Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

I think the gold/silver bugs have already been in and out of bitcoin in the last insane bubble. Just my two cents.

I feel bitcoin will need a huge boost in buyers to take it to the next moon phase. Coupled with significant MACRO events of the tail event variety to take it to the moon. Commenters bring up good points  on role of bitcoin and/or gold in such an economic environment. Question is when?

Two commenters also have a 'middle ground' analysis.

Long with caution, limited upside dependent on price threshold. Else, bear resumes till next attempt to bounce off bottom

I agree. A crazy macro event could potentially lead to an influx of cash. Part of me would rather the world muddles along though! (I don't think it will)

Everything thing i come across seems to point to a MACRO event (even from Gold perspectives). This makes sense for me. Like what Jim Rickards was talking about on the video i linked to earlier. All that coupled with the fact that Bitcoin itself is a tail event/black swan/anti-fragile and it makes for a delectable moon landing

[Afrikoin]

Look at EMAs on 6h charts - 200, 100, 50, 30. Reasonable targets for short term and on whether uptrend holds. Watch price action highlighted levels

[Afrikoin]

Same with Moving averages

[Afrikoin]

End of Bear Trend?

[Afrikoin]

Maybe 1 more, after this dip of the toe. 4.

[Afrikoin]

Jack Damn ‏@JackDamn 4m4 minutes ago

For $GLD (fiat gold), the Bulls need to reclaim 110.00 & 115.00. Bears need to break 104.00 & 102.28

[bigtimespaghetti]

It does rather look like GLD will be resuming it's slow grind decline. Should be a bottom soon eg in the coming half year or so imo, give or take a few months.

[Afrikoin]

It does rather look like GLD will be resuming it's slow grind decline. Should be a bottom soon eg in the coming half year or so imo, give or take a few months.

Yeah. TPTB_need_war forecasted these a while back. On Martin Armstrong thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.new;topicseen#new

[bigtimespaghetti]

It does rather look like GLD will be resuming it's slow grind decline. Should be a bottom soon eg in the coming half year or so imo, give or take a few months.

Yeah. TPTB_need_war forecasted these a while back. On Martin Armstrong thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.new;topicseen#new

I follow TPTB and MA too, my opinion is heavily influenced by their opinion and a few other people I know and follow.

[Afrikoin]

It does rather look like GLD will be resuming it's slow grind decline. Should be a bottom soon eg in the coming half year or so imo, give or take a few months.

Yeah. TPTB_need_war forecasted these a while back. On Martin Armstrong thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.new;topicseen#new

I follow TPTB and MA too, my opinion is heavily influenced by their opinion and a few other people I know and follow.

mind sharing? (the rest who you follow)?

[Afrikoin]

Interesting comment from /u/slowmoon from /r/BitcoinMarkets

So here we are here four years after 2011 when we envisioned how bitcoin would start rapidly expanding to take over black markets, international trade, remittances, e-commerce, etc. and it's just not happening and it's not scaling the way we thought it would scale. Companies like Bitpay are realizing that very few people are using bitcoin for e-commerce. They can't hire and expand like they thought they could.

So this is kind of a back-to-the-drawing-board time in bitcoin's life. Bitcoin is software and we can change it, but first we have to admit that we're in trouble. We don't have a million users. I don't care how many accounts Coinbase says they have. (Let's check http://www.bitcoinpulse.com , oh wait...) We have a few hundred thousand users at the most and most of us are primarily speculating. If more actual use doesn't emerge soon and the world's economy slows down more, then the speculators will sell this thing into the ground. Gold, oil, iron ore, and every other "hard asset" took beatings when China's market was crashing a week or two ago. What does that tell you? It tells me that hard-assets are not seen as safe havens this time around. (Let's be generous and assume bitcoin is a safe hard-asset.)

The only thing that did well was the dollar. That tells me that the dollar is going to be king this time around. At least for a while. If the dollars and US stocks soar against everything again like they did in the late 1990s and emerging markets crash because they can't pay or collect on their dollar denominated debt, that's when sub-$100 bitcoin becomes possible. Because when rich Chinese whales and miners find that their apartments in Shanghai have crashed 65% in value, they aren't going to be playing (gambling) with bitcoin anymore. They're going to get serious about trying to survive the economic shitstorm. Bitcoin will bottom with everything else as capital races to quality (USA).

[bigtimespaghetti]

It does rather look like GLD will be resuming it's slow grind decline. Should be a bottom soon eg in the coming half year or so imo, give or take a few months.

Yeah. TPTB_need_war forecasted these a while back. On Martin Armstrong thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.new;topicseen#new

I follow TPTB and MA too, my opinion is heavily influenced by their opinion and a few other people I know and follow.

mind sharing? (the rest who you follow)?

A guy who I have deep respect for (and is an online acquaintance) is someone called Don Harrold. He does a terrible job of promoting himself (also self admitted), especially since he stopped uploading youtube videos. I will ask him for a link to his paid service/s and post it here for anyone interested (which amount to market picks and also some tutorials for relative newbs like myself) which is a video service. Honestly, some of his number work and data analysis is incredibly concise. He doesn't boast, but he has a knack for timing market turning points.

Related to Don is a stock picker sorry more like a commentator, known as Panama Orange, who always has interesting views (he's on twitter and stocktwits). I follow some blogs as well but none as intently as Don. I follow a few guys who all are part of the 'alt' media circles that also have been interviewed by Don over the years too.

HitTheBid (youtube channel) is also interesting and entertaining from a market perspective- he's a bit in your face and intense though.

I'll admit to enjoying listening to Michael Norman too, for something a little more mainstream. I've been meaning to learn more about Mike Stathis too.

Hope you find some of that interesting

[Afrikoin]

"Channels or trendlines aren't the be all end all of technical analysis, so this 'breakout' isn't guaranteed to drive BTC to 1000+, that's a lofty target. I see it hitting 250-268 and then reversing again."

IvanLabrie

[Afrikoin]

Matthew says

"Bitcoin hit our target of $246 and is now falling. I expect an impulsive drop to $226.43 then a 3 wave upward correction. That will be my signal to go short targeting below $150."

[Afrikoin]

Matthew says

 "Waiting for a 3 wave upward recovery before shorting. My SL will be at $246.51"

[Afrikoin]

"Gavin Andresen on Twitter: Most important content from #ScalingBitcoin"

Scaling Bitcoin Day 1 - Afternoon Session Wrap-up

Great video, must watch for this community https://youtu.be/G6PnLSH40lQ

Interesting point about 'community life cycyle' << another variable in the price of bitcoin in future. Like, its only been 6.7 years and lifestyles are 13? or 20?

[Afrikoin]

/u/Mutt7 on /r/bitcoin

"Very good point. Right now, Bitcoin is seen as pretty useless to most people. That's mostly because they don't understand it. They don't understand its decentralized nature and that their fiat currencies can have capital controls in place to prevent them from accessing their money (similar to what happened in Greece) or even bail-ins.

Who knows, maybe nothing will ever come of this experiment that is Bitcoin. But I'd be so mad at myself seeing the potential and miss out on what could be the greatest investment opportunity of my generation."

[Afrikoin]

Almost every one is waiting for a killer app for bitcoin to take it mainstream. Or mass adoption to take bitcoin mainstream.

Perhaps, a crisis of money and the financial system will be the killer app AND mass adoption that bitcoin needs to go mainstream.

[Fakhoury]

/u/Mutt7 on /r/bitcoin

"Very good point. Right now, Bitcoin is seen as pretty useless to most people. That's mostly because they don't understand it. They don't understand its decentralized nature and that their fiat currencies can have capital controls in place to prevent them from accessing their money (similar to what happened in Greece) or even bail-ins.

Who knows, maybe nothing will ever come of this experiment that is Bitcoin. But I'd be so mad at myself seeing the potential and miss out on what could be the greatest investment opportunity of my generation."

I highly doubt that my friend (the bold part).

And in context to what you are posting about, this is worth a read :

Brazil cuts spending and raises taxes

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34252951

[Afrikoin]

/u/Mutt7 on /r/bitcoin

"Actually, I think Bitcoin will be successful when the global markets collapse and Bitcoin is seen as a digital gold. Everything else is just the cherry on top.

How long do you think before that happens? A few months/years?"