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Author Topic: Can gambling be profitable in long term ?  (Read 112243 times)
Heutenamos
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November 28, 2015, 06:12:03 AM
 #821

After all the discussions here and one still confused or didn't sure about what's the 'better' answer of the thread title
There is none, you cant generalize gambling in any way,every gambler is different and has different luck .

yo
GannickusX
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November 28, 2015, 11:33:32 AM
 #822

After all the discussions here and one still confused or didn't sure about what's the 'better' answer of the thread title
There is none, you cant generalize gambling in any way,every gambler is different and has different luck .

Well it's simple.

Gambling games with negative house edge (-EV) will not be profitable in the long term

Gambling games without house edge can be profitable in the long term

Gambling games with positive house edge (+EV) I doubt they exist but they would be profitable too.
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November 29, 2015, 08:06:34 AM
 #823

For an example of a better strategy, try:

  bet 0.5 at 33%
  if you win, you get 99/33 = 3x, so you get 1.5 back, a profit of 1 - you've doubled your money

  if you lose, bet the other 0.5 at 24.75%
  if you win, you get 99/24.75 = 4x, so you get 2 back - you've doubled your money

  the only way it goes wrong is if you lose both the 33% and the 24.75% - the chance of that is (1-0.33) * (1-0.2475) = 0.504175
  so the chance of success is 1 - 0.504175 = 0.495825 = 49.5825% - a fraction higher than 49.5

I also seen something about a single martingale sequence being better than going all in on a certain % How does this exactly happened, if your chances are 49.5% how are you actually able to improve them, slightly. Is the math on casinos not perfect when calculating odds and results?

I gave an example of how the chance of doubling up can be higher than 49.5% - check the bold number in the quoted text.

It's nothing to do with imperfect calculations, it's a true effect. The strategy I outlined has a chance of doubling up that is closer to 49.6% than it is to 49.5%.

The trick is to risk less on average. If you always bet your whole bankroll on a single event, you expect to lose 1% of it all. If you sometimes double it up without having to bet it all, on average you risk less than all of it, and so expect to lose 1% of less than all of it.

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michinzx
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November 29, 2015, 08:26:17 AM
 #824

Nothing is impossible if you gamble in gambling. You can win or lose everytime.
And it all depends from you if do you have skill in gambling. Possible profitable in long term.
skill isnt a factor in most gambling games, take dice for example, there is absolutely nothing even remotely close to skill involved in pressing a button for a high or low bet. there is skill involved in some pvp games however, such as poker, and to an extent, blackjack. very few can maintain a winning trend over a long period of time however.
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November 29, 2015, 08:31:16 AM
 #825

For an example of a better strategy, try:

  bet 0.5 at 33%
  if you win, you get 99/33 = 3x, so you get 1.5 back, a profit of 1 - you've doubled your money

  if you lose, bet the other 0.5 at 24.75%
  if you win, you get 99/24.75 = 4x, so you get 2 back - you've doubled your money

  the only way it goes wrong is if you lose both the 33% and the 24.75% - the chance of that is (1-0.33) * (1-0.2475) = 0.504175
  so the chance of success is 1 - 0.504175 = 0.495825 = 49.5825% - a fraction higher than 49.5

I also seen something about a single martingale sequence being better than going all in on a certain % How does this exactly happened, if your chances are 49.5% how are you actually able to improve them, slightly. Is the math on casinos not perfect when calculating odds and results?

I gave an example of how the chance of doubling up can be higher than 49.5% - check the bold number in the quoted text.

It's nothing to do with imperfect calculations, it's a true effect. The strategy I outlined has a chance of doubling up that is closer to 49.6% than it is to 49.5%.

The trick is to risk less on average. If you always bet your whole bankroll on a single event, you expect to lose 1% of it all. If you sometimes double it up without having to bet it all, on average you risk less than all of it, and so expect to lose 1% of less than all of it.
why not go again with the same 0.5 on 16.50 % and then get the double profit .Smiley
edit: I see the chance would decrease then ..0.42  something.
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November 29, 2015, 11:48:10 AM
 #826

I think what it's not possible in roulette and casino games, but i think you can do it with blackjack.
GannickusX
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November 29, 2015, 03:00:28 PM
 #827

For an example of a better strategy, try:

  bet 0.5 at 33%
  if you win, you get 99/33 = 3x, so you get 1.5 back, a profit of 1 - you've doubled your money

  if you lose, bet the other 0.5 at 24.75%
  if you win, you get 99/24.75 = 4x, so you get 2 back - you've doubled your money

  the only way it goes wrong is if you lose both the 33% and the 24.75% - the chance of that is (1-0.33) * (1-0.2475) = 0.504175
  so the chance of success is 1 - 0.504175 = 0.495825 = 49.5825% - a fraction higher than 49.5

I also seen something about a single martingale sequence being better than going all in on a certain % How does this exactly happened, if your chances are 49.5% how are you actually able to improve them, slightly. Is the math on casinos not perfect when calculating odds and results?

I gave an example of how the chance of doubling up can be higher than 49.5% - check the bold number in the quoted text.

It's nothing to do with imperfect calculations, it's a true effect. The strategy I outlined has a chance of doubling up that is closer to 49.6% than it is to 49.5%.

The trick is to risk less on average. If you always bet your whole bankroll on a single event, you expect to lose 1% of it all. If you sometimes double it up without having to bet it all, on average you risk less than all of it, and so expect to lose 1% of less than all of it.

Yes but it shouldn't I mean casinos calculate the % of win chance and then the outcome, if you have 50% chance you get double money and so on. I thought they might have not calculated every % and every outcome perfectly.
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November 29, 2015, 08:24:45 PM
 #828

It can be profitable but it depends of game if you are betting on lotteries with millionaire jackpot prize if you got the exact digit and got the jackpot price
You will be millionaire and its profitable than you play on dice or poker etc..

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November 29, 2015, 08:38:11 PM
 #829

To make a living out of it, you need a lot of skill and expertise.

I am sure some people had some 'wins' but that's all. It's not lucrative for them.

Only if you have the balls and skill set you should try it on a full time basis.
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November 29, 2015, 09:01:14 PM
 #830

it takes someone who is very patient, and extremely intelligent, to be a long time winner in gambling. the house always wins!!!  Wink
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November 29, 2015, 10:02:38 PM
 #831

it takes someone who is very patient, and extremely intelligent, to be a long time winner in gambling. the house always wins!!!  Wink

Offcourse the house wins most of the time. Else whom would pay for their security guards, staff etc.

It is the gamblers offcourse
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November 29, 2015, 10:35:33 PM
 #832

If you are an expert and skilled and have some cash you could make a fortune.

if you are and expoert and skilled you could also lose a fortune. In a way it is luck and spending a fortune on luck is not my cup of tea.
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November 29, 2015, 10:48:48 PM
 #833

If you are an expert and skilled and have some cash you could make a fortune.

if you are and expoert and skilled you could also lose a fortune. In a way it is luck and spending a fortune on luck is not my cup of tea.

Some gamblers are really pro. They know when to bet, how to bet and also when to stop.

They can make and are making a living out of it.
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November 29, 2015, 10:55:51 PM
 #834

If you are an expert and skilled and have some cash you could make a fortune.

if you are and expoert and skilled you could also lose a fortune. In a way it is luck and spending a fortune on luck is not my cup of tea.

Some gamblers are really pro. They know when to bet, how to bet and also when to stop.

They can make and are making a living out of it.
Right, but this depends on the game. You can make a fortune with some games but not all.  Long term profitability depends on strategy, patience, the game and several other factors.

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November 30, 2015, 03:14:38 AM
 #835

If you are an expert and skilled and have some cash you could make a fortune.

if you are and expoert and skilled you could also lose a fortune. In a way it is luck and spending a fortune on luck is not my cup of tea.

Some gamblers are really pro. They know when to bet, how to bet and also when to stop.

They can make and are making a living out of it.
Right, but this depends on the game. You can make a fortune with some games but not all.  Long term profitability depends on strategy, patience, the game and several other factors.

Nope, this is not depends on the game. Most people are having a  big winning only in poker games. I guess the rest is just for having fun, poker games need skills and some luck to get pretty good hand to win. And long term in a dice game wont give you any good result there so choose well which game you are going to play in long run
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November 30, 2015, 08:22:35 AM
 #836

It can be if played properly
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December 02, 2015, 12:50:53 PM
 #837

It can be if played properly

Well knowledge is certainly a key in it, the proper way on playing many gambling site is knowing what to do and when to stop in gambling, you will need luck, knowledge, and a keen self awareness Grin
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December 02, 2015, 01:28:44 PM
 #838

I think you can. but maybe you need big bankroll and play smart. If i have big bankroll i will do it more safely and play smart.
my last long bet is around 5bitcoins win from 0.5btc. it's quiet big for me and because greedy i lose it all.
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December 02, 2015, 01:29:02 PM
 #839

I think it can definitely be profitable if you keep up with all your winnings and losses.

That way you can actually see if you're winning more than you're losing.

This is for the frequently gamblers of course.

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December 02, 2015, 01:49:57 PM
 #840

If someone which follows the set of rules and be discipline enoff. Can people make 50-100 $ a day just gambling in online casino.....?

Short answer is no they will never make $100 a day over the long run unless of course they are diddling the site.

You may make $300 one day but get excited and do it all the next day plus any savings you had leading upto that.

If you are an expert and skilled and have some cash you could make a fortune.

if you are and expoert and skilled you could also lose a fortune. In a way it is luck and spending a fortune on luck is not my cup of tea.

Not mine either, I used to class my self as skilled winning around 30btc in my first 6months of gambling after studying bankroll management. It soon got the better of me though and ended up losing a big chunk of that. I stopped most gambling but still play and win at poker.

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