you could win a lot, if you sell it, you earn a lot too, what a good deal.    

[joter85]

that wasnt the intention at the very beginning, but it is now. I've said it multiple times before in the thread, I will be contacting the site after dooglus's confirmation.

I just confirmed that the site in question does offer +EV bets for the player. In the worst case the edge is 30% for the player.

I fully expect the site to fix this when subSTRATA tells them about it.

I just discovered that I made an error verifying the +EV play.

It isn't a 30% edge for the player in the worst case.

It's a 32.26% edge for the player.

WOW, what an amazing result, subSTRATA you are genius and you have found such a big bug there, I think you profit from the promo like faucet or something, and make advantage from that, IMO it is not an exploit like you said before,  what an amazing result bro.

It seemed that we were wrong and you found a good way to profit, damn cool, if you keep the secret in your heart, you could win a lot, if you sell it, you earn a lot too, what a good deal.    

This one isn't a bug, as I can reproduce it. So there is something wrong with your math. Sorry. But that rounding issues if fixed now and wasn't a big deal...

[arallmuus]

wasn't a big deal...

It is indeed not something that will make the user to get rich overnight however the rounding issues are giving player an edge over 30 % and that is indeed a big deal .Also that considering your site has an investment feature than it means investor is getting -EV which serves as a bad reputation for your site.

Your action of being hostile towards someone who give you a heads up also disgraced dooglus' calculation about this issue also is a bad publicity for your site and now people will think twice about investing on your site. In other words you have dug your own grave and it will be just a matter of time before more people read this thread

P.S : are you going to give Substrata the bounty for finding this flaw of your site?

[tsoPANos]

that wasnt the intention at the very beginning, but it is now. I've said it multiple times before in the thread, I will be contacting the site after dooglus's confirmation.

I just confirmed that the site in question does offer +EV bets for the player. In the worst case the edge is 30% for the player.

I fully expect the site to fix this when subSTRATA tells them about it.

I just discovered that I made an error verifying the +EV play.

It isn't a 30% edge for the player in the worst case.

It's a 32.26% edge for the player.

WOW, what an amazing result, subSTRATA you are genius and you have found such a big bug there, I think you profit from the promo like faucet or something, and make advantage from that, IMO it is not an exploit like you said before,  what an amazing result bro.

It seemed that we were wrong and you found a good way to profit, damn cool, if you keep the secret in your heart, you could win a lot, if you sell it, you earn a lot too, what a good deal.    

This one isn't a bug, as I can reproduce it. So there is something wrong with your math. Sorry. But that rounding issues if fixed now and wasn't a big deal...

But you didn't even fix the issues. Pleople are free to steal you money and it's not a big deal!
edit- you seem to have found a cheap method to limit max multiplier to 6500.
6500*0.02%=1.30 wich means 30% edge.
6613*0.02%=1.3226 wich means 32.26% edge
great! Now players can't play with 32.26% edge! How bad! They will need to comromise with only 30%!!!

[joter85]

wasn't a big deal...

It is indeed not something that will make the user to get rich overnight however the rounding issues are giving player an edge over 30 % and that is indeed a big deal .Also that considering your site has an investment feature than it means investor is getting -EV which serves as a bad reputation for your site.

Your action of being hostile towards someone who give you a heads up also disgraced dooglus' calculation about this issue also is a bad publicity for your site and now people will think twice about investing on your site. In other words you have dug your own grave and it will be just a matter of time before more people read this thread

P.S : are you going to give Substrata the bounty for finding this flaw of your site?

Hostile? We offered him bounty, but he was to greedy to take it. We are small site and don't have huge profit, so we can't afford to reward everyone that says he found a bug, and doesn't want to tell us about it if we don't pay....

For this 32% issue or whatever it is impossible to reproduce, so you are wrong at some point, not sure where.

[joter85]

that wasnt the intention at the very beginning, but it is now. I've said it multiple times before in the thread, I will be contacting the site after dooglus's confirmation.

I just confirmed that the site in question does offer +EV bets for the player. In the worst case the edge is 30% for the player.

I fully expect the site to fix this when subSTRATA tells them about it.

I just discovered that I made an error verifying the +EV play.

It isn't a 30% edge for the player in the worst case.

It's a 32.26% edge for the player.

WOW, what an amazing result, subSTRATA you are genius and you have found such a big bug there, I think you profit from the promo like faucet or something, and make advantage from that, IMO it is not an exploit like you said before,  what an amazing result bro.

It seemed that we were wrong and you found a good way to profit, damn cool, if you keep the secret in your heart, you could win a lot, if you sell it, you earn a lot too, what a good deal.    

This one isn't a bug, as I can reproduce it. So there is something wrong with your math. Sorry. But that rounding issues if fixed now and wasn't a big deal...

But you didn't even fix the issues. Pleople are free to steal you money and it's not a big deal!

I have checked almost all scenarios from that table and all have the same result. And I trust my simulator more than I trust your math

[joter85]

I have checked almost all scenarios from that table and all have the same result. And I trust my simulator more than I trust your math

You are the worst sort of idiot. You can't compute basic probability, but are so confident. I thought that anyone exploiting your site, would be obviously detecting (making thousand of bets at a high multiplier) but apparently even when you are told the bug you are too daft to comprehend it. He probably could've bled your bankroll dry and you wouldn't never realized.

As a community service, share the code of your simulator and I'll bug-fix it for you. It's quite obviously wrong

Look you idiot, tell me all parameters that he used and I will check.

But if you bet on payout 3968
And roll under 0.3

You don't make any profit at all in 100 million bets. But if I am missing a parameter that you didn't tell me then it's a different story.

[Wendigo]

Someone should contact the high-rollers on primedice or elsewhere to check out your site and see who is right and who is wrong in the end  

[tsoPANos]

Totally aggreed!
Sadly I am away from my main pc right now.
Hopefully someone will do it.

[joter85]

Someone should contact the high-rollers on primedice or elsewhere to check out your site and see who is right and who is wrong in the end  

Look we are not talking about who is right or not. But if you don't tell me all parameters you used you are just wasting my time. Or you can't do math right.

[subSTRATA]

http://www.statisticshowto.com/how-to-calculate-expected-value-in-statistics/
http://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-an-Expected-Value
http://statistics.about.com/od/Formulas/a/What-Is-The-Formula-For-Expected-Value.htm

[Emerge]

Right now, as for the EV bug, the main issue here is how unprofessional the admin reacted.
Though, there seems to be another bug as stated by subSTRATA

And by the way, joter is not the owner of the site. IIRC Kewl owns the site.

And as for subSTRATA extorting it out of joter, I wouldn't really see it as extortion,
since strata never threatened the man in the first place lol

[joter85]

Right now, as for the EV bug, the main issue here is how unprofessional the admin reacted.
Though, there seems to be another bug as stated by subSTRATA

And by the way, joter is not the owner of the site. IIRC Kewl owns the site.

And as for subSTRATA extorting it out of joter, I wouldn't really see it as extortion,
since strata never threatened the man in the first place lol

And who are you? Do you know us? lol

Ok I will quit this thread, and kewl will join soon. Bye.

[joter85]

Look you idiot, tell me all parameters that he used and I will check.

But if you bet on payout 3968
And roll under 0.3

You don't make any profit at all in 100 million bets. But if I am missing a parameter that you didn't tell me then it's a different story.

What a moron. I did, along with the precise maths. What more do you want:

Taking the most extremely wrong one:

0.02% chance of 6613x

That's a 0.0002 chance of a profit of 6612, and a (1-0.0002) chance of a profit of -1

Or:  0.0002 * 6612 + (1-0.002)*-1 = 0.3244

...a players advantage of 32.44%

And BTW you are wrong

But as you are smart enough you can tell everyone on primedice to take a look. They are welcome!

[galbros]

I have checked almost all scenarios from that table and all have the same result. And I trust my simulator more than I trust your math

I realize you are justifiably proud of your site which looks very nice and no one likes to be threatened with "I have an exploit give me coins" of which I'm sure you get many.  However, if dooglus says there is a problem, there is a problem.  

Is it possible that dooglus was doing something with his bets, or seed, or other doogmagic^TM that you are not putting into your simulation?

After all, you didn't detect the rounding bug until it was pointed out.  Fortunately, the % bets needed to be made were such low probability that it was still a high variance outcome to exploit the player's EV advantage.

You've already graciously offered a 1 BTC reward maybe stick with that as things unfold.

Regardless good luck to you and your site and kudos again to substrata for finding the rounding error.

[joter85]

I have checked almost all scenarios from that table and all have the same result. And I trust my simulator more than I trust your math

I realize you are justifiably proud of your site which looks very nice and no one likes to be threatened with "I have an exploit give me coins" of which I'm sure you get many.  However, if dooglus says there is a problem, there is a problem.  

Is it possible that dooglus was doing something with his bets, or seed, or other doogmagic^TM that you are not putting into your simulation?

After all, you didn't detect the rounding bug until it was pointed out.  Fortunately, the % bets needed to be made were such low probability that it was still a high variance outcome to exploit the player's EV advantage.

You've already graciously offered a 1 BTC reward maybe stick with that as things unfold.

Regardless good luck to you and your site and kudos again to substrata for finding the rounding error.

Only error that we had reproduce is rounding error. The other one is just error in your math. Over and out.

[Emerge]

Right now, as for the EV bug, the main issue here is how unprofessional the admin reacted.
Though, there seems to be another bug as stated by subSTRATA

And by the way, joter is not the owner of the site. IIRC Kewl owns the site.

And as for subSTRATA extorting it out of joter, I wouldn't really see it as extortion,
since strata never threatened the man in the first place lol

And who are you? Do you know us? lol

Ok I will quit this thread, and kewl will join soon. Bye.

Well, as by the looks of how you handle things, you sound like Kewl's bitch

[arallmuus]

wasn't a big deal...

It is indeed not something that will make the user to get rich overnight however the rounding issues are giving player an edge over 30 % and that is indeed a big deal .Also that considering your site has an investment feature than it means investor is getting -EV which serves as a bad reputation for your site.

Your action of being hostile towards someone who give you a heads up also disgraced dooglus' calculation about this issue also is a bad publicity for your site and now people will think twice about investing on your site. In other words you have dug your own grave and it will be just a matter of time before more people read this thread

P.S : are you going to give Substrata the bounty for finding this flaw of your site?

Hostile? We offered him bounty, but he was to greedy to take it. We are small site and don't have huge profit, so we can't afford to reward everyone that says he found a bug, and doesn't want to tell us about it if we don't pay....

I believe he is not that "greedy" merely doing some negotiation to increase the bug bounty , which is everyone will do considering 32 % house edge is a major flaw in your site and thats cause you to lose in long term if anyone finds out about this. Whats more is that you are losing your investor as well in this case because it is -Ev for them

For this 32% issue or whatever it is impossible to reproduce, so you are wrong at some point, not sure where.

Im not sure that do you even understand whats +EV means? Basically you dont need to run a simulation or whatsoever because you just need a simple math for it. If you dont trust this math, I wonder how do you able to code this site on the first hand.
Also some advice for you, if someone like dooglus pointed that there is a flaw in your code then there is a flaw with it since he never claim anything without proper math or test

P.S : you havent answered my question, will you give substrata his bounty? He had posted his address if you are not aware of it yet